当前时点地产近况更新和产业链投资机会梳理 20251120 摘要 房地产市场持续承压，1-10 月全国房产累计销量和金额分别同比下降 7%和 10%，投资和施工端压力加剧，新开工面积和拿地面积较峰值时 下跌约 70%，房价下跌 35%以上，市场处于加速寻底状态。 核心城市房价快速下跌或难持续，一线城市房价调整对居民资产端冲击 显著，目前更可能是情绪化的快速出清阶段，以上海为例，2026 年初 五年限售解禁期或带来一定下跌，但总体上距离周期底部已经不远。 政策层面，核心城市房价走弱或促使未来政策力度加大，全国层面新增 个人住房贷款贴息政策或在评估中，提高个人住房贷款利息所得税专项 扣除、进一步下调住房交易契税等政策也在酝酿中。 建材行业需关注顶层持续关注并琢磨支持政策，优秀上市公司将先于行 业见底，随着地产救市措施逐步落实，有望带动整体市场回暖，三棵树 等企业虽优于行业平均水平，但整体市场环境仍充满挑战。 大类资产配置应关注低位有边际变化或赔率较高的板块，如地产链，同 时需谨慎考虑结构性流动性担忧问题，海螺水泥因国内地产及供需关系 处于低位，有较好的配置价值，重视反内卷政策可能带来的供给侧改革 机会。 Q&A ...

Core Viewpoint - The third-quarter reports of listed companies reflect the resilience and vitality of China's consumer market, indicating a structural adjustment period in the consumption sector with both challenges and opportunities [1] Overall Recovery - The consumer sector shows a steady recovery overall, but there is uneven performance across different segments. Essential consumption remains stable, while discretionary consumption is experiencing a divide [2] - Essential consumption sectors like food and beverages are performing well due to their necessity, with leading companies showing stable revenue and profit growth [2] - The liquor industry, representing traditional high-end consumption, is under pressure, with major companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao reporting significant declines in revenue and profit [2] - In contrast, the new energy vehicle industry is thriving, benefiting from policy support and product upgrades, becoming a key growth driver in the consumer sector [2] Channel Transformation - Traditional retail companies are accelerating their online transformation, integrating online and offline channels to capture market changes, with those embracing digitalization seeing growth [3] Cost Pressures - Global commodity prices remain high, putting pressure on raw material and logistics costs, which challenges the gross margins of mid-to-low-end consumer companies [4] - Companies that optimize product structures and improve supply chain efficiency are demonstrating stronger profitability and market competitiveness [4] Structural Highlights - A number of structural highlights are emerging, driving high-quality development in consumer-related listed companies through innovation in technology, business models, and consumer scenarios [5] - In the smart home sector, companies like Ecovacs and Haier are experiencing significant profit growth, with Ecovacs reporting a 131% increase in net profit [5] - The traditional consumption sector is exploring new business models, with companies like Kweichow Moutai and Mercury Home Textiles achieving double-digit growth through innovative product offerings [6] New Consumption Scenarios - Companies are actively transforming to capture new consumption trends, with firms like Golden Dragon Fish and Miaokelando reporting substantial profit increases due to cost improvements and channel optimization [8] - The consumer market is becoming increasingly segmented, with new brands focusing on specific demographics and scenarios, such as new-style tea drinks and pet economy products [8] - Domestic brands are gaining market share and showing strong performance in sectors like sportswear and beauty products, driven by cultural confidence and supply chain advantages [8] Market Dynamics - The consumer market is undergoing structural upgrades, with recovery being uneven due to factors like income expectations and regional disparities [9] - Companies with strong brand barriers and unique market advantages are favored by capital, while those embracing new trends and product iterations can still find growth opportunities [9] - The competition is shifting from traditional versus new consumption to the operational efficiency and strategic vision of different companies within the same industry [9] High-Quality Development - The recovery trend in China's consumer market is moving from total growth to structural optimization, with companies encouraged to focus on high-quality development through innovation [10]

上市公司三季报如同一面镜子，映照出中国消费市场的韧性与活力。当前，上市公司消费赛道正处于结 构性调整期，挑战与机遇并存。 可选消费则呈现"冰火两重天"的格局。作为传统高端消费代表的白酒行业，三季度持续承压，消费场景 收缩导致市场进入缩量竞争模式。在已发布三季报的上市白酒企业中，仅有少数几家企业实现微增长。 五粮液三季报显示，公司今年第三季度营收为81.74亿元，同比下降52.66%；归母净利润为20.19亿元， 同比下降65.62%。泸州老窖今年第三季度实现营收66.74亿元，同比下降9.8%；归母净利润30.99亿元， 同比下降13.07%。 与之形成对比的是新能源汽车产业链，在政策红利与产品力升级的双重加持下，成为消费板块中最亮眼 的增长引擎，销量与业绩双双走高。 而家电、家居等可选消费领域，因与房地产市场深度绑定，整体承压明显，但绿色、智能、集成化的新 兴品类逆势增长，持续释放消费升级的强劲动力。 渠道变革深化，线上线下加速融合。传统零售企业不再固守线下的"一亩三分地"，线上转型步伐明显提 速，线上引流+线下体验的全渠道布局已成为行业标配。那些主动拥抱变化、数字化能力突出的企业， 成功捕捉到渠道变革的红 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests investment opportunities in the glass fiber and cement industries, with a focus on selecting stocks in the consumer building materials and early-cycle sectors [3][4]. Core Insights - The construction materials industry saw a narrowing revenue decline of 3.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue reaching 4,322.5 billion yuan. Net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 27.8% to 244.4 billion yuan, marking a shift from profit decline to growth [2][9]. - The cement industry demonstrated significant profit elasticity, with sample companies achieving a total revenue of 1,812.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 8.4%, but a net profit increase of 148.8% to 91.3 billion yuan [20][27]. - The glass fiber sector reported robust growth, with total revenue of 492.1 billion yuan, up 23.5% year-on-year, and net profit soaring by 121.4% to 48.7 billion yuan [4][35]. - The consumer building materials segment faced pressure, with a revenue decline of 0.9% to 1,107.5 billion yuan and a net profit decrease of 6.9% to 82.1 billion yuan, although some companies showed strong performance [4][5]. - The early-cycle sector remains under pressure, but leading companies like Subote have achieved revenue and profit growth through strategic project expansions [5][9]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry - The cement industry is experiencing a gradual recovery, with a total revenue of 1,812.3 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, down 8.4% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 148.8% to 91.3 billion yuan. Major players like Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement continue to dominate profit contributions [20][27]. - The overall profit margin for the cement sector improved, with a gross margin of 22.4%, up 2.76 percentage points from the previous year [27][29]. Glass Fiber Industry - The glass fiber sector has shown strong performance, with total revenue of 492.1 billion yuan, a 23.5% increase year-on-year, and net profit rising by 121.4% to 48.7 billion yuan. The recovery in pricing and the growth of specialty fabrics are key drivers of this improvement [4][35]. Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials segment reported a revenue of 1,107.5 billion yuan, down 0.9% year-on-year, with net profit decreasing by 6.9% to 82.1 billion yuan. Companies like Keda Manufacturing and Sankeshu are leveraging unique channel advantages to drive growth [4][5]. Early-Cycle Sector - The early-cycle sector remains challenged, but companies like Subote have successfully increased both revenue and profit by focusing on major engineering projects in the western regions [5][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the building materials industry for 2025, highlighting the potential for profit recovery and growth in specific sectors such as cement and fiberglass [1]. Core Insights - Revenue decline for the first three quarters of 2025 narrowed to 3.1% year-on-year, with total revenue reaching CNY 432.25 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 27.8% to CNY 24.44 billion, indicating a shift from profit decline to growth [2][13]. - The cement industry showed significant profit elasticity, with a total revenue of CNY 181.23 billion for the first three quarters, down 8.4% year-on-year, but net profit surged by 148.8% to CNY 9.13 billion [26][27]. - The fiberglass sector experienced robust growth, with total revenue of CNY 49.21 billion, up 23.5%, and net profit soaring by 121.4% to CNY 4.87 billion [4][14]. - The consumer building materials segment faced pressure, with revenue declining by 0.9% to CNY 110.75 billion and net profit down 6.9% to CNY 8.21 billion, although some companies like Keda Manufacturing and Sanke Tree showed strong performance [4][5]. - The glass industry remains under pressure, with revenue dropping 11.0% to CNY 38.09 billion and net profit declining 63.2% to CNY 0.94 billion, necessitating attention to supply adjustments and pricing strategies [4][5]. - Early-cycle sectors are still under pressure, but leading companies like Subote have reported revenue and profit growth, driven by significant project developments in key infrastructure areas [5][6]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry - The cement sector's revenue for the first three quarters was CNY 181.23 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 8.4%, while net profit increased by 148.8% to CNY 9.13 billion, indicating a recovery trend [26][27]. - Major players like Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement continue to dominate, contributing significantly to industry profits [3][26]. Fiberglass Industry - The fiberglass industry reported a total revenue of CNY 49.21 billion, reflecting a 23.5% increase, and net profit rose by 121.4% to CNY 4.87 billion, showcasing strong recovery and growth potential [4][14]. - Companies such as China Jushi and Zhongcai Technology are expected to benefit from the ongoing price recovery and expansion into specialty fabrics [4][5]. Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials segment saw a slight revenue decline of 0.9% to CNY 110.75 billion, with net profit decreasing by 6.9% to CNY 8.21 billion, although some firms like Keda Manufacturing reported significant growth due to strategic overseas expansions [4][5]. Glass Industry - The glass sector faced challenges, with revenue down 11.0% to CNY 38.09 billion and net profit down 63.2% to CNY 0.94 billion, highlighting the need for strategic adjustments in response to market pressures [4][5]. Early-Cycle Industry - Early-cycle sectors remain under pressure, but companies like Subote have achieved revenue and profit growth through strategic project developments in infrastructure [5][6].

Summary of the Conference Call for SanKe Tree Company Overview - SanKe Tree is a leading domestic paint brand in China, primarily focused on the architectural coatings sector. The company was established in 2002 and went public in 2016. As of 2024, it has ranked first in the domestic paint industry for six consecutive years, with its headquarters located in Putian, Fujian. [3][2] Financial Performance - Despite the downturn in the real estate market, SanKe Tree achieved a profit of approximately 700 million RMB in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of over 80%. [2][3] - The company's revenue and profit growth was rapid from 2011 to 2021, but it faced challenges starting in 2022 due to the real estate market decline. [3] Industry Insights - The architectural coatings industry is expected to have a strong long-term growth potential due to short repaint cycles and product upgrades. The demand for interior wall paints is increasing due to enhanced environmental and functional properties, leading to price increases. [2][5] - The industry is currently undergoing a consolidation phase, with smaller companies exiting the market, while leading firms like Nippon Paint and SanKe Tree are alleviating price wars through price increases. [6] Market Position - Nippon Paint, as the industry leader, has a revenue scale of over 25 billion RMB, approximately double that of SanKe Tree. [7] - SanKe Tree has strategically increased its focus on architectural and home decoration coatings, which now account for nearly 90% of its product mix. [3] Retail Market Strategy - SanKe Tree is actively expanding its retail market presence through the "Ma Shang Zhu" community store model, which has led to the establishment of over 1,000 stores by 2025, significantly boosting order volume and performance contributions. [2][9] - The company is also exploring high-end products like artistic paints in first- and second-tier cities to enhance profitability and brand image. [11] Beautiful Countryside Business - SanKe Tree has established a leading position in the beautiful countryside business, with sales of imitation stone paint reaching 1.1 billion RMB in 2024, capturing about 5% market share. [10] - The imitation stone paint market has grown from over 5 billion RMB in 2014 to over 20 billion RMB in 2024, indicating strong demand in rural self-built housing. [10] Future Outlook - SanKe Tree plans to continue expanding its "Ma Shang Zhu" community stores and beautiful countryside business, which are expected to enhance overall profitability. [11] - The company is optimistic about maintaining a good growth trajectory and improving net profit levels in the future, with a positive rating on its development outlook. [11]

Company and Industry Summary Company Overview - The company reported a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, exceeding 80% year-on-year for the first three quarters, with operating cash flow reaching 1.088 billion yuan, marking a historical high, indicating strong profitability and cash flow management capabilities [2][3] Key Points Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters approached 9.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3%, and a higher growth rate of approximately 5.6% in the third quarter [3] - Gross margin improved by 4 percentage points to around 33%, with a further increase in the third quarter [4][5] - The company anticipates double-digit revenue growth for the full year, with gross margin expected to increase by at least 3 percentage points and a reduction in expense ratio by about 2 percentage points [2][8] Business Segments - Retail business emerged as the core growth driver, accounting for 48% of total revenue in the first three quarters, with a year-on-year growth of 14% [2][6] - New business models such as "Mango" and "Beautiful Countryside" accounted for 34% of retail revenue, expected to approach 40% for the full year [2][7] - The B-end business saw a revenue decline of 6% year-on-year, but non-real estate scenarios experienced growth, indicating effective business structure optimization [2][6] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to accelerate the expansion of its "Mango" stores, aiming for 10,000 locations by 2026, ahead of the original 2027 target [4][20] - Industrial coatings are positioned as a long-term growth segment, with revenue growth of 30-40% year-on-year in the first three quarters [4][27] - The company is focusing on enhancing service capabilities and digital management systems to support its expansion strategy [19][22] Market Dynamics - The retail sector is facing pressure from the macroeconomic environment, but the company is leveraging product and service attributes to capture consumer demand [14] - The company is maintaining a dynamic pricing strategy, avoiding large-scale price wars while adjusting prices based on market conditions [11][9] Future Outlook - The company expects to maintain a profit margin target of around 10% for the next year, with gross margin likely to improve by 2-3 percentage points [25] - The industrial coatings segment is projected to achieve a revenue target of around 200 million yuan for the year, with potential for rapid growth if significant breakthroughs occur [27][28] Risk Management - The company has proactively managed impairment losses, with an estimated 180 million yuan in impairments last year, and expects around 40-50 million yuan in the upcoming quarter [24] Additional Insights - The company is strategically balancing growth and profitability, particularly in the retail sector, where mid-to-high-end products are expected to continue driving revenue growth [12][15] - The competitive landscape in the "Beautiful Countryside" segment remains favorable, with the company maintaining a leading position despite slight growth deceleration [16][17]

Core Insights - The company reported its Q3 2025 results, achieving revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 9.392 billion, 744 million, and 565 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of +2.69%, +81.22%, and +126.37% [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 3.575 billion, 308 million, and 272 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of +5.62%, +53.64%, and +60.11% [1] - The company declared its first-ever Q3 dividend, distributing 5 yuan per 10 shares, corresponding to a dividend yield of approximately 1% [1] Revenue Growth and Profitability - The home decoration wall paint segment showed significant growth in Q3 2025, with revenue increasing by 18%, while engineering wall paint and waterproof membrane revenues decreased by 3% and 29% respectively [2] - The high revenue growth in home decoration wall paint contributed to an overall increase in profitability, with gross margin and net margin rising by 4.89 and 2.43 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The increase in net margin was less than that of gross margin due to higher impairment provisions and increased income tax payments [2] Strategic Innovations - The "马上住" service model has been a key strategy for increasing market share in high-tier cities, evolving into a comprehensive service ecosystem that includes products, services, and digitalization [3] - The company has upgraded its "马上住" strategy to 3.0, enhancing its service offerings across six dimensions, including product integration and high-end store development [3] Market Opportunities - The company leads the global market in the sales of imitation stone paint, capitalizing on rural market opportunities driven by national rural development initiatives [4] - The imitation stone paint market has seen a compound annual growth rate of 12.56% over the past decade, with a projected market size of 22 billion by 2024 [4] - The company has also established itself as the top seller of artistic paint in China, with a market expected to reach 12.19 billion by 2025, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 36.12% [5] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 12.496 billion, 13.852 billion, and 15.343 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +3.23%, +10.85%, and +10.76% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 948 million, 1.117 billion, and 1.353 billion for the same period, with significant year-on-year growth rates [5] - The company is positioned as a leading domestic paint brand, with a strong operational improvement and competitive advantage over peers, leading to a "strong buy" rating [5]

Summary of the Conference Call for SanKe Tree (三棵树) Company Overview - **Company**: SanKe Tree (三棵树) - **Industry**: Building materials and coatings Key Financial Performance - **Revenue Growth**: For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue reached 93.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 3% [4] - **Net Profit**: Net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.44 billion yuan, showing an increase of over 80% year-on-year [4] - **Cash Flow**: Operating cash flow reached 10.89 billion yuan, the highest for the same period since the company went public [4] - **Debt Ratio**: The debt ratio decreased to 37.5%, down about 3 percentage points from the beginning of the year, marking a new low for the same period since listing [4] Business Segment Performance Retail Business - **Retail Revenue Contribution**: Retail business accounted for 48% of total revenue, with a growth rate of 13.9% [2] - **Key Drivers**: New business models such as "Ma Shang Zhu" (马上住), "Mei Li Xiang Cun" (美丽乡村), and "Art Paint" (艺术漆) were significant growth drivers [2] - **Profit Margins**: - "Ma Shang Zhu" has a gross margin close to 50% - "Mei Li Xiang Cun" has a gross margin of 49% - "Art Paint" has a gross margin exceeding 60% [2][8] Engineering Business - **Revenue Decline**: Engineering business revenue decreased by 6%, with large B business down 39% and small B business down 6% [2][6] - **Non-Real Estate Growth**: Non-real estate small B business, such as industrial plants, grew by 6% [2] Future Outlook - **Growth Projections**: The company expects double-digit revenue growth for the full year, with gross margins projected to increase by at least 3 percentage points [2][22] - **Store Expansion**: Plans to open 1,000 stores by the end of 2027, with 3,000-4,000 new stores expected next year [7][14] - **Market Coverage**: "Mei Li Xiang Cun" aims to achieve 40%-50% growth, targeting a revenue of 1.3-1.4 billion yuan by the end of the year [7] Cost Management and Efficiency - **Expense Reduction**: The company plans to continue reducing expense ratios and optimize sales personnel configuration to maintain employee numbers below 9,000 [3][24] - **Cash Flow Improvement**: Improved cash flow attributed to the increased proportion of retail business and enhanced collection of receivables from the engineering sector [19] Accounts Receivable and Impairment - **Receivables Management**: As of September, accounts receivable decreased by approximately 1-2 billion yuan, reflecting improved business structure [11] - **Impairment Provisions**: Impairment provisions for the first three quarters totaled 1.8 billion yuan, with expectations for reduced provisions in the fourth quarter [11] Competitive Landscape - **Market Positioning**: The company has a competitive edge over rivals like Li Bang (立邦) due to its efficient store model and management capabilities [13][14] - **Product Strategy**: Focus on high-margin new business models while managing traditional low-margin products [16] Conclusion SanKe Tree demonstrates strong financial performance with a focus on retail growth and operational efficiency. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on emerging market opportunities while managing risks associated with its engineering business.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2][7] Core Views - The company has shown a revenue of 9.392 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 744 million yuan, up 81.2% year-on-year [7][8] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.084 billion yuan in 2025, with a significant growth rate of 226.69% [7][9] - The retail segment is driving growth, particularly through high-end products and services, while the engineering paint prices have stabilized [9][10] Financial Performance - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 12.476 billion yuan in 2023, 12.105 billion yuan in 2024, and an estimated 12.754 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 5.36% for 2025 [6][10] - The net profit for 2023 is projected at 174 million yuan, increasing to 1.084 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a substantial increase in profitability [6][10] - The company's EPS is expected to rise from 0.33 yuan in 2023 to 1.47 yuan in 2025, indicating strong earnings growth [6][10] Market Position and Strategy - The company has maintained high growth in the home decoration paint segment, with a revenue increase of 11.8% year-on-year for the first three quarters [9][10] - The gross margin has improved by 4.16 percentage points to 32.81%, attributed to a decrease in titanium dioxide prices and a higher proportion of high-margin products [9][10] - The company is focusing on enhancing service capabilities and expanding its retail presence, which has become the most important channel for revenue and performance growth [9][10]