Core Viewpoint - Guohai Securities report indicates that Ximai Foods achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 81 million yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.46% [1] - The company maintains its leading position in the Chinese oat grain market, focusing on the aging population and health economy trends [1] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Ximai Foods reported a net profit of 27 million yuan, up 25.16% year-on-year [1] - Revenue breakdown for H1 2025: pure oats 421 million yuan (+13.24%), compound oat flakes 556 million yuan (+27.6%), cold oat flakes 86 million yuan (+27.2%), and others 46 million yuan (-33.20%) [1] - The fastest revenue growth was seen in high-margin compound oat flakes, which now account for 48% of total revenue, indicating an optimized product structure [1] Market Position and Trends - Ximai Foods has over 20 years of experience in the oat grain market and continues to lead in this sector in China [1] - The oat grain market is expected to expand alongside the aging population and increasing health awareness among younger consumers, providing growth opportunities for the industry [1] - The company is extending its product line into the health sector, tapping into larger market segments [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's total operating revenue for H1 2025 reached 1.149 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.07%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 81 million, up 22.46% year-on-year [7] - The revenue growth accelerated in Q2 2025, driven by strong downstream demand, indicating significant growth potential for the company [7] - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% in revenue from 2025 to 2027, with profit elasticity anticipated due to cost reductions in 2025 [7] Financial Summary - Total operating revenue projections are as follows: 1,896 million in 2024, 2,255 million in 2025, 2,581 million in 2026, and 2,884 million in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.16%, 18.91%, 14.49%, and 11.72% respectively [1][8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 133 million in 2024, 180 million in 2025, 229 million in 2026, and 276 million in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 15.36%, 35.38%, 26.75%, and 20.83% [1][8] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.60 in 2024, 0.81 in 2025, 1.02 in 2026, and 1.24 in 2027 [1][8] - The company’s P/E ratios are expected to be 40.46 in 2024, 29.89 in 2025, 23.58 in 2026, and 19.52 in 2027 [1][8]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.896 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.16%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 133 million yuan, up 15.4% year-on-year [1] - The company experienced a decline in gross margin due to high raw material costs and new factory production, with a gross margin of 37.37% in Q4 2024, down 8.29 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company is focusing on optimizing product structure and diversifying channels, with significant growth in composite oats and other processed products [4] Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 463 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.04%, and a net profit of 25 million yuan, up 8.22% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 656 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.93%, and a net profit of 55 million yuan, up 21.17% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 43.65%, a slight decrease of 0.05 percentage points year-on-year [2] Cost and Expense Management - The company adjusted its expense rhythm, resulting in a decrease in expense ratio to 31.89% in Q4 2024, down 11.21 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The selling expense ratio for Q4 2024 was 24.02%, down 12.33 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 8.32%, an increase of 0.36 percentage points year-on-year [3] Product and Channel Strategy - The company is increasing its focus on composite oats and other deep-processed products, with revenue growth of nearly 30% for composite oats and over 170% for protein powder [4] - The company is expanding into new channels, with snack wholesale growth close to 50% and new retail channel GMV sales exceeding 100 million yuan, up 35% year-on-year [4] - The company anticipates improved profit elasticity due to a decrease in raw material prices and an increase in the use of new materials in Q2 [4] Future Outlook - The company projects revenues of 2.290 billion yuan, 2.741 billion yuan, and 3.309 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.78%, 19.69%, and 20.73% respectively [4] - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are 177 million yuan, 220 million yuan, and 270 million yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 33.17%, 24.23%, and 22.33% [4]

Macro Analysis - The upcoming National People's Congress (NPC) is expected to maintain an economic growth target of around 5%[11] - Key focuses include boosting consumption, fiscal and monetary policy coordination, and structural reforms to improve the business environment[11] - Five major industry themes for 2025 are identified: AI and AI+, quality consumption, new urbanization, infrastructure overseas, and food security[11] Market Impact - The NPC is anticipated to establish industry trends with policies supporting AI and AI+ as the most significant trends for 2025[16] - Enhancing consumer sentiment and happiness is a core policy concern, with current consumption performance being relatively weak[16] - The transition from old to new economic drivers will take time, with price rather than volume being a key factor influencing major asset changes in 2025[16] Investment Highlights - Jiufeng Energy (605090.SH) shows steady growth in clean energy with LNG domestic sales increasing, and the company’s gross profit per ton is improving[17] - Solid growth in the traditional Chinese medicine sector is noted for Guoshengtang (02273.HK), with a CAGR of 26.2% from 2018 to 2023[21] - Ximai Food (002956.SZ) has seen a steady increase in revenue, with a 5-year CAGR of 13.1% despite profit fluctuations[24] Risk Considerations - Risks include potential underperformance of policy support, slower-than-expected economic recovery, and competition in various sectors[7][12][30]