Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set for the next six months [5][15]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 31.82 billion yuan and a net profit of 13.74 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2% and 2% respectively [2][4]. - The company plans to maintain a cash dividend ratio of no less than 65% for 2024, increasing to 70% and 75% in subsequent years, with an absolute amount not less than 8.5 billion yuan [1][2]. - The company is focusing on digital transformation and has implemented six strategic shifts to enhance operational efficiency and product offerings [2][4]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.35 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.59 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.78% and 0.41% respectively [1][2]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 86.51%, while the net profit margin was 49.11%, indicating slight declines compared to the previous year [2][4]. - The company’s operating cash flow decreased by 24.12% year-on-year to 3.31 billion yuan [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for the company is projected to grow to 31.82 billion yuan in 2025, with further increases to 33.70 billion yuan in 2026 and 36.41 billion yuan in 2027 [4][9]. - The net profit is expected to reach 13.74 billion yuan in 2025, with projections of 14.62 billion yuan in 2026 and 15.89 billion yuan in 2027 [4][9]. Valuation Metrics - The company is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.04 for 2023, which is expected to decrease to 11.70 by 2027 [4][9]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decline from 4.49 in 2023 to 3.11 in 2027 [4][9]. - The enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 13.52 in 2023 to 6.97 in 2027 [4][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 31.196 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.473 billion yuan, up 1.71% year-on-year [2][4][10]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported total revenue of 6.893 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.86% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.88 billion yuan, down 29.86% year-on-year [2][4][10]. - For Q1 2025, total revenue was 9.352 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.78%, with a net profit of 4.593 billion yuan, up 0.41% year-on-year [2][4][10]. - The company’s mid-to-high-end liquor revenue in 2024 was 27.585 billion yuan, an increase of 2.77% year-on-year, while other liquor revenue was 3.467 billion yuan, up 7.15% year-on-year [10]. - The company has announced a three-year dividend plan, with a payout ratio of no less than 65%, 70%, and 75% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a minimum total dividend of 8.5 billion yuan (including tax) [10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 was 31.196 billion yuan, with a net profit of 13.473 billion yuan [2][10]. - Q4 2024 showed a significant decline in revenue and profit compared to the previous year [2][10]. - Q1 2025 demonstrated a slight recovery in revenue and profit [2][10]. Product and Channel Analysis - Mid-to-high-end liquor sales contributed significantly to revenue growth, while other liquor categories also saw positive growth [10]. - Traditional channels generated 29.573 billion yuan in revenue, up 3.2% year-on-year, while emerging channels contributed 1.479 billion yuan, an increase of 4.16% [10]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for 2024 decreased by 0.63 percentage points to 43.19%, and the gross margin fell by 0.76 percentage points to 87.54% [10]. - In Q1 2025, the net profit margin further declined by 0.67 percentage points to 49.11% [10]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain stable growth, with projected EPS of 9.44 yuan and 10.03 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 13.3 and 12.5 times [10].

——五粮液 2024&25Q1 业绩点评 投资要点 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 白酒Ⅱ 五粮液(000858) 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 05 日 25Q1 业绩略超预期，关注改革三重抓手 其他酒产品收入 152.51 亿元（同比+11.79%），毛利率 60.81%（同比 +0.65pct），销量/吨价同比变动+0.12%/+11.65%，其他酒吨价提升主要系五粮浓 香公司持续向中高价位产品聚焦，低价位产品生产量、销售量减少所致。 ❑ 发力 C 端构建渠道网络体系，核心终端及专卖店显著增加 24 年经销收入 487.38 亿元（同比+5.99%），直销收入 343.89 亿元（同比 +12.89%），直销占比达 41.37%（同比+1.52pct）。24 年五粮液/五粮浓香经销商 数量同比增加 82/245 个，专卖店数量同比增加 124 个，单个经销商平均规模同 比下降 3.35%。公司进一步淡化传统渠道铺货手段，转向依托提升直销比例+搭 建平台公司推进团购发力 C 端。24 年新增核心终端 1.6 万家，推动终端网点扩容 提质；直营渠道"三店一家"建设成效明显，新增 138 家专卖店、5 家 ...

食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 泸州老窖（000568.SZ） 主动调控，着眼长远 2025 年 05 月 05 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 123.74 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 197.71/98.92 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,821.39 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,818.17 | | 总股本(亿股) | 14.72 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 14.69 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 44.97 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -64% -48% -32% -16% 0% 16% 32% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 泸州老窖 沪深300 相关研究报告 《收入增速行业前列，盈利能力持续 提升—公司信息更新报告》-2024.5.5 | 张宇光（分析师） | 逄晓娟（分析师） | 张恒玮（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | zhangyuguang@kysec.cn | pangxiaojuan@kysec.cn | zhanghengwei@kysec.cn ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 白酒Ⅱ 五粮液(000858) 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 05 日 25Q1 业绩略超预期，关注改革三重抓手 ——五粮液 2024&25Q1 业绩点评 投资要点 其他酒产品收入 152.51 亿元（同比+11.79%），毛利率 60.81%（同比 +0.65pct），销量/吨价同比变动+0.12%/+11.65%，其他酒吨价提升主要系五粮浓 香公司持续向中高价位产品聚焦，低价位产品生产量、销售量减少所致。 ❑ 发力 C 端构建渠道网络体系，核心终端及专卖店显著增加 24 年经销收入 487.38 亿元（同比+5.99%），直销收入 343.89 亿元（同比 +12.89%），直销占比达 41.37%（同比+1.52pct）。24 年五粮液/五粮浓香经销商 数量同比增加 82/245 个，专卖店数量同比增加 124 个，单个经销商平均规模同 比下降 3.35%。公司进一步淡化传统渠道铺货手段，转向依托提升直销比例+搭 建平台公司推进团购发力 C 端。24 年新增核心终端 1.6 万家，推动终端网点扩容 提质；直营渠道"三店一家"建设成效明显，新增 138 家专卖店、5 家 ...

股票简称：海南椰岛 股票代码：600238 编号：2025-012 号 二、酒类销售渠道情况 三、酒类销售区域情况 海南椰岛（集团）股份有限公司 2025 年第一季度经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 根据《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第3号—行业信息披露》之《第 十二号—酒制造》的相关规定，现将海南椰岛（集团）股份有限公司2025年第一 季度酒类主要经营数据（未经审计）公告如下： 一、酒类产品销售情况 | 产品档次 | 2025 年一季度 销售收入 | | 2024 年一季 度销售收入 | 同比（%） | 主要代表品牌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 鹿龟酒系列 | | 336.75 | 355.91 | -5.38 | 鹿龟酒 | | 海王酒系列 | 2,692.36 | | 2,661.81 | 1.15 | 海王酒 | | 白酒系列 | | 81.38 | 274.89 | -70.40 | 椰岛·国威系列、贵台酱酒系列、 椰岛海 ...

证券代码：600809 证券简称：山西汾酒 公告编号：临 2025-013 山西杏花村汾酒厂股份有限公司 2025年第一季度经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承 担法律责任。 一、主要经营情况 1.按产品分类情况 注：因汾酒的销售收入占公司整体销售收入比例较高，为充分反映主营产品的实际 销售情况，将产品分类情况划分为汾酒和其他酒类。 2.按销售渠道分类情况 1 单位：万元 币种：人民币 产品种类 2025 年 1-3 月 销售收入 2024 年 1-3 月 销售收入 增减变动幅度（%） 汾酒 1,621,155.12 1,497,908.89 8.23 其他酒类 26,820.27 31,738.04 -15.49 合计 1,647,975.39 1,529,646.93 7.74 单位：万元 币种：人民币 渠道类型 2025 年 1-3 月 销售收入 2024 年 1-3 月 销售收入 增减变动 幅度（%） 代理 1,562,274.43 1,413,479.32 10.53 直销、团购、电商平台 85,700. ...

事件: 2025 年4 月27 日，古井贡酒发布2024 年报及2025 年一季报。2024年公司实现营业总收入235.78 亿元， 同比+16.41%；归母净利润55.17亿元，同比+20.22%；扣非归母净利润54.57 亿元，同比+21.40%。 2025Q1公司实现营业总收入91.46 亿元，同比+10.38%；归母净利润23.30 亿元，同比+12.78%；扣非归 母净利润23.12 亿元，同比+12.78%。 投资要点: 盈利预测和投资评级：公司设定2025 年目标为：营业总收入较上年度实现稳健增长。我们认为公司基 本面经营稳健，产品结构有望持续升级，年份原浆系列产品预计将延续较快增长。我们调整公司盈利预 测， 预计公司2025-2027 年营业收入分别为259.83/286.85/319.27 亿元，归母净利润分别为 61.63/68.59/75.92亿元，EPS 分别为11.66/12.98/14.36 元，对应PE 分别为15/13/12X，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：1）消费力下行抑制行业需求；2）宏观经济大幅波动；3）行业政策发生变化；4）营销工作 执行效果不达预期；5）价格改革的市场 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][15] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve total operating revenue of 311.96 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.19% [3] - The gross profit margin and net profit margin for 2024 are projected to be 87.54% and 43.19%, respectively, showing slight declines compared to the previous year [3] - The company plans to maintain a cash dividend of 65% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, with a total cash dividend of 87.58 billion yuan in 2024 [3][8] Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2024, the company reported total operating revenue of 68.93 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.86% year-on-year [4] - The company achieved a net profit of 18.80 billion yuan in Q4 2024, down 29.86% year-on-year [4] - The sales revenue for 2024 is expected to be 400.36 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.74% [3] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor is projected to be 275.85 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.77% [5] - The company anticipates a total of 315.76 billion yuan in revenue for 2025, with a growth rate of 1.22% [9][11] Profitability Forecast - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 134.73 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth of 1.71% [11] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 9.23 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.61 [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][15] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve total operating revenue of 31.196 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.19% [3] - The company aims for steady growth in revenue for 2025, with projected revenues of 31.576 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 1.22% [9] - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with a target of at least 65% of net profit distributed as dividends [8] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company anticipates a gross profit margin of 87.54% and a net profit margin of 43.19%, with slight declines from the previous year [3] - In Q4 2024, the company reported a total operating revenue of 6.893 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.86% year-on-year [4] - The company achieved a significant increase in cash receipts, totaling 40.036 billion yuan for the year, up 26.74% year-on-year [3] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company expects revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor to reach 27.585 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.77% [5] - The company reported a total of 1,701 domestic distributors and 85 overseas distributors by the end of 2024, showing a slight decrease in numbers [5] Earnings Forecast - The company projects net profit for 2025 to be 13.585 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.83% [11] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 9.23 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.61 [11]