近期市场波动加剧，业内资深人士纷纷发声研判后市。今天的文章，我们主要就来看一看东方港湾但斌 最新在雪球嘉年华上的访谈观点。 周媛：现阶段您觉得基础层和应用层，还是基础层的确定性更高吗？什么时候更适合开始更多关注应用 层？ 在嘉年华中，但斌主要就AI的投资、AI发展趋势、泡沫情况、中美市场、白酒逻辑等市场关注话题及 公司发表观点。（当然，茅台方面，研究院有不同观点，下文具体说明） 对此，研究院做了一定整理，大家辨证参考。 以下为概括内容： 一、关于投资：AI领域注重确定性 主持人周媛：具体投资，现阶段选择AI标的会基于哪些考虑更多一些？比如确定性更高的标的、商业 模式，还是产业发展阶段？会从哪个角度去选择落地标的？ 但斌：就我过往职业生涯来说，我个人还是比较喜欢确定性。大家可以看到东方港湾海外基金每个季度 的13F文件披露。到上个季度，我们第一大持仓是英伟达，第二大是谷歌。 现在距离明年一季度还有十几天，明年1月中下旬大家会看到我们的持仓，应该还是以确定性为主的方 向。像特斯拉这种不确定性较高的，我们持仓比例可能还是和上季度差不多。但确定性的方向我们会更 侧重。 二、AI发展判断：明年将成AI应用大年 但斌：其 ...

千元的普五难以喝得尽兴， 今天 五粮液 带着它的感恩酒来炸场了！ 这瓶酒 把品牌底蕴浓缩成了一杯能喝到的诚意！ 喝过那么多所谓"好酒"，还得是它 ！ 白酒界的"浓香之冠"—— 「五粮液」 爱喝 "好酒" 的，想送"名酒"的，今天捡到大漏了！ 它就是来自 五粮液自家的"亲儿子" —— 【五粮液 ·感恩酒】亚克力礼盒 ◎ 宜宾五粮液 股份有限公司出品。 血脉纯正的 浓香型52°纯粮食白酒 。 ✅ 根正苗红！来自酒都宜宾的"五粮液亲儿子"！ 包装正面，也清清楚楚写着出品方： 宜宾 五粮液股份有限公司 ； 同时，酒瓶和酒盒上都一致标有 五粮液正宗出品的 W标。 突出五粮液品质同脉同源！ 绝不是市面上鱼龙混杂的 贴牌酒。 买回去 送长辈、招待贵宾、自己喝都可以，好喝又有面子！ ✅ 仅看品相，就是高档白酒的样子！ 懂得都懂，这是 五粮液千元普五的经典瓶型 ，不需要花里胡哨的装饰设计 ， 简 简 单 单 的 高 级 感。 开 瓶 便 能 闻 到 一 股 浓 郁 的 古 窖 香 ， 倒 入 杯 中 ， 酒 线 细 长 ， 不 断 不 散 ， 老 熟 稠 润 。 肉 眼 可 见 大 珠 小 珠 的 酒 花 像 珍 珠 一 样 ...

Core Insights - The essence of price control is a collective agreement among brands, distributors, and consumers, but it is fragile and can easily collapse if one party breaks the agreement [1][2] - The price of Moutai has significantly dropped from 2100 yuan to below 1700 yuan, indicating a breakdown in the pricing structure [1][5] - The cultural significance of Moutai as a social symbol is eroding, leading to a decline in its market value [6][10] Pricing Dynamics - Price control measures have been implemented by Moutai, including strict penalties for price violations and incentives for compliant sellers, but these efforts have proven ineffective [3][4] - The market is experiencing a downward spiral where falling prices lead to increased selling pressure, resulting in further price declines [5][14] Cultural Context - The consumption of Moutai has historically been tied to social status and power dynamics, but this cultural relevance is diminishing as younger generations reject traditional drinking customs [7][11][13] - The social function of Moutai as a means of establishing relationships and confirming social hierarchies is collapsing, leading to decreased demand [9][10][14] Investment Perspective - Moutai is losing its status as a reliable investment asset, as younger consumers prioritize liquidity and risk over traditional forms of investment [15][16] - The generational divide in investment attitudes is contributing to a decline in Moutai's perceived value, as younger individuals are less willing to invest in assets that lack immediate cash flow [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of the Chinese liquor industry, particularly focusing on the white liquor segment, which has seen a stagnation in market performance and a shift in consumer preferences away from traditional drinking habits [5][15]. Industry Analysis - The China Securities White Liquor Index has only increased by 10% since last September, indicating a lack of growth in the sector [5]. - Major brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye have seen their market capitalizations drop significantly, with Moutai now ranking as the sixth largest company in the CSI 300 Index [5]. - The cultural perception of white liquor has shifted, with many consumers questioning its relevance and appropriateness in modern drinking contexts [5][12]. Consumer Behavior - White liquor is primarily consumed in dining settings, which limits its appeal compared to other alcoholic beverages that are more versatile [12][13]. - The high alcohol content (typically around 53 degrees) and the tradition of consuming it in a "toasting" manner have contributed to its decline among younger consumers [7][9]. - The article suggests that the drinking culture surrounding white liquor is often seen as a "compliance test," which may deter younger generations from embracing it [13][14]. Market Trends - The article highlights a broader trend where lower-alcohol beverages like beer and wine are becoming more popular, overshadowing high-alcohol options like white liquor [14]. - The notion of a "white liquor bar" is presented as an unlikely business model, further emphasizing the beverage's limited appeal outside of traditional dining contexts [13]. Conclusion - The article concludes that the white liquor industry may be experiencing a necessary correction, moving away from its previous heights as consumer preferences evolve towards more diverse and lower-alcohol options [15].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Fenjiu Sealing Ceremony has commenced, emphasizing the themes of "Respect for Heaven, Love for People, Heritage, and Innovation," while celebrating the 110th anniversary of Fenjiu's gold medal at the Panama International Exposition [1] Group 1: Event Overview - The ceremony has been held ten times and has become a significant cultural IP within the industry, showcasing Fenjiu's commitment to producing quality liquor and preserving its heritage [1] - The event serves as a platform to promote the cultural confidence of Chinese liquor, particularly focusing on the "clear, pure, and righteous" quality of Fenjiu [1] Group 2: Themes and Cultural Significance - The 2025 ceremony introduces a new theme of "Innovation" alongside the existing themes, creating four thematic sections that reflect the spirit of Fenjiu culture [1] - The four themes are: - "Respect for Heaven," focusing on reverence for nature and gratitude for its gifts - "Love for People," highlighting the emotional connection and warmth in the liquor - "Heritage," emphasizing the continuity of skills and the enduring spirit - "Innovation," showcasing the determination to uphold traditions while pursuing future dreams [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, ZhiJiang Distillery, is experiencing steady growth in the Hubei region of China's liquor triangle, aiming for a 20% increase in core product sales, a 25% rise in the price per ton of liquor, and a 10% growth in core markets in 2024, establishing itself as a pillar of the Yangtze River famous liquor belt [1] Group 1: Cultural Heritage - ZhiJiang Distillery has a long cultural history dating back to its founding in 1817, known for its "Qian Tai Ji" distillery, and has received numerous accolades, including being recognized as a quality product by the Ministry of Light Industry in the 1980s and winning the Hubei Golden Bell Award in 1988 [3] Group 2: Geographic Advantage - The distillery is located in a prime area along the 30-degree north latitude, benefiting from a favorable climate, rich vegetation, and unique water and soil conditions, which contribute to the exceptional quality of its liquor [4] Group 3: Strong Capabilities - With eight generations of heritage, ZhiJiang Distillery boasts over 10 billion yuan in fixed assets and brand value, along with significant production capacity, including five brewing workshops and over 30,000 large ceramic storage tanks [5] Group 4: Quality Assurance - The company adheres to strict quality standards in its production process, utilizing high-quality raw materials and traditional techniques to create a unique flavor profile characterized by clarity, rich aroma, and a smooth finish [7] Group 5: Diverse Flavor Profiles - ZhiJiang Distillery produces a variety of liquor types, including strong aroma, sauce aroma, and light aroma, and has developed a unique "soft elegance" style that caters to consumer preferences [8] Group 6: Technical Strength - The company has established strategic partnerships with various academic institutions and has set up multiple research centers, achieving 120 patents, which enhances its technological capabilities in liquor production [9] Group 7: Future Outlook - Leveraging its six core advantages, ZhiJiang Distillery is poised to continue its growth trajectory and achieve greater success in the liquor market [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of time and craftsmanship in the design and production of high-quality liquor, particularly focusing on the ancient techniques and cultural heritage of the Gu Beichun brand [1][15]. Group 1: Company Achievements and Recognition - Gu Beichun has received numerous awards for its liquor design, including the 2025 Qilu Baijiu Liquor Design Gold Award for its 52-degree crystal white version [1]. - The company maintains over 10,000 jars of aged original liquor, with some stored for up to 40 years, showcasing its commitment to quality and tradition [3]. Group 2: Craftsmanship and Techniques - The company employs a meticulous approach to liquor design, emphasizing comfort and health in its products, such as low alcohol content for a smoother experience [5]. - The aging process and traditional brewing techniques are highlighted as essential to the quality of Gu Beichun's products, with a focus on ecological and sustainable practices [8][12]. Group 3: Cultural Significance and Brand Strategy - Gu Beichun integrates cultural elements into its branding, aiming to provide consumers with a deeper connection to the product through historical narratives and cultural heritage [15][17]. - The company adopts a long-term strategic approach, balancing quick market responses with slow, steady brand and quality development, as articulated by its management [18].

Group 1: Core Insights - The event "Cultural Leadership and Innovative Change" organized by Li Du Distillery highlights the importance of cultural heritage in the development of the liquor industry amidst deep adjustments [1] - Li Du's ancient brewing site, recognized as a national treasure, showcases the evolution of brewing techniques from the Yuan, Ming, and Qing dynasties, enhancing its cultural significance [3] - The integration of cultural storytelling and innovative tourism experiences is crucial for Li Du to connect with consumers and expand its market presence [5] Group 2: Technological Innovation - Li Du Distillery utilizes ancient brewing techniques and modern technology to create unique products, achieving a distinctive flavor profile described as "one sip, four fragrances" [6] - Collaborations with universities for research on ancient microbial brewing techniques and the establishment of a smart brewing facility demonstrate Li Du's commitment to technological advancement [8] - The implementation of AI technology in management, production, flavor science, and marketing aims to enhance product quality and consumer experience [10] Group 3: Market Positioning and Branding - Li Du's marketing strategies, including the launch of new products and innovative experiential centers, have positioned it as a leader in the competitive liquor market [11] - The brand's engagement with new media and interactive marketing campaigns has significantly increased its visibility and consumer engagement [13] - The focus on storytelling and cultural heritage is seen as a way to differentiate Li Du in a challenging economic environment, fostering a new growth logic for the industry [13]

Core Viewpoint - Wuliangye is actively promoting the creative transformation and innovative development of traditional Chinese culture, enhancing its brand image and contributing to the high-quality development of the liquor industry [3][4]. Group 1: Cultural Heritage and Innovation - Wuliangye is committed to cultural confidence and has developed a unique high-quality development path by systematically organizing its historical heritage and innovating cultural expressions [3]. - The "Wuliangye Cultural Genealogy Report" was released, providing a comprehensive study of the company's cultural lineage, highlighting its historical significance and cultural philosophy [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the natural and human heritage associated with Wuliangye, including ancient brewing techniques and historical brewing sites [3]. Group 2: Cultural Resource Activation - Wuliangye aims to transform cultural resources into industrial advantages through "living inheritance" and innovative cultural expressions [4]. - The 501 workshop, a historical brewing site, serves as a model for integrating cultural resources into industrial value, showcasing sustainable cultural and brewing practices [4]. - The Wuliangye 501 Ancient Cellar Cultural Heritage Project is under construction, aiming to create an immersive experience for visitors and enhance the cultural significance of the brand [4]. Group 3: Youth Engagement and Market Trends - Wuliangye has opened its first trendy experience store, "Wuliang·ZhiZao," targeting younger consumers with innovative designs and cultural experiences [4]. - The store has quickly become a popular social spot for young people, reflecting the brand's efforts to modernize and appeal to new demographics [4]. - The company plans to replicate this model in other cities based on market feedback, furthering its brand's youthfulness and trendiness [4]. Group 4: Cultural and Industrial Integration - Wuliangye is developing a comprehensive cultural tourism ecosystem by integrating liquor production with tourism and cultural creativity [4]. - During the recent holiday, the Wuliangye scenic area received 127,000 visitors, a 58.75% increase year-on-year, due to innovative experiential projects [4]. - The integration of cultural tourism has significantly boosted the brand's value and recognition, contributing to the development of surrounding industries [4]. Group 5: Future Development and Goals - Wuliangye's practices demonstrate that traditional culture can catalyze industrial upgrades, with a complete value transformation chain established [4]. - The company aims to deepen cultural exploration and expand its industrial boundaries, contributing to the development of Sichuan as a cultural and tourism stronghold [4]. - Wuliangye's strategic goals include achieving recognition as a global top 500 company while promoting traditional Chinese culture and local economic development [4].

Group 1 - The core concept of the article revolves around the cultural significance and marketing strategy of the Chinese high-end liquor brand, Guojiao 1573, which is deeply rooted in Chinese numerology and history [1][2][6] - Guojiao 1573 is recognized as the first ultra-premium liquor brand in China named after a number, setting a trend in the liquor industry [2] - The design of Guojiao 1573's bottle incorporates elements that reflect national pride, such as the 96 stars symbolizing China's vast territory of 9.6 million square kilometers [2] - The bottle's unique shape, featuring a round front and square back, symbolizes completeness and the longing for national unity, resonating with the sentiments of the Chinese people [4] Group 2 - The marketing of Guojiao 1573 emphasizes a spiritual experience, transforming the act of tasting into a connection with Chinese history and culture [6] - The brand's name and design elements convey deep cultural meanings, such as the philosophical concept of "one understanding and seven virtues," reflecting Eastern wisdom [1][6] - Guojiao 1573's branding strategy effectively combines historical reverence with modern consumer appeal, showcasing the romantic essence of Chinese culture [1][6]