Core Viewpoint - The company KAYOU, led by founder Li Qibin, is leveraging popular IPs to transform trading card games into a billion-dollar business, aiming to integrate these products into mainstream cultural consumption through strategic partnerships and innovative marketing initiatives [1][3][15]. Group 1: Business Performance and Strategy - KAYOU plans to sell 4.8 billion packs of cards in 2024, generating revenue of 10 billion yuan with a net profit of 4.466 billion yuan, maintaining a gross margin of around 70% for three consecutive years [6]. - The company has a strong reliance on a few major IPs, with over 80% of its revenue coming from non-exclusive licenses of popular brands like Ultraman and My Little Pony, which poses a risk of renewal [6][8]. - KAYOU is expanding its product offerings by collaborating with over 30 domestic IPs, aiming to elevate trading cards from mere entertainment products to new cultural consumption symbols [15][19]. Group 2: Market Expansion and Product Diversification - The company is actively diversifying its product lines, including plush toys and stationery, with a notable focus on the "Zero Series" of pens, which has seen a compound annual growth rate of over 370% from 2022 to 2024 [21]. - KAYOU has established a distribution network with 217 dealers across 31 provinces, although it has limited self-operated stores [19]. - The company is also collaborating with Tencent Games to launch physical card competitions based on popular games like "Honor of Kings" [9]. Group 3: Cultural Integration and IP Development - KAYOU is focusing on integrating national cultural elements into its products, having developed its first proprietary IP, "KAYOU Three Kingdoms," and collaborating with renowned artists for themed card sets [11][15]. - The company aims to reduce negative perceptions associated with trading card blind boxes, which have been criticized for promoting irrational spending among minors [8]. - KAYOU's partnership with the Spring Festival Gala marks a significant step in positioning trading cards within mainstream culture [1][15].

Core Insights - The sponsorship history of the CCTV Spring Festival Gala reflects China's economic development and industrial upgrades over the past four decades, showcasing three major transitions: from basic needs to consumer electronics and automobiles, from virtual economy to hard technology, and from demographic dividend to engineer dividend [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Sponsorship Trends - In the 1980s, the main sponsors represented basic household needs, with brands like 康巴丝 leading the way, highlighting the public's desire for precision and the prosperity of light industry [1]. - The 1990s saw a shift towards quality consumption, with liquor brands and home appliance giants like 美的集团 becoming prominent sponsors, marking a transition from survival to quality-focused consumption [1]. Group 2: The Rise of Internet and Technology - The year 2015 marked a turning point with the emergence of internet giants like WeChat and Alipay, initiating a "red envelope war" that transformed user engagement and payment methods [2]. - As the internet traffic peaked, the focus shifted to hard technology, with a notable increase in sponsorship from the electric vehicle sector, indicating a fundamental shift in China's competitive edge from demographic to engineer dividends [2]. Group 3: Future Trends and Cultural Consumption - The upcoming 2026 Spring Festival Gala will feature new partnerships with brands like 名创优品 and 卡游, suggesting a potential shift towards "emotional value" and "cultural consumption" as new wealth drivers in a mature market [3]. - The evolution of sponsors serves as a "value anchor" migration, reflecting China's economic transitions from production capabilities to creative intelligence, providing a lens to observe the pulse of the times [3].

春节临近，卡牌赛道的竞争也日益升温。近日，卡游正式成为中央广播电视总台《2026年春节联欢晚 会》独家卡牌合作伙伴。 其他卡牌品牌也纷纷与央视达成合作：卡卡沃宣布与春晚联名，推出"小马奔奔卡"系列产品；吾流文化 则获得了央视86版《西游记》的卡牌独家授权。 与此同时，卡牌企业也集体在港交所外"排队"。随着Suplay向港交所递交招股书，掀开了2026年卡牌第 二梯队企业冲击上市的热潮。 比起盲盒潮玩赛道，冲击上市的卡牌企业背后站满了豪华资本阵容。闪魂由高瓴创投领投，高榕创投、 凯辉基金跟投。Hitcard背后站着红杉中国种子基金、泡泡玛特和千岛潮玩族等系列机构。而Suplay则因 为最大外部股东是米哈游，引起行业关注。 从营收规模来看，这些成立不久的卡牌企业与卡游还相距甚远。综合企业对外披露的数据以及招股书数 据来看，Hitcard2024年营收为4亿元，Suplay2024年营收为2.81亿元，到2025年前9个月，Suplay营收达 到2.83 亿元，超过2024年全年。相比之下，2024年卡游营收规模为100.57亿元，是卡游新贵们的四五十 倍。 但又因为如今卡牌企业依旧集体依赖授权IP，以及卡牌可拓展 ...

Group 1 - Suplay, a card company focusing on cultural products, has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to become the "first card stock" in the market [1] - Established in 2019, Suplay has become the leader in China's collectible non-combat card market, with projected GMV for 2024 expected to be the highest in its segment [1] - Financial data shows that Suplay's revenue reached 146 million yuan in 2023, with a forecasted doubling to 281 million yuan in 2024, and revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 has already surpassed 283 million yuan [1] Group 2 - Suplay targets adult consumers, with over 99% of its customers being 18 years or older, allowing it to avoid direct competition with traditional card game giants [2] - Despite impressive performance, Suplay faces challenges due to its heavy reliance on IP, with self-owned IP revenue dropping from 40.6% in 2023 to 4.1% in the first three quarters of 2025 [2] - The company is currently negotiating the renewal of its agreement with its largest revenue-generating licensed IP partner, which poses a risk to its main income source [2] Group 3 - The rise of Suplay reflects the potential of the "Guzi economy," with the Chinese pan-entertainment product market expected to grow from 91.9 billion yuan in 2019 to 174.1 billion yuan in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate of 13.6% [3] - The "Guzi economy" market is projected to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2029, providing significant growth opportunities for the collectible card industry [3]

Core Viewpoint - Suplay aims to become the "first card stock" on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, leveraging its unique market positioning and strong IP partnerships to drive significant revenue growth and profitability [3][4]. Financial Performance - Suplay's revenue is projected to grow from 150 million yuan in 2023 to 281 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 92.5% [3][17]. - Net profit is expected to rise from 16 million yuan in 2023 to 64.8 million yuan in 2024, with an increase of over 300% [3][20]. - The gross margin for Suplay's collectible card business is close to 70% [4][20]. IP Dependency and Revenue Sources - 95% of Suplay's revenue comes from licensed IP products, with the top five IPs contributing 77.7% of total revenue [4][15]. - The company has established partnerships with 22 IP licensors, including exclusive collaborations with prominent brands like Disney and MiHoYo [15][18]. Market Positioning and Strategy - Suplay targets the adult collectible card market, with over 99% of its consumers aged 18 and above, positioning its products as "luxury items" [18][22]. - The company has developed a complete ecosystem for collectible cards, including design, production, and sales channels, enhancing its competitive edge [10][13]. Competitive Landscape - Suplay's main competitor, Hitcard, focuses on a mass-market approach with lower-priced cards aimed at children, while Suplay emphasizes high-end, limited-edition collectibles for adult collectors [22][24]. - Hitcard's revenue exceeded 10 billion yuan in 2024, significantly larger than Suplay's projected revenue of 281 million yuan [24].

Core Viewpoint - The capitalized process of the card game industry is accelerating, with companies like Suplay leading the charge towards public listings, despite challenges faced by top enterprises in the sector [1][4]. Group 1: Suplay's Market Position - Suplay submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on January 1, 2026, ranking first in China's collectible non-combat card market and being the only Chinese brand among the top five globally [2]. - Suplay initially focused on trendy toys before transitioning to card production, securing significant investments and partnerships with major IPs like miHoYo and G-bits [7][9]. - The company emphasizes a strong collection logic, with single card prices exceeding 10 yuan and packs priced between 59.9 yuan and 89.9 yuan, targeting adult consumers, particularly women [9]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Growth - Suplay's revenue is projected to reach 1.4 billion yuan in 2023, 2.8 billion yuan in 2024, and 2.83 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, with a gross margin of 54.5% driven primarily by card sales [11]. - The company has established a brand barrier by focusing on collectible cards, avoiding direct competition with card games, and maintaining a unique market position [11]. Group 3: Challenges and Strategic Focus - Suplay faces challenges in scaling its operations while maintaining the value of its collectibles, as its revenue is significantly lower than that of card games, which are projected to grow by 270% in 2024 [13]. - The company relies heavily on external IP licensing, with the top five IPs contributing 47.8% to 77.7% of its revenue over the years, raising concerns about sustainability if key licenses expire [14]. - Suplay plans to use IPO proceeds to expand its core business and strengthen its collectible card capabilities while reducing reliance on its own IPs [14]. Group 4: Industry Trends and Competitor Landscape - Other companies in the card industry, such as Hitcard and Jason Entertainment, are also pursuing IPOs and have secured significant funding, indicating a competitive landscape [16][18]. - The industry is witnessing a diversification in business models, with some companies focusing on expanding their ecosystems and others enhancing their brand value through high-end product lines [19][20]. - Global experiences suggest that pure card companies face challenges in the public market, emphasizing the need for broader narratives that incorporate IP and entertainment development [22][23].

Core Viewpoint - Suplay, a card company, has submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for an IPO, positioning itself as a company focused on IP collectibles and consumer products, with a significant emphasis on high-end collectible cards and related services [1][3]. Financial Performance - Suplay has demonstrated rapid growth over the past three years, with revenue exceeding 280 million RMB in the first nine months of 2025 and an adjusted net profit of approximately 86.42 million RMB [3][12]. - The company reported a net profit of 64.82 million RMB in 2024, which is more than three times the previous year's profit, indicating strong momentum [12][14]. Market Positioning - Suplay's flagship brand, Kaka Wo, focuses on high-end collectible cards, particularly targeting adult consumers with a strong emotional connection to classic Western IPs [8][11]. - The company claims that over 99% of its consumers are aged 18 and above, and its products are designed to be more accessible than their American counterparts [11][12]. Competitive Landscape - The card industry has not seen a pure card company successfully complete an IPO, with most listed companies being upstream suppliers or IP giants [5][39]. - Suplay aims to differentiate itself from competitors by focusing on high-end collectible cards, while other companies like Card Game have faced challenges in their IPO attempts [5][12]. Revenue Composition - As of 2025, approximately 70% of Suplay's total revenue comes from collectible cards and related services, making it the core revenue driver for the company [12][14]. - The company's gross margin for collectibles has increased from about 58% to approximately 70%, reflecting its focus on high-margin products [14]. Industry Challenges - The card industry faces significant challenges, including reliance on IP licensing, which is becoming increasingly competitive and costly [39][41]. - Suplay's revenue from proprietary IP has dropped significantly, while revenue from licensed IP has increased, indicating a shift in its business model [43][45]. Consumer Sentiment and Market Dynamics - There are concerns regarding the secondary market for Kaka Wo cards, with reports of significant price drops and consumer dissatisfaction with product quality [15][20][25]. - The company acknowledges the challenges of controlling its distribution channels and the potential impact of secondary market pricing on its brand perception [19][39]. Regulatory Environment - The card industry is under scrutiny due to its business model, which often involves blind box sales targeted at younger consumers, leading to regulatory pressures [50][51]. - Suplay has reported that over 99% of its customers are adults, attempting to mitigate concerns about regulatory changes affecting its business model [51].

Core Viewpoint - The card game industry is witnessing a competitive landscape with Suplay making a push for an IPO in Hong Kong, while another company, Kayo, faces setbacks with its own IPO, raising questions about who will emerge as the "first card stock" [1][8]. Group 1: Suplay's Business Model and Growth - Suplay, established in late 2019, has rapidly evolved from an online mini-program to a comprehensive trend IP consumer goods company, focusing on high-margin card products [2]. - The revenue from Suplay's collectibles (mainly trading cards) is projected to grow from 47.946 million yuan in 2023 to 117 million yuan in 2024, and further to 198 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with gross margins increasing from 57.9% to 69.5% during the same period [2][9]. - Suplay's self-owned IP products contributed approximately 40.6%, 14.4%, and 4.1% to total revenue in 2023, 2024, and the first nine months of 2025, respectively, while revenue from licensed IP has surged to 95% in the same period [6]. Group 2: Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Suplay is positioned as a leader in the non-combat collectible card segment in China, according to data from Frost & Sullivan, despite its smaller scale compared to Kayo [2]. - Kayo, established in 2011, primarily focuses on trading card games (TCG) but faces challenges in a market that is still maturing, while Suplay targets the high-end collectible card market [8]. - The competition between Suplay and Kayo for the title of "first card stock" is intensified by Kayo's recent IPO setbacks, highlighting the uncertainty in the market [8]. Group 3: Financial Backing and Investor Relations - Suplay has received significant investment, including an $8 million injection from miHoYo, which also holds an 11.86% stake as the largest external shareholder [5]. - The company has a strong consumer loyalty, with a repurchase rate exceeding 75% for collectibles through its WeChat mini-program channels [10]. - Despite its growth, Suplay's reliance on licensed IP poses risks, as the expiration of key licensing agreements could impact revenue stability [6][11].

Core Viewpoint - Suplay Inc. has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, focusing on high-end collectible non-battle cards, but faces risks related to its reliance on licensed IPs and competition in the card industry [1][6]. Company Overview - Founded in 2019 by Huang Wanjun, Suplay initially sold trendy toys through a WeChat mini-program and later acquired a toy design and manufacturing company [3]. - Suplay's main business involves developing and selling collectible cards and trendy toys based on licensed and proprietary IPs, ranking first in China's collectible non-battle card market by GMV in 2024 [3][4]. Financial Performance - Suplay's revenue from collectible and consumer products is shifting, with collectible products' revenue share increasing from 32.9% in 2023 to 70% in the first three quarters of 2025 [5]. - Revenue figures for Suplay are projected at 146 million RMB in 2023, 281 million RMB in 2024, and 283 million RMB in the first three quarters of 2025, with corresponding net profits of 2.949 million RMB, 49.115 million RMB, and 37.074 million RMB [4]. Market Dynamics - The collectible card market in China is rapidly expanding, with projections indicating it will exceed 300 billion RMB by 2025 and approach 500 billion RMB by 2027 [9]. - The competition in the card industry is intensifying, with multiple companies pursuing IPOs, including Suplay, which aims to become the first publicly listed card company [9][10]. IP Dependency Risks - Suplay's revenue is increasingly reliant on licensed IPs, with the share of revenue from licensed IPs rising from 54.2% in 2023 to 95% in the first three quarters of 2025 [6]. - The company faces risks associated with the expiration of key IP licenses, which could impact its product offerings and revenue stability [6][8]. Strategic Initiatives - To mitigate IP dependency, Suplay plans to diversify its IP portfolio, expand its sales network, and support global expansion through its IPO proceeds [8]. - The company aims to enhance its proprietary IP development and secure exclusive agreements with major IP holders to strengthen its market position [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - Suplay, a card company, has submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, showcasing significant revenue and profit growth over the past three years, but faces critical challenges due to a sharp decline in self-owned IP revenue and increasing reliance on external licensed IPs [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - Suplay's revenue has shown remarkable growth, with 2023 revenue at 146 million yuan, a 92.5% increase to 281 million yuan in 2024, and 283 million yuan in the first nine months of 2025, surpassing the entire 2024 revenue [2]. - The company's gross margin has improved from 41.7% in 2023 to 54.5% in the first nine months of 2025, an increase of 12.8 percentage points [2]. - Net profit surged from 2.949 million yuan in 2023 to 49.115 million yuan in 2024, a staggering increase of 1593.1%, with a net profit of 37.074 million yuan in the first nine months of 2025, up 4.3% year-on-year [3]. IP Dependency - The contribution of self-owned IP revenue has drastically decreased from 40.6% in 2023 to just 4.1% in the first nine months of 2025, indicating a heavy reliance on external licensed IPs, which increased from 47.8% to 77.7% [3]. - This shift raises concerns about the sustainability of Suplay's business model, as it relies on potentially volatile licensing agreements rather than strong original content [3]. Market Position - Suplay's revenue is only 2.8% of the industry leader, Card Game, which reported 10.06 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, highlighting a significant gap in market share [4][8]. - The two companies target different customer segments, with Suplay focusing on high-end collectible cards for cultural enthusiasts and high-net-worth collectors, while Card Game targets a broader audience with lower-priced, entertainment-focused cards [6][8]. Business Model and Ethical Concerns - Suplay's business model, which includes a "blind box" sales mechanism, has raised ethical concerns regarding consumer behavior and potential overconsumption [10][11]. - The company has a highly concentrated ownership structure, with the founder holding 72.86% of shares, which may pose risks related to governance and decision-making [10]. - Regulatory scrutiny is increasing, particularly regarding the sale of blind boxes, which could impact Suplay's operational model and growth prospects [11].