公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 五粮液（000858）1218 共商共建共享大会点评 强推（维持） 补贴渠道，份额优先 目标价：215 元 事项： 公司召开 1218 共商共建共享大会，会上公司交流理性坦诚，客观总结 2025 年 成果与不足，对 26 年进行规划和部署，同时发布马年生肖酒新品。我们前往 参会并点评如下： 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 89,175 | 72,234 | 72,533 | 77,794 | | 同比增速(%) | 7.1% | -19.0% | 0.4% | 7.3% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 31,853 | 23,507 | 23,882 | 26,317 | | 同比增速(%) | 5.4% | -26.2% | 1.6% | 10.2% | | 每股盈利(元) | 8.21 | 6.06 | 6.15 | 6.78 | | 市盈率(倍) | 13 | 18 | 1 ...

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 报告原因：有信息公布需要点评 投资要点： ⚫ 事件：公司近期召开 2025 年 1218 经销商大会。 | | 2024 | 2025Q1-3 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 89,175 | 60,945 | 75,766 | 75,999 | 82,021 | | 同比增长率（%） | 7.1 | -10.3 | -15.0 | 0.3 | 7.9 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 31,853 | 21,511 | 26,595 | 26,718 | 29,094 | | 同比增长率（%） | 5.4 | -13.7 | -16.5 | 0.5 | 8.9 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 8.21 | 5.54 | 6.85 | 6.88 | 7.50 | | 毛利率（%） | 77.1 | 74.9 | 75.8 | 75.7 | 76.3 | | ROE（%） | 23.9 | 15.1 | 19.6 ...

12月18日，以"新形势 新机遇 新征程"为主题的五粮液第二十九届12·18共识共建共享大会在宜宾召开。 五粮液股份公司党委副书记、副董事长、总经理华涛在现场总结了五粮液2026营销工作，并解读了2026 年五粮液营销工作思路。 在新兴渠道方面，包括重点建设团购渠道、拓展异业合作渠道、拓宽线下直销渠道。 华涛介绍，2025年，第八代五粮液坚持2025年五粮液主品牌营销运营更加科学有效。其中第八代五粮液 坚持量价平衡原则，实施"阶段性"激励政策；低度五粮液宴席场次、宴席开瓶量均实现30%以上增长； 1618产品开瓶扫码率提升至59%，宴席活动同比增长20%以上；"一见倾心"上市两个月销售强势破亿。 此外，2025年五粮液深耕细作拓展渠道网络，渠道力进一步提升。其中传统渠道持续优化，新增474 家"三店一家"，终止运营不佳客户合作55家；电商渠道持续深化，着力优化电商供应结构，深化与京东 战略合作，集中走访7家头部平台，新品发布主要平台，上线240家即时零售门店。 公司新兴渠道持续发力，与企业级客户合作建立直销网络，开展"名酒进名企"，实现销售收入45亿元， 团拜企业数4000余家，销售转化率70%，动销9亿元， ...

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is at a crossroads, transitioning from traditional models to new consumer-driven approaches, focusing on value, experience, and connection [2] Group 1: Value Restructuring - The evolution of liquor consumption in China reflects changes in the national economy and social psychology, transitioning through three main stages: 1.0 (basic sustenance), 2.0 (social currency), and currently 3.0/4.0 (quality and self-enjoyment) [2][3][4] - The current phase emphasizes personal experience and health consciousness, with a significant young population (approximately 400 million aged 14-35, accounting for 28.35% of the total) driving this shift [4] Group 2: Multi-Dimensional Empowerment - The industry consensus has shifted from "who controls the channel wins" to "who captures the youth wins," indicating a marketing and operational transformation towards a user-centered approach [5] - Consumption is evolving from social symbols to emotional companions, with younger consumers preferring lower-alcohol beverages for a relaxed experience, valuing "heart price" and "emotion price" over mere status [5][6] - Product innovation is focusing on health, flavor diversity, and convenient packaging, breaking traditional taste barriers [7][8] - The rise of instant retail is meeting the demand for immediate satisfaction, with significant growth in online sales during promotional events [9] - Social drinking scenarios are diversifying, moving from formal gatherings to casual settings like parties and festivals, with brands leveraging social media for engagement [10][11] Group 3: Systemic Breakthrough - The new era of liquor consumption is characterized by consumer sovereignty, driven by information equality and diverse choices, with competition extending beyond the liquor industry to other beverage categories [12] - Companies need to innovate across multiple dimensions, including product offerings, channel strategies, and brand building, to create a cohesive competitive advantage [13][14] - Successful companies will be those that accurately address the core needs of health and self-enjoyment while implementing systematic innovations in products, channels, and branding [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The integration of tea and alcohol is emerging as a significant trend in the beverage industry, driven by the demand for "micro-drunk" experiences among younger consumers, leading to innovative product offerings and cross-industry collaborations [5][6][46]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The Guizhou Provincial Department of Commerce has issued a draft guideline to promote the transition from "selling alcohol" to "selling lifestyle," emphasizing the integration of alcohol and tea products to expand cross-industry consumption markets [2][3]. - The trend of alcohol and tea fusion is not new, with both alcohol and tea companies seeking growth opportunities through innovative product combinations [5][6]. - The younger demographic is increasingly becoming the main consumer group for alcohol, prompting companies to innovate beyond traditional high-alcohol products to attract this audience [8][49]. Group 2: Product Innovations - Major alcohol brands are launching lower-alcohol or non-alcoholic products to cater to younger consumers, with examples including Moutai's introduction of over ten youth-oriented products at a recent trade fair [12][18]. - The collaboration between Luckin Coffee and Moutai to launch the "Sauce Aroma Latte" achieved remarkable sales, with over 5.42 million cups sold on the first day, generating over 100 million yuan in revenue [28][30]. - New tea drinks incorporating alcohol, such as "Drunken Steps" by Tea Baidao and "Lychee Ice Brew" by Grandpa's Tea, have also gained popularity, indicating a growing acceptance of alcohol-infused beverages [32][39]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market for low-alcohol beverages is expanding, with data showing that fruit wine accounts for 38% of instant retail channels, growing at 72% annually, while tea and alcohol combinations account for 25%, growing at 65% [54][55]. - Health consciousness among consumers is influencing the beverage market, with a significant percentage of consumers expressing concerns about the health impacts of traditional tea drinks, leading to a demand for healthier options [60][61]. - The fusion of tea and alcohol is seen as a strategic move to address the challenges faced by both industries, allowing them to meet consumer demands for "micro-drunk" experiences while ensuring health considerations are met [63].

Core Insights - The low-alcohol trend in the Chinese liquor industry is gaining momentum, with major brands launching new low-alcohol products, indicating a significant shift in consumer preferences [1][4][8] Market Dynamics - The low-alcohol market is projected to exceed 74 billion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 25%, significantly outpacing the overall liquor industry growth [4] - The generational shift in consumer demographics is a key driver of this growth, as younger consumers show a preference for low-alcohol beverages [4][5] Consumer Preferences - A survey by Wuliangye revealed that only 19% of young consumers aged 20-35 favor traditional liquor, compared to 52% for beer and 29% for other alcoholic beverages [5] - Over 60% of young consumers prefer low-alcohol options, rejecting the strong taste of high-alcohol liquor [6] Changing Consumption Scenarios - Traditional consumption settings are evolving, with home drinking (50%) and outdoor activities (56% annual growth) becoming more popular, shifting the perception of alcohol from a social tool to a personal enjoyment [7] Technological Challenges - The production of low-alcohol liquor involves complex technical challenges, as reducing alcohol content can disrupt the balance of flavor compounds, leading to a bland taste if not managed properly [9][10] - Wuliangye's research on their 29-degree product highlighted the need for precise control of flavor components to maintain quality [11] Brand Strategies - Major brands are leveraging their existing brand equity to introduce low-alcohol products, while regional brands are creating independent brands to capture market share [13][14] - The 38-degree Guojiao 1573 has become a significant revenue source for Luzhou Laojiao, indicating the effectiveness of established brands in the low-alcohol segment [13] Channel Innovations - Instant retail is emerging as a crucial channel for low-alcohol beverages, with significant growth in categories like fruit wine (38% share, 72% growth) and tea wine (25% share, 65% growth) [16] - Data from Meituan indicates a dramatic increase in sales, with overall liquor sales reaching over 3 billion yuan in just 12 hours during promotional events [17] Cultural Context - Regardless of alcohol content, the essence of liquor remains tied to emotional, cultural, and social experiences, emphasizing that low-alcohol is not the ultimate solution but a response to evolving consumer needs [18][19]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry has entered a "new product competition" phase in 2025, with 13 companies launching nearly 60 new products this year, particularly concentrated in August and September before the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival [1][2] Group 1: New Product Launch Strategy - The timing of new product launches aligns with the traditional consumption calendar, maximizing brand exposure and allowing for sufficient channel preparation [2] - Companies are adopting a "precision strike" strategy, focusing resources on key products during peak sales windows, as evidenced by Guizhou Moutai's significant sales growth in August and September [2][3] - The successful trial sales of "Zhenjiu Dazhen" indicate a positive market response, with 100,000 boxes sold across 30 provinces and a revenue of 370 million yuan [2] Group 2: Price Polarization - The product landscape shows a clear polarization, with high-end products like Moutai's commemorative liquor priced at 7,000 yuan and 3,788 yuan, while the mid-range segment remains underrepresented [3][4] - Nearly half of the new products launched this year are priced below 500 yuan, indicating a downward shift in the industry's pricing focus [3][4] - The dual strategy of elevating brand value while penetrating the mass market reflects the industry's response to current consumer segmentation trends [4] Group 3: Cross-Industry Expansion - Companies are exploring "low-alcohol" and "non-alcoholic" products to attract younger consumers and meet health-conscious demands [5][6] - Moutai's "Youmi" brand and other companies are introducing a variety of low-alcohol beverages, targeting diverse consumer scenarios such as home drinking and social gatherings [5][6] - The low-alcohol market is projected to exceed 74 billion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 25%, highlighting its potential as a significant growth area for liquor companies [6]

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of low-alcohol liquor is a long-term trend in the industry, but it is not expected to rapidly become a mainstream market segment [2][4][22]. Demand Matching - Low-alcohol liquor faces challenges in matching consumer preferences, particularly in the low-end market where consumers prefer higher alcohol content, typically above 40 degrees [3][5]. - The mid-range market, targeting middle-class consumers, struggles to meet quality-price ratios, as low-alcohol options often fail to match established quality benchmarks [7]. Market Constraints - The high-end market has shrunk due to anti-corruption measures, limiting the consumption scenarios for low-alcohol liquor, which requires strong brand leadership to penetrate this segment [8][12]. - Technical barriers exist in producing low-alcohol liquor that maintains desirable flavor profiles and stability, which hinders rapid market growth [9][10]. Market Maturity Timeline - The transition to low-alcohol liquor as a mainstream choice will take 3-5 years, requiring significant industry investment in consumer education and brand development [12][22]. - Competition from other low-alcohol beverages poses a challenge, necessitating differentiation in flavor and style [12]. Lack of Market Leadership - The absence of strong benchmark brands in the low-alcohol segment limits its growth potential, as seen in previous successful market trends [13][15]. Consumer Perception Issues - Misconceptions equating low alcohol content with low value hinder the market's growth, necessitating a shift in consumer perception [15][22]. - The marketing of low-alcohol liquor is challenged by the decline of traditional retail channels, requiring direct engagement with consumers [15][22]. Industry Resistance - Internal resistance within companies to shift focus from high-alcohol to low-alcohol products complicates market entry and expansion [19][22]. - Regulatory standards regarding alcohol content restrict the development of low-alcohol products, impacting market dynamics [19]. Strategic Recommendations - Companies should focus on steady development rather than chasing fleeting trends, ensuring alignment with consumer maturity and market conditions [22][24]. - Targeting the mid-range market (100-300 yuan) is crucial for breaking into the low-alcohol segment, with strategies to gradually expand into higher and lower markets [23]. - Collaboration with light bottle liquor can enhance market competitiveness and broaden consumer appeal across different segments [25].

Core Viewpoint - Wuliangye, once a leader in the liquor industry, is at a crossroads as it seeks to regain market share lost to Moutai by targeting the low-alcohol segment and appealing to younger consumers [1][4]. Industry Dynamics - The liquor industry has seen a shift in focus from high-end products to mid-range and mass-market offerings, with Shanxi Fenjiu leveraging strategic investments to achieve national expansion and enter the top three [3]. - Moutai has established a strong brand barrier through consistent price increases and has maintained its position at the top of the industry since surpassing Wuliangye in 2013 [3]. Company Performance - Wuliangye's revenue and net profit growth rates have slowed, with 2025 mid-year reports showing revenue growth at 4.19% and net profit growth at 2.28%, indicating a closing window to catch up with Moutai [3]. Strategic Initiatives - In response to industry changes, Wuliangye is focusing on low-alcohol products and the younger market, launching a 29-degree product named "Yijian Qingxin" that utilizes AI technology for taste balancing and features a modern design [4]. - The new product, priced at 399 yuan for a 500ml bottle, has sparked debate about whether young consumers will embrace it as a "liquor craft" [4]. Challenges and Opportunities - The transition to lower alcohol content may risk altering the traditional liquor profile, with concerns about potential quality degradation [4]. - Wuliangye's strategic shift aims to address generational consumption changes and create new market opportunities between high-end products and younger consumers [4][5].

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is experiencing a dual drive of consumption recovery and structural upgrades, leading to a pronounced trend of "the strong getting stronger and increased differentiation" [2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, 19 A-share listed liquor companies reported a total revenue of 235.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, and a total net profit of 94.39 billion yuan, down 0.92% [2] - The top six liquor companies, including Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, accounted for 89.82% of the total revenue of A-share listed liquor companies, with a combined revenue of 211.25 billion yuan [2][3] - Kweichow Moutai achieved a main revenue of 89.39 billion yuan, while Wuliangye reported 52.77 billion yuan, and Shanxi Fenjiu reached 23.96 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The market share of the top six liquor brands increased from 86.82% in 2022 to 89.82% in mid-2025, indicating a shift from the "80/20 rule" to the "90/10 rule" [4] - Kweichow Moutai's revenue share of the industry increased from 36.37% in 2022 to 38% in the first half of 2025, showcasing its strong brand moat and pricing power [4] - Shanxi Fenjiu has become a notable disruptor in the industry, achieving double-digit growth in revenue and net profit for eight consecutive years, increasing its market share from 7.68% in 2022 to 10.19% in the first half of 2025 [4] Group 3: Industry Challenges and Strategies - The liquor industry is entering a deep adjustment period characterized by policy adjustments, consumption changes, and intensified competition, where stability is deemed more important than growth [5] - Many liquor companies are enhancing promotional efforts, such as Shanxi Fenjiu's strategic branding initiatives through high-profile media appearances and cultural events [5] - The industry is shifting focus towards providing genuine value to consumers, particularly the younger generation, as blind expansion and price increases pose increasing risks [6] Group 4: Consumer Complaints - Consumer complaints in the liquor industry are primarily concentrated in three areas: product quality, marketing irregularities, and consumer experience [8] - Issues related to product quality include the prevalence of counterfeit high-end liquor and deceptive practices surrounding "vintage liquor" [8] - Marketing concerns involve false advertising in live-streaming sales and misleading pricing strategies during promotional events [8]