每经记者｜张怀水 每经编辑｜陈旭 随着新冠肺炎疫情在全球持续蔓延，目前除南极洲外六大洲均有确诊病例。截至北京时间3月2日19时，全球除中国外共65个国家和地区报告新冠肺炎累计确 诊病例9000余例。 此前世界卫生组织总干事谭德塞2月28日宣布，将新冠肺炎疫情全球风险级别由此前的"高"上调为"非常高"。 在疫情暴发初期，口罩供应短缺在国内外都曾引起过抢购。不过随着中国疫情防控态势逐渐好转以及国内产能大量释放，中国国内市场的口罩已不再是一货 难求，而在韩国、意大利等新增确诊病例大量出现的国家，口罩仍是紧缺商品。 不过当疫情在更多国家蔓延的同时，一个令人啼笑皆非的现象开始出现——在日本、美国、澳大利亚等多个国家，市民涌入超市，大量购买和囤积日常生活 物资，其中最具有代表性的商品之一竟然是卫生纸。 据日本放送协会（NHK）报道，受民众抢购潮影响，熊本市在卫生纸和纸巾等日用品方面出现缺货，有的商店在卫生纸区还贴出告示："每人最多只能买一 个"。 Pr Paulon . res . D+8 TTATIN UNN DOONGULOTE THE THE CONSULTION 70 000000 . 11:4021050026 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rise of AI-generated fake images has led to a significant increase in fraudulent refund claims in the e-commerce sector, causing distress among merchants and undermining trust in the online shopping ecosystem [3][19][36]. Group 1: Impact on E-commerce - E-commerce platforms are facing a surge in fraudulent refund requests, where individuals use AI-generated images to falsely claim product defects [3][17]. - Merchants report that customers are submitting obviously fake images, sometimes with AI watermarks still visible, to justify their refund requests [5][8]. - The "only refund" policy, initially designed to streamline customer service, has become a burden for merchants as they now have to scrutinize refund requests more closely [17][22]. Group 2: Consequences for Merchants - Small businesses, particularly those in lower-tier cities, are severely affected by these fraudulent activities, with malicious refunds threatening their daily operations and livelihoods [23][24]. - The financial strain from these scams can wipe out the profits from multiple sales, pushing merchants into a precarious position where they must choose between accepting orders or risking losses [24][25]. - Merchants are increasingly raising prices to offset the risks associated with potential fraudulent refunds, which ultimately impacts consumers [22][36]. Group 3: Regulatory and Platform Responses - In response to the growing issue, regulatory bodies have begun implementing measures to combat AI misuse, including guidelines to prevent the malicious use of AI-generated content [29][30]. - E-commerce platforms are enhancing their verification systems to protect merchants' rights and prevent fraudulent activities [30][32]. - The establishment of an account integrity system aims to track and penalize users who engage in fraudulent refund practices [30][32]. Group 4: Trust and Ethical Considerations - The ongoing fraudulent activities are eroding the foundational trust that underpins the e-commerce ecosystem, leading to a situation where both consumers and merchants are increasingly suspicious of each other [19][36]. - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining ethical standards in transactions, advocating for a return to simple, honest exchanges between buyers and sellers [38][39].

Core Insights - The "Double Eleven" shopping festival has seen a shift in consumer behavior, with younger consumers becoming more strategic and practical in their purchasing decisions, often prioritizing the use of coupons before making purchases [1][9] - The trend of "coupon hoarding" has emerged among local youth, reflecting their approach to uncertainty and desire for immediate benefits while retaining the option to change their minds [2][4] - Local businesses are adapting to the competitive landscape by integrating online and offline strategies, utilizing promotional activities to attract customers and increase sales [5][7] Consumer Behavior - Young consumers are increasingly purchasing multiple coupons during the "Double Eleven" period, with some spending thousands of yuan on local dining and service vouchers [2][4] - The practice of "coupon hoarding" has become popular in local social groups, with many sharing their coupon acquisitions, indicating a community-driven approach to savings [4] - The emotional aspect of shopping is highlighted, as consumers find satisfaction in securing discounts and offers, which has become a lifestyle choice [1][4] Business Strategies - Local merchants are leveraging promotional strategies such as government-subsidized coupons and online-offline activities to drive traffic and sales, with some reporting a 5% increase in average transaction value during the season [5][7] - Businesses are aligning their pricing and promotional strategies with online platforms to remain competitive, offering similar prices and additional incentives to attract customers [7] - The shift from price competition to service-oriented strategies is evident, as businesses focus on enhancing customer experience through value-added services rather than solely relying on discounts [8] Market Trends - The rising international gold prices have led some consumers to view gold as a safe-haven asset, with significant interest during the "Double Eleven" period, including the rapid sell-out of promotional gold coupons [8] - The demand for smaller gold items has increased, prompting retailers to adjust their marketing strategies to focus on customer service and added value rather than traditional price cuts [8] - The evolving consumer mindset reflects a broader trend towards rational and emotional purchasing decisions, with a focus on maximizing value in the face of changing market conditions [9]

Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term market focuses on the potential boost to the market price due to the possibly low number of old warehouse receipts after cancellation, but the rebound space is limited under the weak fundamental situation. It is recommended to try shorting at high prices [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp futures contract 01: The previous settlement price was 5320 yuan/ton, the closing price was 5368 yuan/ton, a 0.90% increase [7] - Shandong wood pulp market: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp was 4870 - 6500 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of Shandong Yinxing was 5500 yuan/ton [7] - Arauco's October wood pulp offer: Softwood pulp Yinxing was 680 dollars/ton, a 20 - dollar decrease from last month; natural pulp Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged from last month; hardwood pulp Mingxing was 540 dollars/ton, unchanged from last month [8] - European wood pulp in September: The inventory was 722.3 thousand tons, a 3% month - on - month increase and a 16.1% year - on - year increase; the consumption was 813.2 thousand tons, a 16.3% month - on - month increase and a 1.6% year - on - year decrease [8] - As of November 6, 2025: The weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased 2.31% month - on - month, with inventory at Qingdao Port and Tianjin Port decreasing [8] - Downstream paper products: The performance of downstream base paper remained differentiated, the demand side of the pulp market increased slowly, and the traditional peak season started late. Double - offset paper downstream printers mainly stocked up for rigid demand, and the publication bidding had not yet increased significantly, with overall market demand being weak. The cumulative year - on - year decline in the total profit of the papermaking and paper products industry continued to narrow [8] 2. Industry News - On November 3, the re - approved papermaking production line technical renovation project of Guangdong Jiefeng Industrial Investment Co., Ltd. was approved. After re - approval, the project will produce 225 thousand tons of corrugated paper and 15 thousand tons of toilet paper annually [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including import softwood pulp spot price in Shandong, pulp futures price, pulp spot - futures price difference, needle - broadleaf price difference, inter - delivery spread, warehouse receipt volume, domestic main port pulp inventory, European main port wood pulp inventory, prices and price differences of coated paper, double - offset paper, white cardboard, and whiteboard paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][17][19][24][25][27]

Core Insights - Costco revealed its real-estate strategy alongside its fourth-quarter earnings, celebrating significant anniversaries for its hot-dog combo and Kirkland Signature brand [1] - The company continues to expand, opening 10 new warehouses in the fourth quarter and a total of 27 for the year, bringing its global total to 914 [1][2] - Costco plans to open 35 new warehouses in 2026, indicating strong domestic and international growth opportunities [2] Real Estate Ownership - Unlike many retailers, Costco owns the majority of its warehouses, with a real-estate portfolio valued at $31.9 billion [2] - Approximately 80% of Costco's sites are owned, each valued conservatively between $25 million and $35 million [3] - The company’s strategy emphasizes ownership over leasing, allowing it to operate independently of landlords [3] Sales Performance - Costco's "everyday value items" are crucial for customer retention, especially during economic uncertainty, with significant sales figures reported [4] - In 2025, Costco sold over 245 million hot-dog combos and over 157 million rotisserie chickens, showcasing the popularity of its low-priced offerings [4] - The $1.50 hot-dog and soda combo symbolizes Costco's commitment to low prices, with sales growing by over 23% in just over a year [4]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market reflects the steady recovery of the real economy, with the new consumption trend gaining momentum, driven by policy support and evolving consumer behavior [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Since August, the new consumption trend has shown a resurgence, with certain trendy toy IP companies experiencing a maximum increase of over 30% [2] - The macroeconomic environment indicates a moderate recovery, with a consensus on expanding domestic demand, suggesting that the consumer sector is in a phase of stabilization and potential growth [2] - The current consumption landscape differs from the 2019-2020 period, characterized by a shift towards emotional spending and cultural confidence, requiring fund managers to adopt a bottom-up stock selection approach [2][3] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Three main investment themes in new consumption are identified: spiritual consumption products like trendy gold jewelry, cost-effective mass consumer goods, and domestic beauty and personal care products [2][3] - The demand for trendy gold jewelry is shifting from traditional wedding uses to self-indulgence, with brands offering affordable, aesthetically pleasing products that appeal to younger consumers [3] - Cost-effective consumer goods are gaining traction as consumers prioritize value over brand loyalty, with strategies like bulk purchasing and reduced distribution costs enhancing market penetration [3] Group 3: Performance and Strategy - The funds managed by the company have shown significant growth, with net value growth rates of 29.50% and 23.84% for two products, outperforming their respective benchmarks [4] - The company aims to continue selecting companies with strong competitive advantages and barriers to entry in thriving industries to drive portfolio returns [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Lee & Man Paper Manufacturing's net profit after tax for the first half of the year increased by 7% year-on-year to 811 million HKD, reaching 56% of the bank's full-year forecast [1] - The company declared an interim dividend of 0.066 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of 35%, which is in line with historical levels [1] - Based on better-than-expected profit margins in the first half, the bank raised its earnings forecasts for Lee & Man Paper for the next two years by 16% and 3% respectively, reflecting a faster-than-expected profit recovery [1] Group 2 - In terms of business performance, the sales volume of packaging paper was 2.97 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1%, while the sales volume of tissue paper was 521,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 16% [1] - The net profit per ton for packaging paper remained stable at 105 HKD, while the net profit per ton for tissue paper exceeded expectations, reaching 960 HKD, and has consistently maintained around 1,000 HKD since the second half of 2023 [1] - Other income decreased by 35% year-on-year to 240 million HKD due to a reduction in government subsidies, while interest expenses fell by 34% year-on-year to 116 million HKD due to an optimized loan portfolio and the redemption of perpetual bonds [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities reports that Lee & Man Paper's net profit after tax for the first half of the year increased by 7% year-on-year to HKD 811 million, achieving 56% of the bank's full-year forecast [1] Financial Performance - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.066, with a payout ratio of 35%, consistent with historical levels [1] - The sales volume of packaging paper reached 2.97 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1% [1] - The sales volume of tissue paper was 521,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16% [1] Profitability - The net profit per ton for packaging paper remained stable at HKD 105 [1] - The net profit per ton for tissue paper exceeded expectations, reaching HKD 960, and has consistently maintained around HKD 1,000 since the second half of 2023 [1] Forecast Adjustments - Based on better-than-expected profit margins in the first half, the bank raised Lee & Man Paper's earnings forecasts for the next two years by 16% and 3% respectively [1] - The target price was increased from HKD 2.7 to HKD 3.2, with a reiterated "buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Lee & Man Paper Manufacturing reported a slight revenue decline of 2.2% to HKD 12.2 billion in the first half of 2025, but achieved stable profit growth with a net profit of HKD 0.811 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [1][3] Group 1: Market Environment and Company Performance - The Chinese paper industry is experiencing a mild recovery, yet faces challenges such as capacity growth, raw material price fluctuations, and changes in export markets [3] - Lee & Man's integrated pulp and paper strategy has demonstrated strong resilience against market challenges, allowing for flexible capacity adjustments and effective risk mitigation [3] - The company sold a total of 3.49 million tons of products, with an average net profit of HKD 232 per ton [3] Group 2: Business Segments and Growth Potential - The packaging paper segment benefits from favorable policies aimed at promoting green packaging and circular economy initiatives, which are expected to enhance profitability [4] - The company is expanding its packaging paper business in response to the growth of e-commerce logistics, leveraging its integrated and intelligent production capabilities [4] - The hygiene paper segment focuses on high-end and environmentally friendly products, with increasing demand expected as consumer living standards rise [6] Group 3: Financial Performance and Operational Efficiency - In 2024, the total revenue reached HKD 25.995 billion, an increase from HKD 24.937 billion in 2023, but still below HKD 29.170 billion in 2022 [6] - The gross margin improved from 10.03% in 2023 to 11.97% in 2024, indicating effective cost control and product structure optimization [6] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio increased from 46.82% in 2023 to 49.39% in 2024, highlighting the need for careful debt management [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rapid response and collaboration between Beijing Yicheng Foundation and Kanglong Chemical to provide essential supplies to areas affected by severe rainstorms in Beijing and Hebei, showcasing the effectiveness of public-private partnerships in disaster relief efforts [2][4]. Group 1: Emergency Response - The first batch of relief supplies, funded by donations, was delivered to the emergency areas in Miyun and Huairou districts within 48 hours, demonstrating a highly efficient "donation-procurement-shipment" model [2]. - The supplies included essential items such as toilet paper, rain boots, flashlights, drinking water, and portable gasoline generators, which were identified through a digital procurement platform [2][4]. Group 2: Organizational Collaboration - The rapid delivery of supplies filled local emergency needs and encouraged more companies in the Beijing Economic-Technological Development Area to participate in the relief efforts [4]. - The Yicheng Foundation has established a special donation channel to continuously gather support from businesses and the community for ongoing assistance to the disaster-stricken areas [4]. Group 3: Transparency and Accountability - The Yicheng Foundation utilized digital tools to ensure transparent management of the donation process, allowing for traceability and supervision of fund usage, which sets a standard for efficient disaster relief [4]. - The foundation has implemented over 200 projects in emergency relief and technology education, emphasizing its commitment to building a collaborative platform among enterprises, society, and government [4].