从需求侧看，王一鸣认为，要建设强大国内市场，加快构建新发展格局。《建议》提出，坚持惠民生和 促消费、投资于物和投资于人紧密结合。他表示，过去一个时期，在面临外部冲击和经济下行压力时， 我们往往通过发债上项目，投资基础设施和产业项目，通过"投资于物"拉动经济增长，取得明显成效。 但这种模式也带来问题，突出表现为供需不平衡，就是"供强需弱"。 "投资于人"意味着要增加民生和公共服务投入。《建议》提出要合理提高公共服务支出占财政收入的比 重，增加政府资金用于民生保障支出，提高民生类项目政府投资比重。"这'三个提高'具有重要意义， 将直接或间接增加老百姓收入。"《建议》提出，适应人口结构变化和流动趋势，加强人力资源开发和 人的全面发展投资。这意味着在人口总量减少、劳动力数量对经济增长贡献下降的同时，要增加人力资 本投资，提高人力资本对经济增长的贡献，这对保持经济持续稳定增长有重要意义。 （原标题：王一鸣谈"十五五"规划建议：持续增强高质量发展动力） 国经中心副理事长王一鸣在活动上表示，高质量发展是全面建设社会主义现代化国家的首要任务，也 是"十五五"时期经济社会发展的主题。推动高质量发展，既要加快高水平科技自立自强， ...

Core Viewpoint - The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the importance of technological self-reliance and innovation as key drivers for China's economic and social development, aiming to enhance the overall effectiveness of the national innovation system and promote high-quality development [2][4]. Group 1: Technological Innovation - The 15th Five-Year Plan aims to significantly improve the level of technological self-reliance and innovation, focusing on breakthroughs in key core technologies such as integrated circuits, advanced materials, and biomanufacturing [3][5]. - There is a strong emphasis on the integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, with a call for a new type of national system to support decisive breakthroughs in critical areas [3][6]. - The plan highlights the need for a coordinated approach to education, technology, and talent development, fostering a robust ecosystem for innovation [4][6]. Group 2: Future Industries - The plan outlines the necessity to cultivate and expand emerging and future industries, including renewable energy, aerospace, and quantum technology, to drive economic growth [5][6]. - It advocates for the implementation of large-scale application demonstration actions for new technologies and products, aiming to accelerate the development of emerging industries [5]. - The exploration of diverse technological routes and viable business models is essential for positioning future industries as new economic growth points [5][6]. Group 3: Talent Development - The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the importance of nurturing top-tier innovative talent and establishing a global influence in education and scientific research [4]. - It calls for a comprehensive mechanism to promote the development of education, technology, and talent, ensuring a synergistic relationship between technological innovation and talent cultivation [4]. - The plan aims to optimize the talent structure and promote regional coordination in talent development, addressing the need for strategic scientists and skilled professionals [4].

Group 1: Key Achievements and Goals - The "14th Five-Year Plan" achieved significant milestones, marking a strong start for the new journey towards the second centenary goal[5] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a critical phase in achieving socialist modernization, emphasizing continuity in guiding ideology and urgency in addressing uncertainties[6] - The implicit economic growth target for the "15th Five-Year Plan" is around 5%, with a focus on maintaining growth within a reasonable range to reach the per capita GDP level of moderately developed countries by 2035[7][21] Group 2: Technological and Economic Strategies - The plan emphasizes enhancing self-reliance in technology, with specific measures to boost productivity and foster innovation in key sectors such as integrated circuits and advanced materials[8][36] - The strategy includes a focus on balancing supply and demand, with a significant emphasis on boosting domestic consumption and investing in human capital[9][41] - The plan aims to maintain reasonable investment growth, particularly in public services and infrastructure, with an estimated investment demand exceeding 5 trillion yuan for urban infrastructure upgrades[10][57] Group 3: Fiscal and Market Reforms - The plan highlights the need for sustainable fiscal policies and the activation of existing resources to enhance macroeconomic governance[11] - It calls for the establishment of a unified national market, addressing barriers to competition and promoting a more integrated economic environment[10][65] - The emphasis on expanding high-level openness and balancing imports and exports is aimed at fostering a more resilient economic structure[10][62]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for high-quality development amidst increasing external challenges and uncertainties, including geopolitical conflicts and economic protectionism[3] - The plan sets a qualitative goal for economic growth to remain within a reasonable range, with significant achievements in high-quality development[3] - Despite external pressures, China's economic foundation remains solid, with strong resilience and potential for long-term growth[9] Group 2: Policy Directions - The plan outlines 12 key tasks focusing on optimizing supply, expanding demand, ensuring safety, and balancing fairness[3] - A more proactive macroeconomic policy is highlighted, with an emphasis on developing diverse financial instruments and strengthening financial regulation[20] - The plan aims to enhance the initial income distribution mechanism, promoting a market-driven approach to compensation based on contribution[24] Group 3: Investment and Consumption - The inbound tourism market is recovering, with 15.89 million foreign visitors from January to August 2025, a 52.1% increase year-on-year, indicating a potential boost in consumer spending[17] - Infrastructure investment is expected to rise due to industrial transfers and population movements, particularly in western and northeastern regions[18] - The plan stresses the importance of consumer spending, with initiatives to cultivate international consumption centers and expand inbound consumption[17]

Group 1 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for significant improvements in China's economic, technological, defense, and international influence by 2035, with a target of reaching a per capita GDP equivalent to that of moderately developed countries, estimated to be around $20,000 [1][2] - In 2024, China's GDP is projected to exceed 130 trillion yuan, reaching approximately 134.9 trillion yuan, with a per capita GDP of $13,445, marking a continuous increase above $13,000 for two consecutive years [2] - Achieving the per capita GDP target requires a substantial increase in economic growth, with a projected annual nominal growth rate of 5% over the next decade to reach $23,000 by 2035 [2] Group 2 - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is seen as a crucial period for transitioning from the previous plan, with expectations of maintaining stable growth despite challenges such as aging population and declining total population [3] - The focus will shift from factor input-driven growth to enhancing total factor productivity, emphasizing the need for an efficiency revolution driven by "new quality productivity" to counteract demographic and international challenges [3] - China plans to upgrade key industries, estimating an additional market space of around 10 trillion yuan over the next five years, while fostering emerging industries such as quantum technology, biomanufacturing, and hydrogen energy to become new growth points [4]

证券时报记者江聃郭博昊 "十五五"时期是我国基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期。《中共中央关于制定国 民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下简称《建议》）10月28日发布。《建议》擘画了未 来五年的发展蓝图，明确七大发展目标，涵盖高质量发展、科技自立自强等多个领域，延续了对经济增 长需保持合理区间的要求。接受证券时报记者采访的专家认为，"十五五"时期，我国国内生产总值 （GDP）年均实际增速需在4.8%左右，名义增速至少5%。我国将依托制度、市场等优势释放增长潜 力，应对全球经济增长放缓、国内人口结构变化等挑战，培育新质生产力并挖掘产业新机遇。 关键的五年 《建议》把握"十五五"时期基本定位和阶段性要求，明确了未来五年经济社会发展的七大目标。分别 是：高质量发展取得显著成效；科技自立自强水平大幅提高；进一步全面深化改革取得新突破；社会文 明程度明显提升；人民生活品质不断提高；美丽中国建设取得新的重大进展；国家安全屏障更加巩固。 粤开证券首席经济学家、研究院院长罗志恒在接受证券时报记者采访时表示，这七大目标相互联系、相 互支撑，共同构成"十五五"时期高质量发展的系统目标体系。 参考以往做 ...

（原标题："十五五"产业趋势三大关键定调：巩固传统优势，决胜新兴未来） 21世纪经济报道记者周潇枭 见习记者冉黎黎 北京报道 10月28日，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会 发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下简称《建议》）全文公布，《建议》明确把"建设现代化产业体 系，巩固壮大实体经济根基"摆在战略任务的第一条，部署了4方面重点任务，包括优化提升传统产业、 培育壮大新兴产业和未来产业、促进服务业优质高效发展、构建现代化基础设施体系。 分别来看，在传统产业方面，矿业、冶金、化工、轻工、纺织、机械、船舶、建筑等产业不仅要巩固提 升竞争力，还要巩固提升在全球产业分工中的地位。新兴产业方面，《建议》提出着力打造新兴支柱产 业，而"十四五"规划纲要中尚未出现的低空经济位于《建议》列举的战略性新兴产业之列。未来产业方 面，《建议》提出，推动量子科技、生物制造、氢能和核聚变能、脑机接口、具身智能、第六代移动通 信等成为新的经济增长点。 同时，《建议》提出，提升产业链自主可控水平，强化产业基础再造和重大技术装备攻关，滚动实施制 造业重点产业链高质量发展行动，发展先进制造业集群。推动技术改造升级，促进制造业数智化转型， 发展智 ...

10月28日， 中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议 全文 发布。 建议 提出 ， 清洁低碳安全高效的新型能源体系初步建成。持续提高新能源 供给比重，推进化石能源安全可靠有序替代，着力构建新型电力系统，建设能源强 国。 现将"十五五"规划建议中的能源部署整理如下： ● "十五五"时期经济社会发展的主要目标。 ——美 丽中国建设取得新的重大进展。 绿色生产生活方式基本形成，碳达峰目标如期实现，清洁低碳安全高效的新型能源 体系初步建成，主要污染物排放总量持续减少，生态系统多样性稳定性持续性不断提升。 ●建设现代化产业体系，巩固壮大实体经济根基 。 培育壮大新兴产业和未来产业。 着力打造新兴支柱产业。实施产业创新工程，一体推进创新设施建设、技术研究开发、产 品迭代升级，加快新能源、新材料、航空航天、 低空经济等战略性新兴产业集群发展。完善产业生态，实施新技术新产品 新场景大规模 应用示范行动，加快新兴产业规模化发展。 前瞻布局未来产业，探索多元技术路线、典型应用场景、可行商业模式、市场监管规则，推动量子科技、生物制造、氢能 和核聚变能、脑机接口、具身智能、第六代移动通信等成为新的经济增长点。创新 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines a strategic direction for China's economic and social development, emphasizing long-term stability and growth in the capital market, with a focus on digital technology, space economy, high-end manufacturing, domestic consumption, and biotechnology [1][25]. Macro Environment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a crucial phase in achieving socialist modernization by 2035, with a target of doubling GDP per capita compared to 2020 levels, necessitating an average annual GDP growth rate of approximately 4.4% from 2026 to 2035 [2][3]. Key Changes in Development Environment - Significant changes from the "14th Five-Year Plan" include advancements in technological innovation, adjustments in financial cycles, and increased geopolitical tensions, leading to a greater emphasis on domestic demand and a more confident approach to opening up [3][4]. Industrial and Technological Focus - The plan prioritizes the construction of a modern industrial system, enhancing efficiency and security in supply chains, and emphasizes the importance of traditional industries while fostering emerging sectors such as renewable energy and quantum technology [4][5][20]. Consumer and Demand-Side Policies - The plan aims to boost consumer spending through supply-side and demand-side measures, including improving the quality of consumer goods and services, enhancing employment and income distribution, and removing unreasonable consumption restrictions [7][9][10]. Open Economy Strategy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes proactive and autonomous opening up, with a focus on expanding market access, promoting balanced trade development, and enhancing financial openness to improve China's position in the global financial system [11][12][13]. Green Transition and Carbon Goals - The plan identifies the "15th Five-Year Plan" period as critical for achieving carbon peak goals, with a focus on controlling coal and oil consumption, implementing dual control of carbon emissions, and promoting green consumption [15][16][20]. Fiscal and Tax Reforms - Fiscal reforms during the "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on enhancing sustainability and the effectiveness of active fiscal policies, with an emphasis on improving the tax system and increasing public service spending to support consumption [17][18][22]. Capital Market Outlook - The capital market is expected to exhibit a "long-term" and "steady" trend during the "15th Five-Year Plan," supported by government emphasis on market development and favorable economic conditions [25][26]. Investment Opportunities - Key sectors for investment during the "15th Five-Year Plan" include digital technology, space economy, high-end manufacturing, domestic consumption, and biotechnology, with specific focus areas such as AI, 6G, and innovative healthcare solutions [26].

Macro Perspective - The "15th Five-Year Plan" serves as a crucial transitional phase towards achieving the 2035 modernization goals, with a target GDP growth rate of approximately 4.4% annually from 2026 to 2035 to double the economic output compared to 2020 levels [3][4] - The new environment presents several changes, including breakthroughs in technological innovation, a downward adjustment in financial cycles, and increased geopolitical conflicts, necessitating a focus on supply-side optimization and domestic demand [4][5] Technological Innovation and Industrial Development - The construction of a modern industrial system is emphasized as the material and technical foundation for Chinese-style modernization, with a focus on enhancing efficiency and security within the industrial chain [5][6] - The plan highlights the importance of traditional industries while also fostering emerging sectors such as new energy, aerospace, and advanced manufacturing, with specific attention to future industries like quantum technology and hydrogen energy [6][7] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The plan aims to significantly increase the resident consumption rate, focusing on both supply-side and demand-side measures to stimulate consumption [9][10] - Key policies include improving the consumption system, enhancing infrastructure for consumer services, and expanding the supply of quality consumer goods and services [9][10] Open Economy and International Cooperation - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes a more proactive and autonomous approach to opening up the economy, with a focus on expanding market access and promoting balanced trade development [12][13] - Financial openness is highlighted as a critical area, with a goal to enhance the international status of the Chinese currency and improve the capital account [13][14] Green Transition and Carbon Neutrality - The plan identifies the "15th Five-Year Plan" period as critical for achieving carbon peak goals, with a focus on controlling coal and oil consumption and implementing a dual control system for carbon emissions [16][17] - The expansion of the national carbon market and promotion of green consumption are also key components of the strategy [17][18] Fiscal and Tax Reforms - Fiscal reforms during the "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on enhancing sustainability and the effectiveness of active fiscal policies, including optimizing the tax structure and increasing public service spending [18][19] - The plan aims to improve the social security system and reduce reliance on general budget subsidies, thereby enhancing fiscal sustainability [19][20] Capital Market Outlook - The capital market is expected to exhibit a "long-term" and "steady" trend during the "15th Five-Year Plan," supported by government emphasis on market development and favorable economic conditions [37] - Key sectors to watch include digital technology, high-end manufacturing, and consumer sectors, with a focus on innovation and quality upgrades [38]