10月30日，伊利股份发布2025年前三季度业绩：1至9月实现营业收入905.64亿元，同比增长1.71%；扣 非归母净利润101.03亿元，同比增长18.73%。 "业绩超预期。"这是公告评论区投资者对企业三季报的主流看法。事实上，受国际国内大环境影响，产 业链上下游经营压力增加，我国奶业已进入深度调整期。在消费复苏不均衡的背景下，伊利的业绩韧性 源自哪里？构建行业"抗周期"能力的良方究竟是什么？带着疑问，上海证券报记者走进了这家行业龙头 企业。 盈利引擎的"质变"与"扩容" 呼和浩特伊利现代智慧健康谷的斑斓秋色中，超高速灌装机正以每小时4万包的速度静谧运转，每秒有 11包鲜奶在数智系统监控下精准灌装下线。 "这一幕高效的生产场景，就是伊利发展速度的生动写照。"伊利集团副总裁韩飞与记者分享他最近的心 得，"'抗周期'核心不是单纯的规模扩张，而是盈利质量与业务结构的双重优化。" 据韩飞介绍，2025年1至9月，公司基石业务液体乳稳居行业第一，实现营收549.39亿元。其中，金典有 机乳铁蛋白牛奶等产品，成为节日礼赠市场爆款。 业务结构的"多点支撑"则让抗周期底气更足。深加工是奶业破解周期性波动难题的有效方式。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest half-year report for 2025 reveals the strong growth momentum of Yili Group, highlighting its robust performance across various product categories and successful international expansion [1][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Yili achieved revenue of 61.933 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.37%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses reached 7.016 billion yuan, up 31.78%, setting a new historical high [4][6]. - The company maintains its position as the leading player in the Asian dairy industry, with a continued expansion of its competitive advantage [4]. Business Structure Optimization - Yili's business structure is continuously optimizing, with stable growth in its core liquid milk segment and significant market share gains in milk powder and cheese, contributing to the "second growth curve" [3][6]. - The revenue from milk powder and dairy products has increased from 11% of total revenue in 2019 to 27% in the first half of 2025, indicating a diversification and balance in product offerings [6]. Product Innovation and Development - Yili has launched several innovative products, including various types of tea and low-sodium mineral water for infants, which have received high market recognition and contributed to double-digit growth in the water beverage segment [7]. - The company has established a diverse product matrix, with leading brands in various categories such as liquid milk, infant formula, and ice cream, focusing on specific consumer segments and scenarios [7]. International Expansion - Yili's internationalization efforts are accelerating, with brands like "Jinlingguan" entering markets in Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia, and a notable presence at the 2025 FIBA Asia Cup [8][12]. - The overseas cold drink business has seen a revenue increase of 14.4%, while the infant goat milk powder segment has grown by 65.7% [8]. Global Supply Chain and Sustainability - The company is enhancing its global supply chain network, achieving efficient coordination between domestic and international markets, particularly in regions like Oceania and Europe [10][13]. - Yili is committed to building a sustainable ecosystem, with initiatives like the "Zero Carbon Alliance" and the "Global Low Water Footprint Initiative," which have seen significant participation from industry partners [15]. Research and Development - Yili has established a global innovation network with 15 innovation centers, collaborating with renowned universities and research institutions to drive advancements in nutrition, food safety, and sustainable packaging [15][16]. - The company emphasizes local adaptation in product development, tailoring offerings to meet regional tastes and preferences, which enhances brand resilience in international markets [18].

Core Viewpoint - The dairy industry in China is facing significant challenges in 2024 due to oversupply, weak demand, and high inventory levels, leading to a continuous decline in fresh milk prices and worsening competition among companies [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - In 2024, major dairy brands such as Yili, Mengniu, and Guangming reported revenue declines of 8.24%, 10.09%, and 8.33% respectively, with net profits dropping by 18.94%, 97.83%, and 25.36% [1][3]. - Yili's revenue for 2024 was 1157.80 billion yuan, marking its first negative growth since its listing, with a significant drop in liquid milk revenue, which accounts for over 60% of total revenue [3][5]. - Yili's liquid milk revenue fell by 12.32% to 750.03 billion yuan, while its ice cream revenue decreased by 18.41% to 87.21 billion yuan; however, its milk powder and dairy products segment saw a 7.53% increase in revenue [3][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Chinese dairy market has entered a prolonged adjustment period since 2022, with retail sales growth turning negative and ongoing weak demand [3][13]. - The supply of raw milk has outpaced demand, resulting in an imbalance that has driven down retail prices for dairy products [3][13]. - The overall consumption of liquid milk in China has been declining, with a notable 8.6% drop in 2022 [13]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Yili has implemented cost-cutting measures, reducing sales and management expenses by 2.61% and 13.37% respectively, saving a total of 1.279 billion yuan [5][6]. - The company is diversifying its product offerings, with a focus on milk powder, which has shown growth, and has ventured into new markets such as high-end bottled water and pet food [8][10]. - Yili's recent product launches include sugar-free tea and functional nutrition products targeting the elderly, indicating a strategic shift to reduce reliance on traditional dairy products [10][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The dairy industry is at a crossroads, with companies needing to explore new growth avenues in a saturated market, as seen with Yili's efforts to expand into non-dairy segments [11][15]. - The competition in emerging markets such as pet food and health-focused products is intensifying, requiring established players like Yili to adapt quickly to maintain market leadership [15][16]. - The transformation journey for Yili and other dairy giants is expected to be challenging but essential for their survival and growth in the evolving consumer landscape [16].

Core Insights - Yili and Mengniu are transitioning away from high growth models, facing significant goodwill impairments from past acquisitions, particularly in the infant formula market [1][3][4] Financial Performance - In 2024, Yili reported revenue of 115.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 8.24%, and a net profit of 8.453 billion yuan, down 18.94%, primarily due to a 3.037 billion yuan impact from goodwill impairment related to Aoyou [1][6] - Mengniu's revenue for 2024 was 88.675 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.1%, with a net profit of 105 million yuan, a staggering drop of 97.8%, largely due to a 3.9814 billion yuan impact from goodwill impairment related to Bellamy [1][5] Market Trends - The focus of goodwill impairments for both companies is centered on the infant formula market, which has been experiencing a downturn since 2022 [3][4] - The infant formula market is facing challenges, with offline sales down 9.8% and sales volume down 9.4% in 2024, indicating a shift towards a saturated market [5][10] Strategic Moves - Yili's acquisition of Aoyou and Mengniu's acquisition of Bellamy were strategic moves aimed at entering the high-end infant formula market, despite the declining market conditions [3][5] - Both companies are now focusing on high-margin products, with Yili's milk powder and dairy products achieving a gross margin of 41.02% in 2024, compared to lower margins in liquid milk and ice cream [8][11] Future Outlook - Yili and Mengniu are adjusting their strategies to improve profitability, with Yili aiming for a diversified product portfolio and Mengniu targeting revenue growth by 2025 [22][23] - The competition in the infant formula market is expected to intensify as companies strive for profitability amidst a shrinking market [24][25]

Core Insights - The annual report of Yili Group for 2024 shows a total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan, with a net profit of 11.539 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.2% after excluding goodwill impairment [1][2] - The first quarter report for 2025 indicates a revenue of 33.018 billion yuan, a 1.35% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.629 billion yuan, up 24.19%, demonstrating improved profitability [1][2] - Yili's dividend payout for 2024 reached a record high of 7.726 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of 91.4%, and total shareholder returns equating to 100.4% of net profit [4] Industry Overview - The dairy industry faces challenges in 2024, including increased raw milk production and insufficient consumer demand, yet Yili maintains a leading position in Asia with stable revenue growth [2] - Yili's gross margin has improved by 377 basis points from 2020 to 2024, indicating strong operational efficiency and resilience against market risks [2] Product Performance - Yili's liquid milk business generated 75.003 billion yuan in revenue, maintaining its industry leadership, while the high-end low-temperature milk segment saw over 30% growth [3] - The infant formula and dairy products segment achieved a revenue of 29.675 billion yuan, a 7.53% increase, with the "Golden Crown" brand experiencing double-digit growth [3] Strategic Initiatives - Yili plans to develop a new five-year strategic plan in the second half of 2025, with a focus on internationalization as a key agenda [1][7] - The company aims to enhance its growth logic through a "dual-wheel drive" strategy, expanding into the health food sector and building a non-dairy business framework [6][7] Future Outlook - Yili is optimistic about maintaining a positive profit margin trend, targeting a 9% profit margin for 2025, and plans to uphold a dividend payout ratio of no less than 70% [8]

Core Viewpoint - The dairy giant Yili (600887.SH) has ended its 30-year growth streak due to unprecedented industry pressures, with significant declines in revenue and profit expected in 2024 [1][2]. Financial Performance - Yili's 2024 revenue is projected to be 115.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 8.24%, while net profit is expected to drop to 8.45 billion yuan, down 18.9% [2]. - In Q4, Yili made a substantial impairment provision of 5.2 billion yuan, resulting in a quarterly loss of 2.42 billion yuan, further pressuring annual profits [3]. Impairment and Asset Valuation - A major component of the impairment was a goodwill write-down of 3.04 billion yuan related to the acquisition of Ausnutria (1717.HK), which has seen a significant decline in performance [4]. - Other impairment provisions included 1.23 billion yuan for inventory and 370 million yuan for fixed assets due to market demand changes and technological obsolescence [5]. Industry Challenges - The dairy industry has faced negative retail growth since 2022, with a 2.7% decline in overall sales in 2024, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances [9][10]. - Yili's liquid milk segment saw a revenue drop of 12.3% in 2024, with a decrease in both sales volume and price [11]. Market Strategy - To protect distributor profits, Yili began channel inventory clearance in Q2 2024, leading to a significant revenue drop of 16.5% in Q2, which narrowed to 6.7% in Q3 [12][13]. - By Q3, Yili completed channel clean-up, stabilizing sales during peak seasons [14]. Future Outlook - Yili anticipates a potential turnaround in 2025, with Q1 revenue showing a slight increase of 1.35% and net profit rising by 24.19% [17]. - The company remains cautious about demand recovery, projecting only a 2.8% increase in full-year revenue for 2025 [18]. Market Share and Growth Engines - Yili's liquid milk revenue has stagnated, with a slight increase to 85.54 billion yuan in 2023, but its market share in this segment is declining [21][22]. - Conversely, the infant formula segment is experiencing growth, with a 7.53% increase in revenue to 29.675 billion yuan in 2024, driven by rising birth rates [26][29]. Diversification Efforts - Yili is exploring diversification beyond dairy, including launching new tea and mineral water products, while also focusing on functional dairy products [40][43]. - The company is also investing in health-related sectors and has established a venture capital fund targeting high-tech innovations in the health industry [48].

Core Viewpoint - The company is cautiously optimistic about the dairy industry's supply-demand balance, expecting a phase of stabilization in Q3, while maintaining a focus on channel management and price control to navigate market challenges [1][2][4]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current supply-demand imbalance in the dairy industry originated in the second half of 2021, driven by increased consumer demand and enhanced production capabilities, leading to a rapid rise in cow numbers and milk yield [2]. - The company anticipates that the willingness of upstream farms to exit the market will increase, contributing to a more balanced supply-demand situation by Q3 [2][4]. - Management believes that the recent decline in raw milk prices will lead to a more rational approach among industry partners regarding demand forecasts, reducing the volatility seen in the past [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Strategy - In Q1, the company reported a strong start with improved sales and healthy inventory levels, despite a cautious outlook on short-term demand recovery [4][5]. - The company aims to achieve a net profit margin of 9% by 2025, indicating a focus on improving profitability [4]. - The milk powder and dairy products segment generated revenue of 29.675 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.53%, with significant contributions from infant formula and adult nutrition products [5]. Group 3: Product Development and Market Expansion - The company is actively developing new high-end products, including specialized milk powders aimed at youth growth and sleep aid, in collaboration with strategic partners [7]. - The B2B segment is expected to grow significantly, driven by increasing consumer acceptance of dairy products in various food sectors [7][8]. - The company has established a solid foundation in international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, where it has seen double-digit growth in ice cream sales [8].

Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining its position as the leading dairy company in Asia, with a net profit of 11.539 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 12.2% after excluding goodwill impairment [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 33.018 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.35%, and a net profit of 4.629 billion yuan, up 24.19%, indicating a stable performance amidst industry challenges [1] Revenue Breakdown - The liquid milk business generated revenue of 75.003 billion yuan in 2024, holding the top position in the industry, with market share increases in both ambient white milk and ambient yogurt [2] - The cold drink segment achieved revenue of 8.721 billion yuan, maintaining its leadership in the national cold drink industry for 30 consecutive years [2] Growth Drivers - The milk powder and dairy products segment reached a revenue of 29.675 billion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 7.53%, with the adult milk powder market share continuing to rise [3] - The cheese business showed significant growth, particularly in the high-value 2B sector, with revenue increasing by over 20% year-on-year [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company operates 15 R&D centers globally and leads the only national-level technology innovation center in China's dairy industry [4] - A strategic partnership with Tongrentang aims to launch a series of functional products, exploring the frontier of traditional Chinese medicine [4] - The upcoming cheese manufacturing benchmark base will address import dependencies and enhance product structure, driving the industry towards higher value [4] - The integration of digital technologies such as AI and IoT into operations has significantly improved efficiency and reduced product launch cycles [4]

Core Viewpoint - In a challenging industry environment, Yili Group demonstrates resilience and strong performance with impressive financial results, showcasing its robust operational quality and strategic adjustments to drive growth [1][2]. Financial Performance - Yili achieved a total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining its position as the leading dairy company in Asia, with a net profit of 11.54 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 12.2% after excluding goodwill impairment [1] - In Q1 2025, Yili reported a revenue of 33.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.35%, and a net profit of 4.63 billion yuan, marking a significant growth of 24.19% [1] - The overall gross margin for 2024 increased by 131 basis points to 34.03%, indicating enhanced profitability, while operating cash flow reached 21.74 billion yuan, up 18.86% [2]. Shareholder Returns - Yili plans to distribute a cash dividend of 7.73 billion yuan for 2024, with a payout ratio of 91.4%, setting a new historical high [3] - The total shareholder return, including dividends and share buybacks, reached 100.4% of profits, reflecting strong cash flow and management confidence in long-term growth [3]. Business Diversification - Yili's strategy to enhance business balance through a three-tier business matrix is aimed at building resilience against market cycles [4]. - The liquid milk and ice cream segments remain strong, with liquid milk revenue reaching 75.00 billion yuan, maintaining the top industry position [5]. - The milk powder and dairy products segment achieved a revenue of 29.68 billion yuan, growing by 7.53%, contributing to Yili's competitive advantage [5]. Innovation and Sustainability - Yili emphasizes a "quality × N" strategy, integrating innovation, digitalization, and sustainability to drive long-term value [9]. - The company operates 15 R&D centers globally, enhancing its innovation capabilities in dairy products [10]. - Yili's commitment to sustainable development is evident in its initiatives in green practices, rural revitalization, and social welfare, positioning it as a leader in sustainable dairy practices [12].