证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 10 月 30 日 迎驾贡酒（603198.SH） % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -5 -17 -40 相对表现 -7 -43 -61 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -40 -20 0 20 40 Oct/24 Feb/25 Jun/25 Sep/25 (%) 迎驾贡酒 沪深300 Q3 下滑幅度与 Q2 接近，出清效果逐步显现 消费品/食品饮料 公司发布《2025 年第三季度报告》，25Q3 公司实现营收/归母净利润 13.6 亿 元/3.8 亿元，同比-20.8%/-39.0%。公司 Q3 营收、净利润下滑幅度较 Q2 相仿， 在行业整体大幅出清的背景下显现一定韧性，先于行业进行调整的效果逐步显 现。各产品线单季度调整幅度同比收窄，洞 6、洞 9 在省内市场需求基本平稳， 静候动销企稳后业绩逐步修复。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 6720 | 7344 | 6052 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry, indicating a focus on sectors with good performance and potential recovery in demand [3]. Core Insights - The liquor sector is experiencing a gradual improvement in sales dynamics, with a continued focus on clearing inventory. The report suggests that when performance no longer declines, it will signal a potential recovery in stock prices [7][13]. - The food sector shows a divergence in performance, with new consumption categories maintaining good momentum while traditional categories face weaker demand. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery in traditional consumption [21][31]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - Sales dynamics in Q3 improved compared to May-June, but the report anticipates continued inventory clearance with a double-digit year-on-year decline expected. The demand from government and business sectors remains under pressure, while the banquet and mass consumption markets are relatively stable [7][13]. - Major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are expected to see varied performance, with Moutai projected to achieve a 4% increase in revenue year-on-year, while Wuliangye may experience an 8% decline [14][16]. Food Sector - The overall demand environment in Q3 was relatively weak, with retail sales growth slowing down. However, sectors like snacks and beverages continue to show good performance, while traditional categories like seasonings and beer remain subdued [21][31]. - The report highlights that raw material costs are generally declining, but the trend is slowing down. Packaging prices have increased, impacting profit margins across various segments [24][25]. - Specific companies such as Yili and Mengniu are facing growth pressures, while new dairy companies are expected to maintain strong growth due to structural improvements [31][35]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on sectors with good performance, such as snacks and beverages, while also keeping an eye on traditional consumption recovery. Specific stock recommendations include West Wheat Foods in the snack sector and leading liquor brands like Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao [10][11].

证券研究报告：食品饮料|行业周报 发布时间：2025-10-13 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 17022.92 | | 52 | 周最高 | 19550.64 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最低 | 16379.5 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-10 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-10 -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 食品饮料 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:张子健 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050001 Email:zhangzijian@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨逸文 SAC 登记编号:S1340522120002 Email:yangyiwen@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《IFBH（6603.HK）：椰子水空间广 阔，公司产品市场品牌端持续加码、 ...