全球军贸迎来新一轮增长期，中国军贸开始崛起 20250813 摘要 全球军贸因地缘政治紧张局势加剧而再次活跃，美国仍占据主导地位， 中国份额逐步提升，尤其是在中东和非洲地区，通过军事合作深化了政 治互信和经济联系。 军工企业通过国际军贸扩大市场规模，获得稳定订单，提升企业估值， 并增强国家在全球范围内的话语权和影响力，巴基斯坦和孟加拉国对中 国军备的依赖性是稳定收入的来源。 近期国际冲突导致弹药消耗增加，刺激了各国对无人机、防空导弹等装 备的补充需求，中国的空战和防空体系在中东地区获得认可，埃及已成 体系地购买中国的作战系统。 中国在全球百强军工企业中占据九席，涵盖飞机制造、导弹生产等多个 领域，军贸产品主要包括飞机、导弹、舰船和装甲车，其中飞机占据较 大份额。 中国通过整合军工资源，避免内部竞争，提升全球市场竞争力，如中国 船舶集团合并南船和北船后，新开工和市占率以及完工率均占全球 50% 以上。 Q&A 当前全球军贸行业的发展趋势及其对中国的影响如何？ 全球军贸行业呈现出周期性波动，主要受到国际局势和地缘政治的影响。自 1,950 年以来，全球军贸经历了三个主要阶段：冷战前期、冷战后期以及反恐 时期。在冷 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the defense and military industry as "Outperforming the Market" [4] Core Insights - The global military trade industry is entering a new growth phase due to rising military expenditures driven by international tensions, particularly following the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][14] - The export share of military trade is increasing for both the US and China, while Ukraine and Middle Eastern countries are seeing a rise in import shares [1][26] - China's military trade is expected to grow, supported by strong military enterprises and improved relations with Arab countries, alongside the disruption of global supply chains due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. Global Military Trade Growth - The military trade industry is experiencing a new growth phase, influenced by geopolitical tensions and increased military spending by various countries [1][14] - The global military trade index has shown a cyclical pattern, with significant growth observed since 2002, reaching 289.4 billion TIVs in 2024, a 63% increase from 2002 [16][18] 2. China's Military Trade Export Potential - China's military exports are subject to strict licensing and approval processes, which are crucial for maintaining control over military trade [37] - In 2023, China's military exports reached a peak of 10.05% of global military trade, recovering from a low of 2.74% in 2020 [38][39] - The report highlights that nine Chinese companies made it to the global top 100 military enterprises list in 2023, with a total weapon sales amount of 102.89 billion USD, accounting for 16.3% of the total sales of the top 100 [44][47] 3. Focus Areas for Investment - The report suggests focusing on military aircraft, drones, precision-guided munitions, and radar systems as key areas for investment, given their increasing demand in modern warfare [3][30] - The military trade projects are seen as a significant revenue source for military enterprises, enhancing both revenue scale and profitability [2][3] 4. Global Military Trade Import Dynamics - The import share of military trade is rising for countries like Ukraine, India, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, while China's import share has decreased significantly [26][28] - The report indicates that the military equipment demand is highest for aircraft, followed by missiles, ships, and armored vehicles, with aircraft accounting for nearly half of the military trade market [30][32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the defense and military industry [4] Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing demand for advanced, domestically produced military equipment, which is expected to enhance China's military trade capabilities [26][72] - The performance of major companies in the industry is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the upstream components sector, with many companies reporting positive earnings forecasts [11][22] - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of companies like AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group (中航西飞) and AVIC Chengfei (中航成飞) in the context of military exports, particularly with their advanced aircraft models [36][42] Summary by Sections Performance Forecast - As of July 20, 2025, 32 companies have released performance forecasts, with a significant number indicating positive growth in their second-quarter earnings, particularly in the upstream components sector [16][18] - The report notes that 56.25% of the companies forecasted year-on-year growth for Q2 2025, while 50% indicated quarter-on-quarter growth [18] Military Trade - The report discusses the shift towards high-end military trade, driven by the development of domestically produced aircraft such as the J-10 and J-35, which are now export-ready [28][72] - AVIC Chengfei is highlighted as a key player with its J-10 model, which has seen increased international interest, particularly from Indonesia [36][42] - AVIC Xi'an is noted for its Y-20 transport aircraft, which is positioned to become a leading model in the military transport market due to its competitive specifications [46] Company Highlights - AVIC Xi'an is recognized for its production of large military transport aircraft and is expected to benefit from the growing demand for such models [42][46] - AVIC Chengfei is acknowledged for its successful export of advanced military aircraft, with the J-10 model being a standout performer in international markets [36][42] - The report also mentions the potential for companies like Hongdu Aviation (洪都航空) and AVIC Helicopter (中直股份) to expand their export capabilities with their respective aircraft and missile systems [47][50] Market Trends - The report indicates a trend of increasing military trade demand due to global conflicts, which is expected to drive growth in the industry [72][71] - The military trade landscape is evolving, with a focus on high-quality, domestically produced equipment that meets international standards [72][71]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [1] Core Viewpoints - The memorandum signed by U.S. Secretary of Defense aims to reform the U.S. military drone strategy, targeting dominance in the small drone sector by 2027, emphasizing modernization, production expansion, and regulatory relief [1][2] - The U.S. military is shifting towards a low-cost, disposable, and distributed drone combat system, recognizing the effectiveness of inexpensive drones in modern warfare [2] - The memorandum allows military commanders to independently procure and test drones, reclassifying small drones as "consumable assets" rather than durable military equipment [3][5] Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The U.S. government will provide financing options for domestic drone manufacturers, including pre-purchase commitments and direct loans [3] - The memorandum revokes previous policies that restricted the procurement of drones from certain countries, streamlining the acquisition process [3] - Commanders from the rank of captain to colonel are authorized to procure and test compliant small drones, including those with 3D-printed components [5] Development and Testing - The establishment of at least three national drone test ranges with diverse terrains is mandated within 90 days [4] - The military aims to create a comprehensive drone system, with hundreds of different models to be procured [5] - By September 2025, the military branches are required to establish experimental drone units to facilitate rapid deployment [6] Technological Integration - AI technology significantly enhances drones' capabilities, allowing for improved environmental perception and autonomous decision-making [7] - Drones are equipped with multi-modal sensors for comprehensive situational awareness, optimizing flight paths and reducing energy consumption [7] Market Dynamics - China dominates the commercial drone production sector, accounting for 70% to 80% of global supply, benefiting from cost-effective production and supply chain efficiencies [8] - Recent trends show a significant increase in the prices of drone components due to supply chain constraints, despite a drop in export volumes [8] Investment Opportunities - Recommended companies include: - Ruichuang Micro-Nano, a leader in multi-dimensional sensing with a full industrial chain in infrared technology [9] - Fudan Microelectronics, a domestic leader in FPGA technology with applications in drones [11] - Aerospace Rainbow, specializing in high-end military drones with advanced capabilities [11]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for the military trade industry, highlighting the potential for high-end and systematic development to reshape the valuation of core military assets by 2025 [3]. Core Viewpoints - The military trade industry is experiencing a significant upward trend driven by geopolitical factors, with global military spending expected to reach a new high in 2024, particularly in Europe and the Middle East [46][50]. - Domestic military enterprises are seizing historical opportunities in military trade, with China's military trade exports growing at a CAGR of 10.4% from 2000 to 2023, increasing its global share from 1.6% to 10.0% [57]. - The report emphasizes the importance of a dual-cycle model ("domestic + overseas") to effectively hedge against domestic demand fluctuations and enhance growth potential through comprehensive lifecycle management [5][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Model - The military trade sector effectively balances domestic demand fluctuations through a dual-driven model of "local + overseas," which opens up growth opportunities via systematic solutions and full lifecycle management [5][20]. - Overseas operations contribute significantly to higher profit margins, with military trade orders helping to enhance production capacity and delivery rates [6][24]. 2. Demand Drivers - Global military spending continues to rise, with geopolitical tensions accelerating the growth of military equipment transactions [46]. - The instability of the Russia-Ukraine situation has led to a significant reduction in Russian military exports, creating supply gaps in military aircraft, armored vehicles, and engines [50]. 3. Supply Landscape - The U.S. has maintained the largest share of military trade exports globally, while China's military equipment is increasingly competitive, particularly in the drone and long-range artillery markets [8][54]. - China's military trade exports have diversified, with Pakistan being the largest customer, and other Asian and Middle Eastern countries increasing their imports of Chinese military equipment [57]. 4. Key Companies Overview - The report identifies several key companies in the military trade sector, including AVIC, China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation, and Poly Technologies, which are actively expanding their military trade capabilities [10][39].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese reconnaissance and strike unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) system market is experiencing steady growth driven by strong military demand and technological advancements, with the market size projected to reach approximately $19.48 billion in 2024 from $17.95 billion in 2023 [1][9]. Industry Definition and Classification - The reconnaissance and strike UAV system integrates reconnaissance and strike capabilities, enabling tasks such as intelligence collection, target monitoring, and precise strikes against enemy targets [2][4]. Industry Chain Analysis - The industry chain is a highly collaborative and technology-driven ecosystem, comprising upstream materials, midstream platform development, and downstream military and civilian applications, showcasing high system integration and diverse application scenarios [4][6]. Development History - The industry has evolved over 40 years from technology imitation to global leadership, with significant advancements in UAV capabilities and international exports since the 2000s [6][9]. Current Market Analysis - The market size for the reconnaissance UAV system in China was approximately $17.95 billion in 2023, with expectations to grow to about $19.48 billion in 2024, driven by military procurement and emerging civilian applications [9][11]. Application Fields - The industry is primarily military-focused (80%), with significant roles in counter-terrorism and emergency rescue (15%), and a growing civilian sector (5%) in agriculture and logistics [13][15]. Key Enterprises Analysis - The competitive landscape features leading companies like Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group and Aerospace Rainbow, which dominate the market through comprehensive strategies and technological advancements [15][19]. Future Development Trends - The industry is expected to focus on dual drivers of intelligence and stealth capabilities, with advancements in AI and stealth technologies enhancing operational effectiveness [21][22]. - The export and localization strategy is crucial for overcoming trade barriers, with plans for assembly bases in countries like the UAE and Pakistan [22][23]. - Core component localization is essential for sustainable development, with advancements in domestic engines, AI chips, and materials technology reducing reliance on imports [24][25].