【 】 国泰海通证券 证券研究报告 2026年乘用车: 以高端、出海为矛破局 2026/ 02/28 行业评级: 增持 姓名：刘一鸣 (首席分析师) 邮箱：liuyiming@gtht.com 电话:15216799596 证书编号: S0880525040050 姓名:张觉尹 (分析师) 电话：19945659915 姓名： 潘若婵 (分析师) 邮箱: zhangjueyin@gtht.com 邮箱: panruochan@gtht.com 一电话:17278286860 证书编号：S0880525040057 证书编号：S0880525110006 01 02 03 04 2 2025年乘用车市场分析 请参阅附注免责声明 3 / 总量： 2025年乘用车内需与出口稳健增长 01 2025年，国内乘用车批发销量达2379.7万辆，同比+6%，在政策支持与消费复苏驱动下保持韧性增长。 2025年，中国实现乘用车出口573.1万辆，同比+21%，受益于自主品牌加速海外市场扩张与国产新能源车竞争力提升。 图: 乘用车国内批发销量（万辆） 300 238 240 227 250 202 201 198 172 22 ...

近日，在由中央广播电视总台主办、总台财经节目中心特别策划的第六届《汽车风云盛典》颁奖盛典上，奥迪 E5 Sportback凭借产品卓越的综合实 力，一举摘得"风云2025轿车"大奖。此前，它已接连斩获"中国年度车"和"微博年度车型"两项殊荣。至此，奥迪 E5 Sportback已获得官方媒体、行业专家 与消费者三大维度权威认可，达成"三冠王"佳绩，彰显了上汽奥迪在电动化转型浪潮中，以创新科技赋能豪华出行的深厚积淀与前瞻视野。 上汽大众汽车有限公司党委书记、总经理陶海龙出席颁奖盛典并发表获奖感言："奥迪 E5 Sportback就是这样一款融合德系豪华工艺及中国智慧'美美 与共'的产品。我相信，这份源自中国市场的创新实践与用户洞察，也将反哺奥迪的全球智能电动化发展。" 作为中国汽车行业权威盛事，《汽车风云盛典》始终以严谨评选机制、高规格行业视角与全维度测评标准，遴选实力标杆车型。奥迪 E5 Sportback获 此殊荣，正是对于其卓越产品力的最佳认证：奥迪经典猎装轿跑造型与独创的"星钻光幕"设计，尽显未来美学。前后永磁同步双电机与纯电quattro智能四 驱系统，赋予车辆极致纯粹的操控表现。智能层面，E5 Sp ...

Core Insights - FAW Toyota achieved an annual sales record of 805,500 units in 2025, marking three consecutive years of growth, positioning itself as one of the few mainstream joint venture brands to maintain growth amidst market challenges [1] - The company faces pressures from declining sales in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a continuous drop in sales volume and narrowing profit margins due to price wars and underperformance in the pure electric vehicle market [1][2] Sales Performance - High-end models and hybrid vehicles emerged as the two main growth drivers, with sales of high-end models reaching 487,400 units, a 12% increase year-on-year, and smart hybrid models selling 380,100 units, up 14% [2] - However, sales in the fourth quarter showed a concerning trend, with October sales at 71,309 units (down 6% year-on-year), November at 71,112 units (down 20.9%), and December further declining by 22.2% [2] Profitability Challenges - Despite an increase in operating profit for Toyota's business in China to 67.1 billion yen, FAW Toyota's profit per vehicle has been shrinking due to significant discounts and production adjustments [3] Electric Vehicle Transition - FAW Toyota's strategy of "oil-electric co-prosperity" aims to strengthen its hybrid technology while accelerating the development of pure electric vehicles, but there is a stark contrast between the strong performance of hybrid models and the underwhelming results of electric models [4] - The core electric models, bZ3 and bZ5, had disappointing sales figures of 22,606 units and 12,674 units respectively, highlighting a growing gap in electric vehicle development compared to competitors [4][5] Localization Efforts - To address the challenges of local adaptation in the electric vehicle transition, FAW Toyota relocated its sales headquarters from Beijing to Tianjin, aiming to enhance integration of sales, research, and production [6] - The company is also focusing on quality control, as evidenced by a recall of 10,922 RAV4 vehicles due to software issues, indicating the need for improved stability in smart cockpit systems [6] Future Outlook - The effectiveness of the new integrated system post-relocation remains to be fully realized, and the ability to convert local R&D capabilities into competitive electric vehicle products will be crucial for FAW Toyota's market position in the era of smart electrification [7]

Core Insights - FAW Toyota achieved an annual sales record of 805,500 units in 2025, marking three consecutive years of growth, with nearly half of the sales coming from intelligent hybrid models and a steady increase in high-end vehicle sales [1] - Despite the positive sales figures, concerns are emerging as fourth-quarter sales showed a continuous decline, with significant drops in October, November, and December [2] - The company faces pressure on profitability due to a price war affecting terminal sales and a disappointing performance in the pure electric vehicle market [1][2] Sales Performance - In 2025, FAW Toyota's high-end and hybrid models were the main growth drivers, with high-end models selling 487,400 units (up 12%) and intelligent hybrid models selling 380,100 units (up 14%) [1] - However, fourth-quarter sales revealed a troubling trend, with October sales at 71,309 units (down 6%), November at 71,112 units (down 20.9%), and December further declining by 22.2% [2] Profitability Challenges - The company has been forced to implement significant price adjustments on core models, with discounts reaching up to 38,000 yuan for Corolla and over 50,000 yuan for RAV4 [2] - FAW Toyota's operating profit in China for the second fiscal quarter of 2026 was 67.1 billion yen, showing growth attributed to GAC Toyota's strong performance in hybrid and electric sectors [2] Electric Vehicle Transition - FAW Toyota's hybrid technology remains a core competitive advantage, with nearly 30 years of R&D experience and a strong safety record in electric vehicle batteries [3] - However, the performance of pure electric models like bZ3 and bZ5 has been underwhelming, with bZ3 selling 22,606 units and bZ5 only 12,674 units in 2025, highlighting a growing gap with competitors [3] Localization Efforts - In 2025, FAW Toyota relocated its sales headquarters from Beijing to Tianjin to enhance integration of sales, R&D, and production, aiming to respond more effectively to market demands [4] - The company is also focusing on quality control, as evidenced by a recall of 10,922 RAV4 vehicles due to software issues, indicating the need for improved stability in intelligent cockpit systems [4] Industry Perspective - Industry experts view FAW Toyota's situation as reflective of traditional joint venture brands' challenges in transitioning to intelligent electric vehicles, emphasizing the need for faster product iteration and market adaptation [5] - The effectiveness of the new integrated system post-relocation will be crucial for transforming local R&D capabilities into competitive electric vehicle products [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects steady revenue growth in 2025, with projected revenue between 28.75 billion to 30.35 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.1% to 14.1%, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline by 3.4% to 13.4% [3] Group 1: Revenue Growth and Profitability - The median revenue for 2025 is projected at 29.55 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.1% year-on-year growth, with Q4 revenue expected to be between 7.82 billion to 9.42 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 7.9% to 30.0% [4] - The decline in net profit is attributed to raw material price fluctuations and intensified market competition, leading to a decrease in gross margin, compounded by the complexities of the international situation [4] - The company is enhancing operational efficiency through large-scale procurement, smart manufacturing, and lean management, which helps to dilute R&D and operational costs [4] Group 2: Strategic Partnerships and Product Development - The company is strategically aligned with Tesla and emerging car manufacturers, aiming to penetrate the global supply chain, and has established stable partnerships with both international and domestic innovative car companies [5] - The company has developed eight product lines under the Tier 0.5 model, enhancing the value of single vehicle components, with a total value of approximately 30,000 yuan per vehicle [5] Group 3: Robotics and AI Applications - The company is actively expanding into robotics and AI applications, with a focus on products such as robotic actuators, sensors, and thermal management systems, and has secured orders worth 1.5 billion yuan as of June 30, 2025 [6] - Planned investments include 5 billion yuan for a robotics electric drive system production base and up to 300 million USD for a production base in Thailand, with expected completion by the end of 2025 [6] Group 4: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 29.55 billion, 35.88 billion, and 42.84 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 2.76 billion, 3.4 billion, and 4.26 billion yuan [7] - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.59, 1.96, and 2.45 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 45, 37, and 29 [8]

Core Insights - SAIC Motor Corporation achieved significant sales growth in January, with wholesale vehicle sales reaching 327,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 23.9%, and retail sales hitting 363,000 units, leading the domestic automotive industry [1][2] - The company is the only automaker in China to surpass 300,000 units in sales for January, indicating a strong start to 2026 and confirming the success of its strategic transformation [1][2] Sales Performance - The sales data for January shows that SAIC's self-owned brands and new energy vehicles are the main drivers of growth, with self-owned brands accounting for 65.3% of total sales, a 7.3 percentage point increase from the same period in 2025 [5][7] - New energy vehicle sales reached 85,000 units, marking a 39.7% year-on-year increase, solidifying SAIC's position in the top tier of the industry [5][7] Strategic Initiatives - SAIC has been focusing on a multi-faceted strategy that includes deepening reforms, technological innovation, cross-industry collaboration, and overseas operations, which has led to a clear technical label for its vehicle matrix [1][8] - The company has invested over 180 billion yuan since 2021 in emerging sectors like AI and high-end manufacturing, fostering a collaborative ecosystem that enhances its core automotive business [12][10] Product Development - SAIC's MG brand has seen significant success, with the MG4 model achieving sales of over 10,000 units monthly, supported by advanced technologies like semi-solid batteries and integrated battery chassis [8][10] - Upcoming models include the LS9 Hyper from the high-end brand Zhiji, which features industry-first four-wheel steering technology, aiming to set new benchmarks in vehicle handling [12][13] Market Expansion - The overseas market has shown robust growth, with January sales exceeding 105,000 units, a year-on-year increase of over 50%, particularly in Europe where the MG brand has maintained its position as the top-selling Chinese brand for eleven consecutive years [7][8] - SAIC's "Glocal" strategy emphasizes transitioning from merely exporting products to exporting value chains, enhancing its global competitiveness [7][8] Customer Engagement - SAIC is enhancing customer experience through initiatives like the "Understanding Cars Better" campaign, which offers comprehensive services across its brands, aiming to build long-term trust with customers [14][17]

01 打破"高端垄断"：中国汽车市场格局正在重写 长期以来，50万以上高端汽车市场被外资豪华品牌牢牢主导，形成坚固"铁幕"。中汽协数据显示，2020年中国50万 以上高端汽车市场中，外资品牌份额高达78%，自主品牌几乎难觅踪影。 而随着智能化转型加速，这一格局正在被彻底改写。据中汽协和弗若斯特沙利文数据，2024年自主品牌高端新能源 乘用车销量达150万辆，占国内高端新能源市场份额57.7%，较2021年提升32个百分点；弗若斯特沙利文预计，到 2027年这一份额将增至68.2%。 2月9日晚，深圳文华东方酒店星光熠熠，经济学家洪灏、得到APP创始人罗振宇、主持人马东、演员张馨予等数十 位名人车主与各领域精英车主代表，齐聚"问界M9星光之夜"。这场盛会，既是车主圈层的欢聚，更是观察高端汽车 消费趋势的重要窗口。 截至2026年1月，问界M9累计交付突破27万辆，累计21个月稳居50万级豪华市场销冠，斩获销量、NPS（净推荐 值）、保值率三项第一。这组数据绝非单一车型的偶然成功，而是中国高端汽车消费逻辑的根本性转变——从对外 资品牌的盲目崇拜转向对中国智造的价值认同，从执着机械性能转向兼顾智能体验与安全守护。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2]. Core Insights - The company has announced a share repurchase plan, demonstrating confidence in its strategic development and intrinsic value. The repurchase will utilize self-owned funds, with a total planned amount between 1 billion and 2 billion yuan, aimed at enhancing shareholder value [7]. - The company has achieved significant technological advancements, including the first L3 level autonomous driving license and the launch of new models equipped with advanced technology, reinforcing its competitive edge in the smart electric vehicle market [7]. - The company's global expansion strategy is yielding results, with operations in 117 countries and plans to introduce new models in the European market over the next three years, supported by local production capabilities [7]. Financial Forecast Summary - Projected revenue for 2024 is 159.73 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.6%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 233.54 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 11.5% [2][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 7.32 billion yuan in 2024, declining to 6.31 billion yuan in 2025, before rebounding to 10.94 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 34.1% [2][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.74 yuan in 2024, decreasing to 0.64 yuan in 2025, and then increasing to 1.10 yuan by 2027 [2][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Changan Automobile (000625.SZ) [2] Core Insights - The company's share buyback plan, with a total investment of no less than 1 billion and no more than 2 billion yuan, reflects its confidence in long-term development and financial stability [7] - Changan's technological advancements in autonomous driving and global expansion are expected to drive long-term growth [7] - The company aims to enhance shareholder value through capital reduction and improved earnings per share [7] Financial Forecast Summary - Projected revenue for 2024 is 159.73 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.6%, increasing to 233.54 billion yuan by 2027 with a growth rate of 11.5% [2][8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 7.32 billion yuan in 2024, declining to 6.31 billion yuan in 2025, before rising to 10.94 billion yuan by 2027 [2][8] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.74 yuan in 2024, decreasing to 0.64 yuan in 2025, and then increasing to 1.10 yuan by 2027 [2][8] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 15 in 2024, decreasing to 10 by 2027 [2][8] Strategic Developments - Changan has achieved significant milestones in autonomous driving technology, including obtaining the first batch of L3 level autonomous driving licenses [7] - The company is expanding its global footprint, with operations in 117 countries and plans to launch 8 new models in Europe over the next three years [7] - Collaborations with major partners like Huawei and CATL are enhancing Changan's technological capabilities and product offerings [7]

2026年2月4日晚间，长安汽车（000625）正式发布公告，宣布拟以10亿元至20亿元自有资金回购公司股份，其中A股回购金额不低于7亿元且不超过14 亿元，B股回购金额不低于3亿元且不超过6亿元。此次回购股份将全部用于减少公司注册资本，彰显了管理层对战略前景的坚定信心与对股东权益的深度守 护。 战略底气：新能源转型与全球化布局双轮驱动 根据最新披露的转型计划，长安汽车明确提出到2028年实现中国品牌累计销量4000万辆、2030年年产销目标500万辆，其中新能源占比60%，海外占比 35%，并跻身全球汽车品牌TOP10。这一战略蓝图背后，是其新能源持续突破，2025年销量达110.9万辆，同比增长51.1%；全球化布局提速，未来三年将投 放26款新品，覆盖140余个国家和地区。这种"技术+市场"双轮驱动的模式，为回购行动提供了坚实的业绩支撑。 市场信号：价值回归与股东利益深度绑定 本次回购发生于全球汽车产业向智能电动化深度转型的关键时期。长安汽车在公告中明确指出，此举是"基于对公司战略发展前景及内在价值的坚定信 心，积极维护公司价值及股东权益"。这也是植根于公司稳健经营基本面之上的长远考量，截至2025年三 ...