每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 1月13日，创业板新能源ETF国泰（159387）回调超1.1%，低轨卫星与储能需求或成新动能。 时富证券指出，储能电池行业正从新能源领域的"配套角色"转变为支撑智能时代电力稳定的核心基 础设施，其增长逻辑已由政策驱动转向市场化需求与技术创新双轮驱动。全球能源转型推动储能市场高 速增长，2025年上半年出货量达246.4GWh，同比增长115.2%，行业从产能过剩转为供需紧张，龙头企 业产能利用率超过90%。在AI算力需求激增的背景下，人工智能数据中心(AIDC)储能成为新蓝海，预计 2030年出货量将突破300GWh，五年复合增长率超60%。IGBT功率半导体作为电力电子领域的核心器 件，在新能源车、智能电网和工业自动化需求推动下，中国市场规模有望突破600亿元。随着AI算力基 础设施成为新的用电大户，IGBT在提升电能转换效率、确保设备稳定运行方面的作用愈发关键。 创业板新能源ETF国泰（159387）跟踪的是创新能源指数（399266），单日涨跌幅限制达20%，该 指数从市场中选取涉及清洁能源生产、储能技术、智能电网及新能源汽车等业务的上市公司证券作为指 数样本，以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a shift towards market-driven dynamics in the energy storage battery industry, with significant improvements in the lithium sector and emerging growth opportunities in energy storage due to economic factors [1] Group 1: Lithium Industry - The lithium industry has undergone a three-year adjustment period, leading to a rapid improvement in supply-demand fundamentals, with prices rebounding from a low of 60,000 yuan/ton to over 130,000 yuan/ton [1] - Supply disruptions are noted due to regulatory issues concerning the Yichun lithium mica mine, while demand from power batteries is establishing a solid foundation [1] Group 2: Cobalt Industry - The cobalt industry is significantly impacted by the Democratic Republic of Congo's quota policy, with the quota expected to be only 96,600 tons in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 56% [1] - Shipping schedule issues may lead to a medium- to long-term shift towards a tight balance in supply and demand, potentially raising cobalt price levels [1] Group 3: Rare Earth Permanent Magnet Sector - The supply side of the rare earth permanent magnet sector is being optimized through the "Rare Earth Management Regulations" and the integration of major groups [1] - The demand for new energy vehicles has increased to 42%, with emerging applications such as energy-saving motors, humanoid robots, and eVTOLs opening up long-term growth opportunities [1] Group 4: Solid-State Battery Industry - The industrialization process of solid-state batteries is accelerating, with expectations to achieve small-scale vehicle installations by around 2027, further driving lithium battery demand [1] Group 5: ETF Performance - The ChiNext New Energy ETF (159387) tracked the Innovation Energy Index (399266), which saw a daily fluctuation of 20%, focusing on high-growth and technologically innovative companies in clean energy, new energy vehicles, and energy storage technologies [1]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 创业板新能源ETF国泰（159387）跟踪的是创新能源指数（399266），单日涨跌幅达20%，该指数从市 场中选取涉及清洁能源、新能源汽车、储能技术等领域的科技创新企业作为指数样本，重点关注具有高 成长性和技术创新能力的公司，以反映新能源领域前沿科技企业的整体表现。 天风证券指出，锂行业经历3年调整期，供需基本面加速改善，价格已从年内低点6万元/吨回升至13万 元以上。供给端受宜春锂云母矿证问题扰动，粗放式开采模式逐步退出；需求侧动力电池构成基本盘， 储能因经济性成为新增长极。钴方面，刚果金实施出口配额制（2025年配额仅9.66万吨，同比减少 56%），叠加印尼增量有限，中长期供需或转向紧平衡，钴价中枢有望提升。稀土永磁领域，供给端通 过《稀土管理条例》及南北集团整合持续优化，需求侧新能源汽车占比提升至42%，人形机器人、节能 电机等新应用打开长期空间，稀土价格中枢或持续上行。储能电池成为锂电需求新引擎，2025年前三季 度国内出货同比增67%，政策驱动下经济性逐步显现。 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the resilience of demand in the electric vehicle (EV) sector despite a mid-December pullback in the ChiNext New Energy ETF, indicating a positive outlook for the industry during its peak season [1] Industry Summary - November saw a continuous month-on-month increase in domestic electric vehicle sales, with expectations for stable growth in the domestic EV market next year [1] - The electrification rate of commercial vehicles and increased battery capacity per vehicle are projected to drive rapid growth in demand for power batteries [1] - The overall shipment volume of lithium batteries is expected to show significant year-on-year growth, supported by high demand in both domestic and international energy storage markets [1] - The trend of "anti-involution" is leading to a resonance in energy storage demand, signaling upward trends in both volume and price for battery and material sectors, particularly for heavy asset and hard-to-expand segments like lithium hexafluorophosphate and separators [1] Company Summary - The ChiNext New Energy ETF (159387) tracks the Innovation Energy Index (399266), which includes technology innovation companies in clean energy, electric vehicles, and energy storage sectors [1] - The index focuses on companies with high growth potential and technological innovation capabilities, reflecting the overall performance of cutting-edge technology firms in the new energy field [1] - On the day of the report, the ETF experienced a daily fluctuation of 20% [1]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 东莞证券指出，电力设备行业方面，光伏行业正处于转型升级关键阶段，供需结构失衡与技术快速迭代 交织，多数企业处于极限经营和普遍亏损阶段。行业正从"价格战"转向"价值战"，以技术创新驱动质 变。截至2025年第三季度，资本支出显著收缩，未来新增产能将大幅减少，竞争核心转向技术、品牌和 盈利能力。现金流充裕、技术领先的头部企业有望通过逆周期投资扩大优势，提升行业集中度。储能行 业方面，国内储能电芯需求强劲，头部电池企业满产且订单排至2026年年初。国家推进新型储能规模化 建设，目标2027年装机规模达1.8亿千瓦以上，带动直接投资约2500亿元。全球储能市场保持强劲发展 态势，预计2030年累计装机规模达1950GWh左右。 创业板新能源ETF国泰（159387）跟踪的是创新能源指数（399266），单日涨跌幅达20%，该指数从市 场中选取涉及清洁能源、节能技术及新能源汽车等领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映新能源行 业具有高成长性和创新能力的相关企业整体表现。行业配置上，主要覆盖太阳能、风能、电动汽车及其 产业链等细分领域。 ...

Group 1 - The solid-state battery industry is making significant progress, with recent breakthroughs in key technologies by Chinese research teams [1] - The semi-solid battery has entered mass production, and the pilot lines for solid-state batteries are being established, leading to increased demand for materials and equipment in the industry [1] - The Guotai New Energy ETF (159387) tracks the Innovation Energy Index (399266), which has seen a daily fluctuation of 20%, focusing on companies in clean energy, energy conservation, and new energy vehicles [1]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with the ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 indices both dropping over 4% during the day. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.58 trillion, an increase of 221.5 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.62%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.54%, the ChiNext Index by 3.99%, and the CSI 500 Index by 1.78% [1] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector saw a significant correction after a previous rapid increase. Despite the ongoing high demand for AI and domestic substitution trends in computing hardware, some stocks are currently overvalued, leading to increased volatility [3] - The domestic production rate of advanced process equipment still has considerable room for improvement, and the upcoming 14th Five-Year Plan may confirm increased investment in this area [5] - The U.S. House of Representatives recently released a report on semiconductor export controls, which may push for breakthroughs in domestic equipment substitution due to ongoing U.S. export restrictions [5][10] Photovoltaic Sector - The photovoltaic sector is expected to benefit from upcoming policies and market dynamics, with the Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee scheduled for next week, which may lead to significant developments in energy consumption standards and production limits [6][9] - The photovoltaic materials sector is anticipated to see improved performance in Q3 2025, driven by both performance recovery and policy catalysts [6] - Investors are encouraged to consider the Photovoltaic 50 ETF (159864) for comprehensive exposure to the photovoltaic industry [7] New Energy Vehicles - The New Energy Vehicle ETF (159806) declined by 4.61%, primarily influenced by market sentiment and style changes. However, the demand for energy storage and power batteries remains strong, with significant year-on-year growth in both sectors [8] - The average production of batteries and materials is expected to increase, indicating a rebound in downstream demand [8] - Recent price increases in lithium hexafluorophosphate and potential price hikes in iron-lithium cathodes are anticipated to benefit from ongoing market adjustments [8] Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with high growth potential or policy support, such as communication ETFs (515880), integrated circuit ETFs (159546), and semiconductor equipment ETFs (159516) [6] - The upcoming Q3 earnings reports from major tech companies are expected to provide critical insights into capital expenditures and profitability in the AI and data center sectors [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the significant advancements in solid-state battery technology, driven by policy support and technological breakthroughs, which are expected to accelerate the commercialization process and attract capital attention [1][3]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and eight other departments issued a work plan for the non-ferrous metal industry, emphasizing the acceleration of application verification for solid-state battery materials [3]. - Tsinghua University's research team has made progress in polymer electrolyte research for solid-state batteries, developing a new fluorinated polyether electrolyte that supports the development of high-safety, high-energy-density solid-state lithium batteries [3]. Group 2 - The solid-state battery sector is experiencing a commercial wave, with companies like EVE Energy planning to achieve a production capacity of 60Ah for their "Longquan No. 2" solid-state battery by the end of the year, and CATL's new battery technology achieving an energy density of over 500Wh/kg [3]. - The lithium battery sector is entering a peak demand season, with strong production in September and a favorable outlook for downstream energy storage [4]. - Major lithium battery manufacturers have reported improved performance metrics, with capacity utilization rates reaching historical highs, and significant growth in new orders for equipment expected in 2025 [4]. Group 3 - The New Energy ETF (159387) is positioned to capitalize on the growth opportunities in the new energy sector, with solid-state batteries and energy storage comprising over 65% of its portfolio [5]. - The ETF tracks the New Energy Index, which includes listed companies involved in clean energy production, storage, and application, and has a maximum fluctuation limit of 20% [5].

Market Performance - A-shares showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3860.50 points, down 0.26%, and the Shenzhen Component Index reaching a new high at 13005.77 points, up 0.63% [1] - The ChiNext Index continued its strong performance, rising 1.51% to close at 3066.18 points, with a notable increase of over 9% for CATL, which reached a historical high [2] Economic Data - August economic data indicated a weakening trend in industrial production, investment, and consumption, with real estate investment down 12.9% year-on-year [4] - Industrial production growth slowed from 5.7% to 5.2% year-on-year, while retail sales growth decelerated to 3.4% [4] Policy and Industry Trends - A series of favorable policies were announced, including a target of 180 million kilowatts for new energy storage installations by 2027, which is expected to stimulate demand for storage and power batteries [6] - The domestic market is entering a traditional peak season, with a reported 60% penetration rate for new energy vehicles in the first week of September [6] Company Performance - Recent earnings reports from lithium battery companies showed significant improvements in revenue, profit, and cash flow, with leading battery manufacturers achieving a capacity utilization rate of 89.9% [7] - The gaming industry is experiencing growth, with new products and existing titles performing well, supported by an increase in game license approvals [8] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on the ChiNext 50 ETF (159375) and the Sci-Tech Innovation and Entrepreneurship ETF (588360) due to the favorable valuation and growth prospects in the ChiNext market [3] - In the bond market, the 10-year government bond yield is expected to return to a downward trend, presenting good investment value around 1.80% [5]

Group 1 - The solid-state battery sector in A-shares experienced a significant surge, with three new energy-themed ETFs rising over 10% and more than ten related ETFs hitting the daily limit [1][2] - The market saw a net inflow of over 26 billion yuan into the CSI 1000 ETF, marking the highest level since April 8, while the CSI 300 ETF also saw a net inflow exceeding 17 billion yuan [1][8] - The recent performance of the dual innovation-themed ETFs has been volatile, with significant net outflows recorded from ETFs tracking the STAR 50 and the ChiNext Index [1][8] Group 2 - Multiple ETFs related to solid-state batteries and new energy themes saw substantial price increases, with notable stocks like Jinlang Technology and Deyang Shares hitting the daily limit [2][3] - The ETFs tracking the ChiNext 50, ChiNext Index, and STAR Entrepreneur 50 all rose over 6%, with several ETFs tracking the ChiNext 50 gaining over 7% [2] - The premium rates for several ETFs, including the Guotai New Energy ETF and the Lithium Battery ETF, were reported to be above 1% [2][3] Group 3 - The recent half-year report data indicates that the new energy industry chain has shown signs of recovery, with improved supply-demand dynamics and a bottoming out of fundamentals [3] - The banking sector and low-volatility dividend ETFs experienced slight declines following their previous gains, while the bond market also faced a downturn [4][5] - The Hong Kong innovation drug sector saw increased trading activity, with the Hong Kong Innovation Drug ETF's trading volume surging to over 13 billion yuan [6][7] Group 4 - The inflow of funds into leading broad-based ETFs has been notable, with significant net inflows recorded for the CSI 1000 ETF and the CSI 300 ETF [8][9] - The ETFs tracking the securities company index and specific chemical and communication equipment indices have also seen substantial net inflows [8] - The recent trend indicates a shift in funds towards undervalued, stable growth sectors and emerging niches like robotics [10] Group 5 - There has been a surge in the reporting of ETF-FOF products by fund companies, indicating a growing interest in these investment vehicles [11]