摘要 "做到容易，做好很难" 跨入TWh时代之后，中国锂电要在世界第一之后，再回答一个更难的问题——什么才是高质量发展的下一段路。 11月20日，在2025（第十五届）高工锂电年会的闭幕式（二）：新周期新展望，宁德时代董事长曾毓群博士、天赐材料董事长徐金富、思客琦董事长 兼总经理付文辉、容百科技董事长白厚善、龙蟠科技董事长石俊峰围绕长期主义、技术创新、全球布局、协同制造、能源体系重构等关键议题，分享了 对产业走向的深度思考。 在中国锂电池出货量跨入后TWh时代之际， 宁德时代董 事长曾毓 群博士 展望行业下一个十五年的高质量发展之路。 宁德时代董事长曾毓群博士 他指出，中国锂电已进入全球占比领先的新阶段，但创新不足、价格内卷和无序扩张等问题正在削弱竞争基础。未来十五年的关键，在规模继续放大的 同时，要看清行业属性，坚守行业自律，坚持长期主义。 他的判断从三个维度展开。 一、锂电属于能源行业。全球用电需求快速上升，中国新增用电量规模相当于发达国家的全年总量，电气化与清洁化趋势使锂电站在能源体系重构的核 心。 国内新能源汽车渗透率连续维持高位，电动商用车、电动飞机、电动船舶，以及数据中心和机器人等新兴领域正形成新 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 World Power Battery Conference held in Yibin, Sichuan, showcased 180 signed projects with a total value of 86.13 billion yuan, focusing on key areas in green energy such as power batteries and new energy vehicles [1] - China's power battery industry has seen significant growth, with production increasing from 83.4 GWh in 2020 to over 1000 GWh by 2024, representing a growth of over 10 times [1] - The industry is expanding into new applications such as energy storage and low-altitude economy, driven by technological innovation and global collaboration [2][3] Industry Growth and Market Dynamics - China's power battery industry has improved its global competitiveness, with six Chinese companies in the top ten global power battery manufacturers, holding over 60% market share [2] - In the first three quarters of this year, the cumulative installed capacity of power batteries reached 493.9 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 42.5% [2] - The energy storage sector is emerging as a new growth engine, with domestic lithium battery shipments expected to reach 580 GWh in 2025 [2] Technological Innovations - Companies like GCL are collaborating with tech giants to develop energy models and infrastructure, focusing on distributed energy and virtual power plants [3] - CATL has introduced a fourth-generation lithium iron phosphate battery, leading in energy density and lifespan, and is also producing sodium-ion batteries to reduce reliance on lithium [5] - The industry is witnessing advancements in semi-solid and solid-state batteries, with expectations for commercial viability in the coming years [6][5] Sustainability and Recycling - The recycling of power batteries is becoming crucial for resource stability and environmental protection, with calls for a comprehensive lifecycle management system [7] - The industry is integrating recycling into its operations, enhancing the sustainability of the supply chain and expanding the application of recycled materials [7] Global Integration and Future Outlook - China's power battery industry is deeply integrating into the global supply chain, supplying about 70% of battery materials and over 60% of power batteries globally [8][9] - The export volume of power batteries reached approximately 130 GWh in the first three quarters, marking a year-on-year increase of 32.7% [8] - Future strategies emphasize technological innovation, green development, and international cooperation to strengthen the industry's position as a pillar of the national economy [9]

Core Viewpoint - The energy storage sector is experiencing a significant recovery and value reassessment in 2025, driven by favorable policies, increasing demand, and rapid profit growth [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Stimulus - The Chinese government has reinforced support for the battery industry through policies, including the "New Energy Storage Scale Construction Special Action Plan (2025-2027)," which aims for a new energy storage capacity of over 180 million kilowatts by 2027, leading to direct investments of approximately 250 billion yuan [5]. - The industry is transitioning from "mandatory storage" to "independent storage," enhancing market vitality and diversifying revenue sources [6]. - The new five-year plan emphasizes increasing the proportion of renewable energy supply and promoting high-quality development of clean energy [6]. Group 2: Market Demand - In the domestic market, the new energy storage capacity reached 75.9 GWh in the first eight months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 42%. The lithium battery shipment in Q3 was 165 GWh, up 65% year-on-year, with an expected total shipment of 580 GWh for the year, representing a growth rate exceeding 75% [7]. - Globally, the shipment of energy storage cells is projected to reach 226 GWh in 2025, a 97% increase year-on-year, with Chinese companies holding 90% of the market share [8]. Group 3: Industry Performance - Leading companies like CATL reported Q3 revenue of 104.186 billion yuan, a 12.9% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 18.549 billion yuan, up 41.21% year-on-year, indicating strong cost control and product optimization [15]. - Sungrow achieved Q3 revenue of 22.869 billion yuan, a 20.83% increase, with net profit soaring 57.04% year-on-year [16]. - Other companies, such as EVE Energy and Guoxuan High-Tech, also reported significant revenue and profit growth, reflecting a broader recovery in the energy storage battery sector [18][19]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Two core trends for the future of energy storage include policy developments related to grid storage and the integration of energy storage with global AI data centers [23]. - The energy storage industry is expected to experience high growth and certainty, driven by ongoing renewable energy construction and the increasing importance of energy storage in enhancing the profitability of renewable energy generation [25]. - The valuation of the energy storage battery sector is currently around 35 times PE-TTM, lower than the 45 times expected in 2024, indicating potential for valuation recovery [30]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The energy storage battery ETF (159566) has seen significant capital inflow, with over 590 million yuan in net inflow over the past 20 days, and its current scale has surpassed 2 billion yuan [22][34]. - The ETF tracks the National Certificate New Energy Battery Index, focusing on leading companies in the energy storage industry, including CATL, Sungrow, and EVE Energy [35].

Core Viewpoint - The energy storage sector is experiencing a significant turning point driven by favorable policies, surging demand, and rapid profit recovery, indicating a potential resurgence and value reassessment in 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Policy Support - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have outlined a plan for new energy storage, targeting an installed capacity of over 180 million kilowatts by 2027, with direct investment expected to reach approximately 250 billion yuan [6]. - The industry is transitioning from "mandatory storage" to "independent storage," enhancing market vitality and diversifying revenue sources [7]. - The new five-year plan emphasizes increasing the proportion of renewable energy supply and promoting high-quality development of clean energy [7]. Group 2: Market Demand - Domestic new energy storage installations reached 75.9 GWh in the first eight months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 42%, with lithium battery shipments expected to reach 580 GWh for the year, growing over 75% [8]. - Internationally, global energy storage cell shipments are projected to hit 226 GWh in 2025, a 97% increase, with Chinese companies holding a 90% market share [9]. - The Inflation Reduction Act in the U.S. has extended tax credits until 2035, stimulating global energy storage project tenders [9]. Group 3: Industry Performance - Leading battery manufacturer CATL reported a Q3 revenue of 104.186 billion yuan, a 12.9% year-on-year increase, with net profit soaring 41.21% [17]. - Sungrow achieved a Q3 revenue of 22.869 billion yuan, up 20.83%, with net profit increasing by 57.04% [18]. - Other companies like EVE Energy and Guoxuan High-Tech also reported significant revenue and profit growth, indicating a broader recovery in the energy storage sector [20][21]. Group 4: Future Trends - Key trends to watch include policy developments related to energy storage and the integration of artificial intelligence data centers, which are expected to drive demand [25][28]. - The energy storage industry is positioned for high growth and certainty, with projected internal rates of return (IRR) between 6% and 12% [26]. - The valuation of the energy storage sector is currently around 35 times PE-TTM, lower than the projected 45 times for 2024, indicating potential for valuation recovery [32]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The energy storage battery ETF has seen significant capital inflow, with over 590 million yuan in net inflow over the past 20 days, indicating strong investor interest [24]. - The ETF includes major companies like Sungrow, CATL, and Guoxuan High-Tech, reflecting a diversified investment approach in the energy storage sector [38].

Group 1 - EVE Energy Co., Ltd. showcased high-reliability power solutions for the low-altitude economy at the Liaoning Province Aviation Industry Development Conference, attracting significant industry attention [1] - Multiple lithium battery manufacturers, including Zhongxin Innovation and Funeng Technology, are advancing their battery products for the low-altitude economy, indicating a competitive market landscape [1] - The collaboration between lithium battery companies and eVTOL manufacturers is entering a new phase, potentially alleviating power bottlenecks and accelerating growth in the lithium battery industry [1] Group 2 - Zhongxin Innovation signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Hefei Lanyi Aviation Technology, marking a significant step in the eVTOL power sector [2] - The partnership with Guangdong Gaoyu Technology aims to promote standardized eVTOL power products, with Zhongxin Innovation previously supplying high-energy density batteries for the Aircab [2] - The GOVY AirCab, equipped with Zhongxin Innovation's specialized battery, has received nearly 1,000 pre-orders and is currently undergoing airworthiness certification, with plans for mass production in the second half of 2026 [2] Group 3 - Funeng Technology announced that its eVTOL semi-solid-state battery has entered the industrialization phase, with plans to integrate into Guangzhou's low-altitude economic development [2] - The company is collaborating with local firms like XPeng Motors and EHang to seize industry development opportunities [2] - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) has launched a solid-state battery and signed a strategic investment agreement with Shanghai Fengfei Aviation Technology to develop eVTOL batteries [3] Group 4 - Solid-state batteries are recognized for their high energy density and thermal stability, which are crucial for enhancing the safety and endurance of flying vehicles [3] - The ongoing collaboration between aircraft manufacturers and battery suppliers is expected to accelerate the industrialization of solid-state batteries in the aviation sector [3] - Analysts predict that increased R&D investment in solid-state and other power battery technologies will foster synergistic effects across industries, expediting the adoption of these technologies in flying vehicles [3]

Core Insights - ByteDance's entry into the lithium battery sector is a strategic move driven by policy benefits, technological collaboration, and ecological logic, aiming for long-term energy positioning rather than short-term profits [2][3] Group 1: Policy and Market Demand - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a dual-driven growth pattern under China's "dual carbon" goals, with a significant increase in demand for electric vehicle batteries and energy storage solutions [4] - In the first nine months of 2025, global lithium battery shipments reached 1758 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 142.3%, with China accounting for 70% of this volume [4] - ByteDance is targeting a core market worth hundreds of billions as the energy structure shifts from fossil fuels to renewable energy over the next decade [4] Group 2: Technological Synergy - ByteDance's AI algorithms and big data capabilities are well-suited to address the efficiency bottlenecks in lithium battery research and development [5] - The company has established an AI research lab in collaboration with the Chinese Academy of Sciences, significantly reducing the time required for material screening from months to hours [5] Group 3: Ecological Closure - The lithium battery initiative is crucial for ByteDance to enhance its "digital services + physical hardware" ecosystem, addressing its own energy needs while extending its commercial boundaries [6] - The company aims to reduce electricity costs by 15%-20% through a planned 200 MWh energy storage microgrid, which will also meet carbon reduction requirements [6] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - ByteDance's entry into the lithium battery market has intensified competition, leading to a multi-polar game involving traditional battery giants, internet peers, and emerging startups [7][8] - Unlike other tech giants, ByteDance is directly engaging in lithium battery R&D and production, aiming for solid-state battery pilot production by 2026 [9] Group 5: Industry Trends and Recommendations - The lithium battery industry is transitioning from single-material competition to a model emphasizing technological integration and scene reconstruction [12] - Key trends include the need for interdisciplinary innovation, the evolution of batteries into energy hubs, and the importance of global competition and localization [13][14][15] - Recommendations for traditional battery giants include enhancing algorithm capabilities and exploring new application scenarios, while emerging companies should focus on niche areas to build technological barriers [18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the significant advancements in solid-state battery technology, driven by policy support and technological breakthroughs, which are expected to accelerate the commercialization process and attract capital attention [1][3]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and eight other departments issued a work plan for the non-ferrous metal industry, emphasizing the acceleration of application verification for solid-state battery materials [3]. - Tsinghua University's research team has made progress in polymer electrolyte research for solid-state batteries, developing a new fluorinated polyether electrolyte that supports the development of high-safety, high-energy-density solid-state lithium batteries [3]. Group 2 - The solid-state battery sector is experiencing a commercial wave, with companies like EVE Energy planning to achieve a production capacity of 60Ah for their "Longquan No. 2" solid-state battery by the end of the year, and CATL's new battery technology achieving an energy density of over 500Wh/kg [3]. - The lithium battery sector is entering a peak demand season, with strong production in September and a favorable outlook for downstream energy storage [4]. - Major lithium battery manufacturers have reported improved performance metrics, with capacity utilization rates reaching historical highs, and significant growth in new orders for equipment expected in 2025 [4]. Group 3 - The New Energy ETF (159387) is positioned to capitalize on the growth opportunities in the new energy sector, with solid-state batteries and energy storage comprising over 65% of its portfolio [5]. - The ETF tracks the New Energy Index, which includes listed companies involved in clean energy production, storage, and application, and has a maximum fluctuation limit of 20% [5].

Core Insights - CATL's stock price reached a historical peak with a market capitalization of 1.92 trillion yuan, but subsequently experienced a decline, raising concerns about its ability to maintain this valuation [1][3][4] Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Capitalization - On September 25, 2025, CATL's stock price hit 399 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 1.92 trillion yuan, marking a 30% increase [1] - Following a 3.17% drop the next day, the stock price fell to 380.4 yuan per share, bringing the market cap down to 1.74 trillion yuan, below Kweichow Moutai [1][4] - By September 29, 2025, CATL's stock price rebounded to 397.37 yuan per share [1] Group 2: Business Performance and Financials - CATL maintained its leading position in the global power battery market, with a market share of 37.9% as of 2025, although it slightly decreased from 38.1% at the beginning of the year [9] - In Q3 2024, CATL reported a net profit of 13.136 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.97%, driven by new products and technology premiums despite revenue pressures from declining battery sales [4][12] - For the first half of 2025, CATL's total revenue was 178.886 billion yuan, a 7.27% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 30.485 billion yuan, reflecting a 33.33% growth [12][15] Group 3: Industry Trends and Competitive Landscape - The Chinese government issued guidelines to prevent excessive competition in the lithium battery industry, promoting a shift from price wars to value-based competition [5] - CATL faces increasing competition from domestic players like BYD and other second-tier companies, leading to a decline in its domestic market share, which fell to 41.7% by Q3 2025 [9][10] - The global battery market is evolving towards a more competitive landscape, with CATL needing to maintain its market share to sustain its high valuation [8][9] Group 4: Technological Advancements and R&D - CATL's ongoing investment in R&D, with expenditures reaching 10.095 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, is crucial for maintaining its competitive edge [15] - The company is focusing on new technologies such as sodium-ion batteries and solid-state batteries, which are essential for future growth and market share retention [15][16] - The introduction of new products like the "Shenxing Pro" lithium iron phosphate battery is aimed at expanding CATL's presence in the European market [7]

Core Viewpoint - The solid-state battery industry is experiencing rapid advancements, with companies like Guoxuan High-Tech and EVE Energy achieving significant milestones in production and technology development, indicating a shift towards commercialization and a potential market boom by 2030 [1][2][10]. Industry Developments - Guoxuan High-Tech has successfully connected its first solid-state battery pilot line, achieving a 90% yield rate in trial production, and is designing a 2GWh production line [1]. - EVE Energy has launched its first batch of 10Ah solid-state batteries at its Longquan No. 2 factory, marking a significant step in production [1]. - The solid-state battery market is projected to reach a shipment volume of 614.1GWh by 2030, with a market size expected to exceed 100 billion yuan [1]. Technological Advancements - Solid-state batteries are recognized for their superior energy density and safety compared to traditional lithium-ion batteries, addressing critical issues such as low-temperature performance and safety hazards [1][2]. - The core structure of solid-state batteries, utilizing solid electrolytes, allows for a significant increase in energy density, enabling electric vehicles to achieve ranges over 1000 km [2][3]. Market Trends - The A-share market has seen a surge in solid-state battery-related stocks, reflecting strong investor interest and the potential for a technological revolution in power batteries [1]. - The introduction of semi-solid batteries, such as the MG4 model from SAIC, represents a practical transition towards full solid-state technology, making advanced battery technology accessible to the mass market [2][3]. Production and Commercialization - Companies like CATL and Gotion High-Tech are actively pursuing both semi-solid and solid-state battery technologies, aiming to optimize production efficiency and market presence [3][4]. - Gotion High-Tech plans to achieve small-scale production of solid-state batteries by 2026-2027, with a focus on establishing a GWh-level production line by 2030 [4]. Industry Collaboration - The solid-state battery sector is witnessing collaborative efforts across the supply chain, with companies like Xiamen Tungsten New Energy Materials and Wuxi XianDai Intelligent Equipment contributing to the development of key materials and production equipment [6]. - The successful signing of a 2.8GWh independent energy storage project by Nandu Power demonstrates the commercial viability of solid-state battery technology in large-scale applications [7]. Policy and Investment Landscape - The solid-state battery industry is supported by various policies aimed at fostering innovation and establishing a robust industrial ecosystem, including plans to create leading global enterprises by 2027 [9][10]. - Significant investment activity is noted, with 27 domestic companies in the solid-state battery field securing 109 rounds of financing, indicating strong market confidence [7][10].

Core Viewpoints - Solid-state batteries are no longer a distant future technology but are becoming a disruptive force in the energy landscape [2] - The report emphasizes that oxide and sulfide are the two most feasible technical routes for solid-state batteries, with composite aluminum foil being a key material to address core bottlenecks [7][14] - The industry is entering a golden window for commercialization, with 2027 being a critical milestone for solid-state battery production [16] Technical Route Assessment - **Oxide Route (Short to Medium Term Certainty)**: Achieved semi-solid state battery commercialization with energy density reaching 350Wh/kg, compatible with existing lithium battery production lines. The demand for oxide semi-solid state batteries is expected to reach 45GWh by 2027, corresponding to a market size of approximately 5.4 billion [9][36] - **Sulfide Route (Long-Term Potential)**: Known for ultra-high ionic conductivity (>10mS/cm), it faces challenges such as high costs (lithium sulfide prices at 3-5 million per ton), complex manufacturing processes, and interface stability issues. The market demand for sulfide solid-state batteries is projected to exceed 200 billion by 2030 [9][10] Key Material Opportunities - **Composite Aluminum Foil**: Utilizes a "metal-polymer-metal" sandwich structure to absorb volume expansion during charge/discharge, enhancing energy density by approximately 4.2%. Companies like Yinglian and Kecuan Technology have validated their products with leading clients [9][10] - **New Collectors**: Iron-based collectors and nickel-plated copper foil effectively address sulfide corrosion issues, offering a balance of safety and performance at a lower cost compared to stainless steel and pure nickel [10] Market Potential - The report forecasts that by 2030, the demand for solid-state batteries (including both power and consumer applications) will reach 150GWh, corresponding to a total market size of 229.2 billion. The market sizes for key materials are projected as follows: - Sulfide solid electrolyte: 178.4 billion - Composite aluminum foil: 48.5 billion - Oxide solid electrolyte: 9.9 billion [14][16] Policy Support - The government has allocated 6 billion yuan in special subsidies to support the R&D of solid-state batteries, accelerating the production timelines for major manufacturers from 2030 to 2026-2027 [5][36]