南财智讯1月27日电，海新能科发布年度业绩预告，预计2025年全年归属于上市公司股东的净利润 为-45,000万元至-64,000万元，即净亏损4.50亿元—6.40亿元；预计2025年全年归属于上市公司股东的扣 除非经常性损益的净利润为-77,000万元至-54,000万元。报告期内，全球绿色能源政策环境持续向好。 欧盟及英国生物航煤（SAF）常态化添加政策正式实施，中国、日本、韩国等主要经济体的绿色转型路 径也日益明确，显著推动了全球生物能源市场需求增长。公司于2025年10月成功获批SAF产品出口"白 名单"，并顺利实现SAF产品出口，标志着公司发展战略取得新突破。公司控股子公司山东三聚生物能 源有限公司异构化装置持续保持高负荷平稳运行。受益于产品价格上涨和产能释放，报告期内公司生物 能源板块营业收入相比2024年增加约5.8亿元，同比增长约46%；毛利增加约2.7亿元，实现扭亏为盈， 经营效益显著提升（最终以2025年年度报告为准）。报告期内，公司环保材料及化工产品业务面临挑 战。受石油炼化及煤化工产业周期性调整影响，国内催化剂净化剂业务市场环境承压；同时，煤气清洁 利用（LNG）及新戊二醇行业阶段性 ...

海新能科公告，预计2025年度归属于上市公司股东的净利润为-6.4亿元至-4.5亿元，同比减亏。报告期 内，公司环保材料及化工产品业务面临挑战。受石油炼化及煤化工产业周期性调整影响，国内催化剂净 化剂业务市场环境承压；同时，煤气清洁利用（LNG）及新戊二醇行业阶段性产能扩张快于需求增 长，供需失衡加剧行业竞争。在上述因素综合影响下，该业务板块营业收入及净利润同比出现下滑。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Shenjian Co., Ltd. (002361), a commercial aerospace concept stock, has experienced significant price volatility, leading to a warning about potential rapid declines in the future due to high speculation risks [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Risks - Shenjian Co., Ltd. announced that its stock price has significantly deviated from the market and industry indices, indicating a high level of speculative trading [1]. - The company has experienced eight consecutive trading limit increases, which has raised concerns about the sustainability of its stock price [1]. - The announcement highlights that the current stock price is severely misaligned with the company's fundamental performance, suggesting a risk of rapid price correction [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the third quarter of 2025, the company's reported revenue was 1,833.80 million yuan, with aerospace business revenue contributing 139.18 million yuan, accounting for 7.59% of total revenue [1]. - The revenue from the commercial aerospace application sector was only 3.71 million yuan, representing a mere 0.20% of the total operating revenue [1]. - The company emphasizes the small proportion of revenue generated from the commercial aerospace sector, urging investors to be cautious about investment risks [1]. Group 3: Business Operations - Shenjian Co., Ltd. provides high-end equipment manufacturing services primarily to the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, including products such as satellite antennas and drone components [4]. - The company is involved in the production of various aerospace-related products, including aircraft radar covers and satellite composite material components [1][4].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Shenjian Co., a commercial aerospace concept stock, has experienced significant price volatility, leading to a warning about potential rapid declines in the future due to high speculation risks [2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Shenjian Co. has two main business segments: chemical new materials and high-end equipment manufacturing, focusing on the research, production, and sales of polyester resin products and high-end equipment manufacturing systems [5]. - The company has an annual production capacity of 220,000 tons for various polyester resins, offering over 100 products across indoor, outdoor, and PU polyester series [5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - As of the third quarter of 2025, Shenjian Co. reported total revenue of CNY 183,380.36 million, with aerospace business revenue at CNY 13,918.39 million, accounting for 7.59% of total revenue [2]. - The revenue from the commercial aerospace application sector is CNY 371.24 million, representing only 0.20% of the total operating revenue [2]. Group 3: Market Activity - Shenjian Co.'s stock has shown significant trading activity, with a recent closing price of CNY 13.17 and a peak of CNY 14.49, reflecting a market capitalization of CNY 137.80 billion [6]. - The stock has a high price-to-earnings ratio, with a dynamic P/E ratio of 340.88 and a trailing P/E ratio of 396.39, indicating high market expectations [6].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic chemical market is expected to face an oversupply in 2025, with prices of various chemical products hitting new lows in November, indicating a weak market driven primarily by macroeconomic factors rather than crude oil prices [1][8]. Market Trends - The chemical market experienced fluctuations from January to March, with a peak in January followed by a decline due to geopolitical tensions and tariff impacts, leading to a low opening after the Spring Festival [3][4]. - In the second quarter, the market was heavily influenced by U.S. tariffs and trade tensions, resulting in significant volatility, with a brief recovery in June due to positive trade negotiations [5]. - The third quarter saw a weak overall market, but a slight recovery was noted due to domestic supply-side reforms and the elimination of outdated production capacity [7]. - The fourth quarter continued to reflect weak demand against high supply, with a notable decline in prices across multiple chemical products, although a slight rebound was expected towards the end of December [8]. Price Movements - As of November 18, 2025, 116 out of 131 monitored chemical products had decreased in price since the beginning of the year, representing 89% of the total, while only 15 products saw price increases [8]. - The leading price increase was observed in the sulfur market, with a rise of 2,420 yuan/ton (+156.13%), while products like SEBS and butadiene experienced significant declines of -26.44% and -39.69%, respectively [9]. Profitability - Most chemical products are operating at marginal or negative profit margins, with many experiencing increased losses compared to the beginning of the year, indicating a challenging operational environment for chemical companies [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing deindustrialization in Germany, drawing parallels to the historical Morgenthau Plan, highlighting the struggles of German companies like BASF and the broader implications for the German economy [1][11]. Group 1: BASF's Situation - BASF has been facing significant losses at its Ludwigshafen site, with billions of euros in deficits, while simultaneously investing in its integrated site in Zhanjiang, China, which is set to begin production by the end of 2025 with a total investment of approximately €10 billion [1]. - The new production facility for neopentyl glycol at the Zhanjiang site has an annual capacity of 80,000 tons, increasing BASF's global capacity from 255,000 tons to 335,000 tons [3]. - The integrated production model used in Zhanjiang mirrors the successful approach from Ludwigshafen, focusing on cost reduction and efficiency [3]. Group 2: Economic Challenges in Germany - The rising energy costs, particularly due to the cessation of Russian gas supplies, have significantly impacted German chemical companies, leading to a projected 25% to 30% increase in corporate bankruptcies by 2025 [5]. - A report from Creditreform indicates that the number of bankruptcies in Germany could reach a ten-year high in 2024, with an increase of 24.3%, totaling around 22,400 companies [5]. - The automotive sector is particularly hard-hit, with Volkswagen planning to cut over 700,000 units of production and Bosch announcing a reduction of approximately 22,000 jobs in Germany [7]. Group 3: Factors Driving Companies Abroad - German companies are relocating not just for cost reduction but also due to market factors, as China offers a complete industrial chain and a vast consumer market, significantly lowering logistics costs [9]. - The German government's energy policy failures, high labor costs, bureaucratic challenges, and burdens from the "green transition" have deteriorated the business environment in Germany [9]. - In contrast, China provides stable energy supplies, efficient government services, and robust infrastructure, making it an attractive destination for investment [9]. Group 4: Long-term Implications - BASF's commitment to using 100% renewable energy at its Zhanjiang site by 2025 reflects a long-term strategy in the Chinese market, indicating a shift in investment focus [11]. - The situation in Germany serves as a warning to other countries about the importance of maintaining a strong manufacturing base and stable industrial policies [11][13]. - The global shift in industrial dynamics emphasizes the necessity of complete supply chains, stable energy supplies, and favorable business environments for sustaining manufacturing advantages [13][14].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 34.771 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.73%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.755 billion yuan, up 1.69% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the company experienced a revenue of 11.311 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.15% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.011 billion yuan, down 38.21% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 20.71%, a decline of 1.39 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to maintenance in the ethane phase II and a downturn in acrylic acid market conditions [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company’s Q3 2025 revenue was 11.311 billion yuan, reflecting a 12.15% decline year-on-year, while the net profit was 1.011 billion yuan, down 38.21% year-on-year [1] - The adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 1.342 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.63% year-on-year, but slightly exceeded expectations due to fair value changes from rising silver catalyst prices [1] Cost and Margin Insights - The average price of ethane in the U.S. for Q3 was $172 per ton, a decrease of $7 per ton from the previous quarter, while the procurement cost was estimated at $174 per ton, down $27 per ton [2] - The ethylene price increased by $29 per ton in Q3, leading to an expanded ethane-to-ethylene price spread, which increased by $38 per ton [2] Product Performance and Market Conditions - The profitability of the company's acrylic acid products declined due to increased supply and decreased demand in Q3, with price spreads for propane to propylene and acrylic acid showing mixed results [3] - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in the C3 sector's profitability due to reduced new capacity in propylene and supportive policies [3] Future Growth and Project Developments - The company expects to gradually realize production capacity for various new materials starting in Q4 2025, which will enhance performance [4] - The α-olefin comprehensive utilization high-end new materials industrial park project is crucial for future growth, with phase three expected to be operational by the end of 2026 [4] - Recent discussions between China and the U.S. regarding trade may lead to a gradual easing of tensions, potentially benefiting the company's valuation [4] Investment Outlook - Due to product market downturns and delays in new material projects, the company has revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027 down to 5.4 billion, 7.1 billion, and 8.9 billion yuan respectively [4] - The corresponding PE valuations are adjusted to 11X, 9X, and 7X, while maintaining a "buy" rating [4]

Core Insights - The successful shipment of core equipment for the NPG project marks a significant milestone for the company in the Indonesian market [1][2] - The project utilizes a fully localized process technology with a 100% domestic material rate, showcasing China's advanced chemical technology and high-end equipment going global [1] Group 1 - The NPG project has a capacity of 30,000 tons per year and is the seventh EPC project undertaken by the company in Indonesia [1] - The project team faced challenges such as tight schedules and transportation difficulties, which were addressed through careful planning and integration of equipment from eight suppliers, totaling approximately 4,500 tons [1] - Innovative logistics strategies were employed, including a framework bidding model and direct land transport solutions, which reduced booking difficulties and overall logistics costs [1] Group 2 - The successful shipment propels the project into a peak phase of equipment delivery, laying a foundation for subsequent construction [2] - The project team aims to enhance the "China Chemical" brand's influence in the international market through localized management and rich engineering experience [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant price increases in chloromethane and isooctyl acrylate, suggesting a focus on new materials with substantial market potential [1]. - It recommends attention to Jiangshan Co., which is expected to benefit from rising glyphosate prices and has promising developments in innovative drugs [5]. - The DVA market is noted for its vast potential, with Daon Co. making key advancements in DVA products [5]. Industry Performance - In the third week of September, the chemical sector (Shenwan) declined by 1.33%, slightly underperforming the Shanghai A-share index, which fell by 1.31% [2][13]. - The dynamic PE for the chemical sector stands at 22.54 times, above the average PE of 12.20 times since 2015 [2][13]. Sub-industry Trends - Among the 31 sub-industries, 8 experienced gains while 23 saw declines. The top five gaining sub-industries included civil explosives (+7.72%) and modified plastics (+7.67%), while the top five declining sub-industries included carbon black (-5.25%) and other chemical raw materials (-4.74%) [3][17]. Chemical Prices and Spreads - The report lists the top five products with the highest weekly price increases: liquid chlorine (+22.93%), monochloromethane (+19.44%), and isooctyl acrylate (+7.47%) [4][22]. - The report also details the top five products with the largest price spread increases, including aniline spread (+17.56%) and ethylene spread (+13.17%) [4][34]. Inventory Changes - Significant inventory changes were noted, with ethylene glycol increasing by 25.67% and polyester chips by 11.98%, while epoxy propane saw a decrease of 10.44% [5][52].

Core Viewpoint - Satellite Chemical aims to become a world-class chemical new materials technology company, focusing on enhancing its industrial chain competitiveness and avoiding "involution" competition [1] Group 1: Company Strategy - The company is centered around creating market-competitive products, emphasizing "management leadership" and "technology leadership" [1] - It leverages its industrial chain advantages, controls core catalyst technologies, and masters proprietary production processes to develop differentiated products tailored to customer needs [1] Group 2: Product Development - In 2023, the company launched new chemical products such as neopentyl glycol and a series of new polymer product models along with domestically produced alternative additives [1] - The company is committed to providing comprehensive solutions centered around customer needs [1]