Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry, particularly the leading company Wuliangye, is undergoing a significant adjustment period, facing unprecedented challenges and a slowdown in growth, with 2024 showing only single-digit increases in revenue and net profit [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Wuliangye achieved revenue of 89.175 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, and a net profit of 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44% [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 36.94 billion yuan, growing 6.05%, and net profit of 14.86 billion yuan, increasing 5.80% [1]. - The company's revenue growth has reached historical lows, failing to meet the initial double-digit growth targets [1][2]. Market Position and Competition - Wuliangye's performance is lagging behind its competitor Moutai, which reported revenue of 170.899 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 15.71%, nearly double that of Wuliangye [4]. - The net profit margin for Wuliangye in 2024 was 37.22%, down 0.63 percentage points, while the sales expense ratio increased significantly to 11.99% [4]. Investor Sentiment - Institutional holding in Wuliangye has decreased from 79.26% in 2020 to 73.52% in the first three quarters of 2024, indicating cautious sentiment among professional investors [4]. - The company's market capitalization has dropped by over 500 billion yuan from its peak four years ago, with a current price-to-earnings ratio of around 15 times, significantly lower than its peers [4]. Dividend Policy - Wuliangye announced a record cash dividend of 22.3 billion yuan for 2024, with a payout ratio of 70%, exceeding the average A-share dividend rate of 30% [5]. - Despite the high dividend, market reaction has been muted, with the stock price remaining low [5]. Product and Channel Challenges - Wuliangye faces challenges in product structure and pricing, with a significant increase in promotional expenses, which rose by 49% to 6.76 billion yuan [4][6]. - The company reported a 5.99% increase in revenue from its distribution channels and a 12.89% increase from direct sales channels in 2024 [9]. Inventory and Supply Issues - As of the end of 2024, Wuliangye's inventory reached 18.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.86%, reflecting broader industry inventory challenges [9][11]. - The overall inventory crisis in the liquor industry has surpassed 1 trillion yuan, with significant overproduction issues [11]. Strategic Initiatives - Wuliangye has implemented a "only reduce, not increase" strategy to stabilize pricing, which has shown some short-term success [12]. - The company is attempting to diversify its product offerings to attract younger consumers, but current revenue from these initiatives remains low [14]. Future Outlook - The liquor industry is transitioning from "scale expansion" to "value cultivation," with Wuliangye's challenges reflecting broader structural adjustments within the industry [17]. - The company holds significant cash reserves and a commitment to dividends, providing a buffer for its transformation efforts [18].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a favorable investment outlook for the liquor industry, particularly recommending to capitalize on the emotional recovery opportunities in the liquor sector and to return to performance fundamentals [1][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights that recent media coverage indicates a correction in overly strict regulations on social dining, which is expected to positively impact the liquor sector outside of official receptions. This, combined with low overall valuations, suggests that the industry is nearing a bottom, making it a good time to invest in leading companies [1][15]. - The beer segment is also noted for potential growth driven by seasonal demand and structural growth in key products [1][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of new consumption trends and suggests monitoring high-growth categories in the second half of the year for valuation switching opportunities [1][15]. Summary by Sections Core Company Tracking - **Wuliangye**: The company remains optimistic despite challenges, with a potential increase in the dividend payout ratio for 2025. The focus is on maintaining a balance between volume and price, with a notable 24% increase in banquet sessions in the first half of 2025 [2][10]. - **Shui Jing Fang**: The management team is stable, and the company plans to expand its store count significantly, with a focus on emotional marketing strategies [2][11]. - **Shede Liquor**: Inventory levels have been adjusted to a reasonable range, and the company is focusing on product and channel expansion, particularly in lower-priced offerings for rural markets [2][12]. - **Bairun Co.**: The company has launched a new series of single malt whiskies, showcasing its innovative capabilities in the domestic whiskey market [3][12]. - **Youyou Foods**: The company is rapidly expanding its membership and bulk sales channels, with a strong performance in new product launches [3][12]. - **Guai Bao Pet**: The brand has seen significant growth in its product lines, particularly in high-end segments, and is expected to continue expanding into overseas markets [3][13]. - **Haitian Flavor Industry**: The company has successfully listed its H shares, raising approximately 10.01 billion HKD [3][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that are innovating with new products and channels, such as Youyou Foods, New Dairy, Bairun Co., and Ximai Foods [4][15]. - It also suggests investing in companies that are likely to benefit from improved seasonal sales, including Qingdao Beer, Zhujiang Beer, and Nongfu Spring [4][15]. - In the pet food sector, companies like Zhongchong Co. and Guai Bao Pet are highlighted for their growth potential [4][15]. - Defensive stocks such as Yili and Mengniu are recommended due to their stable performance and low valuations [4][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company expresses a commitment to progress despite challenges in the environment, with an expectation of increased dividends [7]. - The company aims to balance volume and price, with strong performance in the banquet market and a focus on innovative marketing strategies [7]. - The report forecasts EPS for 2025-2027 at 8.59, 9.02, and 9.44 CNY, respectively [1][7]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 83,272 million CNY in 2023 to 102,105 million CNY in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 5% [2][13]. - Operating profit is expected to increase from 42,004 million CNY in 2023 to 50,870 million CNY in 2027, maintaining a growth rate of around 5% [2][13]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 30,211 million CNY in 2023 to 36,661 million CNY in 2027, with a consistent growth rate of 5% [8][13]. Key Financial Ratios - The report indicates a projected PE ratio decreasing from 15.4 in 2023 to 12.7 in 2027, suggesting improving valuation attractiveness [14]. - The company maintains a healthy ROE of 22.1% as of the latest data, indicating strong profitability [3][14]. - The debt-to-asset ratio is projected to remain low, around 23.3% in 2023, reflecting a solid financial position [3][14].

Core Viewpoint - Wuliangye held an online performance briefing for 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, focusing on dividend distribution, stock buyback, product competition, and sales performance, as well as revenue targets and strategic layout for the year [4][5][17]. Dividend and Share Buyback - Wuliangye plans to distribute a cash dividend of 31.69 yuan per 10 shares in 2024, totaling 12.3 billion yuan, with a total dividend amount reaching 22.3 billion yuan, resulting in a dividend rate of 70%, the highest since its listing [5][17]. - The company has distributed dividends 24 times, with a total amount of 116.4 billion yuan, which is 31 times the funds raised since its listing [5][6]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.922 billion yuan, a decline of 6.17% year-on-year, marking the first drop since 2013, attributed to increased market expenses and incentives for distributors and consumers [8][10]. - For Q1 2025, Wuliangye reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 15.849 billion yuan, a significant increase of 2970.31% year-on-year, and contract liabilities reached 10.17 billion yuan, up 101.42% [10][17]. Product Competition and Sales - Wuliangye's eighth-generation product saw a 21% year-on-year increase in sales on e-commerce platforms like JD and Tmall, establishing a price stability advantage in the 1,000 yuan price range [4][11][13]. - The company has implemented a controlled pricing strategy for its eighth-generation product, resulting in sustained market price increases and low social inventory [13][14]. Strategic Outlook - Wuliangye aims to achieve its 100 billion yuan target for the 14th Five-Year Plan by adapting to market changes and focusing on sustainable growth [15][16]. - The company plans to expand its market share among younger consumers by introducing products with lower alcohol content and modern packaging [18]. - Wuliangye is also focusing on developing mid-tier products and enhancing its brand matrix to capture market demand effectively [19].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set for the next six months [7][17]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 891.75 billion CNY and a net profit of 318.53 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.09% and 5.44% respectively [1]. - The cash dividend payout ratio for 2024 is projected to be 70%, an increase of 10 percentage points compared to the previous year [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 369.40 billion CNY and a net profit of 148.60 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth of 6.05% and 5.80% respectively [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is expected to generate 831.27 billion CNY in liquor revenue, with a gross margin of 82.21%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The revenue from Wuliangye liquor products is projected to be 678.75 billion CNY, with a gross margin of 87.02%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.38 percentage points [2]. - The overall liquor growth is primarily driven by price increases, with a volume growth of 1.81% and a price increase of 6.81% year-on-year [2]. Channel and Sales Insights - In 2024, the revenue from distribution and direct sales channels is expected to be 487.38 billion CNY and 343.89 billion CNY respectively, with year-on-year growth of 5.99% and 12.89% [2]. - The number of total distributors for Wuliangye has increased to 2,652, up by 82 from the previous year, indicating a growth in distributor scale by 2.71% [2]. Profitability Analysis - The gross margin and net profit margin for 2024 are projected to be 77.05% and 35.72% respectively, with a slight decrease in net profit margin by 0.56 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Operating cash flow is expected to decrease by 18.69% year-on-year to 339.40 billion CNY [3]. Future Projections - The company anticipates revenue growth of 5.3%, 6.0%, and 6.8% for the years 2025 to 2027, reaching 939 billion CNY, 995 billion CNY, and 1,062 billion CNY respectively [4]. - Net profit is projected to grow by 5.1%, 6.7%, and 7.6% for the same period, reaching 335 billion CNY, 357 billion CNY, and 384 billion CNY respectively [4].

Core Viewpoint - Wuliangye reported a total revenue of 89.175 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in profit growth to a new low in recent years due to industry adjustments and intensified market competition [1] Brand Operations - Wuliangye continued to enhance brand influence through a multi-pronged strategy, maintaining stable prices for its core product, the eighth generation Wuliangye, and launching new products to enrich its product matrix [4] - The company achieved over 20 billion exposures through participation in major events like the CCTV Spring Festival Gala and the Paris Olympics, expanding brand visibility [4] - However, sales expenses exceeded 10 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 10.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.2%, with promotional expenses rising by 48.9%, indicating that high sales costs did not translate into proportional profit growth [4] Channel Layout - Wuliangye continued to optimize and expand its channel layout, adding 16,000 core terminals and increasing the number of direct sales stores to over 1,700 [4] - Online sales accounted for over 10% of total sales, with 18 million members attracted through online activities [4] - Despite these efforts, the rolling month-on-month revenue growth was only 0.59%, and net profit showed a decline of 1.41%, suggesting limited effectiveness of channel expansion amid weak market demand [5] Future Outlook - The company aims to focus on quality improvement, layout optimization, and deepening reforms to achieve stable growth in 2025, but faces significant growth pressure due to deep industry adjustments and increased competition [6] - Contract liabilities reached 11.69 billion yuan at the end of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 70.3%, indicating some performance reserves for the first quarter of 2025 [6] - Maintaining market share and profitability during the industry adjustment period will be a major challenge, requiring the company to find a new balance in brand innovation, channel optimization, and cost control [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Wuliangye is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates resilient operating performance and is actively pursuing channel reforms, which supports the "Buy" rating [5] - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 89.175 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.1%, while net profit is expected to reach 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.4% year-on-year [5][9] - The company is expected to maintain a stable gross margin, with a slight decline in net profit margin due to increased promotional expenses [8] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 21.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, with net profit of 6.92 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year [5] - For Q1 2025, revenue is expected to be 36.94 billion yuan, up 6.1% year-on-year, with net profit of 14.86 billion yuan, an increase of 5.8% year-on-year [5] - The company forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 32.85 billion, 34.90 billion, and 37.32 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.1%, 6.2%, and 6.9% [5][9] Revenue and Profitability Metrics - The company's revenue for 2024 is expected to be 89.175 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 77.1% and a net margin of 37.2% [9][13] - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 75.9%, while the net profit margin is expected to be 36.7% for 2025 [9][13] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 8.46 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.2 [9][13] Product Performance - Wuliangye's product revenue for 2024 is expected to reach 67.88 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, driven by strategic products [6] - The company has made significant investments in strategic products such as 1618 and low-alcohol beverages, contributing to revenue growth [6] Cash Flow and Financial Stability - Sales cash receipts for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 increased by 3.2% year-on-year to 62.24 billion yuan, aligning with revenue performance [7] - As of Q1 2025, the company's contract liabilities decreased by 1.52 billion yuan to 10.17 billion yuan, maintaining a historically high level [7]

食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 五粮液（000858.SZ） 2025 年 05 月 02 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 128.70 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 178.76/106.33 | | 总市值(亿元) | 4,995.63 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 4,995.44 | | 总股本(亿股) | 38.82 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 38.81 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 32.17 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 五粮液 沪深300 相关研究报告 《业绩稳健增长，彰显品牌韧性—公 司信息更新报告》-2024.9.1 《业绩稳健，核心矛盾明显改善—公 司信息更新报告》-2024.5.3 开局状态良好，渠道酝酿积极变化 ——公司信息更新报告 | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 89.18 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 31.85 billion, up 5.44% year-on-year [1] - For Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 21.26 billion, a 2.53% increase year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 6.17% to 5.87 billion [1] - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 36.94 billion, growing 6.05% year-on-year, with net profit at 14.86 billion, up 5.80% [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 31.7 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, totaling 22.3 billion, with a payout ratio of 70% [1] Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for the liquor segment in 2024 was 83.13 billion, an 8.74% increase, with Wuliangye liquor revenue at 67.88 billion, up 8.07% [3] - The average price per ton of liquor was 1.64 million, a 0.94% increase year-on-year [3] - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 was 37.2%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points, primarily due to increased sales expenses [4] Cash Flow and Financing - Operating cash flow for 2024 was 33.94 billion, down 18.7% year-on-year, attributed to reduced cash receipts from sales and increased tax payments [5] - In Q1 2025, operating cash flow surged to 15.85 billion, a dramatic increase of 2970.3% year-on-year, driven by a higher cash collection ratio [5] - The company’s accounts receivable financing at the end of 2024 was 19.57 billion, an increase from the previous year [5] Market Position and Strategy - The company aims to consolidate and enhance its stable growth, focusing on brand value and market share improvement, aligning revenue growth with macroeconomic indicators [1][2] - The company continues to be the leading brand in the thousand-yuan price segment, with strong brand power and ongoing reforms expected to drive stable growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a steady growth in revenue and net profit for 2024, with total revenue reaching 89.175 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44% year-on-year, meeting market expectations [1] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 36.940 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.05%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.860 billion yuan, up 5.80% year-on-year, slightly exceeding market expectations [1] - The company's gross profit margins for 2024 and Q1 2025 were 77.05% and 77.74%, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.26 percentage points for 2024, attributed to high-priced products driving growth [7] Contract Liabilities - As of the end of 2024 and Q1 2025, the company's contract liabilities were 11.690 billion yuan and 10.166 billion yuan, respectively, showing significant improvement both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, indicating better dealer sentiment and market control [2] Product Performance - The company's flagship product, Wuliangye, generated revenue of 67.875 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 8.07%, while other liquor products achieved revenue of 15.251 billion yuan, up 11.79% year-on-year [3] - The sales volume of Wuliangye products increased by 7.06% year-on-year, while the average price per ton rose by 0.94% [3] Market Management - The company restructured its marketing strategy by consolidating 27 marketing districts into three major regions, enhancing market management capabilities and improving operational efficiency [4] - Revenue by region for 2024 showed the Eastern region at 31.290 billion yuan (+9.75%), Southern region at 39.336 billion yuan (+12.65%), and Northern region at 12.501 billion yuan (-3.98%) [5] Sales and Distribution - The company increased its number of Wuliangye brand distributors to 2,652 by the end of 2024, with a net increase of 82 distributors, primarily in the Eastern region [5] - Direct sales channels continued to grow rapidly, with a year-on-year increase of 12.89%, supported by the establishment of new specialty stores and cultural experience stores [5] Shareholder Returns - The company announced a shareholder return plan for 2024-2026, committing to a cash dividend of no less than 70% of the annual net profit, with a minimum total dividend of 20 billion yuan [8] Investment Outlook - The company aims for a revenue growth of around 5% in 2025, with adjustments made to profit forecasts for 2025-2026, reflecting a more cautious market outlook [9]