12 月消费金股会议：寻找最具弹性的消费方向 20251130 摘要 白酒板块：茅台批价虽因年底回款有所震荡，跌破 1,600 元，但悲观情 绪消化后，白酒板块或迎来买点。食品饮料板块作为低预期、低持仓板 块，有望在市场震荡中迎来补涨机会，CPI 回升和微观消费数据与宏观 经济存在共振。 个股推荐：新乳业纯燕麦稳定增长，复合燕麦片增长较快，渠道不断拓 宽，药食同源粉可能成为第二增长曲线，四季度营收预计加速，燕麦进 口价格下降释放利润。安琪酵母原料成本下降，收入稳健增长，国内酵 母主业环比改善，海外增长延续，糖蜜采购价格下降有望带动盈利修复。 轻工行业：关注出口机会，推荐乐舒氏（非洲卫生巾及纸尿裤市占率第 一）和匠心家居（越南产能布局、线下渠道拓展顺利）。代工出口方面， 推荐宇瞳科技（受益于 3C 电子需求释放及新品周期）和皓影股份（自 主品牌增长，ODM 客户需求恢复，收购 SGM 贡献收入）。 纺织制造：海外服装需求保持增长，美国服装零售增速快于批发增速， 但受关税影响，批发商采购谨慎，库存水平较低，预计年底或明年初启 动补库存。运动服制造订单韧性强，四季度订单景气度边际好转，有望 带动盈利修复。 Q&A ...

Core Viewpoint - Ximai Foods, as a leading domestic oat brand, benefits from the trend of health-oriented consumption, with a continuous upward shift in growth since its listing [1] - Compared to overseas markets, there is significant room for improvement in the penetration rate of oats in China, with a solid base in pure oats and rapid growth in composite oat products through innovation [1] - The company is actively expanding into new channels such as O2O, community group buying, and emerging platforms like Douyin, demonstrating superior operational efficiency compared to peers [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.696 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 132 million yuan, up 21.90% [2] - In Q3 2025, revenue reached 547 million yuan, growing 18.92% year-on-year, with a net profit of 51 million yuan, an increase of 21.00% [2] Product Growth and Innovation - The revenue from pure oats in Q3 grew by 15%, driven by the contribution of organic oats, while composite oats maintained over 20% growth [3] - The company continues to innovate by introducing health-oriented ingredients into composite oat products, benefiting from the health consumption trend [3] - New products such as high-protein oat porridge and organic high-protein oat flakes were launched in October, expected to accelerate revenue growth in 2026 [3] Cost and Profitability - In Q3 2025, the company's gross margin improved by 0.93 percentage points to 43.75%, mainly due to lower raw material costs and an upgraded product mix [4] - The selling expense ratio decreased by 1.85 percentage points to 27.11%, reflecting effective cost control during the off-season [4] - The net profit margin increased by 0.14 percentage points to 9.31%, with a significant rise in the non-recurring net profit margin by 3.25 percentage points to 8.99% [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to experience a rapid release of performance in 2026, with projected revenues of 2.33 billion, 2.78 billion, and 3.27 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 22.7%, 19.7%, and 17.4% respectively [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach 178 million, 236 million, and 300 million yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 33.4%, 32.9%, and 27.0% [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong revenue resilience in Q3, with revenue growth of 18.9% year-on-year, reaching 5.5 billion yuan, and net profit growth of 21.0%, amounting to 0.5 billion yuan. The performance exceeded expectations, leading to a maintained profit forecast for 2025-2027 [3][4] - The company is focusing on product structure upgrades and multi-channel expansion, with significant growth in online sales, particularly on platforms like Douyin, which is expected to exceed 50% growth [4][5] - Cost reductions and effective expense management have contributed to an increase in net profit margin, which rose to 9.31% in Q3, up 0.14 percentage points year-on-year [6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%, and a net profit of 0.5 billion yuan, up 21.9% year-on-year. The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is 1.7 billion yuan, 2.3 billion yuan, and 2.8 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 30.3%, 31.7%, and 23.6% respectively [3][7] - The gross margin for Q3 was 43.75%, an increase of 0.92 percentage points year-on-year, driven by cost reductions [6][11] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.78 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 26.9, 20.4, and 16.5 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][7] Business Development - The company is actively advancing its health product line, with new products expected to launch soon, which could provide a new growth curve [5] - The company has successfully launched a series of health food products, receiving positive sales feedback, indicating strong market acceptance [5]

Core Viewpoint - Guohai Securities report indicates that Ximai Foods achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 81 million yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.46% [1] - The company maintains its leading position in the Chinese oat grain market, focusing on the aging population and health economy trends [1] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Ximai Foods reported a net profit of 27 million yuan, up 25.16% year-on-year [1] - Revenue breakdown for H1 2025: pure oats 421 million yuan (+13.24%), compound oat flakes 556 million yuan (+27.6%), cold oat flakes 86 million yuan (+27.2%), and others 46 million yuan (-33.20%) [1] - The fastest revenue growth was seen in high-margin compound oat flakes, which now account for 48% of total revenue, indicating an optimized product structure [1] Market Position and Trends - Ximai Foods has over 20 years of experience in the oat grain market and continues to lead in this sector in China [1] - The oat grain market is expected to expand alongside the aging population and increasing health awareness among younger consumers, providing growth opportunities for the industry [1] - The company is extending its product line into the health sector, tapping into larger market segments [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's total operating revenue for H1 2025 reached 1.149 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.07%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 81 million, up 22.46% year-on-year [7] - The revenue growth accelerated in Q2 2025, driven by strong downstream demand, indicating significant growth potential for the company [7] - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% in revenue from 2025 to 2027, with profit elasticity anticipated due to cost reductions in 2025 [7] Financial Summary - Total operating revenue projections are as follows: 1,896 million in 2024, 2,255 million in 2025, 2,581 million in 2026, and 2,884 million in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.16%, 18.91%, 14.49%, and 11.72% respectively [1][8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 133 million in 2024, 180 million in 2025, 229 million in 2026, and 276 million in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 15.36%, 35.38%, 26.75%, and 20.83% [1][8] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.60 in 2024, 0.81 in 2025, 1.02 in 2026, and 1.24 in 2027 [1][8] - The company’s P/E ratios are expected to be 40.46 in 2024, 29.89 in 2025, 23.58 in 2026, and 19.52 in 2027 [1][8]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.896 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.16%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 133 million yuan, up 15.4% year-on-year [1] - The company experienced a decline in gross margin due to high raw material costs and new factory production, with a gross margin of 37.37% in Q4 2024, down 8.29 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company is focusing on optimizing product structure and diversifying channels, with significant growth in composite oats and other processed products [4] Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 463 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.04%, and a net profit of 25 million yuan, up 8.22% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 656 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.93%, and a net profit of 55 million yuan, up 21.17% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 43.65%, a slight decrease of 0.05 percentage points year-on-year [2] Cost and Expense Management - The company adjusted its expense rhythm, resulting in a decrease in expense ratio to 31.89% in Q4 2024, down 11.21 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The selling expense ratio for Q4 2024 was 24.02%, down 12.33 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 8.32%, an increase of 0.36 percentage points year-on-year [3] Product and Channel Strategy - The company is increasing its focus on composite oats and other deep-processed products, with revenue growth of nearly 30% for composite oats and over 170% for protein powder [4] - The company is expanding into new channels, with snack wholesale growth close to 50% and new retail channel GMV sales exceeding 100 million yuan, up 35% year-on-year [4] - The company anticipates improved profit elasticity due to a decrease in raw material prices and an increase in the use of new materials in Q2 [4] Future Outlook - The company projects revenues of 2.290 billion yuan, 2.741 billion yuan, and 3.309 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.78%, 19.69%, and 20.73% respectively [4] - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are 177 million yuan, 220 million yuan, and 270 million yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 33.17%, 24.23%, and 22.33% [4]

Macro Analysis - The upcoming National People's Congress (NPC) is expected to maintain an economic growth target of around 5%[11] - Key focuses include boosting consumption, fiscal and monetary policy coordination, and structural reforms to improve the business environment[11] - Five major industry themes for 2025 are identified: AI and AI+, quality consumption, new urbanization, infrastructure overseas, and food security[11] Market Impact - The NPC is anticipated to establish industry trends with policies supporting AI and AI+ as the most significant trends for 2025[16] - Enhancing consumer sentiment and happiness is a core policy concern, with current consumption performance being relatively weak[16] - The transition from old to new economic drivers will take time, with price rather than volume being a key factor influencing major asset changes in 2025[16] Investment Highlights - Jiufeng Energy (605090.SH) shows steady growth in clean energy with LNG domestic sales increasing, and the company’s gross profit per ton is improving[17] - Solid growth in the traditional Chinese medicine sector is noted for Guoshengtang (02273.HK), with a CAGR of 26.2% from 2018 to 2023[21] - Ximai Food (002956.SZ) has seen a steady increase in revenue, with a 5-year CAGR of 13.1% despite profit fluctuations[24] Risk Considerations - Risks include potential underperformance of policy support, slower-than-expected economic recovery, and competition in various sectors[7][12][30]