| | 申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | | | | | LL PP | | | | | | | | | 1月 5月 9月 1月 5月 9月 | | | | | | | | | 前日收盘价 | 6506 | 6737 | 6772 | 6340 | 6560 | 6607 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 | 6425 | 6674 | 6715 | 6302 | 6514 | 6563 | | 货 | 涨跌 | 81 | 63 | 57 | 38 | 46 | 44 | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | 1.26% | 0.94% | 0.85% | 0.60% | 0.71% | 0.67% | | 场 | 成交量 | 531 | 500823 | 35734 | 492 | 501126 | 42288 | | | 持仓量 | 7553 | 4907 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price monitoring data for December indicates mixed trends in the prices of key commodities compared to November, with some prices rising and others falling, while overall trends show more decreases than increases compared to the same period last year [1] Group 1: Main Food Prices - Grain prices show mixed trends, with wheat averaging 117.67 yuan per 50 kg, down 0.84% month-on-month but up 0.57% year-on-year [2] - Corn prices increased to 105.67 yuan per 50 kg, up 0.64% month-on-month and up 6.02% year-on-year [3] - Pork prices continue to decline, with rib pork averaging 10.50 yuan per 500 g, down 4.55% month-on-month and down 22.22% year-on-year [3] - Vegetable prices have seen a significant increase, with an average price of 4.17 yuan per 500 g, up 14.23% month-on-month and up 14.82% year-on-year [4] - Apple prices decreased to 5.40 yuan per 500 g, down 9.09% month-on-month but up 19.21% year-on-year [5] Group 2: Main Production Material Prices - Agricultural material prices are mixed, with urea at 2.13 yuan per kg, down 0.47% month-on-month, while diammonium phosphate increased by 1.17% [6] - Construction material prices are generally rising, with rebar averaging 3,360.00 yuan per ton, up 1.36% month-on-month [7] - Coal prices remain stable, with mixed trends; mixed coal averaging 501.00 yuan per ton, unchanged month-on-month, and large carbon at 685.00 yuan per ton, up 1.48% month-on-month [7]

Group 1: Main Food Prices - The prices of meat, poultry, and eggs showed mixed trends, with average retail prices for pork and lean pork at 10.68 yuan/kg and 11.82 yuan/kg, down 3.52% and 3.19% respectively [2] - Beef and lamb prices were 32.00 yuan/kg and 35.21 yuan/kg, with beef down 0.47% and lamb stable [2] - Chicken and egg prices averaged 7.99 yuan/kg and 3.34 yuan/kg, with chicken down 0.62% and eggs up 3.09% [2] Group 2: Grain and Oil Prices - Grain and oil prices remained stable, with wheat and corn at 1.21 yuan/kg and 1.07 yuan/kg, both unchanged [3] - The average retail price for japonica rice and premium flour was 2.55 yuan/kg and 1.88 yuan/kg, with japonica rice stable and premium flour up 0.53% [3] - Retail prices for peanut oil and soybean oil (5L) were 159.34 yuan and 60.76 yuan, both unchanged [3] Group 3: Pork Market Analysis - Pork prices have been fluctuating downwards due to high supply from large-scale farms aiming to meet annual output targets [4] - The demand for pork typically peaks in December, but the late timing of the 2026 Spring Festival has delayed the seasonal demand [5] - Despite potential support for pork prices from seasonal demand as temperatures drop, the overall supply remains high, limiting price rebound potential [5] Group 4: Egg Market Analysis - Egg prices have rebounded due to a significant reduction in the number of new laying hens and an increase in the culling of older hens [6] - Demand for eggs has increased due to holiday preparations and the rising cost of alternative protein sources like pork [6] - The cold weather has also made egg storage easier, prompting traders to stock up, contributing to a rise in both volume and price [6] Group 5: Vegetable Price Trends - Vegetable prices have shown seasonal increases, with an average price of 3.36 yuan/kg, up 3.16% [7] - The price increase is attributed to lower supply due to adverse weather conditions affecting growth and harvest [9] - The transition to winter growing methods has raised production costs, further driving up vegetable prices [9] Group 6: Agricultural Production Material Prices - Agricultural production material prices showed slight changes, with ammonium bicarbonate at 1.15 yuan/kg, down 0.69% [10] - Prices for compound fertilizers and other materials like potassium chloride and urea increased slightly, with average prices at 3.19 yuan/kg, 3.44 yuan/kg, 4.29 yuan/kg, and 1.87 yuan/kg, up 1.20%, 0.91%, 0.89%, and 0.54% respectively [10] - Prices for agricultural films and pesticides have decreased slightly, with average prices at 13.25 yuan/kg and 12.33 yuan/kg, down 1.44% and 1.03% respectively [10]

晚播小麦遇寒潮，德州种粮大户和农技人员出招应对 麦田盖上"保温被" 今年德州冬小麦普遍播期晚、出苗晚，田间管理尤为关键。几天前的一场寒潮与降雪，给小麦的保 温保墒、促弱转壮带来了一些新问题，德州种粮大户和农技人员及时出招应对。 日前，在武城县武城镇南北官庄村种粮大户刘凯的麦地里，工人分工协作，正有条不紊地为小麦幼 苗铺设地膜，一派繁忙的冬管景象。"铺地膜的作用首先是保墒，能锁住田间水分，能提高地温，地温 能提高到1～3℃。"刘凯介绍。 在这个老把式看来，提高地温促使小麦春节前有效分蘖很重要。对于晚播小麦来说，这个时候的寒 潮不利于麦苗生长。刘凯说，现在麦苗虽然出了，但还是"一根针"的状态。要想来年产量有保障，春节 前分蘖，提高亩穗数很关键。"而相比来年春天分蘖，春节前分蘖更能长出有效蘖。" 刘凯从自己种的100亩小麦中，选出苗情较弱的23亩，组织人工全部铺上了地膜。"总成本大约在 100元/亩。地膜加人工，每亩80元左右；明年3月份'练苗'时还需要一次打孔放风，每亩要20元左 右。"刘凯说。 这是刘凯第一次尝试小麦地膜覆盖栽培技术，他坦言："为麦田盖层'保温被'，也是抱着试验的心 态。"他有自己的考量：自己种 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core View - Polyolefin futures are running weakly, with stable spot prices for linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina. The overall downstream demand side's overall operating rate seems to have reached its peak, and demand is steadily being released. The previous price movement was influenced by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market, leading to a lower valuation of polyolefins. Short - term attention should be paid to whether the cost represented by crude oil can stop falling, the rhythm of upstream supply - demand digestion, and future domestic consumption potential [2]. Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6272, 6320, and 6367 respectively, down - 161, - 156, and - 147 from the day before, with percentage drops of - 2.50%, - 2.41%, and - 2.26% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6132, 6213, and 6240 respectively, down - 70, - 66, and - 63 from the day before, with percentage drops of - 1.13%, - 1.05%, and - 1.00% respectively [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 66179, 721995, and 14047 respectively, and the open interests were 89235, 598214, and 18283 respectively, with changes in open interest of - 16247, 36438, and 4333 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 51796, 375015, and 6257 respectively, and the open interests were 124668, 533959, and 30093 respectively, with changes in open interest of - 17966, 10464, and 397 respectively [2]. - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 48, - 47, and 95 respectively, compared to previous values of - 43, - 38, and 81. For PP, the current spreads are - 81, - 27, and 108 respectively, compared to previous values of - 77, - 24, and 101 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film are 2150 yuan/ton, 5915 yuan/ton, 576 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6020 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively, with some prices unchanged from the previous day [2]. - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6350 - 6800 yuan/ton, 6350 - 6600 yuan/ton, and 6350 - 6700 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6050 - 6250 yuan/ton, 6050 - 6150 yuan/ton, and 6100 - 6350 yuan/ton respectively, with some price ranges unchanged from the previous day [2]. News - On Friday (December 19), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $56.66 per barrel, up $0.51 or 0.91% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $55.82 - $56.90. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $60.47 per barrel, up $0.65 or 1.09% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $59.40 - $60.65 [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures are trading in a consolidation pattern. On the spot side, the prices of linear LL from Sinopec and PetroChina are stable, and the prices of拉丝 PP from Sinopec and PetroChina are also stable. Fundamentally, the overall operating rate of the downstream demand side seems to have reached its peak, and demand is steadily being released. Previously, the disk drive was affected by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market, leading to a lower valuation of polyolefins. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the cost represented by crude oil can stop falling, the rhythm of upstream supply - demand digestion, and the future domestic consumption potential [2]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6516, 6543, and 6568 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, they decreased by 6, 14, and 15 respectively, with daily price changes of -0.09%, -0.21%, and -0.23%. The trading volumes were 74760, 300927, and 6417, and the open interests were 135903, 510143, and 10432, with changes of -14270, 21355, and 1247 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -27, -25, and 52, compared with the previous values of -35, -26, and 61 [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6192, 6256, and 6291 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, they increased by 14, 2, and 14 respectively, with daily price changes of 0.23%, 0.03%, and 0.22%. The trading volumes were 128985, 303323, and 6466, and the open interests were 195372, 497942, and 26213, with changes of -23998, 11398, and 1729 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -64, -35, and 99, compared with the previous values of -76, -23, and 99 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2131 yuan/ton, 6055 yuan/ton, 594 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6020 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous values, methanol futures increased by 4 yuan/ton, Shandong propylene decreased by 10 yuan/ton, South China propane decreased by 5 dollars/ton, and North China powder materials decreased by 20 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Market - Middle Reaches**: For LL, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6550 - 6850, 6500 - 6750, and 6500 - 6900 yuan/ton respectively, remaining the same as the previous values. For PP, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6100 - 6300, 6050 - 6200, and 6100 - 6350 yuan/ton respectively, also remaining the same as the previous values [2]. News - On Tuesday (December 16), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $55.27 per barrel, down $1.55 from the previous trading day, a decrease of 2.73%, with a trading range of $54.98 - $56.70. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $58.92 per barrel, down $1.64 from the previous trading day, a decrease of 2.71%, with a trading range of $58.72 - $60.40 [2].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Polyolefin futures continued to be weak during the day session and rebounded at night. The overall downstream demand has reached a high level and is being steadily released. Previously, the price was affected by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market, causing the valuation of polyolefins to decline. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the cost represented by crude oil can stop falling and the rhythm of upstream supply - demand digestion [2] Group 3: Summary by Category Futures Market - **Price and Change**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6476, 6486, and 6519 respectively, with price drops of -58, -72, and -81 and declines of -0.89%, -1.10%, and -1.23%. For PP, the corresponding closing prices were 6129, 6168, and 6211, with drops of -48, -73, and -69 and declines of -0.78%, -1.17%, and -1.10% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes for LL in January, May, and September contracts were 168516, 367973, and 5244, and the open interests were 184121, 479677, and 8875, with changes of -42964, 28241, and 1378. For PP, the trading volumes were 285479, 285582, and 3813, and the open interests were 293184, 443312, and 20304, with changes of -58109, 42697, and 528 [2] - **Spread**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -10, -33, and 43, compared to the previous values of -24, -42, and 66. For PP, the corresponding spreads were -39, -43, and 82, compared to the previous values of -64, -39, and 103 [2] Raw Material and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2104 yuan/ton, 6090 yuan/ton, 609 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6000 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2123 yuan/ton, 6090 yuan/ton, 603 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6040 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton [2] - **Spot Middle - Stream**: The current prices of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6600 - 6900 yuan/ton, 6450 - 6750 yuan/ton, and 6500 - 6900 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 6600 - 6900 yuan/ton, 6550 - 6800 yuan/ton, and 6600 - 7000 yuan/ton. For PP, the current prices in the three markets were 6100 - 6300 yuan/ton, 6000 - 6150 yuan/ton, and 6100 - 6300 yuan/ton, and the previous values were 6100 - 6300 yuan/ton, 6000 - 6200 yuan/ton, and 6150 - 6350 yuan/ton [2] News - On Friday (December 12), the settlement price of the West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $57.44 per barrel, down $0.16 or 0.28% from the previous day, with a trading range of $57.15 - $60. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures contract for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $61.12 per barrel, down $0.16 or 0.26% from the previous day, with a trading range of $60.81 - $61.86 [2] Comment and Strategy - For linear LL, Sinopec kept prices stable, while some prices of PetroChina were lowered by 70. For拉丝 PP, both Sinopec and PetroChina kept prices stable [2]

Core Viewpoint - The increasing adoption of futures tools by petrochemical companies in China is enhancing price risk management across the industry chain, leading to cost reduction and improved competitiveness for both upstream and downstream partners [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Adoption of Futures Tools - The petrochemical industry is increasingly utilizing futures tools to manage price risks amid volatile raw material prices, creating a collaborative risk defense system across the supply chain [2][3]. - Long-established companies like Longchang Group have developed a mature futures and spot trading model, which effectively manages operational risks and supports downstream partners in optimizing procurement costs [2][4]. Group 2: Risk Management Strategies - Longchang Group employs hedging strategies to reduce inventory exposure risks and mitigate operational risks from raw material price fluctuations [2][5]. - The company dynamically manages exposure through a "rolling inventory" concept, continuously switching different inventory resources to lower costs and enhance profitability without increasing exposure [2][5]. Group 3: Downstream Support and Cost Optimization - Futures and options tools are helping downstream companies optimize costs and improve efficiency, allowing them to better serve their end customers [3][6]. - Longchang Group's unique combination of futures and spot trading provides differentiated risk management services throughout the entire business chain, enhancing customer relationships and loyalty [5][8]. Group 4: Regional Economic Development - The use of futures tools is significantly contributing to the collaborative development of the petrochemical industry and supporting the economic transformation of the northwest region of China [9][11]. - The futures market provides essential price information and risk management capabilities, enabling companies in the northwest to stabilize their operations and improve their competitive edge [11][12]. Group 5: Training and Knowledge Enhancement - Longchang Group is actively involved in training initiatives to enhance the understanding and application of futures tools among regional enterprises, addressing the knowledge gap compared to coastal regions [10][11]. - The company aims to promote practical experiences in financial derivatives usage, helping businesses develop tailored risk management models that align with their operational realities [12].

Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing adoption of futures tools by petrochemical companies in China to manage price risks and enhance competitiveness within the industry [1][2][3] Group 1: Industry Trends - The development of the futures market in China is maturing, leading to a higher participation rate from industry clients [1] - Futures tools are becoming essential for petrochemical companies to mitigate risks associated with volatile raw material prices [1][3] - The collaboration between upstream and downstream enterprises is being reshaped through the use of futures tools, creating a risk defense system across the supply chain [1][3] Group 2: Company Case Study - Longchang Group has established a comprehensive futures and spot trading model, which effectively manages its operational risks while assisting downstream partners in optimizing procurement costs [1][2] - The company has set up a dedicated futures management department to oversee trading processes and risk management [1][2] - Longchang Group's approach includes dynamic management of inventory exposure and the use of financial instruments to hedge against price fluctuations [2][3] Group 3: Downstream Impact - Downstream clients, such as Jiyang Plastic Co., have benefited from risk management tools like options and basis trading, which help stabilize production costs amid price volatility [4][5] - The introduction of "option trading" has allowed smaller enterprises to manage costs more effectively, reducing the financial burden associated with traditional futures contracts [5][6] - The use of futures tools has transformed the procurement strategy of companies from a passive to an active cost management approach, enhancing overall operational stability [7] Group 4: Regional Economic Development - The application of futures tools is significantly contributing to the economic transformation of the Northwest region of China, which is characterized by its reliance on energy, chemicals, and agricultural products [9][10] - Longchang Group is actively involved in training and supporting local enterprises to better utilize futures tools, thereby enhancing their competitiveness and market participation [8][9] - The futures market provides a transparent pricing mechanism that aids in fair trade practices and improves operational efficiency for regional businesses [9][10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures declined. On the spot market, the prices of linear LL from Sinopec remained stable, while those from PetroChina were partially reduced by 100 yuan. For drawn PP, the prices from both Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Fundamentally, the overall operating rate of the downstream demand side seems to have reached its peak, and demand is steadily being released. However, market sentiment is still affected by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market. In the short term, the valuation of polyolefins themselves is at a low level, and after the current rebound, they generally maintain a low-level oscillation process [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6643 yuan, 6708 yuan, and 6754 yuan respectively, with declines of -31 yuan, -34 yuan, and -34 yuan, and decreases of -0.46%, -0.50%, and -0.50% respectively. The trading volumes were 234,875, 153,809, and 1,942 respectively, and the open interests were 374,193, 315,983, and 5,089 respectively, with changes of -19,347, +21,166, and +386 respectively. The current spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were -65 yuan, -46 yuan, and 111 yuan respectively [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6275 yuan, 6370 yuan, and 6409 yuan respectively, with declines of -12 yuan, -12 yuan, and -11 yuan, and decreases of -0.19%, -0.19%, and -0.17% respectively. The trading volumes were 299,256, 139,493, and 2,275 respectively, and the open interests were 423,064, 319,140, and 17,920 respectively, with changes of -11,444, +12,252, and +124 respectively. The current spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were -95 yuan, -39 yuan, and 134 yuan respectively [2]. Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2093 yuan/ton, 6100 yuan/ton, 589 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6083 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6750 - 7150 yuan, 6600 - 6900 yuan, and 6750 - 7100 yuan respectively. The current price ranges of PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6200 - 6350 yuan, 6100 - 6250 yuan, and 6200 - 6450 yuan respectively [2]. News - On Monday (December 8), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.88 per barrel, down $1.20 from the previous trading day, a decrease of 2.00%, with a trading range of $58.68 - $60.30. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $62.49 per barrel, down $1.26 from the previous trading day, a decrease of 1.98%, with a trading range of $62.34 - $63.96 [2].