华泰证券研报指出，华明装备在分接开关行业位居国内第一、全球第二。全球电网投资进入上行周期， 认为公司后续在出海、检修业务与特高压业务的带动下，业绩有望保持快速增长（预计25-27年 CAGR18.7%）。同时，公司在显著的先发优势之下，有望保持国内龙头地位与较高的毛利率水平；同 时依托中国制造产业链优势进一步提升海外市场份额。首次覆盖华明装备并给予"买入"评级，给予公司 26年30.4倍PE，目标价29.5元。 ...

"强大的制造业+理性的房地产"当然是最佳选择，但谁都不是神仙，做不到那么精准。如果自我安慰，中国今天没有走向" 孱弱的制造业+ 泡沫化的房地 说到中国制造，上周我参加第一财经等机构主办的"2025 A股上市公司成长力年会"，有两家公司的故事印象很深刻。 把话说透了，就是我们过去是取得了空前的增长，但也是有代价的。房地产的透支就是代价。现在要还债，而且是一大笔债，当然很辛苦。 在房地产狂飙期，很多人担心房地产会"挤出"制造业。辩证来看，房地产其实也为制造业发展做了不小贡献。因为地方政府为发展制造业，在基础设施、 工业用地、用电、设备投资、厂房建设、用工培训等方面给予了制造企业不少优惠或补贴，帮助其降低了总成本。 而政府不可能只出不进。从哪里进？就是出让商业用地，尤其是通过招投标，高价出让住宅用地。政府在商业用地上的所得，有相当部分用于改善投资环 境和支持制造业。 一家是华明装备，主营业务是变压器的核心组件——分接开关。近年来，AI应用快速普及，全球用电需求激增，缺口巨大，带动电力设备进入上行周 期。美国因为电网更新换代、制造业回流和AI算力扩张，对电力设备更有巨大需求。 从上周""开始写"年终经济观察"，准备写 ...

Group 1: Overseas Business Growth - The company has experienced relatively high overseas growth in the past two years, primarily due to a low base and slight market share increase, but this growth is not sustainable long-term [2][3] - The overseas revenue growth is influenced by demand changes, market share, and base effects, and does not necessarily reflect the overall industry development level [2][3] - The company aims to accelerate its market share in overseas markets, leveraging historical opportunities and improving brand influence [4] Group 2: Market Demand and Sustainability - Different regions exhibit varying growth drivers; for instance, the U.S. market is driven by energy structure transformation and AI, while Europe is influenced by reduced reliance on natural gas due to geopolitical factors [3] - Southeast Asia has significant development needs due to previously weak infrastructure, while the Middle East is focusing on reducing oil dependency and increasing industrialization [3] - The company acknowledges the complexity of overseas market demands and the need for a nuanced understanding of each region's development status [3] Group 3: Sales and Distribution - The company has established local sales teams in key overseas regions and will expand its workforce based on regional business volume [6] - Currently, the company’s overseas sales are largest in Europe, followed by Asia, with growth coming from multiple countries [7] - The ratio of direct to indirect exports is approximately 1:1, with indirect exports growing faster due to overseas transformer capacity constraints [18] Group 4: Competitive Landscape and Product Offering - The company does not see significant differences in product stability and technical parameters compared to competitors, but it has advantages in delivery speed and self-sufficiency of components [23] - The company is focused on maintaining a stable pricing strategy for its products, which aids in long-term business development [16] Group 5: Financial Performance and Future Outlook - The company expects to maintain stable profitability in its switchgear business, contingent on revenue growth and business structure [36] - The company has committed to a cash dividend of no less than 60% of distributable profits annually from 2023 to 2025 [36] - Future capital expenditures will focus on gradual investments in sales and service centers rather than large-scale production capacity expansions [36]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the dual transformation of technology and industry in the global economy, highlighting the significant growth potential of small and medium-sized listed companies in China as they contribute to industrial upgrades and innovation in the capital market [1][5]. Group 1: Event Overview - The "Future 20 · 2025 A-Share Listed Companies Growth Power Annual Conference" was successfully held in Shanghai, focusing on the transformation of China's economic structure and the growth potential of small and medium-sized listed companies [1][3]. - The event was co-hosted by prominent organizations including Yicai Media, Ernst & Young (China), and others, utilizing a proprietary growth assessment model to evaluate and select 20 companies with the highest growth potential based on 12 dimensions and 38 indicators [3][4]. Group 2: Government and Economic Insights - The Deputy District Mayor of Jiading, Lu Zufang, stated that small and medium-sized enterprises are crucial for economic resilience and a source of vitality for national technological innovation [5][6]. - Jiading District is focusing on key industries such as smart connected vehicles, integrated circuits, and biomedicine, while also exploring emerging fields like quantum technology and new energy [6][10]. Group 3: Industry Development and Future Outlook - The conference highlighted the importance of high-quality development in China's economy, particularly in 2025, as a pivotal year for structural upgrades and the A-share market's transition to high-quality growth [6][9]. - Experts discussed the need for companies to balance global expansion with enhancing new productive forces, emphasizing the role of technological innovation in driving growth [12][18]. Group 4: Selected Companies and Recognition - The 20 companies recognized for their growth potential include Huaming Equipment, Jack Technology, and others, reflecting their past achievements and future growth expectations [24][27]. - The selection process aimed to identify companies with high technological content, growth potential, and sound governance, contributing to the narrative of China's industrial upgrade [38]. Group 5: Investment Perspectives - Investment professionals emphasized the importance of understanding the growth potential of small and medium-sized companies, which can offer significant opportunities compared to larger blue-chip firms [36][37]. - The need for a multi-dimensional investment logic was highlighted, encouraging investors to engage deeply with companies to uncover hidden growth potential [36][37].

Core Insights - The global economy is undergoing a dual transformation of technology and industry, with active technological innovation reshaping the competitive landscape. Small and medium-sized listed companies are seen as vital for industrial upgrades and embodying the innovative genes of capital markets serving the real economy [1][4]. Group 1: Event Overview - The "Future 20 · 2025 A-share Listed Companies Growth Power Annual Conference" was successfully held in Shanghai, focusing on the growth potential of small and medium-sized listed companies in China [1][3]. - The event was co-hosted by prominent organizations including Yicai, Ernst & Young (China), and others, emphasizing data-driven value measurement and the selection of 20 benchmark enterprises with the highest growth potential based on a proprietary assessment model [3]. Group 2: Government and Economic Insights - The Deputy Mayor of Jiading District highlighted that small and medium-sized enterprises are crucial for economic resilience and a source of vitality for national technological innovation. Jiading aims to enhance its capacity for technological innovation and industrial integration [4][8]. - The district is focusing on key industries such as intelligent connected vehicles, integrated circuits, and biomedicine, while also exploring emerging fields like quantum technology and new energy [8]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The conference featured discussions on China's high-quality development path, emphasizing the importance of innovation-driven growth and the need for enterprises to balance global expansion with domestic transformation [11][13]. - Predictions indicate a new golden growth period for the economy from 2026 to 2028, with a focus on establishing foundational cash flows and prioritizing high-barrier industries [18]. Group 4: Investment and Market Dynamics - The event underscored the need for capital markets to support the technological and innovation-driven orientation of Chinese industries, with a significant increase in the number of products where China holds a leading global position [13]. - The "Future 20" initiative aims to guide capital towards high-quality enterprises characterized by high technological content and growth potential, fostering a sustainable investment ecosystem [32][33]. Group 5: Selected Companies - The conference announced the list of 20 companies recognized for their growth potential, including Huaming Equipment, Jack Technology, and others, reflecting their past achievements and future growth expectations [29].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Huaming Equipment with a price target of Rmb33.00 for December 2026 [3][7]. Core Insights - Huaming Equipment is the largest manufacturer of tap changers for transformers in China, holding a market share of over 60% and gradually gaining market share globally. The company is expected to benefit from the increasing global demand for transformers due to its cost advantages and strong brand recognition [7]. - The company has seen a pick-up in sales in the US market, particularly from transformer manufacturers in Korea and Brazil, as well as data centers. However, management anticipates limited near-term earnings contributions from this market [4][5]. - Huaming's shorter lead times for product delivery (less than 3 months) compared to competitors (3-6 months) are a key factor driving its overseas growth [4][5]. Summary by Sections Overseas Market Opportunities - Huaming Equipment is exploring a potential major contract for transformer supply in Saudi Arabia, which could exceed Rmb10 billion. This contract may require over 50% of components to be locally manufactured, prompting Huaming to consider establishing an assembly plant in Saudi Arabia [4][5]. - The company has increased its sales in the US market, with a focus on data centers and power plants, although management notes that immediate earnings contributions will be limited [4][5]. Domestic Market Performance - Domestic growth remains modest, with management expressing caution due to weak demand from non-grid customers. Huaming's market share in domestic sales volume is already over 80% (excluding UHV) [5][7]. - The company is optimistic about growth opportunities in high-voltage products (>500kV) and has supplied tap changers for a UHV line that became operational earlier this year [5]. Valuation - The price target of Rmb33.00 per share is based on a target P/E ratio of approximately 28x, reflecting a 7.8x 2026E P/B and a yield of 1.8%. This valuation is consistent with the average of regional transformer companies, indicating a stronger outlook for Huaming's overseas growth [8].

Core Insights - Huaming Power Equipment Co., Ltd. (Huaming Equipment) has engaged in investor activities, including specific object research, site visits, and conference calls, with a significant number of renowned domestic and international institutions participating [1] Group 1: Overseas Market Performance - The company's overseas business has seen high growth rates, primarily due to a low base, increased market share, and indirect export growth from Chinese transformer manufacturers [2] - Europe, Southeast Asia, and South America are the main contributors to overseas revenue growth, with multiple countries contributing rather than a few [2] - The company indicates that the European and American markets are relatively open, allowing products that meet parameter standards to enter [2] Group 2: U.S. Market Potential - The U.S. market, being the largest single market for power equipment, is a focal point for institutions, driven by grid renovation, manufacturing return, and AI-related electricity demand [3] - Current growth in the U.S. market is mainly from built-in tap changers, with external tap changers undergoing testing [3] - While the U.S. market has potential for revenue growth, significant breakthroughs will depend on localization strategies or policy changes [3] Group 3: Capacity and Competition - The company states that domestic capacity can meet future demand, with assembly capacity being relatively saturated but still operating on a single shift [4] - Overseas factories in Indonesia and Turkey are being established not for capacity reasons but to obtain local production certifications [4] - The company views short-term impacts from competitors' capacity expansions as limited, with a focus on long-term market share growth rather than immediate profits [4] Group 4: Financials and Strategy - Recent increases in product prices are attributed to product structure optimization and a higher proportion of overseas revenue [5] - The company plans to gradually exit the engineering business to focus on power equipment and manufacturing, aiming to reduce financial volatility [5] - The dividend policy stipulates that cash dividends will not be less than 60% of distributable profits annually from 2023 to 2025 [5] Group 5: Challenges and Opportunities - The company faces challenges in product reliability, talent cultivation, brand building, and macroeconomic influences on demand [7] - The Middle East is being considered for local layout due to tender requirements, while the Russian market will expand under compliance [7] - The repair business has seen significant order growth in the first three quarters, with potential for future expansion as overseas holdings increase [7] - New products in power electronics for distribution networks have received positive feedback from overseas clients, indicating potential for small-scale sales [7]

Group 1: Fixed Income Strategy - The central bank has restarted bond purchases, indicating potential short-term opportunities in the bond market [7] - In October, most bond yields declined, with significant decreases in credit spreads and default amounts [7] - The report suggests a structural shift in government policy focus from traditional infrastructure to urban renewal and related service industries [7] Group 2: Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector's fund holding ratio decreased to 4.73% in Q3 2025, indicating a decline in heavy investment [13][14] - The liquor sector remains the most heavily weighted, but the holding ratio for major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye has decreased [16] - The report highlights a general reduction in fund holdings across various sub-sectors, including soft drinks and snacks [15][16] Group 3: Banking Sector - Changshu Bank reported a revenue of 9.05 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 8.15% [17] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.76%, with a significant reduction in asset impairment losses [17][18] - The report indicates a slight improvement in loan growth, particularly in personal business loans, although overall retail credit demand remains under pressure [18] Group 4: Potash Industry - Yara International's revenue increased by 55.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by both volume and price increases in potash [22] - The average selling price of potash rose to 2,507 yuan/ton, reflecting a 27.9% increase year-on-year [22] - The company is expanding its production capacity, with new projects expected to come online soon, contributing to sustained high demand in the potash market [24][25] Group 5: Oilfield Services - CNOOC Services reported a significant increase in net profit, with a year-on-year growth of 32.09% in the first three quarters of 2025 [28] - The utilization rate of drilling platforms has improved, contributing to higher revenue and profit margins [29] - The report emphasizes the company's strategic shift towards high-return projects and the optimization of its business structure [30] Group 6: Chemical Industry - Hualu Hengsheng's revenue in Q3 2025 was 7.79 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 5.1% [26] - The company experienced a slight decrease in net profit, attributed to market supply and demand changes for its main products [26][27] - The report notes that the company is focusing on cost control and efficiency improvements amid fluctuating raw material prices [27]

Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of approximately 2.013 billion CNY, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 694 million CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.12% [6] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 581 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 17.66% [7] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.00 CNY per 10 shares, totaling approximately 179 million CNY [7] Revenue Breakdown - The power equipment business generated revenue of 1.535 billion CNY in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 16.51%, with overseas revenue reaching 486 million CNY, up 45.43% [7] - Domestic revenue was 1.049 billion CNY, reflecting a growth of 6.7% [7] - Overseas revenue accounted for over 31% of the company's revenue from the busbar switch business [7] Market Dynamics - The company noted that the growth in overseas revenue is influenced by several factors, including a low base, gradual market share increase, and stable overseas demand [10] - The company expressed confidence in the sustainability of overseas revenue growth despite potential fluctuations in copper prices and year-end procurement rhythms [11] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on localizing its overseas operations, with established assembly and testing plants in Turkey and Indonesia, which have proven successful in capturing local market share [45] - Future plans include enhancing the sales and service teams in Europe and exploring opportunities in the Middle East and the U.S. markets [17] Competitive Landscape - The company maintains a competitive edge in delivery speed and product stability, with 80% of components produced in-house [46] - The pricing strategy remains stable, with no significant changes in domestic pricing, while overseas prices are generally higher due to market conditions [41] Industry Outlook - The company anticipates that the demand for transformers and related equipment will continue to grow, driven by infrastructure investments and the expansion of renewable energy projects [36] - The company is cautious about predicting significant changes in demand trends, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive understanding of market dynamics [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][27][31] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in the first three quarters, with a significant increase in profitability driven by a higher proportion of high-margin export business and a reduction in low-margin power engineering business [2][6][19] - The company's revenue from power equipment reached 1.535 billion yuan, up 16.51% year-on-year, with overseas revenue growing by 45.43% [2][23] - The company is expanding its overseas operations, with new facilities in Singapore and Indonesia, and has established a presence in Turkey, the US, and Brazil, indicating a strong potential for continued export growth [2][23] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 1.815 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.87%, and a net profit of 581 million yuan, up 17.66% [6][19] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 55.44%, an increase of 5.55 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 32.51%, up 3.14 percentage points [6][19] - For Q3, the company reported revenue of 694 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.13%, and a net profit of 213 million yuan, up 18.51% [19] Revenue Breakdown - The company's revenue from power equipment business was 1.535 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with domestic revenue at 1.049 billion yuan (up 6.7%) and overseas revenue at 486 million yuan (up 45.43%) [2][23] - The export revenue from tap changers accounted for 32% of total revenue, reflecting an ongoing optimization of the revenue structure [2][23] Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for the company has been adjusted upwards, with expected net profits of 744 million yuan, 886 million yuan, and 1.037 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][27] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 33, 27, and 23 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [3][27] Valuation Metrics - The projected revenue for 2023 is 1.961 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 14.6%, and net profit is expected to reach 542 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 50.9% [4][29] - The company is expected to maintain a strong return on equity (ROE) of 16.2% in 2023, increasing to 26.7% by 2027 [4][29]