德黑兰方面周一宣称已平息抗议，但动荡似乎仍在持续。与此同时，有美国媒体援引熟悉内情的美国官 员报道称，美国总统特朗普倾向于对伊朗发动新一轮本土打击。 （原标题：原油市场风向生变! 伊朗风险引爆"上行保险"抢购潮 布油看涨期权交易量创纪录） 智通财经APP获悉，由于愈发担心伊朗国内的抗议活动升级与美国政府军事打击导致原油供应彻底中 断，原油期货市场的交易员们正以前所未有的速度排队购买对冲工具，以防国际油价短期内飙升，看涨 原油期权成交量迅速飙至创纪录高位。继上周五激增后，周一布伦特原油看涨期权交易迎来史上最繁忙 的单日成交。隐含波动率以及原油看涨押注的溢价也延续了自上周末以来的涨势，并且两者都升至自去 年6月美国与以色列轰炸伊朗以来的最高水平，表明市场对上行保险的需求正在上升。 根据ICE Futures Europe的初步统计数据，周一有超过556,000份的历史新高数量级别看涨期权被易手， 其中以近月合约的一系列大额价差交易为主，使得创纪录看涨期权交易成为一种相对便宜且愈发热门的 原油市场押注：若真的发生供应中断，油价可能突然飙升。 ?正如上述图表所显示的那样，原油市场波动率飙升，该衡量波动性的关键指标升至 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention a specific industry investment rating [1] Core View of the Report - Recently, the supply and demand of crude oil have improved, combined with a sharp increase in geopolitical risks, leading to a significant rise in prices. However, OPEC+ has sufficient idle capacity, and the long - term production increase of OPEC+ and the trade war will drag down future demand. Geopolitical risks are still high, and crude oil prices are volatile. It is recommended to operate cautiously and lightly buy crude oil call options [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, with continuous production increases. Saudi Arabia hopes to accelerate production increases in the future, but OPEC+ production growth is lower than expected. Supply pressure has been relieved due to factors such as wildfires in Canada, the deadlock in the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiations, and a decline in US oil drilling rig numbers. On the demand side, US economic data is better than expected, and market risk appetite has recovered. However, the pessimistic expectations of the global trade war on the economy have not been fully reversed, and the EIA has raised the forecast of global oil inventory growth in 2025. It is recommended to lightly buy crude oil call options and pay attention to the expansion of conflicts in the Middle East [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Today, the main crude oil futures contract 2508 rose 6.17% to 552.7 yuan per ton, with a minimum price of 530.2 yuan per ton and a maximum price of 556.3 yuan per ton. The open interest increased by 4,936 to 38,030 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - OPEC maintains the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 at 1.3 million barrels per day and in 2026 at 1.28 million barrels per day. EIA lowers the US crude oil production forecast in 2026 by 120,000 barrels per day to 13.37 million barrels per day, and raises the global oil inventory growth forecast in 2025. IEA lowers the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 and 2026 by 20,000 barrels per day respectively. US EIA data shows that the US crude oil inventory decreased more than expected, but the refined oil inventory increased more than expected, resulting in an overall increase in oil inventories [3] Supply - side - OPEC's April crude oil production increased by 128,000 barrels per day to 26.838 million barrels per day, and its May 2025 production increased by 184,000 barrels per day to 27.022 million barrels per day, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia. US crude oil production increased by 20,000 barrels per day to 13.428 million barrels per day in the week of June 6. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased, and the weekly demand for gasoline and diesel increased, driving a 1.20% increase in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4]

Group 1 - The core sentiment in the oil options market is bullish due to escalating conflicts between Israel and Iran [1] - There has been unusually high trading activity in call options, with thousands of contracts traded at strike prices above $80 per barrel for August [1] - Approximately 2,000 contracts for August Brent call options were executed at strike prices of $100 and $101, indicating strong market interest [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a significant increase in oil prices, with Brent crude rising over 5.5% and WTI approaching $75 per barrel, raising concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply from the Middle East [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Oil prices experienced their largest increase in three years last Friday, rising over 13% before slightly retracting [3]. - Brent crude is currently priced above $76 per barrel, while WTI is nearing $75 per barrel [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Analysts are preparing for potential further disruptions in oil supply due to the ongoing conflict, particularly as Israel targets Iran's energy infrastructure [3]. - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for oil, could lead to prices soaring to $130 per barrel, exacerbating global inflation [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The market is showing increasing concern over supply risks, with significant buying of call options indicating expectations for oil prices to rise above $80 [6]. - The price spread between two nearby December contracts has increased by $1.29 per barrel, reflecting heightened supply-demand concerns [6]. Group 4: Current Supply Situation - Despite the ongoing conflict, major oil facilities have not yet been damaged, providing some reassurance to the market [9]. - The International Energy Agency has indicated that global oil supply remains adequate, even with recent increases in OPEC+ production [9].