证券研究报告 工业/能源 霍尔木兹变局可能助推能源转型加速 华泰研究 2026 年 3 月 02 日│中国内地 动态点评 美国与以色列 2 月 28 日对伊朗发动联合军事打击，伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹 海峡，我们认为这将通过三种路径影响能源供给及价格：1）供应中断风险 （途径霍尔木兹海峡的原油、天然气规模较高）；2）航线绕行增加运输时 间和成本；3）市场预期放大价格波动幅度。我们认为此次事件也将提升全 球各国对于能源安全与自主的紧迫性认知，加速能源转型从而减少对于中东 油气进口的依赖。我们推测： • 发电对 LNG 进口依赖度高的国家短期将先增加煤炭采购以应急，并 快速部署光储系统（包括户用光储），推升煤化工用煤需求； • 中长期则需要走向风光储+核电、绿氢制甲醇的自主可控解决方案。 我们重申推荐电新和煤炭板块，看好宁德时代 A/H、阳光电源、亿纬锂能、 天赐材料、华明装备、特变电工、伊顿、福斯特、Enphase、中国神华 H。 冲突或带来能源供给受阻及价格高企，储能需求有望得到拉动 光储系统可快速部署解燃眉之急，能源价格高企更显经济性；且自主可控。 能源保供诉求下，冲突将拉动受影响地区需求（参照俄乌冲突后欧洲储 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the progress of the lithium battery material project by Chizhou Tianci High-tech Materials Co., Ltd., which is expanding its production capacity from 150,000 tons to 280,000 tons of lithium battery materials with a total investment of 300 million yuan [2] - The company forecasts a net profit of 1.1 billion to 1.6 billion yuan for the year 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 127.31% to 230.63% [2] - The significant increase in net profit for the fourth quarter is attributed to the rising demand in the new energy vehicle market and the rapid growth in the energy storage market, leading to a substantial increase in sales of lithium-ion battery materials [2] Group 2 - The lithium battery materials industry is expected to show signs of recovery in the second half of 2025, with the average price of electrolyte reaching 35,500 yuan per ton in the fourth quarter, marking a quarterly increase of 92.41% [3] - Several institutions have raised their profit forecasts for Tianci Materials for 2026, with East Wu Securities projecting a net profit of approximately 8.06 billion yuan, while other firms have similar estimates [3] - If the average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium continues to rise, some institutions estimate that the net profit attributable to shareholders for 2026 could reach 10.5 billion yuan [3]

Group 1 - EVE Energy has submitted an application for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CITIC Securities as the sole sponsor [4] - The fundraising purpose for EVE Energy has changed; the company now plans to use the net proceeds solely for the continued construction of its Hungarian production base and for working capital, excluding the previously planned Malaysian project [5] - New Energy's "Snow Leopard Battery" has been mass-produced and delivered in tens of thousands of units, featuring a range of over 100 kilometers on a single charge and high discharge capabilities [6][7] Group 2 - Reports indicate that the shortage of power batteries has eased, but energy storage batteries remain scarce, leading to price increases across the lithium battery industry [8] - Far East Battery announced a significant increase in contract orders, with a 556% year-on-year growth in December for contracts over 10 million yuan [9] - EVE Energy has signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement for a 20GWh energy storage battery project with Shanghai Shinyi Luoxi Energy Technology [10] Group 3 - Penghui Energy is advancing its listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its global strategy and financing capabilities [12][13] - Russia has launched its first GWh-level battery factory, with a planned total capacity of 4GWh, aimed at various applications including energy storage [14][15][16] - Haopeng Technology plans to raise up to 800 million yuan for energy storage and AI projects, focusing on high-growth applications [17] Group 4 - Shanghai Haixi Communications has signed a strategic cooperation agreement for a 60GWh energy storage project, aiming to enhance industry chain efficiency [18] - The Anhui 20GWh power battery project has commenced construction, with an investment of approximately 4.85 billion yuan [19] - BYD's new energy battery production base has completed the joint line ceremony for its second and third phases, with a total investment of about 110 billion yuan [20] Group 5 - A second meeting on the regulation of the power and energy storage battery industry was held, addressing issues of blind construction and price competition [21][22] - LG Energy's two battery factories have suspended production for six months, resulting in significant economic losses [23] - Ningfu New Energy reported a significant increase in shipments of large cylindrical batteries, exceeding 10GWh in 2025 [24] Group 6 - Guoxuan High-Tech has started two material projects, including a 200,000-ton lithium iron phosphate project, to enhance its production capabilities [25][26] - Chuangneng New Energy achieved a record shipment of over 90GWh in 2025, marking a 350% increase from the previous year [27][28] - A 4GWh energy storage battery project is being established in Hebei, with a total investment of 50 million yuan [29] Group 7 - Yijiatong is rapidly advancing its 4GWh industrial power lithium battery project, with significant progress reported [30][31] - A new lithium iron phosphate production line has been launched in Hubei, aimed at meeting high standards for material quality [33][34] - Longpan Technology is investing 2 billion yuan in a high-performance lithium battery project, with a planned capacity of 120,000 tons [35] Group 8 - ST Pava has terminated part of its fundraising projects, optimizing resource allocation in response to industry developments [36] - Lithium carbonate prices have surged, nearing 150,000 yuan per ton, with a year-to-date increase of over 21% [37][38] - Tianci Materials plans to conduct maintenance on its lithium hexafluorophosphate production line, expected to last 20 to 30 days [39][40] Group 9 - The State Council has issued a comprehensive solid waste management action plan, aiming for significant recycling targets by 2030 [41] - Tianci Materials has forecasted a substantial increase in net profit for 2025, driven by growth in the new energy vehicle and energy storage markets [43] - The lithium battery recycling project in Henan has been signed, with an expected annual output value of approximately 400 million yuan [54] Group 10 - BYD has surpassed Tesla in global electric vehicle sales for the first time, with a total of over 4.6 million new car sales in 2025 [57] - CATL and NIO have renewed a five-year cooperation agreement, focusing on technology and market collaboration [58][59] - Toyota and Lexus sold approximately 2.5 million vehicles in the U.S. in 2025, with nearly half being electrified models [60]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - The report anticipates a slight decline in actual GDP growth to approximately 4.5% year-on-year in Q4, with an annual growth rate of around 5% for the year [2] - Domestic demand is expected to remain weak, while export resilience is projected to continue, supported by reduced tariff disruptions and global cyclical improvements [2] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring fiscal expansion in Q1 of the current year to support the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2] Group 2: Fixed Income and Consumption Trends - High travel activity during the New Year period indicates strong consumer sentiment, with a notable recovery in inbound tourism and a narrowing decline in automotive consumption [3] - The real estate sector shows slight recovery in transaction heat, although year-on-year figures remain weaker than in the first three quarters of 2025 [3] - Industrial production indicators show a widening decline in freight volume, with most production rates remaining weak, particularly in the steel and chemical sectors [3] Group 3: Real Estate and REITs Development - The introduction of 30 REITs-related policies marks the official entry of C-REITs into a comprehensive development era for "infrastructure + commercial real estate" [4] - Commercial real estate REITs are expected to significantly enhance asset liquidity and facilitate value reassessment for related enterprises [4] - Companies deeply involved in commercial real estate and management services are likely to benefit from these developments [4] Group 4: ETF Market Trends - By the end of 2025, China's ETF market surpassed 6 trillion yuan, with stock ETFs dominating the market, reaching a total scale of 4.24 trillion yuan, a 42% increase [5] - There is a notable divergence in the performance of broad-based ETFs and thematic industry ETFs, with the latter experiencing continuous inflows [5] Group 5: Aerospace and Aviation Manufacturing - The report emphasizes that civil aviation will become a significant growth area for China's aerospace manufacturing, driven by the scaling up of C919 aircraft deliveries [6] - The development of domestic aviation materials is expected to lower procurement costs and enhance supply chain capabilities for airlines [6] Group 6: Investment Opportunities in Specific Companies - The report initiates coverage on Jizhi Technology (极智嘉-W) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of 36.39 HKD, highlighting its strong growth potential in the flexible warehousing sector [7] - Wanwu Xinxing (万物新生) is also rated "Buy" with a target price of 7.64 USD, recognized for its comprehensive integration in the second-hand recycling industry [10] - Huaming Equipment (华明装备) receives a "Buy" rating with a target price of 29.50 CNY, benefiting from global power grid investments and expected rapid growth in overseas markets [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent price increase of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and the underlying uncertainties in the supply chain, particularly regarding the transmission of lithium carbonate prices to battery manufacturers [2][3] - Two LFP companies confirmed price hikes for downstream customers, with one company indicating an increase of approximately 1500 to 2000 yuan/ton for major clients, while most other customers accepted a processing fee increase of 1000 yuan/ton [2] - The article discusses the significant fluctuations in lithium carbonate futures, with the main contract closing at 137,940 yuan/ton on January 6, indicating a need for better alignment between upstream procurement and downstream pricing mechanisms [3][4] Group 2 - The term "point pricing" has become prevalent in negotiations, where a pricing window is established for both parties to agree on a specific point in time to set the price based on futures contracts [4][5] - Material companies are pushing for a higher proportion of customer-supplied lithium carbonate and shifting the pricing anchor from spot prices to futures-linked pricing to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations [5] - Recent announcements from major companies indicate a simultaneous trend of production cuts and expansions, with several LFP manufacturers announcing reductions in production while also planning significant capacity expansions [9][10] Group 3 - Tianqi Lithium announced a reduction in its planned production of electrolyte and battery recycling projects due to changes in market conditions, adjusting its total investment to not exceed 600 million yuan [6][7] - The article notes that while short-term supply constraints and maintenance are occurring, there are also long-term capacity expansion plans in the pipeline, indicating a complex market dynamic [8] - The simultaneous occurrence of production cuts and expansion plans raises questions about whether price increases can translate into profit recovery, emphasizing the importance of navigating price risks and ensuring that processing fees are elevated before new capacities come online [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Tianqi Materials, announced plans for maintenance and adjustments to its production capacity, which are expected to have minimal impact on its operations [1][2]. Group 1: Production Maintenance - Tianqi Materials plans to halt production at its Longshan North base, which has an annual capacity of 150,000 tons of liquid hexafluorophosphate lithium, starting from March 1, 2026, for maintenance lasting 20 to 30 days [1]. - The company has completed the necessary approval procedures and material preparations for the maintenance, indicating that it anticipates no significant impact on its business operations [2]. Group 2: Project Adjustments - The company intends to change the construction details and investment amount for its lithium battery electrolyte project, reducing the planned capacity from 300,000 tons to 250,000 tons, while also canceling the 100,000-ton battery recycling project [4][5]. - The total investment for the adjusted project will not exceed 600 million yuan, with the construction period estimated at 20 months [7]. - Upon reaching full production, the project is expected to generate an average annual revenue of 3.67 billion yuan and an average annual net profit of 180 million yuan [7].

Core Viewpoint - The strong earnings realization capability of Tianqi Materials has significantly boosted growth confidence among sell-side analysts, with 2026 profit expectations raised from approximately 5.1 billion yuan to around 8 billion yuan, and some institutions projecting profits exceeding 10 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - The company expects a net profit of 1.1 billion to 1.6 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 127.31% to 230.63% [1] - The median forecast for Q4 2025 net profit is 929 million yuan, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth exceeding 500% [1] - Sell-side analysts have raised their profit expectations for 2026 to between 8 billion and 10.5 billion yuan following the earnings forecast release [8][9] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The lithium battery materials sector is expected to experience a "drop and then rise" trend in 2025, with significant price increases in key materials like lithium hexafluorophosphate and vinyl carbonate [4] - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate surged from 61,000 yuan per ton at the end of September 2025 to 180,000 yuan per ton by year-end, marking a 195% increase in Q4 [4] - The average price of electrolytes in Q4 2025 was 35,500 yuan per ton, with a quarterly increase of 92.41% [7] Group 3: Profit Margin Recovery - The rebound in product prices has led to a significant recovery in the profit margins of Tianqi Materials' main business, with expected net profit per ton of electrolyte increasing from 800 yuan to 4,000 yuan [8] - Historical data shows that Tianqi Materials' net profits for the first three quarters of 2025 were 150 million, 118 million, and 153 million yuan, respectively, with Q4 profits projected to reach 929 million yuan [8] Group 4: Stock Price and Valuation - Sell-side analysts have set target prices for Tianqi Materials above 50 yuan, with the highest target reaching 79.2 yuan per share, indicating a potential upside of nearly 65% from the latest price of 48.04 yuan [11] - Despite a 136.25% increase in stock price in 2025, Tianqi Materials' performance lagged behind smaller companies in the sector, which saw annual increases of around 400% [11] - If the company achieves the projected net profit of 8 billion yuan in 2026, earnings per share could rise to approximately 3.96 yuan, suggesting a potential recovery in stock price towards previous cycle highs [12]

Group 1 - The chemical sector continues its recent upward trend, with lithium carbonate prices rising, leading to a 3.14% increase in the Tianhong Chemical ETF (159133), which has gained over 17% since December 17 of the previous year, reaching a new high since its listing [1] - Several companies, including Hunan Youneng, Wanrun New Energy, and Defang Nano, have announced production halts for maintenance in January, while Tianqi Lithium plans to halt its 150,000-ton liquid hexafluorophosphate lithium production line starting March 1 for 20 to 30 days, which is expected to reduce supply and boost product prices [1] - The market price for battery-grade lithium carbonate is currently between 131,000 and 133,500 yuan per ton, an increase of 7,900 yuan from the previous working day, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate has risen by 8,700 yuan [1] Group 2 - The Tianhong Chemical ETF (159133) tracks a segmented chemical index, with over 93% of its holdings in basic chemicals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and electric equipment, covering the entire chemical industry chain and including both leading companies and quality small and medium enterprises [2] - According to Industrial Securities, the chemical industry is expected to experience a dual opportunity for cyclical recovery and industrial upgrading by 2026, with traditional demand expected to recover moderately due to domestic growth policies and the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle [2]

Group 1 - Lichong Group expects a net profit of 830 million to 870 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.38% to 23.04% [1] - Shandong Zhanggu anticipates a net profit of 72 million to 80 million yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 0.65% to 11.83% [2] - Yinglian Co. forecasts a net profit of 32 million to 42 million yuan for 2025, marking a turnaround from a loss of 39.67 million yuan in the previous year [3] Group 2 - Hangya Technology announces plans for shareholders to reduce their holdings by up to 2.76% of the company's shares [4] - Guizhou Tire plans to invest in a project in Morocco to produce 6 million semi-steel radial tires annually, with a total investment of 299 million USD [5] - Laisentongling's shareholder plans to reduce their stake by no more than 1% [6] Group 3 - ST Yifei's shareholder intends to reduce their holdings by up to 1.53% [7] - Hengyi Petrochemical has fully launched the second phase of its Brunei refining project, aiming for a production capacity of 12 million tons per year [8] - Zai Sheng Technology's controlling shareholder has terminated an agreement to transfer part of the company's shares [9] Group 4 - Sry New Materials proposes a cash dividend of 0.4 yuan per 10 shares for the first three quarters of 2025 [10] - Quanyin High-Tech announces that the offer period for China Seed Group's acquisition has expired, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock [11] - Zhonggang Luonai's shareholder plans to reduce their stake by up to 1% [12] Group 5 - Nanmo Bio expects to receive a government subsidy of 5.8 million yuan for its subsidiary [13] - Beite Technology has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for a stock issuance to specific investors [14] - Qianyuan Pharmaceutical's subsidiary has obtained drug registration certificates for a new medication [15] Group 6 - Boto Integrated plans to reduce its holdings by no more than 1% [16] - Wanze Co. intends to reduce its stake by up to 1.66% [17] - Tianci Materials will halt production for maintenance on its lithium hexafluorophosphate production line starting March 1, 2026 [18] Group 7 - Haopeng Technology plans to raise up to 800 million yuan through a private placement [20] - Yisheng Co. reports a 43.32% year-on-year increase in sales revenue for its white feather broiler chicks in December 2025 [21] - Jinyu Medical proposes a cash dividend of 8.8 yuan per 10 shares for the first three quarters of 2025 [22] Group 8 - Caesar Travel's subsidiary has won a management service project for the Qingdao International Cruise Port [23] - Kelun Pharmaceutical plans to repurchase shares worth 50 million to 100 million yuan [24] - Jiangling Motors reports a 10.56% year-on-year increase in cumulative sales for 2025 [25] Group 9 - Yilian Technology plans to issue convertible bonds to raise up to 1.2 billion yuan [26] - Shaanxi Guotou A intends to participate in a capital increase for Chang'an Bank, with an amount not exceeding 800 million yuan [27] - Oupokang Vision has obtained a production license for eye drops [28] Group 10 - Shanghai Electric plans to provide management services for overseas assets of China Electric International [30] - Yingfang Micro is planning a major asset restructuring, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock [31] - Victory Energy's stock will resume trading after completing a verification process [32] Group 11 - China Merchants Industry has signed a shipbuilding agreement with Dalian Shipbuilding [33] - Kunyu Group has appointed a new chairman following a board meeting [34] - Microchip Bio's clinical trial application for a new diabetes treatment has been accepted [35] Group 12 - Hanshuo Technology has signed a sales intention agreement for smart shopping carts with Woolworths in Australia [36] - Zhongmin Energy's three photovoltaic power station projects have been included in the Fujian Province development list [37] - Penghui Energy plans to issue H-shares and apply for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [38] Group 13 - Victory Energy reports that the acquirer has deposited a guarantee for the acquisition [39] - Fangsheng Pharmaceutical proposes a special dividend of 0.15 yuan per share for 2025 [40] - Nanning Department Store has received approximately 14.28 million yuan in government subsidies since January 2025 [41] Group 14 - Jushen Co. has signed a bauxite transfer agreement with a company in Guinea [42] - ST Huluwawa has received a drug registration certificate for a new inhalation solution [43] - Zhongzhi Co. will become the controlling shareholder following a share transfer agreement [44] Group 15 - Chuangli Group has signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Chuanjiu Construction [45]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, with a battle between the burden of real - world pressure and the narrative of cycle transformation [2][4]. - Stainless steel is dragged down by the real - world fundamentals, and the trading on the disk mainly focuses on Indonesia's policies [2][4]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to shift upwards due to concerns about supply contraction and positive demand expectations [2][8]. - Industrial silicon shows a weak fundamental pattern [2]. - Polysilicon will oscillate at a high level, and investors should pay attention to the impact of news [2][11]. 3. Summaries according to Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 134,100 yuan, and the trading volume was 366,893 lots. For the stainless - steel main contract, the closing price was 13,075 yuan, and the trading volume was 175,949 lots. There were also detailed data on various nickel - related products such as 1 imported nickel, Russian nickel premium, etc. [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, and plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities. The 2026 nickel ore production target is to be significantly reduced. There are also issues such as steel product export license management in China and Indonesian mining companies' illegal occupation of forest land [4][5][7] - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [7] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 127,000 yuan, and the trading volume was 2,806 lots. There were also data on the 2605 contract, basis, raw materials, lithium salts, and related products in the lithium - battery industry chain [8] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased. The State Council issued a solid - waste management plan, and Tianci Materials announced a production - line maintenance plan [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: For the industrial silicon Si2605 contract, the closing price was 8,730 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 271,132 lots. For the polysilicon PS2605 contract, the closing price was 58,645 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 17,155 lots. There were also data on futures market spreads, basis, inventory, raw material costs, etc. [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: Anhui Hefei issued a notice to encourage distributed photovoltaic power generation projects to improve local consumption capacity [12] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of both industrial silicon and polysilicon are - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [13]