记者丨肖夏 实习生侯朝霞 编辑丨高梦阳 在五粮液传出"调价"消息后，近一周业内都在关注：其他高端白酒会不会跟进？哪些会跟进？ 过去这轮周期，飞天茅台在高端白酒市场逐渐一骑绝尘，五粮液、国窖1573跟随其后，郎酒青花郎、君 品习酒亦有一定份额，茅台1935近年更是异军突起，在酱香赛道的位次连续上升。 但一直屹立前三的，还是飞天茅台、第八代五粮液、国窖1573。后两者同为川酒、同为浓香，且价格接 近，在市场策略方面经常出现联动。 过去几天，与21世纪经济报道记者交流的行业观察人士、机构人士，对国窖1573是否会跟随五粮液"调 价"给出了不同看法。 多位交流对象认为，国窖1573会再次采用跟随战术，但预计暂不会动出厂价，而是采取和五粮液类似的 打法，通过向渠道提供更多补贴"曲线降价"。 酒业评论人肖竹青认为，（五粮液之后）明年会轮到国窖1573跟进。"下一步是'放量抢位赛'，谁先降 价谁先吃到份额，后跟进者只能捡剩余市场。"另有券商人士也对21世纪经济报道记者表示，"国窖1573 必须跟。" 上一轮调整期以来，无论提价还是降价，国窖1573大部分时候紧跟五粮液。反映到市场价上，两者高度 单品的差价，大部分时候控制在 ...

21世纪经济报道记者肖夏 实习生侯朝霞 在五粮液（000858）传出"调价"消息后，近一周业内都在关注：其他高端白酒会不会跟进？哪些会跟进？ 过去这轮周期，飞天茅台在高端白酒市场逐渐一骑绝尘，五粮液、国窖1573跟随其后，郎酒青花郎、君品习酒亦有一定份额，茅台1935近年更是异军突起， 在酱香赛道的位次连续上升。 但一直屹立前三的，还是飞天茅台、第八代五粮液、国窖1573。后两者同为川酒、同为浓香，且价格接近，在市场策略方面经常出现联动。 过去几天，与21世纪经济报道记者交流的行业观察人士、机构人士，对国窖1573是否会跟随五粮液"调价"给出了不同看法。 多位交流对象认为，国窖1573会再次采用跟随战术，但预计暂不会动出厂价，而是采取和五粮液类似的打法，通过向渠道提供更多补贴"曲线降价"。 酒业评论人肖竹青认为，（五粮液之后）明年会轮到国窖1573跟进。"下一步是'放量抢位赛'，谁先降价谁先吃到份额，后跟进者只能捡剩余市场。"另有券 商人士也对21世纪经济报道记者表示，"国窖1573必须跟。" 上一轮调整期以来，无论提价还是降价，国窖1573大部分时候紧跟五粮液。反映到市场价上，两者高度单品的差价，大部分时候 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a significant restructuring and bubble clearing as of late 2025, with prices of premium products like Moutai dropping below official guidance and high inventory levels leading to widespread losses among distributors [1][3][5] Price Collapse and Inventory Issues - The price system in the liquor industry is experiencing a comprehensive loosening, with Moutai's wholesale price falling below 1600 yuan and e-commerce platforms offering prices as low as 1299 yuan, representing a decline of over 50% from its peak in 2021 [3][5] - This "benchmark effect" has spread across the industry, with major brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao also seeing significant price drops, leading to over 60% of liquor companies facing price inversions [5][7] - The industry is facing severe inventory issues, with turnover days reaching 900 days and a 300% increase in private inventory circulation, indicating a collapse of speculative buying expectations [5][7] Performance Data - The liquor industry reported its worst quarterly performance in nearly a decade in Q3 2025, with 20 listed companies in A-shares generating a total revenue of 3177.79 billion yuan (down 5.90% year-on-year) and a net profit of 1225.71 billion yuan (down 6.93% year-on-year) [7][9] - Over 80% of companies reported a decline in net profit, with Wuliangye's revenue plummeting by 52% and Yanghe's profit dropping by 158% [7] Changing Consumer Logic - The core issue facing the industry is the failure of traditional growth logic, as government and business consumption models have become ineffective due to strict regulations and economic downturns [9][11] - Younger consumers are increasingly rejecting the traditional liquor culture, leading to a significant decline in white liquor consumption at social events [9][11] - Consumer demand is shifting from a focus on social consumption to a balance of social and personal enjoyment, with new consumption scenarios like casual drinking and home consumption emerging as growth areas [11][12] Strategic Adjustments - Shanxi Fenjiu is one of the few companies maintaining growth, with a revenue increase of 5% in the first three quarters of 2025, attributed to its product advantages and market strategies [15][18] - The company plans to adopt a "dual-line" strategy focusing on traditional markets and expanding into younger and international markets, with new product lines aimed at attracting younger consumers [15][18] Industry Transformation - The liquor industry is transitioning from a focus on investment to a focus on quality, with a projected decline in consumption volume over the next decade [19][20] - Companies are expected to prioritize producing better quality liquor and adapting to changing consumer demands, with a notable increase in the storage of high-quality base liquor [20] - The industry is moving towards a new phase characterized by social drinking, personal enjoyment, and investment collection, necessitating higher standards for product innovation and brand management [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - The "Double 11" shopping festival has seen a continuation of low prices for liquor, but some premium products have reached a price stabilization point, indicating a shift in market dynamics and strategies from liquor companies [1][2][4]. Price Trends - Many liquor products have experienced price drops during the "Double 11" event, with notable examples including: - Junpin Xijiu dropping to a minimum of 589 yuan per bottle from a thousand yuan price range [2]. - Jinsha Zhai's price falling below 400 yuan, reaching as low as 358 yuan per bottle [2]. - Dream Blue M6+ prices ranging from 560 to 650 yuan, with a new low of 499 yuan on e-commerce platforms [2][3]. - However, some products, such as Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573, have shown price stability compared to the "618" event, indicating a reluctance to further reduce prices [3][6]. Subsidy Dynamics - The subsidy levels for liquor during "Double 11" have not significantly increased compared to previous events, with more subsidies directed towards other categories like beauty and electronics [4][5]. - The ongoing presence of subsidies has led to a decrease in consumer demand for liquor, as initial excitement has waned [4][5]. Company Strategies - Liquor companies are adopting a strong stance on price maintenance, emphasizing authorized sales channels and penalizing unauthorized distributors [5][7]. - This approach aims to protect the interests of distributors and maintain product value amidst a challenging market environment [6][7]. Market Conditions - The liquor industry is currently undergoing a deep adjustment phase, with companies focusing on inventory clearance and price stability to support distributors [6][7]. - The overall market sentiment suggests that if prices continue to decline, it could further damage distributor confidence and industry stability [6][7]. Future Outlook - The industry will continue to monitor the impact of "Double 11" on liquor prices, assessing whether they will stabilize or decline further in the coming months [8].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share liquor industry reported its worst performance in a decade for Q3 2025, with 20 listed companies (excluding Shunxin Agriculture) achieving a total revenue of 312.09 billion yuan and a net profit of 122.49 billion yuan, both down approximately 7% year-on-year [1][2] Financial Performance - The total revenue and net profit of the liquor industry have significantly declined, indicating a pronounced pressure on the industry [1] - Only Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu managed to maintain growth in both revenue and net profit amidst the overall decline [1] - The total contract liabilities for 20 liquor companies reached 39 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.54%, despite the overall performance downturn [1][6] Inventory and Turnover - The total inventory of 21 listed liquor companies rose to 170.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.32%, with an average inventory turnover period extending to 1424 days, up 65.21% from the previous year [2][4] - The increase in inventory turnover days signals significant pressure on channel inventory [4] Market Response - The market reacted calmly to the poor performance reports, with the China Securities Liquor Index rising by 1.72% on October 31, indicating that investors have already digested the performance pressures [1] - The stability in contract liabilities suggests that confidence in the industry and companies remains intact, despite the challenges [2][7] Channel Dynamics - The increase in contract liabilities is primarily driven by leading liquor companies, with four out of six major firms reporting year-on-year growth [7] - Companies are shifting from a simple sales model to a service-oriented approach, focusing on channel health and profitability for distributors [8][9] Innovative Sales Models - New sales models are emerging, such as the "Wan Shang Alliance" by Zhenjiu Li Du, which emphasizes no stockpiling and allows for returns, thereby reducing inventory risks [10][11] - The introduction of commission-based systems and unified pricing strategies aims to alleviate financial pressure on distributors and ensure transparent profit distribution [12] Conclusion - The growth in contract liabilities and the evolving relationships between manufacturers and distributors highlight the industry's resilience and potential for recovery, as companies prioritize channel health and collaborative strategies [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - During this year's "Double 11" shopping festival, at least eight major liquor companies issued statements regarding authorized stores, highlighting the prevalence of counterfeit products sold at low prices under the guise of "billion-dollar subsidies" and emphasizing the need for consumers to purchase through authorized channels [1][2][3] Group 1: Industry Response to Counterfeit Products - Major liquor companies, including Moutai and Wuliangye, have collectively issued warnings about unauthorized stores, marking a significant shift in their approach during promotional events [2][3] - Wuliangye reported that 12% of products purchased online were counterfeit, with a significant portion sourced from large e-commerce platforms [2][3] - The industry is increasingly recognizing the risks associated with unauthorized sales channels, which lack product control and traceability, leading to potential quality issues for consumers [3][4] Group 2: Price and Inventory Challenges - The liquor industry is facing high inventory levels and widespread price inversion, with the average inventory turnover days reaching 900 days, a 10% increase year-on-year [6] - Moutai's price has dropped significantly, with a total decline of 36.15% since 2022, reflecting changes in consumer behavior and market conditions [6][7] - The trend of low-priced promotions has exacerbated price inversion issues, forcing liquor companies to reassess their pricing strategies to maintain market stability [7][8] Group 3: Strategic Shift in Pricing Management - Liquor companies are increasingly focusing on controlling prices and stabilizing their pricing systems in response to market pressures [5][8] - Recent financial reports indicate that only a few companies, like Moutai, have seen revenue growth, while most have abandoned annual growth targets to prioritize channel health and price stability [8] - The ongoing losses faced by many distributors are prompting upstream liquor companies to reconsider their volume and pricing strategies to protect their interests [8]

Core Insights - The chairman of Xijiu Group, Wang Diqiang, has been conducting extensive market research across various provinces, indicating a strategic response to market pressures [1][5][10] - The wholesale price of Junpin Xijiu has seen a significant decline of 39.82% over the past five years, making it the largest drop among T9 brands [5][9][12] - The company aims to enhance its market positioning and sales strategies amid changing consumer preferences and increased competition following its separation from Moutai [10][15][17] Market Research and Strategy - Wang Diqiang's recent visits to key markets such as Shaanxi and Tianjin are part of a broader initiative to understand market dynamics and unify corporate strategy [1][5] - The research aims to identify issues and foster consensus within the company to elevate its marketing efforts [5][9] Price Trends and Market Position - Junpin Xijiu's wholesale price has decreased from 955 yuan per bottle in June 2021 to approximately 683 yuan currently, reflecting a significant market adjustment [5][8] - The average inventory turnover days for the white liquor industry has increased to 900 days, indicating a growing challenge in managing stock and pricing strategies [9][12] Industry Context and Challenges - The white liquor industry is experiencing a structural shift in consumer behavior, with a growing preference for lower-priced products, impacting high-end brands like Junpin Xijiu [9][10] - Following its independence from Moutai in 2022, Xijiu faces intensified competition, necessitating a reevaluation of its market strategy [12][15] Future Goals and Development - Xijiu aims to achieve an asset scale of 33 billion yuan and revenue of 23.5 billion yuan by 2025, with current figures at 26.835 billion yuan and 19.864 billion yuan respectively [17] - The company's leadership is focused on stabilizing prices and enhancing market confidence to drive growth in a challenging industry landscape [17]