Group 1: Yaxiang Co., Ltd. (亚香股份) - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of approximately 507 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.47% [1] - Net profit reached about 110 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 211.25% [1] - Revenue from natural flavors was 253 million yuan, accounting for half of total revenue, while synthetic flavors revenue was 127 million yuan, with a growth of over 180% [1] - The first phase of the Thailand factory project is progressing towards mass production, and the overseas price of natural vanillin has seen a temporary increase [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the 50% tariff imposed by the U.S. on India, effective from the end of August [1] - The company is negotiating long-term agreements for the output of approximately 30 tons of ambrein series [1] - The synthetic vanillin project is planned to achieve a production capacity of 4,000 tons by the end of the year, with trial production in September-October and ramp-up in Q1 2026 [1] - The Thailand factory is positioned as a global key base and is being constructed in three phases [1] - Prices of vanillin are expected to gradually increase in the second half of the year [1] - Q2 revenue saw a quarter-on-quarter decline due to capacity transfer and a cyclical demand drop, while domestic business remains stable [1] Group 2: Three Squirrels (三只松鼠) - In 2025, the food and retail industry is undergoing changes, making it difficult to generate value through past homogeneous competition [2] - The company reported revenue of 5.478 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 138 million yuan [2] - The second quarter maintained over 20% growth, in line with expectations [2] - Offline distribution achieved a doubling in growth, and the company is actively exploring self-owned brand lifestyle stores [2] - The company is transitioning towards differentiation and quality enhancement while maintaining cost leadership [2] - The company has the capability to create cost-effective products and is leveraging four major centralized bases and self-owned factories to support product entry into channels like Walmart and Ole' [2] - The company adheres to a "D+N" omnichannel system, with comprehensive e-commerce as the foundation and short video e-commerce as a "category engine," while offline distribution is still in its growth phase [2] - Nuts are the core product category, and the company has established OEM capabilities, with strong advantages in popular snack items like shredded bread and egg products [2] - The sub-brand Xiaolu Lanlan generated revenue of 437 million yuan, achieving continuous growth and profitability, with multiple million-level new products incubated within the multi-brand matrix [2]

Group 1: Company Insights - Citic Securities conducted a survey on Three Squirrels, indicating that the food and retail industry is undergoing significant changes by 2025, with a shift from homogeneous competition to a focus on high-end, quality, and differentiated products [1] - Three Squirrels reported a revenue of 5.478 billion and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 138 million, with over 20% growth in the second quarter, meeting expectations [1] - The company is experiencing a doubling in offline distribution and is actively exploring its own brand lifestyle stores, showcasing its capability to create cost-effective products while transitioning towards differentiation and quality [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The food and retail industry is expected to face challenges due to past homogeneous competition, necessitating a transformation towards high-end and differentiated offerings [1] - The company is leveraging its four major centralized bases and self-owned factories to support product entry into major retail channels like Walmart and Aldi [1] - The "D+N" omnichannel system is emphasized, with comprehensive e-commerce as the foundation, short video e-commerce as a "category engine," and offline distribution still in its growth phase [1] Group 3: Fund Performance - Citic Securities Fund, established in 2013, has an asset management scale of 67.55 billion, ranking 77 out of 210, and a non-monetary public fund scale of 56.135 billion, ranking 70 out of 210 [2] - The fund manages 117 public funds, ranking 65 out of 210, with 23 fund managers, ranking 59 out of 210 [2] - The best-performing public fund product in the past year is the Citic Securities North Exchange Selection Two-Year Open Mixed A, with a latest unit net value of 2.78 and a growth of 264.31% over the past year [2]

Group 1: Company Insights - Dongxing Fund recently conducted research on two listed companies, including Three Squirrels and Dongxin Co., focusing on their strategic shifts and financial performance [1] - Three Squirrels is transitioning towards high-end, quality, and differentiated products, achieving a revenue of 5.478 billion yuan and a net profit of 138 million yuan, with over 20% growth in Q2 [1] - Dongxin Co. reported continuous improvement in revenue and gross profit, driven by the recovery in SLC NAND Flash demand and price increases, with significant contributions from SLC NAND products [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The food and retail industry is undergoing changes, making it difficult to generate value through homogeneous competition, prompting companies to innovate [1] - The semiconductor market is experiencing a recovery in demand, particularly for SLC NAND Flash and NOR Flash products, with price adjustments following leading manufacturers [1] - The smart wearable device market is strong, with Dongxin Co. focusing on TWS headphones, feature phones, and smart wristbands, while also advancing Wi-Fi 7 wireless communication chip development [1] Group 3: Fund Performance - Dongxing Fund, established in 2020, has an asset management scale of 39.205 billion yuan, ranking 92 out of 210 in total public funds [2] - The fund's best-performing product in the past year is Dongxing Future Value Mixed A, with a net value of 1.52 and a growth of 83.82% over the last year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The snack giant Three Squirrels (300783.SZ) reported a revenue increase in the first half of 2025 but faced a significant decline in net profit, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability despite revenue growth [1][6]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 5.478 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.94% [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 138.4 million yuan, down 52.22% from the previous year [2]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses plummeted by 77.75% to 50.8 million yuan [2]. - The net cash flow from operating activities turned negative at -376.8 million yuan, a drastic decline of 1075.08% [2][4]. - Basic and diluted earnings per share both decreased by 52.05% to 0.35 yuan [2]. Revenue Growth Drivers - Revenue growth was attributed to three main factors: the early timing of the 2025 New Year goods festival, the implementation of a "D+N" omnichannel system leading to over 20% growth in Q2, and the exploration of new retail opportunities [1][2]. - The company expanded its offline distribution and saw a doubling of channel sales in Q2 [1][3]. Profit Decline Factors - Key reasons for the profit decline included rising raw material costs for nuts, changes in online platform traffic structures, increased market expenses for offline distribution, and higher depreciation and amortization costs [3][4]. - Marketing expenses surged to 1.119 billion yuan, a 25.11% increase, while management expenses rose by 57.89% to 156 million yuan, outpacing revenue growth [4]. Market Position and Challenges - The company has faced a decline in net profit despite a recovery in revenue, indicating ongoing profitability challenges [6]. - There have been frequent complaints regarding food safety issues, including product shrinkage and quality concerns [6]. Future Plans - Three Squirrels is advancing its plan for a Hong Kong IPO to enhance its global brand presence and improve its supply chain capabilities [8].

Company Overview - Three Squirrels (300783.SH) was founded in 2012 and is an innovative manufacturing self-owned brand retailer focused on providing high-quality and cost-effective snacks to consumers. The product range includes nuts, baked goods, mixed snacks, meat products, and dried fruits, along with a children's snack brand "Little Deer Blue" [1] - The company has diversified sales channels, covering major e-commerce platforms like Douyin and Taobao online, and offline through Squirrel Feeding Stores and alliance stores. It submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on April 25, 2025, with CITIC Securities as the sponsor [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the years 2022, 2023, 2024, and Q1 2025 was 72.93 billion, 71.15 billion, 106.22 billion, and 37.23 billion RMB respectively [4] - The revenue decline in 2023 was primarily due to a reduction in SKU count from over 1000 at the end of 2022 to around 600 in 2023, and a decrease in revenue contribution from traditional e-commerce platforms [5] - In 2024, revenue increased by 49.3%, driven by explosive growth in short video e-commerce channels and the expansion of multiple product categories and brands, with "Little Deer Blue" revenue growing by 58.8% [6] - Gross profit margins for 2022, 2023, 2024, and Q1 2025 were 26.2%, 22.7%, 23.8%, and 26.7% respectively [7] - Net profit for the years 2022, 2023, 2024, and Q1 2025 was 1.29 billion, 2.19 billion, 4.07 billion, and 2.39 billion RMB respectively, with a net profit margin of 1.8%, 3.1%, 3.8%, and 6.4% [11] Revenue Breakdown - In 2022, the revenue breakdown by product category was as follows: nuts (56.3%), baked goods (15.6%), mixed snacks (12.0%), meat products (9.5%), and dried fruits (4.6%) [5] - The decline in gross profit margin in 2023 was attributed to high raw material prices and increased costs associated with short video e-commerce channels [9] Operational Efficiency - As of Q1 2025, inventory decreased by 62% to 790 million RMB, and accounts payable decreased by 68% to 670 million RMB, indicating effective inventory management [12] - The company expanded its offline distribution, with revenue from offline distributors growing by 46.4% to 1.48 billion RMB in 2024 [12] Competitive Advantages - Three Squirrels maintains a high repurchase rate of 35-40%, with its children's snack brand "Little Deer Blue" also achieving a repurchase rate of around 35% [15] - The company has developed a multi-channel sales system that integrates online and offline channels, enhancing customer engagement and loyalty [15] - The company has streamlined its SKU count from over 1000 to around 400, focusing resources on creating best-selling products [17] - Over 70% of revenue comes from self-owned brands, which typically offer higher profit margins and pricing power [18] - The company operates with a low fixed asset ratio of 12.45%, allowing for flexible supply chain management and rapid expansion [20] Industry Context - The Chinese snack food industry has seen continuous growth, with market size increasing from 410 billion RMB in 2010 to 1.17 trillion RMB in 2022, and projected to reach 1.24 trillion RMB by 2027 [28] - Three Squirrels ranks as the largest domestic snack food company in China by sales, with a significant market share in the nut segment [28]

Core Viewpoint - The company, once hailed as the "national snack first stock," is now facing unprecedented challenges despite its efforts to prepare for a Hong Kong IPO, which may be a desperate attempt to cover its declining performance and seek short-term financial support [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue and net profit growth, but this trend did not continue into 2025, with Q1 financial reports showing a significant net profit decline of 22.65% year-on-year and a non-recurring net profit drop of 38.31%, indicating a clear "revenue growth without profit" phenomenon [3][4] - Sales and management expenses surged, with sales expenses reaching 695 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.24%, further eroding profit margins [3] - Operating cash flow decreased sharply, raising market concerns about the company's cash flow and financial stability [3] Seasonal Performance - The company has reported negative net profits in the second quarter for three consecutive years, with figures of -79.33 million yuan in 2022, -38.08 million yuan in 2023, and -18.58 million yuan in 2024, highlighting significant seasonal fluctuations in business performance [4] International Market Challenges - Since 2018, the company has attempted to expand into overseas markets, but by 2024, international revenue was only 696,800 yuan, accounting for a mere 0.01% of total revenue, raising doubts about the authenticity of its globalization strategy [5] - The company's new sub-brands, such as "Little Deer Blue" and "Raised a Hairy Child," have not performed well in the market, with "Little Deer Blue" generating 794 million yuan in revenue but showing a declining share of total revenue [5] Strategic Challenges - The company's founder has set an ambitious revenue target of 20 billion yuan by 2026, but the current market environment makes this goal seem distant [6] - The company faces intense competition in the offline market, particularly against merged competitors, making expansion efforts challenging [6] - Price wars in the snack industry are compressing profit margins, and maintaining competitiveness will require significant costs, further straining profitability [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent financial data of Three Squirrels (300783.SZ) raises concerns about investor confidence as the company applies for a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, showing revenue growth but a significant decline in net profit [2][6]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Three Squirrels reported revenue of 3.723 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.13%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 239 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.46% [2]. - The company aims to achieve a revenue target of 20 billion yuan by 2026, with 10 billion yuan from online and offline sales each [9][11]. Historical Growth - Three Squirrels experienced rapid growth from 2015 to 2018, with revenue increasing from 2.043 billion yuan to 7.001 billion yuan, representing a 242% growth over three years [5]. - The company became the first domestic snack company to reach a revenue of 10 billion yuan in 2019, with a market capitalization peak of 36 billion yuan in May 2020 [5][6]. Market Challenges - Since 2020, Three Squirrels has faced a decline in revenue for four consecutive years, dropping from 9.794 billion yuan to 7.115 billion yuan [6]. - The company's stock market value has decreased by 70%, falling to 10.7 billion yuan as of April 30, 2024 [7]. Online vs. Offline Sales - In 2024, online sales accounted for approximately 74.07 billion yuan, making up 69.73% of total revenue, while offline sales remain underdeveloped [7][9]. - The company has struggled to expand its offline presence, with a significant gap compared to competitors like Good Products, which has 2,700 offline stores [8]. Strategic Initiatives - To strengthen its offline market, Three Squirrels plans to open flagship stores and provide support to franchisees, aiming to enhance brand visibility and attract more partners [13]. - The company is diversifying its product offerings, including pet food and ready-to-eat meals, and plans to invest in these areas through the funds raised from the IPO [14][16]. Supply Chain and Production - Three Squirrels aims to improve its supply chain by establishing new production bases and expanding production capacity, including plans for factories in various regions of China and Vietnam [16]. - The company is also focusing on strategic alliances and acquisitions to enhance control over key segments of the value chain [17]. Marketing and Brand Awareness - The company has significantly increased its marketing expenditures, with total sales expenses reaching 10.72 billion yuan from 2019 to 2024, including nearly 6 billion yuan on advertising [17]. - Three Squirrels plans to enhance brand awareness through advertising on short video platforms and e-commerce channels [18].

Core Viewpoint - Three Squirrels has submitted an application for a Hong Kong IPO, aiming to become the first snack brand in China to achieve dual listing on A-share and H-share markets, with plans to use the raised funds for global supply chain enhancement, channel expansion, digital capabilities, and strategic investments [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2022-2024, Three Squirrels reported revenues of 72.93 billion RMB, 71.15 billion RMB, and 106.22 billion RMB respectively, with net profits increasing from 1.29 billion RMB to 4.08 billion RMB [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 139.8 billion RMB in 2024, ranking fourth in China's snack industry, following Mars, Mondelez, and PepsiCo [2] Group 2: Strategic Adjustments - Since April 2022, Three Squirrels has halted store expansion, focusing on closing underperforming stores and enhancing distribution and self-production [4] - The company has introduced a "high-end cost-performance" strategy and a "full-category + full-channel" development approach, launching over 600 new standard product units (SPUs) in 2024 [5] Group 3: Product and Brand Development - The main revenue source remains nuts, but its contribution has decreased from 56.3% in 2022 to 50.5% in 2024, while the revenue from other snacks has increased significantly [5] - The "Three Squirrels" brand saw a 50.57% revenue growth in 2024, while the "Little Deer Blue" brand, targeting children's snacks, achieved profitability and ranked among the top three in its category [6] Group 4: Channel Strategy - Revenue from short video platforms has surged from 7.17 billion RMB in 2022 to 26.35 billion RMB in 2024, increasing its share from 9.8% to 24.8% [7] - The company has reduced its offline store count from 1,065 in 2021 to 333 by the end of 2024, with offline store revenue declining during this period [8] Group 5: Future Outlook and Challenges - Three Squirrels plans to invest up to 360 million RMB to acquire control of new snack brands, aiming to expand its offline presence to over 2,000 stores [9] - The company targets a revenue of 20 billion RMB by 2026, indicating significant growth ambitions despite current challenges in maintaining its revenue structure [9] - Sales expenses increased by 50.92% in 2024, outpacing revenue growth, while overall gross margins have fluctuated, indicating potential pressure on profitability [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's "high-end cost-performance" strategy has shown effectiveness, with revenue returning to over 10 billion yuan, achieving 10.622 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 49.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 408 million yuan, up 85.51% year-on-year, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 319 million yuan, a significant increase of 214.33% [1] - The company has successfully expanded its all-channel business, enhancing terminal competitiveness. In 2024, online channels generated 7.407 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for approximately 70% of total revenue. The Douyin channel saw an 82% increase, reaching 2.188 billion yuan, while Tmall and JD platforms generated 1.937 billion yuan and 1.34 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 11.45% and 11.95% [2] - The company is advancing a multi-brand matrix layout and a comprehensive supply chain strategy, which has improved product competitiveness. The sub-brand Xiao Lu Lan achieved nearly 1 billion yuan in sales in 2024, and new brands are being incubated, contributing to a diversified product portfolio [3] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenue growth for 2025-2027 to be 13.534 billion yuan, 17.808 billion yuan, and 21.381 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 27%, 31.6%, and 20.1%, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 504 million yuan, 695 million yuan, and 879 million yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 23.5%, 38%, and 26.5% [4][8] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 21, 16, and 12 times, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [4][8]