Inflation Overview - August CPI year-on-year growth increased to 2.9%, up from the previous month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%[3] - Core CPI year-on-year growth remained stable but slightly increased by 0.05 percentage points[3] Commodity Inflation - Core commodity year-on-year growth reached 1.5%, the highest since June 2023, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3 percentage points[4] - Used car prices surged, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 1%[4] - New car prices increased to a year-on-year growth of 0.7%[4] Energy Inflation - CPI energy component year-on-year growth turned positive at 0.2%, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous month[11] - Brent crude oil average price fell to $68.4 per barrel, influenced by easing geopolitical tensions[11] Service Inflation - Core service year-on-year growth remained stable at 3.6%, with a slight month-on-month decrease to 0.3%[4] - Owner's equivalent rent year-on-year growth decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4%[4] Market Expectations - Market anticipates an average of 2.9 interest rate cuts within the year, with a strong expectation for a cut in September[4] - Recent labor market adjustments indicate a potential oversupply, impacting inflation expectations[4] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected downturns in the U.S. economy and potential over-tightening by the Federal Reserve[23]

Core Insights - Inflation has shown a moderate increase, with the August CPI year-on-year growth rising to 2.9%, and the core CPI remaining stable at 3.1% [4][15] - The increase in energy and food prices has been offset by a decrease in core services and an increase in core goods [4][15] Inflation Trends - The CPI for energy has rebounded, with a year-on-year growth of 0.2% in August, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month [5] - Gasoline prices have seen a reduced decline of -6.6% year-on-year, while electricity prices have increased by 6.2% [5] Core Goods Analysis - The year-on-year growth rate for core goods has risen to 1.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [7] - Significant price increases have been observed in used cars, which saw a year-on-year growth of 6%, and new cars, which increased by 0.7% [7] Core Services Overview - The year-on-year growth rate for core services has remained stable at 3.6%, with a slight decrease in the month-on-month growth rate to 0.3% [9] - The owner’s equivalent rent has decreased to a growth rate of 4%, indicating a cooling trend in housing inflation [9] Long-term Inflation Expectations - Consumer inflation expectations for one year have risen to 4.8%, while five-year expectations have increased to 3.5% [12] Market Reactions - Following the inflation data release, U.S. stock indices rose, bond yields fell, and the dollar index decreased, leading to market expectations of an imminent interest rate cut [15]

Inflation Data - July CPI year-on-year growth remained stable at 2.7%, with a month-on-month increase slowing to 0.2%[4] - Core CPI year-on-year growth rose to 3.1%, marking a six-month high, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%[4][6] - Energy CPI recorded a year-on-year decrease of -1.6%, with gasoline prices dropping to -9.5%[11] Tariff Impact - Tariffs have a moderate impact on commodity prices, with core commodity year-on-year growth increasing to 1.2%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month[12] - Used car prices saw the largest increase, rising 2 percentage points to 4.8% year-on-year, influenced by tariffs[12] - Prices for furniture and clothing showed a slight month-on-month decrease, indicating a milder tariff impact[12] Service Sector - Core service year-on-year growth remained stable at 3.6%, with medical services rising to 4.3%, hindering overall service inflation reduction[15] - Housing inflation remained steady, with owner-equivalent rent year-on-year growth slightly declining to 4.1%[15] Market Expectations - Following the inflation data release, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September increased to 94%, with an average of 2.4 cuts expected for the year[18] - Consumer inflation expectations fell, with one-year expectations dropping to 4.5% and five-year expectations to 3.4%[15][20] Risks - Risks include potential unexpected downturns in the U.S. economy and tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve[19]

Inflation Overview - The July CPI year-on-year growth rate remained stable at 2.7%, with a slight month-on-month deceleration to 0.2% [2][10] - Core CPI year-on-year growth increased to 3.1%, while core services remained unchanged [4][10] Energy and Food Prices - Energy inflation decreased, with the CPI energy component showing a year-on-year decline of -1.6%, and gasoline prices dropping by 9.5% [6] - Food prices also saw a cooling effect, contributing to the overall inflation dynamics [10] Service Sector Dynamics - Core services year-on-year growth was stable at 3.6%, but month-on-month growth rose to 0.4%, driven by increases in medical and transportation services [7] - Housing inflation remained steady, with owner-equivalent rent slightly decreasing to 4.1% [7] Impact of Tariffs - Tariffs had a mild impact on commodity prices, with core commodity year-on-year growth rising to 1.2% [9] - The prices of used cars surged by 4.8%, influenced by tariffs, although a potential decline in used car prices is expected in the coming months [9] Market Reactions and Interest Rate Expectations - Following the inflation data release, U.S. stock indices rose, bond yields fell, and the dollar index decreased, leading to a 94% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [10] - The average expected rate cuts for the year are approximately 2.4 times [10] Consumer Inflation Expectations - The one-year inflation expectation among consumers dropped to 4.5%, while the five-year expectation fell to 3.4%, indicating a decline in inflation concerns [12]

Core Viewpoint - Inflation has rebounded as June CPI year-on-year growth slightly increased to 2.7%, with core CPI rising to 2.9% [1][2][12] Inflation Components - Energy prices have shown a significant recovery, with the energy CPI year-on-year growth recorded at -0.8%, a substantial increase of 2.7 percentage points from the previous month. Gasoline prices saw a reduced decline of 3.7 percentage points to -8.3%, while electricity prices rose by 1.3 percentage points to 5.8% [4][12] - Core goods CPI year-on-year growth increased to 0.7%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, driven by rising prices in furniture, clothing, and used cars, indicating that companies are passing tariff costs onto consumers [5][8] Service Inflation - Core service inflation remained stable, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.6%, unchanged from the previous month. Housing inflation was stable, with owner-equivalent rent growth at 4.2% and rent growth at 3.8% [9] Inflation Expectations - Consumer inflation expectations have decreased, with the one-year expectation dropping to 5%, a significant decline of 1.6 percentage points, while the five-year expectation fell to 4% [11] Monetary Policy Outlook - Following the inflation data release, U.S. stock indices rose, bond yields fell, and the dollar index declined. The probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has slightly decreased, but the market still anticipates two rate cuts within the year, with the earliest expected in September [12][17]

报 告 正 文 通胀顺利回落 。 2月CPI同比增速回落至2.8%，核心CPI同比降至3.1%，为2021年5月来最低值。从分项来 看，能源和核心服务回落，而核心商品持平，食品略有回升。一方面，俄乌局势缓和，油价回落，带动能 源项通胀下行。另一方面，核心服务通胀延续回落趋势，一是在上月汽车保险费率调整后，本月交通服务 价格同比回落，二是受益于住房通胀的持续降温。 商品通胀持平，但有回升风险 。 本月核心商品项通胀较上月持平，二手车价格同比增速较上月有所回 落。不过，家具物资和服装价格同比增速回升，环比增速也有走高，或反映了关税预期下美国企业的重新 定价行为。美国普查局的先行经济指标报告显示，1月美国贸易逆差扩大，指向美国进口商已开始提前应 对关税，关税对商品价格的冲击或在未来逐渐显现。 降息预期短暂升温 。 通胀数据公布后，美股三大指数上升，美债收益率下降，而美元指数下降。2月CPI 增速和核心CPI同比增速双双回落，意味着通胀仍然处于下行通道中。 市场对美联储全年降息预期次数先 有所升温，随后出于对关税可能引发的再通胀担忧，降息预期次数减少。我们认为，未来通胀或保持区间 震荡。一方面， 房价和市场租金价格的 ...