节后销区苹果到车减少， 水果降价 苹苹苹苹 2026.2.25 作者：魏舒婷 从业资格证号：F03149087 交易咨询证号：Z0022950 研究联系方式：weishuting@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 观点小结 | 苹果 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 震荡 | 今年苹果产量偏低、国内冷库库存低，累计出库不及去年同期。现货价格维持稳定，特别是好货，现货基差较上周走强。 | | | | 销区到车量较节前明显减少，节后水果批发价普遍下降，农业部监测的六种水果中下降最多的是鸭梨、其次苹果，比价 | | | | 仍处于高位区间。后续持续关注销区成交氛围、库内货源出库情况、柑橘类水果交易情况。 | | 价格表现 | 中性 | 本周苹果盘面较节前微跌，现货方面，2月24日，栖霞一、二级80#纸袋4元/斤（与上周持平），洛川70#纸袋4.2元/斤 | | | | （与上周持平），主力合约现货基差-1705元/吨（上周-1835元/吨）。 | | 供应 | 中性偏多 | 2025年我国苹果产量 ...

Core Insights - The "Agricultural Products Wholesale Price 200 Index" increased to 129.59, up by 0.11 points from the previous day, indicating a general rise in agricultural product prices [1] - The "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index rose to 132.44, up by 0.13 points from the previous day, reflecting a similar trend in essential food items [1] Price Summary - The average wholesale price of pork reached 18.21 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.8% from the previous day - Beef prices rose to 66.61 yuan/kg, up by 0.1% - Mutton prices decreased slightly to 64.98 yuan/kg, down by 0.1% - Egg prices increased to 8.31 yuan/kg, up by 0.4% - Broiler chicken prices rose to 17.41 yuan/kg, up by 1.0% [1] Vegetable and Fruit Prices - The average price of 28 monitored vegetables was 5.58 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.9% - The average price of 6 monitored fruits was 8.06 yuan/kg, up by 1.0% [1] Fish Prices - Prices for crucian carp decreased to 19.57 yuan/kg, down by 0.8% - Carp prices fell to 14.47 yuan/kg, down by 0.3% - White catfish prices increased to 10.56 yuan/kg, up by 4.0% - Large hairtail prices rose to 44.83 yuan/kg, up by 0.4% [1] Price Changes in Key Products - The top five price increases among 46 monitored fresh agricultural products included cauliflower (4.8%), white catfish (4.0%), asparagus lettuce (4.0%), giant peak grapes (2.5%), and ginger (2.4%) - The top five price decreases included green peppers (1.3%), crucian carp (0.8%), pineapples (0.7%), potatoes (0.4%), and Fuji apples (0.3%) [2]

Core Insights - The "Agricultural Products Wholesale Price 200 Index" decreased to 130.10, down by 0.03 points from the previous day, while the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index fell to 132.98, down by 0.04 points [1] Price Summary - The average wholesale price of pork is stable at 18.50 yuan/kg, while beef decreased by 0.2% to 65.79 yuan/kg. Mutton increased by 0.6% to 63.60 yuan/kg, and eggs rose by 0.9% to 8.27 yuan/kg. The price of white-feathered chicken decreased by 0.3% to 17.27 yuan/kg [1] - The average price of 28 monitored vegetables remained unchanged at 5.66 yuan/kg, while the average price of 6 monitored fruits increased by 1.7% to 7.93 yuan/kg [1] - Specific fish prices include crucian carp at 19.31 yuan/kg (down 0.2%), carp at 13.73 yuan/kg (down 0.1%), white catfish at 10.48 yuan/kg (down 0.4%), and large hairtail at 42.65 yuan/kg (up 2.7%) [1] Price Changes in Key Products - Among 46 monitored fresh agricultural products, the top five price increases were for pineapple (4.0%), large hairtail (2.7%), giant peak grapes (1.8%), duck pears (1.6%), and zucchini (1.3%) [2] - The top five price decreases were for asparagus lettuce (5.2%), white radish (3.4%), cauliflower (1.4%), leeks (1.0%), and celery (0.9%) [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent fluctuations in wholesale prices of agricultural products in China, with an overall increase in the "Agricultural Products Wholesale Price Index" and the "Vegetable Basket" price index [1] - As of January 20, the average wholesale price of pork is 18.47 yuan/kg, showing a 0.1% increase from the previous day, while beef and fish prices have also seen slight increases [1] - The average price of 28 monitored vegetables rose by 1.1% to 5.65 yuan/kg, while the average price of 6 monitored fruits decreased by 1.6% to 7.92 yuan/kg [1] Group 2 - Among the 46 monitored fresh agricultural products, the top five price increases were seen in scallions (9.2%), asparagus lettuce (4.9%), cabbage (3.6%), Chinese cabbage (3.3%), and ginger (3.1%) [2] - Conversely, the top five price decreases were recorded for pineapple (6.5%), watermelon (2.6%), mushrooms (1.3%), giant peak grapes (1.1%), and rapeseed (1.1%) [2]

Group 1 - The core idea of the article highlights the transformation of agricultural practices in San Taizi Town, where cold storage facilities are enabling year-round production and sales of agricultural products, significantly increasing farmers' income [1][3][4] - The establishment of cold storage has allowed for the production of frozen tofu and other products, which are now available year-round, shifting from a seasonal to a continuous market presence [2][3] - The total capacity of cold storage in San Taizi Town has reached 28,000 cubic meters, facilitating the preservation of fruits like apples and grapes, thus extending their market availability and enhancing profitability for farmers [3] Group 2 - The local government has implemented a "one village, one industry" initiative, which has led to the consolidation of small processing operations into larger, standardized facilities, improving efficiency and market reach [2] - The production of frozen pears has increased significantly, with over 1,000 tons produced this year, allowing farmers to sell their products at higher prices by timing the market effectively [1][2] - The cold storage facilities have not only improved product preservation but also created numerous local job opportunities in sorting, packaging, and processing, contributing to the overall economic development of the region [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a slight increase in agricultural product wholesale prices, with the "Agricultural Products Wholesale Price 200 Index" rising to 128.24, an increase of 0.05 points from the previous day [1] - The average wholesale price of pork is reported at 18.07 yuan/kg, up by 0.4% from yesterday, while beef prices decreased by 0.7% to 65.21 yuan/kg [1] - The average price of key monitored vegetables increased by 0.7% to 5.54 yuan/kg, and the average price of key monitored fruits rose by 1.0% to 8.02 yuan/kg [1] Group 2 - Among the 46 monitored fresh agricultural products, the top five price increases were seen in watermelon (5.9%), giant peak grapes (3.2%), green beans (2.4%), cabbage (2.2%), and green peppers (2.2%) [2] - The top five price decreases were recorded for pineapple (4.5%), flower carp (3.3%), white carp (1.5%), duck pear (1.3%), and lettuce (1.2%) [2]

Group 1 - The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" increased by 0.26 points to 128.78 on December 5 [1] - The "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index rose by 0.30 points to 131.41 on the same day [1] - The average price of pork in national wholesale markets was 17.68 yuan/kg, up 0.2% from the previous day [1] Group 2 - The average price of beef decreased by 0.2% to 66.21 yuan/kg, while lamb increased by 1.4% to 63.24 yuan/kg [1] - The average price of eggs fell by 0.4% to 7.44 yuan/kg, and the price of white-feathered chicken dropped by 1.9% to 17.48 yuan/kg [1] - The average price of 28 monitored vegetables remained stable at 5.93 yuan/kg, while the average price of 6 monitored fruits rose by 1.4% to 7.41 yuan/kg [1] Group 3 - Among 46 monitored fresh agricultural products, the top five price increases were for zucchini (3.8%), watermelon (2.9%), giant peak grapes (2.2%), green onions (2.1%), and cauliflower (2.0%) [2] - The top five price decreases were for white catfish (5.2%), garlic (3.6%), pumpkin (2.6%), flower catfish (2.5%), and asparagus lettuce (2.0%) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Salt City Market Supervision Administration has reported that 12 batches of food products failed safety inspections out of a total of 589 batches tested in 2025, highlighting ongoing food safety concerns in the region [3][4]. Summary by Category Food Safety Inspection Results - A total of 589 batches of food products were tested, covering 28 categories including snacks, beverages, and frozen foods [3]. - 12 batches from five categories, including edible agricultural products, catering foods, and frozen foods, were found to be non-compliant with safety standards [3][4]. Actions Taken - The Market Supervision Administration has instructed local regulatory bodies to take immediate action to address the non-compliant products, including product recalls and risk control measures [3][4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a slight increase in the wholesale prices of agricultural products, with the "Agricultural Products Wholesale Price 200 Index" rising to 125.02, an increase of 0.38 points from the previous day [1] - The "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index also saw an increase, reaching 127.03, up by 0.44 points compared to yesterday [1] - The average price of pork decreased to 17.80 yuan/kg, down by 0.9% from the previous day, while beef and chicken prices also saw minor declines [1] Group 2 - Among the 46 monitored fresh agricultural products, the top five price increases were for lettuce, cauliflower, leeks, lettuce, and green beans, with increases of 4.9%, 3.8%, 3.7%, 3.2%, and 3.2% respectively [2] - Conversely, the top five price decreases were observed in giant peak grapes, Fuji apples, mushrooms, flower carp, and green onions, with decreases of 5.2%, 2.8%, 1.9%, 1.8%, and 1.7% respectively [2]

Core Insights - The grape industry in Caowang Town, Boxing County, Shandong Province, is thriving with a planting area of 12,000 acres and an annual output exceeding 18,000 tons, primarily consisting of high-quality varieties like "Sunshine Rose" and "Kyoho" [1][2] - The comprehensive annual output value of the grape planting and related industries in Caowang Town reaches 720 million yuan [1] - Farmers report a stable yield of over 3,000 pounds per acre, with a market price allowing for a net income exceeding 40,000 yuan per acre [1] Industry Development - The local grape industry has transitioned from scattered planting to large-scale, standardized operations, with many farmers establishing high-standard greenhouse facilities [1] - Automation in irrigation and temperature control has been implemented, with drip irrigation systems saving over 40% of water compared to traditional methods [1] - The local power supply company has developed a special power supply plan to ensure reliable electricity for agricultural operations, including the replacement of 12 kilometers of old lines and the addition of 8 transformers [1] Supply Chain and Logistics - The grape industry has established a complete "planting-processing-sales" chain, enhancing farmers' income and attracting more participants to the industry [2] - Cold storage facilities are crucial for grape preservation, with large refrigeration equipment operating continuously to maintain optimal temperatures [2]