| 最新收盘价（元） | 27.77 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）4.18 / 3.37 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）116 / 94 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 34.44 / 22.83 | | 资产负债率(%) | 30.0% | | 市盈率 | 21.12 | | 第一大股东 | 姚朔斌 | 研究所 分析师:王晓萱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522080005 Email:wangxiaoxuan@cnpsec.com 姚记科技(002605) 证券研究报告：传媒 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 买入|维持 个股表现 -10% -4% 2% 8% 14% 20% 26% 32% 38% 44% 2024-09 2024-12 2025-02 2025-05 2025-07 2025-09 姚记科技 传媒 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 ⚫ 事件回顾 2025 年 8 月 26 日，公司发布 2025 年半年报， 2025H1，公司实 现营业收入 14.38 亿元，同比下降 24.64%；归母净利润 2.56 亿元，同 比下降9.98% ...

Macro and Strategy - The bond market is experiencing a downward trend, influenced by expectations and emotions, with a focus on upcoming economic data and Federal Reserve meetings [8][9] - Domestic GDP growth rate for July was approximately 4.3%, a decline of 0.9 percentage points from June, with construction and industrial sectors being the main drags [8][9] Banking Industry - In the first half of 2025, listed banks reported total operating income of CNY 2.92 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 1.10 trillion, up 0.8% [9][10] - The overall net interest margin decreased by 14 basis points to 1.41%, with expectations of continued narrowing due to weak credit demand and LPR adjustments [10][11] - Asset quality pressure is slightly increasing, particularly in the retail sector, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.16% remaining stable [20][21] Internet Industry - The Hong Kong internet sector is currently undervalued globally, with the Hang Seng Tech Index PE-TTM at 21.94x, indicating a recovery in valuations [12][13] - AI-driven performance is significantly enhancing revenue and profit for major internet companies, with Tencent's advertising growth at 20% and Alibaba Cloud's growth accelerating to 26% [14][15] Insurance Industry - In the first half of 2025, listed insurance companies saw a 4.9% year-on-year increase in net profit, driven by fluctuations in bond and equity markets [15][16] - The insurance service revenue for five major listed insurers reached CNY 831.52 billion, a 3.5% increase year-on-year, with a notable rise in the proportion of floating-type products [16][17] Company-Specific Insights - **CITIC Bank (601998.SH)**: Reported a slight decrease in revenue to CNY 105.76 billion, with a net profit increase of 2.78% [19][20] - **Zhongshan Public Utilities (000685.SZ)**: Achieved a net profit growth of 29.6% in the first half of 2025, driven by investment income [22][23] - **Wheaton Resources (01208.HK)**: Experienced a significant net profit increase of 1511% in the first half of 2025, benefiting from rising precious metal prices and improved production efficiency [25][26] - **Huace Film & TV (300133.SZ)**: Reported a revenue increase of 114.94% and a net profit increase of 65.05% in the first half of 2025, driven by strong performance in TV production [28][29] - **Yaoji Technology (002605.SZ)**: Faced a revenue decline of 24.64% in the first half of 2025, primarily due to fluctuations in digital marketing and card game businesses [31][32] - **Zhiou Technology (301376.SZ)**: Achieved revenue growth of 8.7% and net profit growth of 11.0% in the first half of 2025, supported by supply chain optimization [34][35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8]. Core Views - The company's revenue is under pressure due to business structure adjustments, but profitability is improving. The card and marketing business has seen an increase in profit margins, and the company is expected to maintain steady growth in its main business while enhancing efficiency [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.438 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.64%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 256 million yuan, down 9.98% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, revenue was 660 million yuan, down 28.84% year-on-year, with a net profit of 115 million yuan, down 13.70% year-on-year [4][6]. Business Segments - **Gaming**: Revenue for the gaming segment in H1 2025 was 481 million yuan, a decrease of 6.33% year-on-year, accounting for 33.44% of total revenue. The gross margin slightly increased to 96.39% [6]. - **Playing Cards**: The playing card segment generated revenue of 429 million yuan in H1 2025, down 12.72% year-on-year, representing 29.79% of total revenue. The gross margin decreased slightly to 29.93% [6]. - **Digital Marketing**: Revenue from digital marketing was 520 million yuan, down 40.76% year-on-year, making up 36.19% of total revenue, with a gross margin increase to 8.16% [6]. Profitability and Forecast - The company's gross margin improved to 45.10% in Q2 2025, up from 35.68% in Q2 2024 and 44.27% in Q1 2025. The report forecasts net profits of 590 million yuan and 660 million yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 20.3 and 18.1 [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company's revenue has been under pressure due to adjustments in the digital marketing segment, with a significant year-on-year decline of 24.64% in the first half of 2025 [7]. - The gaming business remains resilient, with a slight revenue decline of 6% year-on-year, indicating strong player engagement [7]. - The company is strategically investing in the collectible card market, particularly focusing on sports cards, to diversify its entertainment offerings [7]. - Future revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 33.86 billion, 36.40 billion, and 38.47 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 5.54 billion, 6.35 billion, and 6.97 billion [7]. Financial Data Summary - The company reported total revenue of 14.38 billion in the first half of 2025, with a net profit of 2.56 billion [1][7]. - The digital marketing segment's revenue fell to 5.2 billion, accounting for 36% of total revenue, down from 46% in the previous year [7]. - The gaming segment's revenue increased its share to 33% of total revenue, while the card business accounted for 30% [7]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.33, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 21.4 [2][10]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price is 28.41 yuan, with a market capitalization of 11.9 billion [3]. - The company has a return on equity (ROE) of 14.2% and a debt-to-asset ratio of 28.2% [3][10]. - The estimated price-to-book (PB) ratio for 2025 is 2.9, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical levels [2][10].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the performance of Yaoji Convertible Bonds, which saw a decline of 2.1% to 178.377 yuan per bond, with a trading volume of 59.506 million yuan and a conversion premium rate of 24.59% [1] - Yaoji Convertible Bonds have a credit rating of "A+" and a maturity period of 6 years, with interest rates increasing from 0.30% in the first year to 3.00% in the sixth year [1] - The conversion price for the bonds is set at 20.08 yuan, with the conversion start date on July 31, 2024 [1] Group 2 - Shanghai Yaoji Technology Co., Ltd., originally known as Shanghai Yaoji Poker Co., Ltd., was established in 1994 and is recognized as a leading company in the printing industry in China [2] - The company has evolved into a modern poker production base with an annual output of 800 million decks, gaining global recognition in the poker industry [2] - In the first half of 2025, Yaoji Technology reported a revenue of 1.4382 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 24.64%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 255.8 million yuan, down 9.98% year-on-year [2] - As of June 2025, the concentration of shareholding in Yaoji Technology is relatively dispersed, with the top ten shareholders holding a combined 54.07% and the top ten circulating shareholders holding 43.7% [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the performance and characteristics of the convertible bond issued by Yaoji Technology, which has seen a price increase and a specific conversion premium rate [1] - The convertible bond has a credit rating of "A+" and a maturity period of 6 years with varying interest rates from 0.30% in the first year to 3.00% in the sixth year [1] - The conversion price for the bond is set at 20.08 yuan, with the conversion period starting on July 31, 2024 [1] Group 2 - Yaoji Technology, originally established as Shanghai Yaoji Poker Co., Ltd. in 1994, has evolved into a leading modern poker production base with an annual output of 800 million decks [2] - The company has transitioned from traditional manufacturing to a comprehensive innovative enterprise, investing in various high-quality internet technology and healthcare companies [2] - For the first quarter of 2025, Yaoji Technology reported a revenue of 778.7 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.67%, and a net profit of 140.7 million yuan, down 6.7% year-on-year [2] - As of March 2025, the concentration of shareholding in Yaoji Technology is relatively dispersed, with the top ten shareholders holding a combined 53.5% and the top ten circulating shareholders holding 43.04% [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the performance and characteristics of the convertible bond issued by Yaoji Technology, which has seen a price increase and a specific conversion premium rate [1] - The convertible bond has a credit rating of "A+" and a maturity period of 6 years with varying interest rates over the years [1] - The conversion price for the bond is set at 20.08 yuan, with the conversion period starting on July 31, 2024 [1] Group 2 - Yaoji Technology, originally established as Shanghai Yaoji Poker Co., Ltd. in 1994, has become a leading manufacturer in the global playing card industry, producing 800 million decks annually [2] - The company has transitioned from traditional manufacturing to a comprehensive innovative enterprise, investing in various high-quality internet technology and healthcare companies [2] - For the first quarter of 2025, Yaoji Technology reported a revenue of 778.7 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 20.67%, and a net profit of 140.7 million yuan, down 6.7% year-on-year [2] - As of March 2025, the shareholding structure of Yaoji Technology is relatively dispersed, with the top ten shareholders holding a combined 53.5% of shares [2]

Group 1 - The core business of the company includes mobile game operations and the design, production, and sales of various playing cards, with digital marketing contributing the highest revenue share at 34.91% and playing cards at 33.07% [3] - Since its listing in 2011, the company has achieved a cumulative net profit growth of 643.01%, reaching 539 million yuan in the latest fiscal year 2024, with no annual losses recorded over the 14 years [3] - Revenue has shown volatility, with a peak of 2.562 billion yuan in 2020 and a decline of 24.04% in 2024, resulting in revenue of 3.271 billion yuan [3] Group 2 - The company's market value has increased by 2.29 times since its listing, peaking at 19.845 billion yuan on June 19, 2023, with a stock price of 48.2 yuan [5] - As of August 4, 2023, the stock price dropped to 26.53 yuan, leading to a market value of 11.08 billion yuan, representing a decrease of 8.766 billion yuan and a market value evaporation of 44.17% from its peak [5]

Core Viewpoint - Yaoji Technology, known as "the first poker stock," is facing a share reduction by its controlling shareholder, which may indicate liquidity needs and could impact investor sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Shareholder Actions - The controlling shareholder, Yao Shuaobin, and four other associated parties plan to reduce their holdings by up to 12.52 million shares, representing 3% of the total share capital [1]. - The reduction will occur through both centralized bidding and block trading, with a maximum of 1% and 2% of the total share capital being sold through these methods, respectively [1]. - As of the announcement, Yao Shuaobin and associated parties hold 206.9 million shares, accounting for 49.63% of the total share capital [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Yaoji Technology's revenue has seen significant growth from 980 million yuan in 2018 to 4.307 billion yuan in 2023, but there was a notable decline in revenue in 2023 [3]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is reported at 3.271 billion yuan, a decrease of over 1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 24.04% [3]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to all three main business segments, with digital marketing experiencing the most significant drop of 40.25% [3]. Group 3: Profitability Trends - The net profit of Yaoji Technology peaked at 1.093 billion yuan in 2020 but has been on a downward trend since, with net profits of 547 million yuan in 2021 and 349 million yuan in 2022 [4]. - In 2023, the net profit slightly rebounded to 539 million yuan, but it still represented a year-on-year decrease of 4.17% [4]. - The first quarter of the current year shows continued declines in both revenue and net profit, with revenue at 779 million yuan, down 20.67%, and net profit at 141 million yuan, down 6.70% [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within the next six months [7][14]. Core Insights - The company's gaming and marketing businesses are under short-term pressure, while the poker business remains stable. The report highlights a significant decline in revenue across various segments, with total revenue for 2024 at 3.271 billion yuan, down 24.04% year-on-year [4][5]. - The company is focusing on developing short drama filming and enhancing its "content + base" strategy, with the establishment of the Shanghai International Short Video Center aimed at meeting diverse filming needs [6]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 3.271 billion yuan, with a net profit of 539 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.17% [4][10]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 3.376 billion yuan, 3.584 billion yuan, and 3.854 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 547 million yuan, 627 million yuan, and 742 million yuan [7][10]. - The company's gross margin improved to 43.44%, up 5.81 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in the proportion of low-margin marketing business [5][10].