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珍酒李渡(06979):表观压力释放,新品起量可期
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-23 11:09
业绩简评 2025 年 8 月 22 日公司披露 25 年中期业绩,期内实现营收 24.97 亿元,同比-39.6%;归母净利 5.75 亿元,同比-23.5%;经调整净 利 6.13 亿元,同比-39.8%。 经营分析 分价位来看:25H1 高端/次高端/中端及以下分别实现营收 5.8/9.8/9.4 亿元,同比 -47%/-42%/-31% ,毛利率分别 -2.2/+2.3/+2.7pct;高端价位毛利率回落主要源于内部结构调 整,次高端及以下价位毛利率提升主要源于自产基酒逐步替代+包 材等成本优化+低毛利产品销量下滑致使内部结构优化。 从报表质量看:1)25H1 整体毛利率同比+0.3pct 至 59.0%,销售 及经销开支占比同比+0.4pct 至 22.2%(绝对值同比-38.5%),行 政开支占比同比+3.1pct 至 9.8%(绝对值同比-11.3%);经调整净 利率-0.1pct 至 24.6%;2)25H1 末应计返利/预收客户款项余额分 别 4.9/14.3 亿元,较 24 年末-1.9/-3.3 亿元。 盈利预测、估值与评级 我们预计公司 25-27 年收入分别-20.4%/+11.7% ...
珍酒李渡(06979.HK):周期筑底 大珍破局
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-21 19:35
2025 年公司及时调整营销节奏,以去库出清为主。分省区看,主要省份贵州、河南、湖南、广东渠道 秩序相对保持稳定、动销降幅可控。分产品看,珍10 卡位宴席场景,仍有招商兑现;珍15 批价波动好 于行业整体水平,预计后续销售体量有望随场景修复;高档光瓶酒销售规模基本维持,团购培育模式日 臻成熟。 盈利预测与投资评级:1)大珍作为破局新品,低准入、高收益,并以持续分红机制提倡厂商长期合 作,招商汇量前景可期,有望带动公司成长弹性快速修复。2)国内高度白酒消费省区已明显染酱,酱 酒次高端需求具备扩容空间。对标浓香,酱酒品牌第二梯队(2~5 名)仍有较大份额集中度提升空间 (15% vs 35%)。横向对比其他酱酒,珍酒渠道管理稳扎稳打,圈层培育亦走在前列。我们亦看好珍 酒老品基本盘在后续周期复苏过程中率先实现份额突围。考虑大珍招商增量贡献,我们调整2025~2027 年公司non-IFRS 归母净利预测为12.7、16.1、19.7 亿元人民币(前值为12.3、13.7、16.8 亿元人民 币),对应non-IFRS PE 为24.8、19.6、16.0x,维持"买入"评级。 风险提示:宏观修复不及预期,次高端价格 ...
珍酒李渡(06979):周期筑底,大珍破局
Soochow Securities· 2025-08-21 12:31
证券研究报告·海外公司深度·食物饮品(HS) 珍酒李渡(06979.HK) 周期筑底,大珍破局 2025 年 08 月 21 日 买入(维持) | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 7,060 | 7,067 | 5,258 | 6,354 | 7,481 | | 同比(%) | 20.56 | 0.10 | (25.60) | 20.86 | 17.73 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 2,327 | 1,324 | 1,196 | 1,481 | 1,856 | | 同比(%) | 125.96 | (43.12) | (9.65) | 23.81 | 25.39 | | Non-IFRS 净利润(百万元) | 1,623 | 1,676 | 1,271 | 1,606 | 1,969 | | 同比(%) | 35.52 | 3.31 | (24.19) | 26.38 | 22.59 | | EPS-最新摊薄 ...
珍酒李渡(06979.HK):下行期攻坚克难 多举措积极应对
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-08 11:19
Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to high base effects, cyclical downturns, and impacts from Q2 market conditions [1] Revenue Summary - The company expects revenue for H1 2025 to be between 2.4 to 2.55 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year decline of 38.3% to 41.9% [1] - All sub-brands are estimated to face pressure, with the main brand, Zhenjiu, experiencing a decline consistent with the overall trend, while Lidu shows limited decline [1] Profit Summary - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2025 is between 570 to 580 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 23% to 24% [1] - The non-IFRS net profit is expected to be between 610 to 620 million RMB, indicating a decline of 39% to 40% [1] - The adjusted net profit margin is projected to remain stable at 24% to 25% [1] Market Strategy - The company is actively controlling shipment rhythms to help clear channels, with stable sales shares for key products in core markets [1] - The company is focusing on nurturing brand recognition and has positive progress in new product launches, which are expected to contribute to revenue in H2 2025 [1] Industry Context - The industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with the company adapting its strategy to address the pressures from declining business consumption and price reductions in premium liquor [1] - The company is shifting its customer base towards new quality-driven enterprises and is introducing high-quality products at competitive price points [1] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a potential recovery in revenue growth in H2 2025, following a concentrated clearing and product updates in 2025 [2] - The non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted to 1.23 billion, 1.37 billion, and 1.68 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a more cautious outlook [2]
珍酒李渡(06979):25H1业绩预告点评:下行期攻坚克难,多举措积极应对
Soochow Securities· 2025-08-07 04:02
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is facing significant revenue pressure in the first half of 2025, with expected revenue decline of 38.3% to 41.9% year-on-year, and net profit decline of 23% to 24% [7] - Despite the challenges, the company is actively managing its operations, maintaining a stable profit margin of 24% to 25% in the first half of 2025, indicating strong cost and expense control capabilities [7] - The company is focusing on clearing inventory and optimizing its distribution channels, with expectations for a more controlled revenue decline in the second half of 2025 as market conditions improve [7] - The company is adapting to industry pressures by shifting its customer base and product offerings, including the introduction of new products at competitive price points [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to be 7,060 million in 2023, with a slight increase to 7,067 million in 2024, followed by a significant drop to 5,026 million in 2025 [1] - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 2,327 million, decreasing to 1,324 million in 2024, and further to 1,158 million in 2025 [1] - Non-IFRS net profit is expected to be 1,623 million in 2023, with a decline to 1,676 million in 2024, and a drop to 1,233 million in 2025 [1] - The report adjusts the non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025 to 12.3 billion, 13.7 billion, and 16.8 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 7.38 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 22,749.82 million HKD [5] - The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.77 for the current price and latest diluted earnings per share (EPS) of 0.69 [1] - The company’s book value per share is 4.12, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 28.84% [6]
珍酒李渡(06979):报表释放压力,公司积极应对
HTSC· 2025-08-06 13:17
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to face a revenue decline of approximately 38.3% to 41.9% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, with a projected net profit decrease of 23% to 24% [1][2]. - The company is actively responding to external pressures by adjusting its payment and delivery schedules, focusing on channel health, and launching strategic flagship products [2][3]. - Despite the challenges, the company’s brand possesses unique characteristics and a diversified marketing system, which may support regional and capacity expansion [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company anticipates revenue between 24.0 to 25.5 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decline of 38.3% to 41.9% [1]. - The expected net profit attributable to the parent company is around 5.7 to 5.8 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 23% to 24% year-on-year [2]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to be approximately 6.1 to 6.2 billion RMB, indicating a decline of 39% to 40% [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is launching new strategic flagship products, including "珍 10" and "大珍·珍酒," to capture market share in both mid-range and high-end segments [3]. - Efforts are being made to solidify the competitive position of existing flagship products and enhance penetration in core markets [3]. - The company aims to tap into emerging consumer trends and scenarios, such as products for birthdays and weddings [3]. Future Outlook - The revenue forecast for 2025 to 2027 has been adjusted downwards by 27% across the board, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.34, 0.38, and 0.44 RMB for the respective years [4][12]. - The target price is set at 8.04 HKD, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 22x for 2025 [4][6]. - The company is expected to maintain a relatively stable net profit margin despite the adjustments, reflecting confidence in its core business profitability [12].