这些定价从2元到30元不等的卡牌，靠"盲盒+稀有概率"的模式刺激复购，部分稀有卡出现概率低至1:216，堪比彩票中奖。有家长在黑猫投诉平台吐槽， 孩子偷偷拿家里8000元买卡，而这类未成年人非理性消费的投诉，在该平台已超6万条。 更讽刺的是，面对市场监管总局《盲盒经营活动规范指引》中"不允许未成年人单独购买盲盒"的要求，卡游的线下店铺和自动售货机几乎没有有效的年龄 核实机制，小学生仍能随意购买，合规义务形同虚设。 2025年10月，港交所的一则静默公告，为卡游的二次上市冲刺画上了句号——距离4月14日重新递表仅过去6个月，其招股书再次失效，成为港股市场罕见 的"两连跪"案例。 这个靠奥特曼卡牌征服小学生、2024年营收飙至100.57亿元、垄断国内71.1%集换式卡牌市场的巨头，在资本市场面前却屡屡碰壁。 更刺眼的是时间倒计时。卡游与红杉中国、腾讯的对赌协议明确，必须在2026年6月前完成IPO，否则需"连本带利"回购1.35亿美元股份，还要支付每年 8%的利息，算下来光赔偿就超13亿元。 一边是年收百亿、毛利率71.3%的盈利神话，一边是IPO两度失效、合规争议缠身的尴尬；一边是对赌到期的紧迫压力，一边是资 ...

Core Insights - The core of the article emphasizes the unique business model of Pop Mart, which leverages strong IP and a light asset structure to create a highly profitable commercial empire with a gross margin of 70.3% in the first half of the year and a loyal customer base of 59 million contributing over 90% of sales [1][17]. Group 1: Pop Mart's Business Model - Pop Mart's success is attributed to its strong IP and high repurchase rates, with customers making an average of 6.8 purchases per year and a repurchase rate exceeding 50%, significantly higher than luxury brands like LV [1][17]. - The emotional economy plays a crucial role in Pop Mart's rise, paralleling historical trends in Japan and the U.S. where similar consumer behaviors emerged during economic downturns [2][18]. Group 2: Competitors and Market Dynamics - Card Game (卡游) is the largest competitor to Pop Mart, reporting revenue of 10.057 billion and a net profit of 4.466 billion, with a gross margin of 68.2% [3][19]. - Despite its success, Card Game faces challenges due to its heavy reliance on IP licensing, with 73% of its revenue coming from Ultraman-related products, raising concerns about sustainability if licensing fees increase [19][20]. - 52TOYS, another competitor, has a gross margin of 68.2% and is noted for its potential to go public, but it missed critical opportunities in IP development compared to Pop Mart [5][20][22]. Group 3: Market Trends and Emotional Economy - The emotional economy is expanding beyond toys, with significant growth in pet-related products and services, reflecting changing consumer needs as birth rates decline [27][30]. - Companies like pidan and PETKIT are capitalizing on the emotional needs of pet owners, with pidan achieving sales of 830 million and a gross margin of 58% in 2024 [29][30]. - The rise of emotional value as a core competitive advantage is evident across various sectors, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards products that fulfill emotional needs [26][32].

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.18 情绪消费风起，IP 趣玩行业快速增长 [Table_Industry] 传播文化业 IP 系列报告一 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 陈筱(分析师) | 021-38675863 | chenxiao@gtht.com | S0880515040003 | | 李瑶(分析师) | 021-23185669 | liyao6@gtht.com | S0880525120001 | 本报告导读： 情绪消费趋势下，IP 食玩行业快速发展，供应链管理及 IP 运营是核心。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 传播文化业《消费周期与 AI 叙事下的中国互联 网投资新范式》2025.06.03 票 研 究 业 专 题 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 行 行业专题研究 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Summary] IP 趣玩食品是"IP+食品+IP 赠品"结合。IP 趣玩食品包括收 ...

另外，用户数据显示，2025年闲鱼平台超过四分之三的卡牌消费者为女性。男性消费者年度人均卡牌支 出为女性的3.8倍。年龄分布上，18至29岁用户占比52%，各年龄段均有卡牌消费者分布。 凤凰网科技讯12月10日，闲鱼发布《2025闲鱼卡牌年度报告》。过去两年闲鱼卡牌交易规模持续攀升， 今年前三季度交易额同比增长21%，保持稳健增长的步伐。其中，集换式卡牌交易额同比提升84%，球 星卡交易额同比提升104%。 闲鱼二次元与泛娱乐行业总经理雪海表示，数据反映出消费者更倾向于为优质IP内容付费，并关注卡牌 的收藏价值与二级市场流通潜力。 报告指出，当前国内卡牌市场呈现消费高端化与供给差异化趋势。宝可梦卡牌在集换式卡牌品类中交易 量居首，其简体中文版普及、官方赛事与线下场馆发展被视为主要推动因素。在IP收藏卡领域，小马宝 莉、叶罗丽、奥特曼等动漫IP保持领先，而《第五人格》《原神》等国产游戏IP卡牌交易量同比提升 63%。 国潮IP卡牌交易量同比大幅上升332%。其中，哪吒卡牌年度交易额超过1亿元，水浒、三国等经典名著 题材卡牌热度显著提升。影视综艺类卡牌订单量同比提升130%，《永夜星河》《白月梵星》等国产剧 集相 ...

2025年闲鱼平台超过四分之三的卡牌消费者为女性。尽管女性用户占绝对多数，男性的消费力却更为强 劲，年度人均卡牌支出是女性的3.8倍。 报告显示，宝可梦重夺卡牌IP交易量冠军；热门动漫IP小马宝莉、叶罗丽、奥特曼依然处于交易统治地 位；第五人格、恋与深空等国产游戏进入闲鱼卡牌交易量榜单，游戏IP卡交易规模提升63%。 12月10日，《2025闲鱼卡牌年度报告》发布，显示今年前三季度卡牌交易规模同比增长21%，行业保持 稳健增长态势。集换式卡牌和球星卡等高价格带卡牌交易额涨超84%，卡牌消费走向高端化。国潮IP卡 及影视综三次元卡牌表现突出，哪吒卡牌一年卖出一个亿，影视综卡牌订单量同比提升130%，《永夜 星河》《白月梵星》《难哄》进入2025年度闲鱼平台影视综卡牌交易榜前三。 ...

Core Insights - The focus of the "Double 11" shopping festival has unexpectedly shifted to collectible cards, particularly the TOPPS X THE MONSTERS/LABUBU series, which sold out quickly despite high purchase limits and pre-sale conditions [1][2] - The collectible card market in China is experiencing significant growth, with major players like Pokémon and various entertainment giants entering the space, leading to a competitive landscape [1][6] - Bubble Mart, a leading player in the trendy toy industry, reported a projected revenue growth of 245%-250% year-on-year for Q3 2025, indicating strong performance in the collectible market [1][4] Market Dynamics - The overlap between trendy toy users and card users is significant, with many card players also engaging with Bubble Mart products, although marketing strategies differ [2][5] - The traditional IP-licensed cards are facing challenges as the market becomes saturated, leading to increased competition primarily based on price and volume [2][5] - The LABUBU card's appeal lies in its unique scarcity and artistic value, featuring limited edition items that enhance its collectible nature [3][5] Competitive Landscape - The global collectible trading card market is projected to grow from $7.267 billion in 2025 to $15.433 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.36% [3][4] - China has emerged as one of the largest trading card markets, with significant growth potential as consumer spending is still relatively low compared to markets like Japan and the U.S. [4][6] - Major companies in the first tier of the market include Pokémon, Konami, and Topps, with a clear competitive hierarchy forming [4][6] Industry Trends - The Chinese card market is witnessing an influx of new players, with over 2,000 card-related companies currently operating, primarily concentrated in Guangdong, Liaoning, and Hainan [6][7] - The market is evolving towards a more mature and diversified structure, with a broader age demographic engaging with various IPs [7][8] - The future of the card market may hinge on the development of trading card games (TCG) that offer gameplay and competitive events, moving away from purely collectible cards [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities of Ultraman's copyright situation in China, highlighting the ongoing disputes between two companies, Xinchuanhua and Qiaotianzun, both claiming rights to the Ultraman IP, which affects consumer perception and the commercial future of this iconic franchise [1][5][8]. Group 1: Ultraman's Market Presence - Ultraman has evolved from a children's franchise to a beloved IP among adults, generating a total revenue of $7.4 billion in 2024, ranking it as the 53rd most profitable IP globally [5]. - The Ultraman IP has significantly benefited Xinchuanhua's partners, with KAYOU achieving revenues of 10.057 billion yuan in 2024, where Ultraman card series contributed 8.2 billion yuan, accounting for 81.5% of its total revenue [5]. - In 2023 and the first half of 2024, Bruco's revenue was heavily reliant on Ultraman products, making up 63.5% and 57.4% of its total revenue, respectively [5]. Group 2: Copyright Disputes - The copyright landscape for Ultraman in China is complicated, with Xinchuanhua recognized as the official copyright agent by Tsuburaya Productions, while Qiaotianzun claims rights based on a historical copyright transfer from the 1970s [8]. - The ongoing copyright disputes have led to confusion among consumers regarding which exhibitions and products are officially licensed, impacting the overall consumer experience [9][10]. Group 3: Quality and Consumer Experience - The fragmented copyright situation has resulted in varying quality of Ultraman-related products and experiences, leading to consumer dissatisfaction and questions about authenticity [9][10]. - Xinchuanhua has not authorized Ultraman performances in cinemas, which has raised concerns about the quality of non-officially licensed events, potentially harming the brand's reputation [9][10]. Group 4: Successful IP Management - Xinchuanhua employs a comprehensive operational strategy focusing on "content co-creation, community marketing, and breaking through scenarios," which has helped maintain Ultraman's enduring appeal [11]. - The "Chasing Light Journey: Looking Forward to the 60th Anniversary of Ultraman" exhibition exemplifies high-quality curation and adherence to the original spirit of the IP, showcasing rare props and immersive experiences [12][14]. - The long-term operational focus of Xinchuanhua contrasts with short-term profit-seeking strategies, emphasizing the importance of continuous content evolution and quality management for sustaining IP value [20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities of Ultraman's copyright situation in China, highlighting the ongoing disputes between two companies, Xinchuanhua and Qiaotianzun, both claiming rights to the Ultraman IP, which affects consumer perception and the commercial future of this iconic franchise [1][9][10]. Group 1: Ultraman's Market Presence - Ultraman has evolved over 60 years, expanding from children's entertainment to a beloved IP among adults, generating a total revenue of $7.4 billion in 2024, ranking it as the 53rd most profitable IP globally [7]. - The Ultraman IP has significantly benefited Xinchuanhua's partners, with Kayo achieving revenues of 10.057 billion yuan in 2024, where Ultraman card series contributed 8.2 billion yuan, accounting for 81.5% of its total revenue [7]. - In 2023 and the first half of 2024, Buluko's revenue was heavily reliant on Ultraman products, making up 63.5% and 57.4% of its total revenue, respectively [7]. Group 2: Copyright Disputes - The copyright landscape for Ultraman in China is complicated, with both Xinchuanhua and Qiaotianzun claiming rights, but Xinchuanhua is recognized as the official copyright agent by Tsuburaya Productions [9][10]. - The historical context of the copyright dispute dates back to 1976 when Tsuburaya transferred overseas rights to a Thai individual, leading to a long-standing legal controversy over the rights held by Qiaotianzun [10]. Group 3: Consumer Experience and Market Confusion - The confusion among consumers regarding which Ultraman exhibition is officially sanctioned reflects the broader issues of copyright fragmentation, leading to varying quality in products and services [12]. - There have been over 700 Ultraman performances across 121 cities in China in the first seven months of 2025, with many claiming authorization, yet audience feedback has raised concerns about the authenticity and quality of these performances [12][13]. Group 4: Quality and Brand Management - Xinchuanhua's operational strategy focuses on "content co-creation, community marketing, and breaking through scenarios," enhancing the Ultraman IP's longevity and value [15]. - The "Chasing Light Journey: Looking Forward to the 60th Anniversary of Ultraman" exhibition showcases high-quality curation, adhering to Tsuburaya's original settings and spirit, which has been well-received by fans [16][18]. - The exhibition features unique props and immersive experiences, reinforcing the emotional connection between the IP and its audience, as evidenced by testimonials from attendees [21]. Group 5: Sustainable IP Management - The sustainability of IP like Ultraman relies on continuous updates and iterations of its core products, ensuring that the brand remains relevant and engaging [24]. - Long-term operational strategies, as opposed to short-term profit-seeking approaches, are essential for maintaining the IP's value and consumer trust [24].

Core Insights - The article discusses the high prices and poor quality of children's performances based on the Ultraman IP, highlighting consumer dissatisfaction and potential legal implications for misleading advertising [2][4][8]. Group 1: Performance Quality and Consumer Experience - Parents are willing to pay high prices for children's performances, but many report disappointing experiences, including false advertising regarding promised perks [2][4]. - The quality of the performances is criticized, with reports of inadequate production values, such as poor lighting and sound, leading to children being frightened during the show [6][8]. - Legal experts suggest that consumers may have grounds for claims under consumer protection laws due to misleading advertising and unmet expectations [8][12]. Group 2: Licensing and Authorization Issues - The Ultraman IP has multiple licensing entities, leading to significant discrepancies in performance quality and pricing, with some performances being authorized at much lower costs [10][11][14]. - The core copyright holder, New Chuanghua, has not authorized cinema performances, raising questions about the legitimacy of some shows claiming to be officially licensed [11][13]. - Historical licensing issues stemming from a 1976 contract have resulted in a fragmented and confusing authorization landscape for the Ultraman brand in China [14][16]. Group 3: Market Potential and Economic Impact - The Ultraman IP is recognized as a highly valuable asset, with significant potential for revenue generation through various channels, including merchandise and performances [17][20]. - Companies leveraging the Ultraman IP have seen substantial financial success, with examples of significant revenue contributions from related products [17][18]. - The article emphasizes the importance of proper IP management and the potential long-term financial losses due to historical licensing mistakes [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the issues surrounding the performance of the "Ultraman" children's theater, particularly regarding high ticket prices, misleading advertising, and poor quality of the shows, leading to consumer dissatisfaction and potential legal implications for the companies involved [1][4][9]. Group 1: Performance Quality and Consumer Experience - The ticket price for the "Ultraman" show is six times that of a movie ticket, yet the promised benefits, such as a "VIP gift package," were not delivered, leading to disappointment among parents and children [2][3]. - Many parents reported that the performance quality was subpar, with inadequate stage production, poor lighting, and costumes that did not conceal performers' identities, resulting in a negative experience for children [3][4]. - Legal experts indicated that consumers could claim refunds based on misleading advertising and poor performance quality, as the high ticket prices were justified by promised additional benefits that were not fulfilled [4][9]. Group 2: Licensing and Authorization Issues - The article discusses the confusion surrounding the licensing of "Ultraman" performances, noting that multiple companies hold different rights to the IP, leading to significant discrepancies in performance quality and pricing [12][13]. - The core copyright holder, New Chuanghua, has not authorized cinema performances, while another company, Qiao Tian Zun, claims to have obtained rights through a historical contract, resulting in a chaotic licensing environment [11][12]. - The licensing fees for "Ultraman" performances can be as low as 3,000 yuan per show, raising questions about the authenticity and quality of the performances being offered in cinemas [8][12]. Group 3: Market Impact and Future Considerations - The article emphasizes the potential financial losses incurred by the original copyright holder, Round Valley, due to historical licensing decisions, estimating losses could reach hundreds of billions over the years [13][20]. - The "Ultraman" IP has significant commercial potential, with opportunities for revenue generation through merchandise, games, and theme parks, but the current licensing confusion undermines its value [13][20]. - Industry experts suggest that the future of IP management should focus on maintaining copyright integrity and developing robust licensing frameworks to avoid similar issues in the future [20].