1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral, with a price range of 16,700 - 17,500 yuan/ton [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain volatile. On the supply side, the production of primary lead is under pressure, and the overall production of secondary lead is also facing challenges. On the consumption side, battery consumption is weak, and the inventory of finished batteries continues to accumulate. In terms of trading strategies, considering the weak supply - demand pattern, shorting volatility can be considered [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspect: Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, and Position - **Price and Spread** - The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 16,865 yuan/ton with a weekly decline of 1.35%, and the closing price of the overnight session yesterday was 16,940 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.44%. The price of LmeS - Lead 3 last week was 2,096.5 with a weekly increase of 3.02% [7] - LME lead basis was - 45.87, a decrease of 1.31 compared to the previous week; the premium of bonded lead remained unchanged at 95; the spot premium of Shanghai 1 lead increased by 20 to 45; the spread between secondary lead and primary lead increased by 75 to - 50 [7] - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract increased by 335 to 275; the cost of near - month to first - continuous inter - period arbitrage was 59.77 [7] - The spot import profit and loss of lead was - 658.93, a decrease of 76.80 compared to the previous week; the 3M import profit and loss of SHFE lead was - 623.95, a decrease of 127.41 compared to the previous week [7] - **Inventory** - SHFE lead warrant inventory increased by 1,452 to 29,418; SHFE total lead inventory increased by 1,233 to 30,584; social inventory increased by 1,600 to 36,100; LME lead inventory decreased by 9,600 to 205,575, and the proportion of cancelled warrants decreased by 4.00% to 9.06% [7] - **Transaction and Position** - The trading volume of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 122,859, an increase of 85,430 compared to the previous week, and the position was 56,480, a decrease of 8,714 compared to the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 was 10,642, an increase of 5,448 compared to the previous week, and the position was 142,000, an increase of 6,194 compared to the previous week [7] 3.2 Lead Supply: Lead Concentrate, Waste Battery, Primary Lead, and Secondary Lead - **Lead Concentrate** - The import volume, actual consumption, and domestic output of lead concentrate showed different trends in different years. The inventory of lead concentrate at Lianyungang also fluctuated over time [24] - The import TC and domestic TC of lead concentrate showed certain price ranges. The smelting profit of lead concentrate processing also changed over time [26][27] - The operating rate of lead concentrate showed different levels in different years [28] - **Primary Lead and Secondary Lead** - The production and weekly operating rate of primary lead and the combined production of primary and secondary lead, as well as the production and operating rate of secondary lead, all showed different trends in different years [30] - The by - product output of silver and the price of 1 silver, as well as the price of 98% sulfuric acid in East China, also had their own trends [32][33][34] - **Waste Battery and Secondary Lead** - The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost of secondary lead, and the profit and loss of secondary lead all changed over time [35][36][37] - **Import and Export** - The net import of refined lead, the monthly import volume of Chinese lead ingots, the import profit and loss of lead, and the export volume of lead ingots showed different trends in different years [39] 3.3 Lead Demand: Lead - Acid Battery and Terminal - **Battery** - The operating rate of lead - acid batteries, the monthly finished product inventory days of lead - acid battery enterprises and dealers, as well as the export volume of batteries, showed different trends in different years [43] - **Consumption and Terminal** - The actual consumption of lead, the monthly output of automobiles, and the monthly total output of motorcycles showed different trends in different years [45]

沪铅震荡偏弱延续 基本面变化 加工费：2025年12月铅精矿进口量约14.9万吨，环比增加35.8%，同比增加24.63%。铅矿进口量连续两个月环比走高，不过国内 冬季铅精矿市场需求高涨，国内矿端紧张格局紧张延续，SMM显示国内外铅精矿加工费低位进一步回落。2月国内月度加工200- 300元/吨，月度环比下降50元/吨；进口月度加工费位-160--140美元/干吨，月度环比下降5美元/干吨。现货加工费方面，国内 铅矿周度加工费为200-300元/吨，周度环比下降50元/吨；进口周度加工费为-160--140美元/干吨，周度环比下降5美元/干吨。 供应：SMM显示：2025年12月原生铅产量为33.27万吨，环比增加1.56%，同比增加1.56%，当月产量高于预期；2025年12月再生 精铅产量为26.84万吨，环比减少9.35%，同比增加0.83%。上周SMM三省原生铅冶炼厂开工率66.85%，周环比下滑0.19%。河南地 区开工稳定，个别小厂产量边际波动；湖南地区此前粗铅检修的冶炼厂生产恢复后电解铅产量小幅提产至稳定生产。另一冶炼 厂粗铅检修后电解铅产量周度下滑，但暂未完全停产；云南地区冶炼厂生产维持稳定； ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the supply and demand of lead are both weak, and the low domestic inventory provides some support. The Shanghai lead price may continue to show a volatile trend. Later, as the pressure of imported lead increases and inventory is expected to stop falling and rise, the upward pressure on lead prices will gradually increase. Attention should be paid to the production dynamics of recycled lead and downstream demand [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Changes - Processing Fees - In November 2025, China imported 110,000 tons of lead concentrate in physical quantity, a year - on - year increase of 15.8% and a month - on - month increase of 11.7%. The import volume was higher than the average in recent years. The domestic lead concentrate market demand was high in winter, and the domestic mine supply shortage continued. The domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees remained stable at a low level. In January, the domestic monthly processing fee was 200 - 400 yuan/ton, flat month - on - month; the imported monthly processing fee was - 160 - - 130 US dollars/dry ton, flat month - on - month. In terms of spot processing fees, the domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 250 - 350 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week; the imported weekly processing fee was - 160 - - 130 US dollars/dry ton, flat week - on - week [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Changes - Supply - In November, the national electrolytic lead production increased slightly, a month - on - month increase of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.61 percentage points; the recycled refined lead production increased by 8.5% month - on - month and 10.13% year - on - year. Last week, the operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was 67.3%, a week - on - week increase of 0.2%. Although there was still a supply gap of lead concentrate, the primary lead production resumed after maintenance, and the operating rate remained at a high level. The weekly operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces was 37.6%, a week - on - week decline of 7.8%. In winter, there were frequent haze days, and environmental protection control potentially restricted the output of recycled lead smelters. The scrapping volume of waste lead - acid batteries decreased, and the tight supply of raw materials was difficult to ease. After the holiday, the price of waste batteries increased slightly, the profit margin of recycled lead enterprises narrowed, and the uncertainty of environmental protection disturbances in winter was relatively large, so the supply of recycled lead remained at a low level. Some enterprises actively reduced production. For example, a medium - sized recycled lead smelter in the southwest region planned to reduce production by 20% - 30% in January to cope with raw material pressure. In terms of imports, the Shanghai - London price ratio improved, the import window for refined lead remained open, and the profit increased [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Changes - Consumption - Last week was a holiday, and many battery enterprises had holidays, so the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises weakened. The automotive battery was approaching the traditional replacement peak season, while the traditional consumption peak season of electric bicycle batteries was coming to an end. At the beginning of the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles, consumers were more cautious, and the production of electric bicycles declined. Coincidentally, some lead - acid battery enterprises had holidays during the New Year's Day holiday, and the weekly operating rate decreased. After the holiday, the terminal consumption was still weak. With relatively strong lead prices, downstream enterprises purchased on demand, the trading volume was relatively limited, the circulation in the spot market was average, and the discount widened slightly [4]. 3.4 Fundamental Changes - Spot - As of the week ending December 31, the domestic lead spot basis discount widened, and the lead spot basis was a discount of 75 yuan last weekend. The LME lead spot remained in a deep discount state, with a discount of - 43.42 US dollars last weekend [4]. 3.5 Fundamental Changes - Inventory - As of the week ending December 31, the LME lead weekly inventory decreased by 6,975 tons to 241,900 tons. The LME inventory had declined for two consecutive weeks from a high level but was still at a high level in recent years; the weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 909 tons to 28,004 tons. As of December 29, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions was 17,400 tons, and the inventory rebounded month - on - month, ending three consecutive months of decline, but it was at an absolute low level in the past four years [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In December, lead prices fluctuated and rebounded. The domestic lead price is near the upper edge of the oscillation range, with high concentration of long - position funds. As the feverish sentiment in precious metals fades, the lead price is expected to be weak in the short term [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: In December, the Shanghai Lead Index rose 1.52% to 17,355 yuan/ton, and the total position increased by 0.92 million lots to 8.61 million lots. The LME 3M lead contract rose 0.98% to $2,005.5/ton, and the total position increased by 0.97 million lots to 17.86 million lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,175 yuan/ton, with a refined - scrap spread of 125 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 13,300 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 95 yuan/ton, and the continuous - contract - to - first - continuous - contract spread was - 40 yuan/ton. Domestic social inventory remained flat at 17,400 tons. - **Overseas Structure**: LME lead ingot inventory was 239,300 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrant was 76,800 tons. The outer - market cash - 3S contract basis was - $37.81/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $99.2/ton. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.231, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 447.26 yuan/ton. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, lead concentrate port inventory was 54,000 tons, and factory inventory was 478,000 tons, equivalent to 32.5 days. The primary smelting start - up rate was 67.11%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. At the recycled end, lead scrap inventory was 89,000 tons, the weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 38,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. On the demand side, the lead - battery start - up rate was 72.84% [11]. 2. Primary Supply - **Imports**: In November 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 109,800 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 15.7% and a month - on - month change of 11.7%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 1,278,500 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.3%. The net import of silver concentrate in November was 180,900 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 26.5% and a month - on - month change of 21.1%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1,686,600 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.2% [15]. - **Production**: In November 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 136,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 0.8% and a month - on - month change of - 6.6%. From January to November, the total production of lead concentrate was 1,531,900 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.4%. In November, the net import of lead - containing ore was 120,000 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 5.1% and a month - on - month change of 1.1%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ore was 1,423,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.4% [17]. - **Total Supply**: In November 2025, China's total lead concentrate supply was 256,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 2.8% and a month - on - month change of - 3.1%. From January to November, the cumulative lead concentrate supply was 2,955,400 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.9%. In September 2025, the global lead ore production was 392,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 2.1% and a month - on - month change of 2.4%. From January to September, the total production of lead ore was 3,402,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.5% [19]. - **Inventory**: At the primary end, lead concentrate port inventory was 54,000 tons, and factory inventory was 478,000 tons, equivalent to 32.5 days [21]. - **Processing Fees**: The lead concentrate import TC was - $145/dry ton, and the domestic lead concentrate TC was 300 yuan/metal ton [23]. - **Smelting Start - up Rate and Output**: The primary start - up rate was 67.11%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. In November 2025, China's primary lead production was 327,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.6% and a month - on - month change of 0.5%. From January to November, the total production of primary lead ingots was 3,514,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.8% [26]. 3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Output**: At the recycled end, lead scrap inventory was 89,000 tons. The weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 38,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. In November 2025, China's recycled lead production was 373,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 16.8% and a month - on - month change of 7.8%. From January to November, the total production of recycled lead ingots was 3,608,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.0% [33]. - **Lead Ingot Trade and Supply**: In November 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 23,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 262.0% and a month - on - month change of 52.6%. From January to November, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 118,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 32.4%. In November, the total domestic lead ingot supply was 723,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 9.9% and a month - on - month change of 5.3%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply was 7,241,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.4% [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - **Lead - Battery Start - up Rate and Apparent Demand**: On the demand side, the lead - battery start - up rate was 72.84%. In November 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 680,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 0.9% and a month - on - month change of - 1.4%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 7,206,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.6% [38]. - **Battery Exports**: In October 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 16.1452 million units, and the net export weight was 84,600 tons. The estimated net export of lead in batteries was 52,900 tons, a year - on - year change of - 15.1% and a month - on - month change of - 12.8%. From January to October, the total net export of lead in batteries was 607,600 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries increased by - 5.0% year - on - year [41]. - **Inventory Days**: In November 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - batteries in factories decreased from 24.5 days to 20.9 days, and the inventory days of lead - batteries in dealers decreased from 41.0 days to 40.7 days [43]. - **Terminal Demand**: - **Two - wheeled Vehicles**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new - installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway improved the new - installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles [47]. - **Automobiles**: The contribution of the automobile sector to lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new - energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid start - up batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles and the high replacement demand support the start - up rate of lead - acid start - up batteries [49]. - **Base Stations**: The rapid development of communication technology has led to an increase in the number of communication base stations and 5G base stations, driving a steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [52]. 5. Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Lead Ingot Balance**: In November 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 70 tons, and the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference from January to November was a shortage of - 8,400 tons [60]. - **Overseas Lead Ingot Balance**: In September 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a surplus of 48,900 tons, and the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand difference from January to September was a surplus of 1,700 tons [63]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic and Overseas Basis and Spread**: SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 13,300 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 95 yuan/ton, and the continuous - contract - to - first - continuous - contract spread was - 40 yuan/ton. LME lead ingot inventory was 239,300 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrant was 76,800 tons. The outer - market cash - 3S contract basis was - $37.81/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $99.2/ton [68][70]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.231, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 447.26 yuan/ton [73]. - **Position Analysis**: The net - long concentration of the top 20 positions in Shanghai lead was high. The LME lead investment fund seats turned net - short, and the net - short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From the position perspective, the short - term guidance is neutral [76].

Report Title - Lead Weekly Report: Low Inventory and Marginal Decrease in Supply Lead to Strong and Volatile Lead Prices [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a supply - demand imbalance. The supply of lead concentrate is tight, with domestic and imported ore markets facing different challenges. The smelting end has both production increases and decreases due to maintenance and other factors. The consumption end, especially the automotive battery sector, has improved. With low inventory and increased smelting costs, short - term lead prices may oscillate strongly in a range. Traders are advised to hold profitable long positions and be cautious of macro - factors, while waiting on arbitrage and options [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Chapter 1: Market and Logic 1.1 Trading Logic and Strategy - **Supply**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee is 300 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported lead concentrate weekly processing fee is - 145 dollars/dry ton. The lead concentrate market is stable, with imported ore remaining tight. There are disputes in the 2026 long - term contract price negotiation. The market circulation of domestic ore is scarce as most smelters have pre - ordered fourth - quarter supplies [4]. - **Smelting**: The SMM three - province primary lead smelter operating rate is 65.92%, a 0.60% week - on - week decline. Some smelters in different regions have production changes due to maintenance. The SMM four - province recycled lead weekly operating rate is 48.37%, a 0.13% decline [4]. - **Consumption**: The SMM five - province lead battery enterprise weekly comprehensive operating rate is 74.46%, a 1.07% week - on - week increase. The automotive battery market has improved due to year - end production targets and approaching peak seasons [4]. - **Inventory**: As of December 4, the SMM lead ingot five - region social inventory is 23,600 tons, a decrease of 11,400 tons from November 27 and 7,100 tons from December 1 [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable long positions and beware of macro - factors; wait on arbitrage and options [4]. 1.2 - 1.5 - These sections list various data related to lead, including futures prices, price spreads, inventory data, and lead industry chain inventory, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [5][8][11][14] 2. Chapter 2: Raw Material End 2.1 - 2.2 Raw Material Supply - Primary - Include data on global and domestic lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, import profits and losses, and domestic lead concentrate total supply and mine operating rates [19][23] 2.3 Raw Material Supply - Recycled - Involve the price of lead - containing waste materials, waste battery prices, and recycled lead smelter raw material inventory [31] 3. Chapter 3: Smelting End 3.1 Global Refined Lead - Covers global refined lead balance, production, and demand [38] 3.2 Domestic Refined Lead Import and Export - Includes import and export profits and losses, volumes, and net exports [45] 3.3 - 3.4 Primary Lead Smelting Enterprise - Involve primary lead smelting enterprise profits, including processing fees, smelting profits, and production data such as operating rates and output [46][49] 3.5 - 3.6 Recycled Lead - Include recycled lead enterprise costs, profits, and supply data such as operating rates and output [52][61] 3.7 Domestic Lead Ingot Supply - Composed of domestic lead ingot total supply, primary lead output, recycled lead output, and refined lead net exports [65] 4. Chapter 4: Demand End 4.1 Lead Battery - Contains lead battery enterprise operating rates, dealer and enterprise finished - product inventory, and import and export volumes [72] 4.2 Lead Alloy and Its Plates - Involve lead alloy prices and import and export data of lead alloys, lead plates, and other lead plates [75] 4.3 - 4.4 Other Demand Areas - Include data on the automotive industry (production, exports, and production structure), and production data of motorcycles, communication construction, and power projects [79][82]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint The lead market remains weak. Although there is a slight de - stocking in domestic inventory in the short term, if the supply of secondary lead continues to increase steadily while the boost from the consumption peak season is limited, social inventory may end the de - stocking trend and start to accumulate again, and the weak decline of lead prices is expected to continue. Attention should be paid to the production dynamics of secondary lead and changes in domestic inventory in the later stage [6]. Summary by Related Content Fundamental Changes - **Processing Fees**: In October 2025, the import volume of lead concentrate was 98,342 tons in physical quantity, a month - on - month decrease of 34.69%. The domestic lead concentrate market demand soared in winter, intensifying the tight supply situation. The domestic monthly processing fee in November was 250 - 350 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 50 yuan; the import monthly processing fee was - 150 - - 100 US dollars/dry ton, a monthly decrease of 10 US dollars. The domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 250 - 350 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the import weekly processing fee was - 150 - - 120 US dollars/dry ton, also unchanged week - on - week [2]. - **Supply**: In October, the national electrolytic lead production decreased slightly, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.56% and a year - on - year increase of 2.66%; the secondary lead production increased significantly, with a month - on - month increase of 9.24% and a year - on - year increase of 11.86%. The average operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces last week was 67.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13%. An eastern region smelter will enter regular maintenance this week, with a relatively limited impact on the electrolytic lead production line. The pressure on the raw material side is prominent, and the operating rate of primary lead will not change much in the later stage. The weekly operating rate of secondary lead in four provinces was 50.52%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.28%. SMM expects the operating rate of secondary lead to continue to increase this week. Recently, the domestic - foreign price ratio has risen, and lead imports have a small profit [3]. - **Consumption**: The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises remained stable last week. The terminal consumption of the lead - acid battery market has not changed significantly recently. The electric bicycle battery market will enter the traditional off - season, and the demand for automobile batteries has recovered but with limited boost. High battery inventory means that battery enterprises have insufficient motivation to increase production significantly in the short term. Whether the seasonal recovery of automobile battery consumption in winter can drive overall inventory reduction remains to be observed. Some enterprises have actively reduced production in November, and major enterprises will maintain the production - based - on - sales model before new orders recover. The spot market atmosphere has declined, lead prices have continued to be weak, and downstream buyers are mostly waiting and watching except for some with rigid demand, resulting in a decline in spot transactions [4][5]. - **Spot**: As of the week of November 21, the domestic lead spot basis fluctuated. The lead spot basis was at a premium of 65 yuan at the end of last week. The LME lead spot remained at a discount, with a discount of - 22.41 US dollars at the end of last week [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of November 21, the LME lead weekly inventory increased by 40,375 tons to 222,900 tons, and the LME inventory has rebounded for two consecutive weeks at a high level; the SHFE lead weekly inventory decreased by 3,869 tons to 38,900 tons. As of November 17, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions was 35,300 tons, with a slight decline but still at an absolute low level in the past four years [5]. Market Outlook and Strategy - Overseas lead supply and demand are relatively loose, with high LME lead inventory and a discounted spot price. The import of lead concentrate decreased significantly in October, and the demand for winter - stored lead concentrate in China is high, intensifying the expectation of tight lead concentrate supply. The production of primary lead is restricted by raw materials, and the operating rate will not change much. The smelting profit of secondary lead enterprises has improved, and the supply of raw materials has improved, but there is still uncertainty in environmental protection disturbances in winter. The domestic - foreign price ratio of lead ingots has risen, and domestic imports have a small profit. The consumption of electric bicycle batteries is weakening, and the terminal consumption of automobile batteries is not strong. Lead prices are weak, and downstream buyers are mostly waiting and watching. In the short term, lead supply recovery is less than expected, and domestic inventory is slightly decreasing. However, if the supply of secondary lead continues to increase steadily while the consumption peak season has limited boost, social inventory may start to accumulate again, and the weak decline of lead prices is expected to continue [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lead is bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - After expected adjustments, the supply - demand contradiction this year is relatively reduced, and the import volume may decline, but the market remains in a tight - balance state. The price center of Shanghai lead futures may rise in the second half of the year, with the reference operating range of 16,100 - 18,500 yuan/ton. Based on the expectation of strong supply and demand, it is recommended to focus on unilateral long - position opportunities for Shanghai lead futures. The monthly spread structure may change from C to B, and it is advisable to pay attention to positive spread arbitrage opportunities. There is also an expectation of intermittent opening of the import window, and an interval - trading approach is recommended [4][123] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - In H1 2025, the price centers of Shanghai and London lead futures were significantly lower than the same period in 2024. In Q1, Shanghai lead showed an inverted V - shaped trend due to supply - demand mismatch around the Spring Festival. In Q2, it dropped sharply due to the US tariff increase, then rebounded as the US dollar weakened and overseas structural risks emerged, along with the anticipation of peak - season demand stocking [15] 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspects - Overseas, the Fed's interest - rate cut path is the core variable, affected by trade protection and geopolitical conflicts. A potential rate cut in Q3 may briefly boost London lead, but the rebound is limited by demand. Trade protection may suppress China's lead export demand. Geopolitical risks may increase external - market volatility. Domestically, policy - driven consumption is crucial for lead demand. Although previous consumption - promotion policies had limited effects, future demand may rely more on policy support. Macroeconomic impacts are reflected in the internal - external price ratio [18][19] 3.3 Primary End 3.3.1 Lead Concentrate - Overseas, Q1 2025 lead - concentrate production was lower than expected, with a year - on - year decline of 1.4 million tons and a quarter - on - quarter decline of 3 million tons. The decline was due to factors like lower ore grades, weather disturbances, and mining difficulties. Although there are expectations of increased production from some mines this year, the overall increment is limited, and there are still risks of disturbances in H2. Domestically, lead - concentrate production increased in H1 2025, and imports were high. The annual production is expected to increase by 5 million tons, and the import growth rate is expected to be around 9%. However, the processing fee (TC) may decline in H2 due to tight overseas supply and trade - flow risks [23][33][34] 3.3.2 Primary Lead - Overseas, from January to April 2025, primary - lead production showed a recovery trend, mainly due to the low base in H1 2024. This year, new primary - smelting capacity is limited, and lead concentrate will mainly be consumed through imports. Domestically, from January to June, primary - lead production increased by 9.7% year - on - year. In H2, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new capacities. The annual production growth rate is expected to be around 2% [50][54][55] 3.4 Secondary End - In 2025, the over - capacity of waste - battery processing has intensified, and new capacities are squeezing traditional ones. Recycling merchants have increased their hoarding and advanced the hoarding time. From January to June, secondary - lead production decreased by 4.4% year - on - year. In H2, although there is an expectation of improved replacement demand, waste batteries will remain in short supply, and secondary - smelter profits will be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the possibility of capacity reduction [62][63][68] 3.5 Demand End 3.5.1 Lead Batteries - In H1, battery - enterprise operations were below expectations. In H2, there may be a phased improvement in consumption. In terms of exports, although there was an improvement in H1, the overall annual export demand is expected to decline by 1% [75][100][104] 3.5.2 Domestic Terminal Demand - For electric two - wheelers, production increased in H1, mainly due to consumption - promotion policies. The new national standard and trade - in policies may stimulate demand, but lithium - battery substitution is a long - term risk. For automobiles, production increased in H1, but export may face pressure in H2, and lithium - battery substitution will also affect lead - battery demand. In the communication - base - station and energy - storage sectors, base - station equipment production decreased, while energy - storage demand was strong, and the lead - consumption growth rate is expected to reach 8% [82][87][92] 3.5.3 Overseas Demand - In 2025, overseas lead demand generally recovered, with an increase in Southeast Asia and a decline in India. China's lead - battery exports decreased in H1, and the annual export volume is expected to be under pressure due to factors such as weak overseas demand, high domestic costs, trade protection, and battery - factory expansion overseas [94][100][104] 3.6 Inventory End - In H1, LME lead inventory was high, indicating weak overseas consumption. Domestically, social inventory was at a relatively low level at the end of June. In H2, social inventory may fluctuate widely, and potential delivery risks should be noted due to tight ore supply. There is also a possibility of the import window opening intermittently, and attention should be paid to interval - trading opportunities based on the internal - external price ratio [108][112][121] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - The supply - demand contradiction is expected to be reduced this year, but the market remains in a tight - balance state. The price center of Shanghai lead futures may rise in H2, with a reference range of 16,100 - 18,500 yuan/ton. Unilateral long - position opportunities for Shanghai lead futures are recommended, as well as positive spread arbitrage opportunities for monthly spreads and interval trading based on the internal - external price ratio [4][122][123]