格隆汇12月16日｜爱建证券研报指出，上汽集团拥有完整的汽车产业链和丰富的品牌矩阵，整车业务包 括上汽乘用车（荣威、飞凡、智己等）、上汽大众、上汽通用、上汽五菱、大通等，零部件业务为集团 内各品牌提供支持。公司重组大乘用车板块，整合荣威和飞凡品牌，提升运营效率和资源协同；同时， 与华为深度合作推出全新品牌"尚界"，切入15-20万主流智能电动车市场，借鉴消费电子企业经验，提 升产品力与用户体验；此外，公司加速推进固态电池等前沿技术产业化。预计公司改革成效将逐步显 现，经营表现有望逐步回升。尚界、智己等自主品牌核心车型上市后月销快速攀升稳定过万；合资品牌 上汽大众及上汽通用月销同比增速稳定回正；出口及海外基地销量持续稳定正增长。公司估值低于可比 公司均值，考虑公司自上而下积极推动电动智能化转型，并加强对外合作，首次覆盖，给予"买入"评 级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Insights - The company is undergoing a significant transformation towards electric and intelligent vehicles, supported by a strategic partnership with Huawei, which is expected to enhance its product offerings and user experience [6]. - The company has a complete automotive industry chain and a diverse brand matrix, which positions it well in the competitive landscape of the automotive industry [6]. - Financial forecasts indicate a strong rebound in net profit from 2025 onwards, with expected profits of 10.75 billion, 13.34 billion, and 16.15 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 744.71 billion yuan - 2024: 627.59 billion yuan (down 15.7% YoY) - 2025E: 668.57 billion yuan (up 6.5% YoY) - 2026E: 697.79 billion yuan (up 4.4% YoY) - 2027E: 746.77 billion yuan (up 7.0% YoY) [5][17] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 14.11 billion yuan - 2024: 1.67 billion yuan (down 88.2% YoY) - 2025E: 10.75 billion yuan (up 545.2% YoY) - 2026E: 13.34 billion yuan (up 24.1% YoY) - 2027E: 16.15 billion yuan (up 21.1% YoY) [5][17] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 1.7% in 2023 to 11.1% by 2027 [5][17]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company ranks second in cumulative automobile sales in China for the first ten months of 2025, with a market share of 12.8% [7]. - The automotive industry is experiencing intensified competition, particularly as domestic brands rise and joint ventures face pressure [6]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is restructuring its passenger vehicle segment to enhance operational efficiency and resource synergy [6]. - The collaboration with Huawei aims to penetrate the mainstream intelligent electric vehicle market, leveraging Huawei's technological expertise [6].

曹开阳 台历翻到12月15日，2025年已只剩下半个月，留给中国车企冲刺年度任务的时间不多了。综合中国汽车 工业协会及上市车企发布的今年前11月统计数据可见，共有三家车企年度任务完成率已超过90%，它们 是：吉利以销售278.8万辆，年度任务完成率93%排名榜首；比亚迪、上汽分别销售418.2万辆、410.8万 辆，年度任务完成率均为91%，并列第二。 考虑到历年12月均为中国车市销售旺季，因此上述三家车企完成全年业绩目标几乎已板上钉钉。那么， 这些车企究竟又是凭啥可以在年度任务完成率上领跑呢？ 吉利能在前11个月过后成为年度任务考核最优秀者，笔者认为并不意外，这也是吉利车型在今年成就多 个爆款的生动写照，其中既有曾多次在新能源轿车月销榜夺冠的入门级家轿吉利星愿，也有被公认颜值 与实力双双在线的银河星耀8系列，更有其重磅推出的银河M9，将"9"字头大六座SUV的价格首次拉入 20万元以下区间，且配置和实力都可圈可点。或许可以说，吉利能圆满完成年度任务，是其旗下车型的 全面开花与爆款产品精准突破的合力所致。 比亚迪虽然在年度任务完成率上暂时只名列第二，但总销量明显更高是不争的事实。笔者认为，比亚迪 能在截至11 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that SAIC Motor Corporation has been a leading player in the automotive industry, with a strong focus on electric and intelligent transformation amid a challenging market environment [5][6][7] - The company has faced significant pressure in its joint venture segments, with declining sales and profitability, while its independent brands are experiencing mixed results [6][33] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support and management changes in driving the company's transformation efforts [7][48] Company Overview - SAIC Motor Corporation, established in 1955, has evolved into a major automotive enterprise with a diverse product matrix, including passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, and parts [5][13] - The company achieved sales of 5.303 million vehicles in 2022, maintaining its position as the top seller in China for 17 consecutive years [5][13] - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission as the controlling shareholder [17] Financial Analysis - The company's revenue for 2023 was approximately 744.7 billion yuan, with a projected decline in net profit for 2024 due to market challenges [20][9] - The report forecasts revenues of 654.9 billion, 683.1 billion, and 720.3 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits expected to recover significantly by 2026 [8][9] - The company's profitability has been under pressure, with a decline in gross margin and return on equity (ROE) over recent years [21][20] Industry Context - The automotive market in China is undergoing a significant transformation, with a notable rise in the market share of independent brands, particularly in the electric vehicle segment [25][26] - The report indicates that traditional joint venture brands are losing market share due to slower adaptation to electric and intelligent vehicle trends [26][28] - The overall automotive market is expected to grow, with total vehicle sales projected to reach 31.436 million units in 2024, reflecting a 4.5% year-on-year increase [25][26] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing partnerships, such as its collaboration with Huawei to enhance its technological capabilities in smart driving [7][48] - Management changes have been implemented to inject new energy into the company's transformation efforts, aligning with government support for high-quality development [7][48] - The report highlights the importance of integrating brands and upgrading technological foundations to enhance competitiveness in the evolving market landscape [7][48]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that SAIC Motor Corporation has been a leading player in the automotive industry, with a strong focus on electric and intelligent transformation amid a challenging market environment [5][6][7] - The company has faced significant pressure in its joint venture segments, with declining sales and profitability, while its independent brands are experiencing mixed results [6][33] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support and management changes in driving the company's transformation efforts [7][48] Summary by Sections Company Overview - SAIC Motor Corporation, established in 1955, has evolved into a major automotive enterprise with a diverse product matrix, including joint ventures with global brands and its own brands like Roewe and Baojun [5][13] - The company achieved sales of 5.303 million vehicles in 2022, maintaining its position as the top seller in China for 17 consecutive years [5][13] Industry Analysis - The Chinese automotive market is undergoing a significant transformation, with a rapid increase in the penetration of new energy vehicles (NEVs) and a decline in market share for traditional joint venture brands [6][25][26] - In 2024, the market share of mainstream joint venture brands is projected to drop to 27.5%, down from 51.4% in 2019, reflecting the challenges faced by these companies in adapting to the new market dynamics [6][26] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2023 was approximately 744.7 billion yuan, with a forecasted decline in net profit for 2024, expected to be between 1.5 billion to 1.9 billion yuan, marking a significant drop from previous years [20][21] - The report indicates a rising cost structure, with the operating expense ratio increasing from 9.5% in 2021 to 10.8% in the first three quarters of 2024, impacting overall profitability [21] Transformation and Future Outlook - The company is actively pursuing a transformation strategy supported by government policies, with a focus on enhancing its electric and intelligent vehicle offerings [7][48] - A partnership with Huawei aims to leverage technological advancements in smart driving capabilities, which is expected to enhance the company's competitive position in the market [7][48]