Group 1 - The 2025 China International Service Trade Fair (CIFT) opened in Beijing, focusing on the theme "Digital Intelligence Leading, Service Trade Renewing" [3] - The fair features six types of activities including global service trade summits, exhibitions, forums, and promotional events, with participation from 85 countries and international organizations [3] - The Philippines has the largest exhibition scale at the CIFT this year, showcasing local specialties and promoting tourism infrastructure investment opportunities [5] Group 2 - The Philippine national pavilion is designed with an island theme, featuring tropical elements and local products, aiming to create a unique atmosphere in Beijing [3][5] - The fair is held at Shougang Park for the first time, with over 40 supporting activities to create new service consumption models [5] - The event includes interactive experiences and exhibitions to meet audience needs, enhancing cultural exchange and business opportunities between participating countries [5]

Group 1 - A recent survey indicates that over 1,400 food items in Japan will see price increases in September, with an average rise of 14% [1] - The survey conducted by the Teikoku Databank involved 195 major food and beverage manufacturers, revealing that 1,422 food items will increase in price, marking a 0.6% increase in the number of items compared to the same period last year [1] - The types of food experiencing the most price hikes include seasonings (427 items), processed foods (338 items), and snacks (291 items) [1] Group 2 - Japan has experienced over 1,000 food items increasing in price for four consecutive months [1] - The price surge is attributed to rising costs of raw materials, electricity, labor, and logistics [1] - The Teikoku Databank forecasts that up to 20,000 food items will increase in price throughout the year, a significant rise from 12,500 items last year [2]

Core Insights - Japan's core CPI excluding fresh food rose by 3.1% year-on-year in July, slightly down from 3.3% in June, but still significantly above the central bank's 2% target [1] - A deeper inflation indicator, which excludes both energy and fresh food, remained high at 3.4%, indicating persistent price pressures in Japan [1] - Despite a 0.3% year-on-year decline in energy prices due to restored subsidies, rice prices surged by 90.7% year-on-year, and processed food prices saw a monthly increase of 8.3%, the highest in nearly a year [1] - Analysts believe that if inflation remains elevated, the Bank of Japan may end its decade-long ultra-loose monetary policy and initiate gradual interest rate hikes within the year [1] - A survey conducted from August 12 to 19 revealed that 63% of respondents expect the key interest rate to rise from 0.50% to 0.75% later this year, a significant increase from 54% the previous month [1] - Despite expectations of a slowdown in the U.S. economy leading to potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, over 70% of economists believe this will not affect the Bank of Japan's policy trajectory [1] - In the short term, 92% of economists anticipate that the interest rate will remain unchanged at the mid-September meeting, but there is a consensus for action in the fourth quarter [1] - Among 40 experts providing timelines, 38% favor October for a potential rate hike, 30% lean towards January next year, and 18% bet on December [1][2]

Core Insights - Japan's inflation remains stubbornly high, with July's core CPI rising 3.1% year-on-year, above market expectations and the Bank of Japan's 2% target [1][3] - The core inflation slowdown is attributed to a 0.3% decline in energy prices, marking the first drop since March 2024, but underlying inflation pressures persist [1][3] - The "core-core" CPI, excluding fresh food and energy, held steady at a 3.4% year-on-year increase, indicating persistent inflationary trends [1][3] Inflation Dynamics - Rice prices surged by 90.7% year-on-year in July, despite a decrease from June's 100.2% increase, causing widespread dissatisfaction among consumers [4][6] - The rise in rice prices has led to a chain reaction, with processed food prices increasing by 8.3%, the fastest rate since September 2023, while service prices remained stable at 1.5% [4][6] - Rising rents and soaring rice prices are contributing to increased costs in processed foods and dining out, putting political pressure on the government [6][7] Market Reactions - Following the inflation data release, Japanese government bond yields rose, and market expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike by the end of October increased from approximately 42% to 51% [3][7] - Economists suggest that the window for a rate hike is approaching, supported by strong economic growth over five consecutive quarters [7] - The market anticipates that the Bank of Japan will maintain its current policy in September but is closely watching the October meeting for potential changes [7]

Core Insights - Despite a slowdown in the pace of price growth, Japan's consumer inflation remains significantly above the Bank of Japan's target of 2%, driven by persistently high rice prices, leading to increased market speculation about a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan this year [1][6][7] Inflation Data - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July rose by 3.1% year-on-year, slightly down from 3.3% in the previous month, while economists had expected a 3.0% increase [1][7] - A deeper price measure, excluding both energy and fresh food, remained stable at a 3.4% increase, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in Japan [1][4] Economic Commentary - Economists emphasize that a decline in core CPI does not necessarily indicate weakening inflation, as food prices continue to rise, reflecting companies' willingness to pass on costs to consumers [4][8] - The recent drop in energy prices contributed to the overall inflation slowdown, but underlying price pressures remain strong due to rising rice prices and labor costs [4][5] Market Expectations - Market expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan have increased, with a 51% probability of a rate increase by the end of October, up from 45% prior to the inflation data release [7][8] - The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds reached its highest level since 2008, driven by market bets on rising policy rates [7] Political Context - Rising living costs have led to significant public dissatisfaction, impacting the recent elections and putting pressure on Prime Minister Kishida's government to consider more fiscal measures to support consumers [5][8] Future Projections - Economists predict that while the Bank of Japan could raise rates based on inflation data, they may wait to assess wage growth dynamics and the impact of monetary policy on global markets, with December or January being more likely for a rate hike, though October remains a possibility [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trade agreement framework reached between the United States and the European Union, highlighting key areas of cooperation and tariff adjustments across various sectors [3]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Framework - The trade agreement framework includes 19 key points covering agricultural products, automobiles, aircraft, semiconductor chips, energy, EU investments in the US, environmental regulations, cybersecurity agreements, and digital trade barriers [3]. - The EU will eliminate tariffs on all US industrial products and provide preferential market access for various US agricultural products, including nuts, dairy, fresh and processed fruits and vegetables, processed foods, seeds, soybean oil, and meat products [4]. - The EU will extend the terms regarding lobster from the 2020 agreement, which was set to expire in July 2025, and expand the product range to include processed lobster [4]. Group 2: Tariff Adjustments - The US will apply the higher of the Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariff rate or a 15% tariff rate on most EU goods, which includes automobiles, pharmaceuticals, semiconductor chips, and timber [5][6]. - Starting September 1, 2025, the US will only apply MFN tariffs to certain products from the EU, including non-renewable natural resources, all aircraft and aircraft parts, generic drugs, and their raw materials [6]. Group 3: Energy and Investment Commitments - The EU plans to purchase US energy products, including liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear products, with expected purchases reaching $750 billion by 2028 [7]. - The EU commits to acquiring at least $40 billion worth of US artificial intelligence chips for the construction of data centers in Europe [7]. - European companies are expected to invest an additional $600 billion in strategic sectors in the US by 2028 [7]. Group 4: Future Cooperation - The EU will continue discussions with the US to negotiate further tariff reductions and identify additional areas for cooperation [9]. - The European Commission will initiate the implementation of the agreement's main content with the support of EU member states and the European Parliament [9].

Core Insights - In August, over 1,000 food items in Japan are set to increase in price, with an average rise of 11% [1][3] - This marks the third consecutive month where more than 1,000 food items have seen price hikes in Japan [3] Group 1: Price Increase Details - A recent survey by Teikoku Databank revealed that 1,010 food items will see price increases, which is approximately 1.5 times the number from the same period last year [3] - The price increase includes dairy products, processed foods, and frozen foods [3] Group 2: Contributing Factors - The current wave of food price increases is attributed to rising costs of raw materials, electricity, labor, and logistics [5] - In the first 11 months of this year, the number of food items confirmed to increase in price is expected to reach 19,400, a 50% increase compared to the same period last year [5] Group 3: Historical Context - The last significant food price surge in Japan occurred in 2023, with over 32,000 food items experiencing price increases, the highest in 30 years [5] - Factors contributing to the previous surge included substantial increases in raw material prices and the depreciation of the yen, which raised import costs [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the agricultural trade between China and South Korea has steadily increased since the signing of the free trade agreement in 2015, with a balanced trade structure benefiting both sides [1] - South Korea primarily imports fresh agricultural products such as fruits and vegetables from China, while exporting processed foods to China [1] - Climate change significantly impacts South Korea's agriculture due to limited farmland, leading to price volatility in agricultural products, which can be mitigated by importing fresh produce from China [1] Group 2 - Technological innovation is seen as a crucial driver for agricultural development in both countries, with a focus on cooperation in agricultural technology [2] - The signing of the free trade agreement and both countries being members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) provides opportunities for collaboration in various fields [2] - There is currently no established guideline or roadmap for cooperation between China and South Korea under the RCEP framework, but increased communication may lead to future developments [2]

Group 1: Inflation Data - The Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding fresh food rose by 2.9% year-on-year in July, down from 3.1% in June, marking the first drop below 3% since March this year [1] - The decline in inflation is attributed to the Tokyo government's summer water fee exemption and a gradual decrease in energy prices, with Tokyo water fees dropping by 34.6%, the largest decline since records began in 1971 [1][4] - Core inflation, excluding energy prices, remained steady at 3.1%, indicating persistent underlying price pressures [4] Group 2: Economic Analysis - Key factors for the inflation decline include adjustments in energy prices, water prices, and fluctuations in rice prices, with expectations for continued cooling in inflation rates [4] - Despite the decrease in electricity and gas costs, household living cost pressures remain, particularly due to soaring rice prices, which increased by 81.8% year-on-year in July [4] - The Japanese government has implemented measures to release emergency reserves to curb rice prices, but the effects are not yet fully realized [4] Group 3: Political and Economic Implications - Voter dissatisfaction with rising consumer prices was reflected in the recent election results, leading to a historic defeat for Prime Minister Kishida [5] - Investors are closely monitoring potential government responses to inflation, including cash subsidies or adjustments to consumption tax, with the Prime Minister previously proposing cash subsidies [5] - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain the policy interest rate at 0.5%, but inflation data and political developments may influence future decisions [5]

Core Points - Indian Prime Minister Modi is set to visit the UK for two days starting on the 23rd, with a significant free trade agreement expected to be signed on the 24th [1][3] - This visit marks Modi's fourth trip to the UK since taking office [1] Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - The free trade agreement will allow 99% of Indian exports to the UK to enjoy zero tariffs, covering sectors such as jewelry, textiles, engineering products, leather, clothing, and processed foods [3] - In exchange, 90% of UK exports to India will receive phased tariff reductions, with immediate cuts for Scottish whisky tariffs from 150% to 75%, and further reductions to 40% over ten years [3] - Current tariffs on UK automobiles exceeding 100% will be reduced to 10% under a quota system [3] Group 2: Economic Significance - The agreement is seen as the most economically significant trade deal for the UK post-Brexit and marks India's first major free trade agreement outside Asia [3] - Analysts suggest that this agreement signifies the beginning of a long-term economic partnership between the two nations [3]