Core Insights - The focus of the "Double 11" shopping festival has unexpectedly shifted to collectible cards, particularly the TOPPS X THE MONSTERS/LABUBU series, which sold out quickly despite high purchase limits and pre-sale conditions [1][2] - The collectible card market in China is experiencing significant growth, with major players like Pokémon and various entertainment giants entering the space, leading to a competitive landscape [1][6] - Bubble Mart, a leading player in the trendy toy industry, reported a projected revenue growth of 245%-250% year-on-year for Q3 2025, indicating strong performance in the collectible market [1][4] Market Dynamics - The overlap between trendy toy users and card users is significant, with many card players also engaging with Bubble Mart products, although marketing strategies differ [2][5] - The traditional IP-licensed cards are facing challenges as the market becomes saturated, leading to increased competition primarily based on price and volume [2][5] - The LABUBU card's appeal lies in its unique scarcity and artistic value, featuring limited edition items that enhance its collectible nature [3][5] Competitive Landscape - The global collectible trading card market is projected to grow from $7.267 billion in 2025 to $15.433 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.36% [3][4] - China has emerged as one of the largest trading card markets, with significant growth potential as consumer spending is still relatively low compared to markets like Japan and the U.S. [4][6] - Major companies in the first tier of the market include Pokémon, Konami, and Topps, with a clear competitive hierarchy forming [4][6] Industry Trends - The Chinese card market is witnessing an influx of new players, with over 2,000 card-related companies currently operating, primarily concentrated in Guangdong, Liaoning, and Hainan [6][7] - The market is evolving towards a more mature and diversified structure, with a broader age demographic engaging with various IPs [7][8] - The future of the card market may hinge on the development of trading card games (TCG) that offer gameplay and competitive events, moving away from purely collectible cards [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities of Ultraman's copyright situation in China, highlighting the ongoing disputes between two companies, Xinchuanhua and Qiaotianzun, both claiming rights to the Ultraman IP, which affects consumer perception and the commercial future of this iconic franchise [1][5][8]. Group 1: Ultraman's Market Presence - Ultraman has evolved from a children's franchise to a beloved IP among adults, generating a total revenue of $7.4 billion in 2024, ranking it as the 53rd most profitable IP globally [5]. - The Ultraman IP has significantly benefited Xinchuanhua's partners, with KAYOU achieving revenues of 10.057 billion yuan in 2024, where Ultraman card series contributed 8.2 billion yuan, accounting for 81.5% of its total revenue [5]. - In 2023 and the first half of 2024, Bruco's revenue was heavily reliant on Ultraman products, making up 63.5% and 57.4% of its total revenue, respectively [5]. Group 2: Copyright Disputes - The copyright landscape for Ultraman in China is complicated, with Xinchuanhua recognized as the official copyright agent by Tsuburaya Productions, while Qiaotianzun claims rights based on a historical copyright transfer from the 1970s [8]. - The ongoing copyright disputes have led to confusion among consumers regarding which exhibitions and products are officially licensed, impacting the overall consumer experience [9][10]. Group 3: Quality and Consumer Experience - The fragmented copyright situation has resulted in varying quality of Ultraman-related products and experiences, leading to consumer dissatisfaction and questions about authenticity [9][10]. - Xinchuanhua has not authorized Ultraman performances in cinemas, which has raised concerns about the quality of non-officially licensed events, potentially harming the brand's reputation [9][10]. Group 4: Successful IP Management - Xinchuanhua employs a comprehensive operational strategy focusing on "content co-creation, community marketing, and breaking through scenarios," which has helped maintain Ultraman's enduring appeal [11]. - The "Chasing Light Journey: Looking Forward to the 60th Anniversary of Ultraman" exhibition exemplifies high-quality curation and adherence to the original spirit of the IP, showcasing rare props and immersive experiences [12][14]. - The long-term operational focus of Xinchuanhua contrasts with short-term profit-seeking strategies, emphasizing the importance of continuous content evolution and quality management for sustaining IP value [20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities of Ultraman's copyright situation in China, highlighting the ongoing disputes between two companies, Xinchuanhua and Qiaotianzun, both claiming rights to the Ultraman IP, which affects consumer perception and the commercial future of this iconic franchise [1][9][10]. Group 1: Ultraman's Market Presence - Ultraman has evolved over 60 years, expanding from children's entertainment to a beloved IP among adults, generating a total revenue of $7.4 billion in 2024, ranking it as the 53rd most profitable IP globally [7]. - The Ultraman IP has significantly benefited Xinchuanhua's partners, with Kayo achieving revenues of 10.057 billion yuan in 2024, where Ultraman card series contributed 8.2 billion yuan, accounting for 81.5% of its total revenue [7]. - In 2023 and the first half of 2024, Buluko's revenue was heavily reliant on Ultraman products, making up 63.5% and 57.4% of its total revenue, respectively [7]. Group 2: Copyright Disputes - The copyright landscape for Ultraman in China is complicated, with both Xinchuanhua and Qiaotianzun claiming rights, but Xinchuanhua is recognized as the official copyright agent by Tsuburaya Productions [9][10]. - The historical context of the copyright dispute dates back to 1976 when Tsuburaya transferred overseas rights to a Thai individual, leading to a long-standing legal controversy over the rights held by Qiaotianzun [10]. Group 3: Consumer Experience and Market Confusion - The confusion among consumers regarding which Ultraman exhibition is officially sanctioned reflects the broader issues of copyright fragmentation, leading to varying quality in products and services [12]. - There have been over 700 Ultraman performances across 121 cities in China in the first seven months of 2025, with many claiming authorization, yet audience feedback has raised concerns about the authenticity and quality of these performances [12][13]. Group 4: Quality and Brand Management - Xinchuanhua's operational strategy focuses on "content co-creation, community marketing, and breaking through scenarios," enhancing the Ultraman IP's longevity and value [15]. - The "Chasing Light Journey: Looking Forward to the 60th Anniversary of Ultraman" exhibition showcases high-quality curation, adhering to Tsuburaya's original settings and spirit, which has been well-received by fans [16][18]. - The exhibition features unique props and immersive experiences, reinforcing the emotional connection between the IP and its audience, as evidenced by testimonials from attendees [21]. Group 5: Sustainable IP Management - The sustainability of IP like Ultraman relies on continuous updates and iterations of its core products, ensuring that the brand remains relevant and engaging [24]. - Long-term operational strategies, as opposed to short-term profit-seeking approaches, are essential for maintaining the IP's value and consumer trust [24].

Core Insights - The article discusses the high prices and poor quality of children's performances based on the Ultraman IP, highlighting consumer dissatisfaction and potential legal implications for misleading advertising [2][4][8]. Group 1: Performance Quality and Consumer Experience - Parents are willing to pay high prices for children's performances, but many report disappointing experiences, including false advertising regarding promised perks [2][4]. - The quality of the performances is criticized, with reports of inadequate production values, such as poor lighting and sound, leading to children being frightened during the show [6][8]. - Legal experts suggest that consumers may have grounds for claims under consumer protection laws due to misleading advertising and unmet expectations [8][12]. Group 2: Licensing and Authorization Issues - The Ultraman IP has multiple licensing entities, leading to significant discrepancies in performance quality and pricing, with some performances being authorized at much lower costs [10][11][14]. - The core copyright holder, New Chuanghua, has not authorized cinema performances, raising questions about the legitimacy of some shows claiming to be officially licensed [11][13]. - Historical licensing issues stemming from a 1976 contract have resulted in a fragmented and confusing authorization landscape for the Ultraman brand in China [14][16]. Group 3: Market Potential and Economic Impact - The Ultraman IP is recognized as a highly valuable asset, with significant potential for revenue generation through various channels, including merchandise and performances [17][20]. - Companies leveraging the Ultraman IP have seen substantial financial success, with examples of significant revenue contributions from related products [17][18]. - The article emphasizes the importance of proper IP management and the potential long-term financial losses due to historical licensing mistakes [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the issues surrounding the performance of the "Ultraman" children's theater, particularly regarding high ticket prices, misleading advertising, and poor quality of the shows, leading to consumer dissatisfaction and potential legal implications for the companies involved [1][4][9]. Group 1: Performance Quality and Consumer Experience - The ticket price for the "Ultraman" show is six times that of a movie ticket, yet the promised benefits, such as a "VIP gift package," were not delivered, leading to disappointment among parents and children [2][3]. - Many parents reported that the performance quality was subpar, with inadequate stage production, poor lighting, and costumes that did not conceal performers' identities, resulting in a negative experience for children [3][4]. - Legal experts indicated that consumers could claim refunds based on misleading advertising and poor performance quality, as the high ticket prices were justified by promised additional benefits that were not fulfilled [4][9]. Group 2: Licensing and Authorization Issues - The article discusses the confusion surrounding the licensing of "Ultraman" performances, noting that multiple companies hold different rights to the IP, leading to significant discrepancies in performance quality and pricing [12][13]. - The core copyright holder, New Chuanghua, has not authorized cinema performances, while another company, Qiao Tian Zun, claims to have obtained rights through a historical contract, resulting in a chaotic licensing environment [11][12]. - The licensing fees for "Ultraman" performances can be as low as 3,000 yuan per show, raising questions about the authenticity and quality of the performances being offered in cinemas [8][12]. Group 3: Market Impact and Future Considerations - The article emphasizes the potential financial losses incurred by the original copyright holder, Round Valley, due to historical licensing decisions, estimating losses could reach hundreds of billions over the years [13][20]. - The "Ultraman" IP has significant commercial potential, with opportunities for revenue generation through merchandise, games, and theme parks, but the current licensing confusion undermines its value [13][20]. - Industry experts suggest that the future of IP management should focus on maintaining copyright integrity and developing robust licensing frameworks to avoid similar issues in the future [20].

Core Insights - The article discusses the surprising rise of Lao Pu Gold, which saw its stock price increase by 12 times since its IPO, despite being overlooked in the primary market [1][4] - The company transitioned from seeking an A-share listing to pursuing a Hong Kong IPO, attracting significant investment from Black Ant and Yu Garden [1][3] - A key turning point was the release of a mid-year report showing a nearly 200% year-on-year profit increase, which led to a surge in investor interest [3][4] Investment Dynamics - Initial interest in Lao Pu Gold was low, with only a few investors participating in the Pre-IPO round, highlighting a lack of understanding of the company's potential [1][2] - The IPO saw overwhelming demand, with retail subscriptions oversubscribed by over 580 times and institutional subscriptions nearly 12 times, indicating a shift in market sentiment [4][15] - The company's market capitalization reached HKD 11.3 billion on its listing day, doubling its valuation from the Pre-IPO round in just six months [4][18] Market Trends - The article notes a broader trend in the Hong Kong market, where consumer stocks have become increasingly popular, with significant inflows from foreign capital [12][16] - The sentiment shift is attributed to a combination of factors, including expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and a growing confidence in Chinese assets [12][13] - The consumer sector, particularly non-essential goods, has seen a surge in interest, with companies like Bubble Mart and Honey Snow Ice City also experiencing significant market success [17][18] Investment Reflections - Many investors expressed regret over missing opportunities in companies like Lao Pu Gold, indicating a broader issue of understanding emerging consumer brands [5][6][9] - The article highlights a pattern where successful consumer companies were often overlooked in the primary market, leading to missed investment opportunities [9][19] - The narrative emphasizes the importance of recognizing and adapting to changing market dynamics, particularly in the consumer sector [30][32]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The collectible card game market is led by Magic: The Gathering and Pokémon, each generating over $1 billion annually, with China's market starting later, marked by the success of Ultraman cards [1][2] - The success of the card industry is significantly influenced by the entry of major players like Wizards of the Coast, local anime companies, and Blizzard, indicating its establishment as a mainstream entertainment form [1][4] - Cultural differences shape card game preferences: the US focuses on sports star cards, Japan emphasizes anime IP, while China promotes through well-known IPs like Ultraman [1][5] Market Characteristics - The Japanese collectible card market, characterized by blind box models and anime IP, reached over 10 billion RMB in 2023, accounting for about 27% of Japan's toy market [1][7] - China's card market has low per capita spending compared to Japan and the US, with significant growth potential as the secondary trading market is still in its early stages and heavily regulated [1][8] Financial and Investment Aspects - The card culture has evolved into a mature industry chain with financial and investment attributes, particularly in the US, where it can be mapped to stablecoins, Bitcoin, and NFTs [1][6] - The secondary trading market can significantly amplify industry scale, with estimates suggesting it could expand the US market size by seven to nine times [1][10][12] Development Pathways - The development of the card game industry can be segmented into phases, with the US launching Magic: The Gathering in 1993, Japan introducing Pokémon in 1996, and China starting with Three Kingdoms Kill in 2009, followed by Ultraman's success in 2018 [2][3] - The entry of heavyweight players is crucial for an industry's success, as seen with Pokémon attracting numerous followers and competitors after its initial success [4] Cultural and Globalization Insights - The globalization of culture in the UK, US, and Japan has been successful due to their unique cultural identities, which have been validated by global consumer preferences [13] - China is beginning to develop its unique value proposition in global culture, with potential breakthroughs in IP and derivative products, but still faces challenges in copyright protection [14][15] Recent Market Dynamics - Recent market adjustments include developments in stablecoins and new IPs, with a focus on structural changes and advancements in AI technology, particularly with the upcoming release of GPT-5 by OpenAI [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" for the collectible card industry [6] Core Insights - The collectible card industry is expected to maintain strong growth, driven by diverse IPs, evolving consumer habits, and the inherent social, collectible, and investment attributes of cards [5][12] - The market for collectible cards in China is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 56.6% from 2019 to 2024, with a market share of 25.8% in the overall entertainment toy industry by 2024 [12][16] - The industry is characterized by a high concentration of major players, with the top five companies holding 82.4% of the market share [4][32] Summary by Sections 1. Collectible Card Market Potential - The collectible card segment is a significant part of the rapidly growing entertainment toy industry, which is expected to reach a market size of RMB 1,018 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 15.8% from 2024 to 2029 [12][13] - The collectible card market is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 56.6% from 2019 to 2024, making it the fastest-growing sub-sector within the entertainment toy industry [16][17] 2. Types and Characteristics of Cards - The card industry is divided into collectible and non-collectible cards, with collectible cards offering themes, collection, exchange, and competitive play [3][26] - Collectible cards can be further categorized into competitive and non-competitive types, catering to both strategic gameplay and collection interests [3][26] 3. Competitive Landscape - The collectible card industry is highly concentrated, with the leading company, 卡游 (KAYOU), holding a market share of 71.1% in 2024 [4][32] - Major players include 卡游, 宝可梦公司, and others, with the top five companies dominating the market [4][32] 4. Consumer Engagement and Market Dynamics - The low entry barrier and multiple attributes of collectible cards, including social interaction, competition, and investment potential, contribute to their growing popularity [4][39] - The rise of live streaming and secondary markets is enhancing consumer engagement and driving sales in the collectible card sector [4][54] 5. Future Growth Drivers - Factors such as increasing disposable income, expanding consumer demographics, and heightened interest from IP holders in developing entertainment products are expected to drive the market forward [20][21][24] - The overseas market presents significant opportunities for growth, particularly in Southeast Asia, where the collectible card market is projected to reach RMB 2.8 billion by 2024 [24]

Summary of Conference Call on the Toy Card Industry Industry Overview - The toy card industry has been significantly impacted by the entry of Japanese brands into the Chinese market, which has altered the sales model and led to the closure of many low-quality stores [1][3][4]. Key Points Company Performance - 卡游 (Kawoo) has successfully adapted to market changes by enhancing its product line and expanding distribution channels, resulting in a dramatic sales increase in 2024 [1][4]. - 凯钰 (Kaiyu) has a competitive edge in IP procurement, allowing for rapid selection of popular international IPs and quick product updates, leading to high revenue [1][6]. Market Dynamics - The influx of Japanese brands like 宝可梦 (Pokémon) has educated consumers in China about card games, but many small, poorly managed stores failed to meet consumer needs, leading to a market shakeout [2][3]. - The overall market evolution has improved consumer awareness and acceptance of card games, benefiting companies like 卡游 [4]. Distribution Strategies - 卡游 focuses on high-quality first-level distributors, while 布鲁可 (Blucor) employs a traditional toy industry model that includes multiple levels of distributors [7][8]. - The differing strategies affect how each company gathers market feedback and manages pricing [9]. Product Lifecycle Management - Both 卡游 and 布鲁可 rely on established IPs for product development, facing challenges in creating original IPs due to the high investment required [11][12]. - Continuous product updates and innovative collaborations are essential for extending the lifecycle of their offerings [13][14]. Supply Chain Considerations - 卡游 benefits from owning its production facilities, allowing for better control over production timelines and market responsiveness [16]. - 布鲁可's reluctance to invest in a complete supply chain is attributed to high costs and the nature of its product offerings [17]. Competitive Landscape - The domestic derivative product market is growing slowly, with companies like 卡游, 布鲁可, and 泡泡玛特 (Pop Mart) competing closely, often mirroring Japanese market leaders [10][24]. - 泡泡玛特 has differentiated itself through original content and collaborations with well-known brands, while 卡游 and 布鲁可 leverage rich storytelling from their IPs [10][11]. Future Outlook - 卡游 plans to expand into international markets, particularly in Japan and Thailand, while facing challenges in the competitive Japanese market [18][19]. - 布鲁可 is accelerating its product launch pace to maximize revenue from newly acquired IPs [27]. Additional Insights - The choice of IP and product form must align with the company's strengths and market demands, considering factors like target demographics and cultural relevance [22][23]. - The ability to manage production costs and maintain quality is critical, especially in the printing and manufacturing processes [25][26].

Core Viewpoint - 52TOYS aims to become the "Chinese version of Bandai" and is preparing for an IPO in Hong Kong, focusing on a diverse range of IP toys and self-developed products [1][9]. Company Background - Founded in May 2015 by Chen Wei and Huang Jin, 52TOYS started as a collectibles company, initially focusing on derivative products from international brands [3]. - The company has developed over 100 self-owned and licensed IPs, including popular franchises like Crayon Shin-chan and Tom and Jerry, and has expanded its product lines to include various toy categories [4]. Market Position and Growth - 52TOYS has successfully penetrated both domestic and international markets, with plans to open over 100 brand stores in China and expand into Southeast Asia, Japan, Korea, and North America by the end of 2024 [4]. - The company has seen significant revenue growth, with income increasing from 463 million yuan in 2022 to 630 million yuan in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.7% [13]. Investment and Valuation - 52TOYS has raised multiple rounds of funding, with its valuation exceeding 4.2 billion yuan as of the latest funding round [5][8]. - Notable investors include Qiming Venture Partners and China International Capital Corporation, who recognize the potential of the IP derivative market in China [7][6]. Competitive Landscape - The company is often compared to Pop Mart, which has achieved significant market success, but 52TOYS differentiates itself by focusing on collectible toys rather than trendy toys [12]. - As of 2024, 52TOYS ranks second among multi-category IP toy companies in China, while Pop Mart's revenue reached over 13 billion yuan with a net profit of 3.4 billion yuan [13]. Future Outlook - 52TOYS is committed to enhancing its overseas presence, with overseas revenue growing from 35.4 million yuan in 2022 to 147 million yuan in 2024, achieving a CAGR of over 100% [14]. - The company aims to create a culture of collecting toys and make collectible toys a beloved lifestyle choice for more people [14].