Core Insights - The cotton doll market has rapidly evolved from a billion-yuan scale to a hundred-billion-yuan scale, reflecting the changing emotional needs and consumption logic of the younger generation [1][5] Market Dynamics - The core consumer group for cotton dolls primarily consists of Generation Z females, anime enthusiasts, and students seeking a sense of "nurturing" [3] - The popularity of cotton dolls on social media platforms is significant, with Douyin's related topics reaching 11.95 billion views and Xiaohongshu's topics at 6.66 billion views as of September 2, 2025 [2] Emotional Value - Emotional value is identified as the key driver of consumer interest, as consumers increasingly seek products that provide positive emotional experiences [5][7] - The cotton doll's appeal lies in its playability, companionship, and social attributes, allowing for personalized styling and fostering tight-knit communities among enthusiasts [5][7] Market Growth and Challenges - The cotton doll category has seen double-digit growth year-on-year in transactions, with over 50% increase in new online products in the last 30 days [4] - However, the industry faces challenges such as intellectual property protection, with counterfeit dolls impacting original designs and consumer experience [6][7] Future Trends - The market is expected to see a rise in professional brands with stronger supply chain management, design capabilities, and brand marketing, alongside collaborations with popular IPs [8] - There is a growing awareness among young consumers regarding copyright issues, leading to a collective resistance against counterfeits [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of emotional consumption as a driving force in consumer behavior, highlighting how consumers are increasingly seeking products and services that provide emotional satisfaction and fulfillment rather than just material needs [3][4]. Group 1: Emotional Consumption Trends - Emotional consumption is becoming a significant trend, with consumers willing to pay for products that offer positive emotional experiences such as relaxation and a sense of belonging [3][4]. - The young consumer demographic is particularly engaged in emotional consumption, with significant growth in categories like toys and EDC (Everyday Carry) items, indicating a shift towards products that provide emotional value [1][2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The emotional consumption market is diverse, encompassing physical goods and virtual services, with a notable increase in the popularity of collectible toys and emotional wellness services [4][6]. - Companies like Pop Mart are experiencing substantial growth, with projected revenue increases of 165% to 170% year-over-year for Q1 2025, indicating strong market demand for emotional products [4]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior Insights - Data shows that emotional products are being integrated into daily life, with consumers using toys as decorative items and sources of emotional connection [1]. - The EDC market has seen a transaction scale exceeding 150 million on platforms like Taobao, with the fastest growth among consumers aged 18 to 24, reflecting a broader trend of seeking emotional outlets through tangible items [2]. Group 4: Industry Challenges and Recommendations - The rapid growth of the emotional consumption market has led to challenges such as data privacy concerns, inconsistent service quality, and misleading marketing practices [6][7]. - Experts suggest the need for regulatory frameworks to ensure consumer protection and to establish clear standards for emotional products, differentiating between entertainment, therapeutic, and medical claims [7].

7月，江苏女孩席屿到贵州旅游，她喜欢的一名歌手是贵阳人，于是她带上了以歌手为原型的棉花娃 娃"周可可"。一天晚上，她路过贵阳的特色商业街区——一个汇集非遗体验、文创店铺、手工小铺等丰 富内容的"打卡点"，在一个摊位前，被穿着苗族衣服的玩偶吸引了。 席屿拿出自己的"周可可"对比了一下，发现衣服刚好，银饰项链大了一些。"店里的苗族头饰没有适合 的尺寸，店主量了一下'可可'的头围，说马上手工做一个，等一会儿就能拿到。"几天后，在黔东南的 西江千户苗寨，席屿和手中的棉花娃娃一同穿着蓝色系的苗族服饰，留下合影。她在网上晒出照片，自 豪地说："可可和苗族妆造适配性也太高了吧！" 这个夏天，玩偶们穿着民族服饰的"艺术照"，越来越多地出现在社交媒体上。玩偶们在贵州、广西体验 西南少数民族风情，在福建簪花，在山西穿上"晋商大小姐"的裙子……在"娃衣热"背后，传统文化以更 轻巧、更可爱的方式，融入现代生活，催生出充满活力的文化消费新场景。 彭琬涵根据汉代玩偶衣服文物再创作的娃衣稿图（已申请版权保护）。受访者供图 微缩的服饰，浓缩的文化 最近，玩偶Labubu火了，它们身上的各种衣服也引人注目。在广西壮族自治区博物馆文创商店里的" ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the collapse of the secondary market prices for new consumer products, particularly focusing on the Labubu collectibles, and highlights the speculative nature and risks associated with new consumption trends in the market [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Labubu's secondary market prices have plummeted by approximately 50%, with the price of a complete set dropping from 1500-2800 yuan to 650-800 yuan [1]. - Similar price volatility has been observed in other collectible brands like Bearbrick and Molly, where prices have seen drastic reductions of 60%-80% over the years [5][6][8]. - The article notes that the trading behavior in the secondary market is often driven by speculative practices, including "hunger marketing" and the manipulation of perceived scarcity [14][16]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are encouraged to recognize the "scarcity illusion" and set rational spending limits, as many products are priced significantly above their actual production costs [22][23]. - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining transaction records and engaging in legitimate trading environments to avoid falling victim to speculative bubbles [25]. Group 3: Industry Practices - The article points out that companies often engage in practices that create artificial scarcity, such as claiming limited releases while adjusting production dynamically [16]. - There is a call for the industry to establish transparent probability mechanisms and focus on the intrinsic value of products rather than marketing gimmicks to ensure sustainable growth [26][29]. - Regulatory changes are anticipated, with new guidelines set to limit sales to minors and enforce transparency in product pricing and probability disclosures [28].

Core Insights - The young consumer power is increasingly evident in the toy and trendy toy market, with explosive growth in sales and a significant number of merchants achieving high sales milestones during the Tmall 618 event [1][4][12] Market Performance - As of June 12, 2023, the Tmall toy and trendy toy industry saw six merchants surpassing 100 million yuan in sales, nearly 100 merchants exceeding 10 million yuan, and 16 products breaking the 10 million yuan mark [1] - The industry experienced a three-digit year-on-year growth for over 2,400 Tmall trendy toy stores, with the number of merchants surpassing last year's 618 event [1][4] Market Share and Growth - Tmall's trendy toy market holds a dominant 70% market share, nearly three times that of the second competitor, indicating a strong competitive position [4][6] - The category of blind boxes, figurines, and related products saw a staggering 71.5% growth year-on-year in May 2023 [4] Consumer Trends - The "Guzi" (domestic trendy toys) market is outpacing the "Rizi" (Japanese trendy toys) market in both transaction volume and growth rate, with a significant increase in overseas orders [7][8] - The EDC (Every Day Carry) toy category has surpassed 150 million yuan in sales, with a notable increase in male consumer engagement [9][12] Product Launches and Sales - Tmall introduced approximately 20,000 new products from around 2,000 IPs during the 618 event, with several stores achieving over 10 million yuan in sales on launch day [7][8] - The "LABUBU" brand saw significant interest, with related searches exceeding 500,000 and sales surpassing 1 million yuan in May 2023 [10] Cultural Impact - The popularity of domestic IPs is driving sales growth, with a notable increase in transactions for products related to films and celebrities [8] - The Tmall platform is recognized as the leading platform for trendy toys, influencing brand strategies across the industry [12]

Core Insights - The cotton dolls phenomenon has emerged as a new form of emotional support and social interaction among young people, particularly among the Gen Z demographic [2][4]. Market Overview - The cotton doll market in China has reached a scale of 11.2 billion yuan in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% from 2016 to 2023 [4]. - The popularity of cotton dolls is reflected in social media engagement, with interaction volumes reaching 258 million and a voice volume of 6.226 million in the past year [4]. Demographics - The primary fan base for cotton dolls consists of young women under 24 years old, with those born after 2000 making up 59% of the audience. Female consumers account for 82% of the total [4]. - This demographic seeks personalization and uniqueness, showing a willingness to spend on emotional value and interests [4]. Product Categories - Cotton dolls are categorized into two main types: "attributed" dolls, which are based on celebrities or licensed IPs, and "unattributed" dolls, which are original creations by fans [3][4]. - The trend of anthropomorphized designs has allowed dolls to exhibit different personality traits, enhancing their appeal [3]. Cultural Impact - Cotton dolls have fostered a unique subculture among fans, referred to as "doll moms," who create a close-knit social circle around these toys, sharing experiences and deepening emotional connections [4]. Commercial Aspects - The commercial model for cotton dolls includes both fan-driven customizations and official merchandise, with the former catering to niche audiences and the latter targeting broader consumer bases [6]. - The market for doll clothing, a derivative product, is becoming essential for "raising" cotton dolls, with a global market size of approximately $1.8 billion in 2023 and a projected CAGR of 12% by 2025 [7]. Challenges - Despite the growth, there are concerns regarding the pricing of doll clothing, with some consumers questioning the rationality of current price levels, indicating a need for industry standardization [7].

Core Viewpoint - "Emotional consumption" is emerging as a highly potential new consumption model, reflecting significant changes in the lifestyle and consumption concepts of contemporary young people [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The market for "emotional consumption" has seen a dramatic increase, with related content on platforms like Xiaohongshu growing over 400 times in the past three years [1]. - Taobao data indicates that in 2024, the primary reason for young consumers to spend is emotional value and interests, with sales of customized products like hand-painted avatars and unique pillows increasing by over 50% [1]. Group 2: Risks and Challenges - There are risks associated with "emotional consumption," including consumers being misled by businesses, leading to impulsive buying behaviors and the misconception of using consumption to fill emotional voids [2]. - The industry faces issues such as inconsistent product quality, false advertising, privacy breaches, and lack of qualified personnel, which can harm consumer rights [2]. Group 3: Recommendations - Businesses should balance emotional value with market demand, enhance product quality, and protect user privacy while designing emotional products [3]. - Online platforms need to enforce strict vetting of operators and establish comprehensive regulatory systems to monitor content and quickly address harmful information [3]. - Consumers are encouraged to adopt rational consumption habits, avoid blind following, and be aware of privacy protection [3]. - Regulatory bodies should strengthen industry norms and regulations, ensuring clear boundaries and increased oversight of the market [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of the "doll culture" among younger generations, particularly the post-00s and post-10s, who engage in a unique subculture centered around collecting and customizing dolls, creating a complete industry chain from design to resale [3][4]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The "doll culture" has evolved into a vibrant consumer sector, with various participants including IP creators, custom factories, and individual collectors, all seeking profit opportunities [17]. - The market for dolls, particularly cotton dolls and BJD dolls, has seen significant growth, with the market size for the Chinese trendy toy market expected to reach 110.1 billion yuan by 2026, with the "doll culture" contributing over 30% [22]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Young consumers, particularly those born in the 00s, view dolls as companions and emotional support, often relating the experience to raising a child or pet [15][16]. - The purchasing process for dolls is competitive, with limited editions often requiring quick buying skills due to "hunger marketing" strategies employed by manufacturers [14][19]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The profitability of doll factories has been affected by increased competition, leading to a shift from mass production to more personalized, high-priced custom dolls [19][20]. - The article highlights the challenges faced by individual sellers (referred to as "doll moms"), including issues of trust and the risk of financial loss due to unfulfilled orders [21][22]. Group 4: Professional Opportunities - The rise of the "doll culture" has led to the emergence of niche professions such as custom doll makers and makeup artists, with some individuals earning substantial incomes [17][18]. - The article notes that the profitability of these roles has become more challenging as the market becomes saturated, requiring innovation and cost management to remain competitive [20][22].

以下文章来源于惊蛰研究所 ，作者惊蛰研究所消费组 惊蛰研究所 . 探索发现新经济。 将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 棉花娃娃曾经是偶像经济下的产物。 作者丨成昱 来源丨惊蛰研究所 吃饭前先拍下"宝宝"跟食物的合影、旅游时镜头对焦的是可爱"崽崽"、生日时还要和"娃娃"一起在餐 厅切庆生蛋糕……然而这些备受年轻人宠溺的"崽崽"们可不是真正的小孩，而是萌感十足、触感柔软 的棉花娃娃。 坐拥80个棉花娃娃的娃妈"橘子"通常会购买以明星、二次元角色为原型的棉花娃娃，她告诉惊蛰研 究所，"每一只娃我都是当做崽来养的，就像养宠物的人喜欢撸猫撸狗一样，我们也特别喜欢rua娃吸 娃，大家的心态都是'宝宝那么可爱，让妈咪亲亲'，就是比较喜欢可爱或毛茸茸的事物"。 从追星应援产物到二次元同人二创制品，再到无属性棉花玩偶，棉花娃娃凭借可爱软萌的外表、能够 自由装扮的高可玩性，以及能够提供情感陪伴和治愈减压的情绪价值，俘获了大批年轻消费者的心。 与此同时，棉花娃娃的火爆也带火了娃衣、娃包、娃娃妆发等各类衍生品市场。 在"谷子经济"的催化下，棉花娃娃、娃衣等成为潮玩市场中不断增长的热门品类。在柔软的棉花娃娃 之上，愿意为热 ...