● 本报记者 葛瑶 不过，AI行业当前是否存在泡沫，市场意见并不一致。一些分析师认为，AI投资仍处于中期，长期潜 力强劲。还有机构认为，市场此前对其盈利兑现速度抱有较高预期，短期回调更多反映预期修正。 东吴证券海外策略首席分析师陈梦表示，2026年美股科技泡沫最大的风险或是宏观和政治周期，而不是 股票基本面。结合泡沫生命周期指标，2026年泡沫似乎还有空间，但刺破泡沫的"针"或取决于美联储的 降息路径。 港股AI企业投入稳健 高盛、摩根士丹利等华尔街投行高管曾在11月初发出预警。高盛CEO大卫·所罗门（David Solomon）表 示，美股可能在未来12至24个月内出现10%至20%的回调。摩根士丹利CEO泰德·皮克（Ted Peak）也 称，市场应"欢迎"10%到15%的回撤。 市场下跌的另一诱因源于对科技股基本面的质疑，其中最受关注的声音来自"大空头"迈克尔·伯里 （Michael Burry）。伯里在社交媒体上发布多张资本支出与科技行业股价周期的对比图，再度警告AI或 存在泡沫。他的批评聚焦于"超大规模数据中心运营商"（hyperscalers）身上。他认为，这些公司通过延 长计算机设备的使用寿命来减 ...

Core Insights - Tencent Holdings reported Q3 2025 revenue of 192.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations by 2.15% [1] - Non-IFRS operating profit reached 72.6 billion yuan, surpassing consensus by 0.58%, with an operating margin of 37.6%, slightly below the expected 38.2% due to higher sales and R&D expenses [1] - Non-IFRS net profit was 70.6 billion yuan, exceeding consensus by 6.84%, with a net profit margin of 36.6%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [1] Gaming Segment - Gaming revenue for Q3 2025 was 63.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, exceeding consensus by 5.21% [1] - Domestic gaming revenue was 42.8 billion yuan, up 14.7% year-on-year, surpassing expectations by 1.26%, with the game "Delta Force" ranking third in the domestic industry [1] - Overseas gaming revenue reached 20.8 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 43.4%, exceeding expectations by 14.8%, driven by revenue growth from Supercell and new game studio acquisitions [1] Advertising and Enterprise Services - Marketing services revenue for Q3 2025 was 36.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%, exceeding consensus by 1.81% [2] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue was 58.2 billion yuan, up 9.6% year-on-year, slightly above expectations by 0.07% [2] - Capital expenditures were 13 billion yuan, down 24% year-on-year, significantly below expectations by 43.9%, primarily due to supply chain impacts [2] Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company has a robust pipeline of new games, with an increasing share of PC and overseas game revenue expected to improve gross margins [3] - Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised to 265.8 billion, 298.4 billion, and 335.1 billion yuan, reflecting increases of 4.0%, 3.5%, and 4.0% respectively [3] - The target price has been adjusted to 741 HKD, with a "buy" rating maintained, supported by stable growth in core business segments [3]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings reported strong Q3 2025 earnings, with revenue and profit exceeding market expectations, driven by robust performance in gaming and advertising sectors [4][5][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Tencent achieved operating revenue of 192.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%, surpassing Bloomberg consensus expectations by 2.15% [4]. - Non-IFRS operating profit reached 72.6 billion yuan, exceeding consensus by 0.58%, with an operating margin of 37.6%, slightly below the expected 38.2% due to higher sales and R&D expenses [4]. - Non-IFRS net profit was 70.6 billion yuan, exceeding consensus by 6.84%, with a net profit margin of 36.6%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.8 percentage points [4]. Group 2: Gaming Sector - Tencent's gaming revenue for Q3 2025 was 63.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, significantly exceeding consensus expectations by 5.21% [5]. - Domestic gaming revenue was 42.8 billion yuan, up 14.7% year-on-year, with the game "Delta Force" ranking third in the domestic industry, and daily active users (DAU) increasing from 20 million to 30 million [5]. - Overseas gaming revenue reached 20.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.4%, greatly surpassing expectations by 14.8%, driven by growth from Supercell and new game studio acquisitions [5]. Group 3: Advertising and Enterprise Services - Marketing services revenue was 36.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%, exceeding consensus expectations by 1.81%, supported by improved ad loading rates and AI-driven ROI enhancements [6]. - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue was 58.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, also surpassing expectations by 0.07% [7]. Group 4: Capital Expenditure and AI Strategy - Capital expenditure for Q3 2025 was 13 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 24%, falling short of expectations by 43.9%, primarily due to supply chain issues [8]. - The company increased its investment in AI research and development, with R&D expenses reaching a record high for a single quarter, focusing on AI Agent integration with its social ecosystem [8].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings (00700) reported Q3 2025 revenue of 192.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%, exceeding market consensus by 2.15% [1][2] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating and raises the target price to 741 HKD, supported by strong game pipeline and AI-driven efficiency improvements [1][4] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 Non-IFRS operating profit reached 72.6 billion yuan, surpassing consensus by 0.58%, with an operating margin of 37.6%, slightly below the expected 38.2% due to higher sales and R&D expenses [2][3] - Non-IFRS net profit was 70.6 billion yuan, exceeding consensus by 6.84%, with a net profit margin of 36.6%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [2] Gaming Segment - Total gaming revenue for Q3 2025 was 63.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, exceeding consensus by 5.21% [2][3] - Domestic game revenue was 42.8 billion yuan, up 14.7% year-on-year, with the game "Delta Operation" ranking third in the domestic industry, showing significant user growth [2] - Overseas game revenue reached 20.8 billion yuan, a substantial year-on-year increase of 43.4%, driven by new acquisitions and record user engagement in existing titles [3] Advertising and Enterprise Services - Marketing services revenue for Q3 2025 was 36.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%, exceeding consensus by 1.81% [3] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue was 58.2 billion yuan, up 9.6% year-on-year, slightly above consensus by 0.07% [3] Capital Expenditure and R&D - Capital expenditure for Q3 2025 was 13 billion yuan, down 24% year-on-year, below expectations by 43.9%, primarily due to supply chain issues [3] - R&D expenses reached a record high for a single quarter, focusing on AI development and enhancing operational efficiency [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company raised its Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 265.8 billion, 298.4 billion, and 335.1 billion yuan, reflecting increases of 4.0%, 3.5%, and 4.0% respectively [4] - The current price corresponds to a PE ratio of 21x/19x/17x for 2025-2027, indicating attractive valuation based on stable business growth [4]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings (00700) reported Q3 2025 revenue of 192.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%, exceeding market consensus by 2.15% [1][2] Financial Performance - Non-IFRS operating profit reached 72.6 billion yuan, surpassing consensus by 0.58%, with an operating margin of 37.6%, slightly below the expected 38.2% due to higher sales and R&D expenses [2] - Non-IFRS net profit was 70.6 billion yuan, exceeding consensus by 6.84%, with a net profit margin of 36.6%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [2] Gaming Segment - Total gaming revenue for Q3 2025 was 63.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, exceeding consensus by 5.21% [3] - Domestic gaming revenue was 42.8 billion yuan, up 14.7% year-on-year, surpassing expectations by 1.26% [3] - Overseas gaming revenue reached 20.8 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 43.4%, exceeding expectations by 14.8% [3] Advertising and Enterprise Services - Marketing services revenue was 36.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%, exceeding consensus by 1.81% [3] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue was 58.2 billion yuan, up 9.6% year-on-year, slightly above expectations by 0.07% [3] Capital Expenditure and R&D - Capital expenditure for Q3 2025 was 13 billion yuan, down 24% year-on-year, below expectations by 43.9% [3] - R&D expenses reached a record high for a single quarter, focusing on AI development and enhancing operational efficiency [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company raised its Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 265.8 billion, 298.4 billion, and 335.1 billion yuan, reflecting increases of 4.0%, 3.5%, and 4.0% respectively [4] - The target price for the stock was raised to 741 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on solid business growth and favorable valuation [4]

Core Insights - Tencent reported Q3 2025 revenue of 192.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15% [1] - The ToB (Technology to Business) segment, which includes financial technology and enterprise services, showed strong performance with a 10% year-on-year growth, reaching 58.2 billion yuan [1] - Tencent's AI strategy has yielded significant results, with its mixed Yuan image 3.0 ranking first in the LMArena evaluation for text-to-image generation [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was 192.87 billion yuan, reflecting a 15% increase compared to the previous year [1] - ToB business revenue reached 58.2 billion yuan, marking a 10% year-on-year growth [1] - R&D investment for the quarter increased by 28% to 22.8 billion yuan, setting a new record for a single quarter [1] AI and Technological Advancements - Tencent's mixed Yuan image 3.0 demonstrated strong reasoning and generation capabilities, achieving top rankings in international evaluations [1] - The upgraded mixed Yuan 3D model improved modeling accuracy by three times, with geometric resolution reaching 1536³ [1] - Tencent's AI initiatives have significantly enhanced user engagement across various internal applications, including WeChat and Tencent Meeting [1] Patent and Innovation - As of the end of the quarter, Tencent had over 91,000 patent applications published globally, with more than 50,000 patents granted [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the Hong Kong stock market, particularly the Hang Seng Index and technology stocks, is driven by long-term capital inflows rather than short-term speculation, with significant foreign investment activity noted during the A-share market's closure [3][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index surpassed the 27,000-point mark, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising by 3.54% and notable gains in stocks like SMIC, which surged by 12.7% in a single day [1][3]. - Foreign capital inflows into the Chinese stock market reached $1 billion in August, while a total of $17 billion was withdrawn in 2024, indicating a substantial potential for recovery as global funds remain underweight in Chinese equities by 1.3 percentage points [3][10]. Group 2: Sector Highlights - The technology sector is leading the market rally, with Alibaba's stock increasing by 125% year-to-date and Tencent reaching a four-and-a-half-year high. Morgan Stanley has raised Alibaba's target price to HKD 240 [3]. - The semiconductor sector is experiencing a boom, driven by a surge in demand for storage chips due to global AI server needs. SMIC's current dynamic P/E ratio is approximately 35, lower than TSMC's 42 [5]. - The metals and resources sector is also performing well, with copper prices exceeding $10,500 per ton and gold reaching a historical high of $3,895 per ounce. Supply constraints are contributing to this price increase [6]. Group 3: Historical Trends and Investor Sentiment - Historical data indicates a 60% probability of A-shares rising in the five trading days following the National Day holiday, with this probability increasing to 66.67% during bull market years [8]. - A survey revealed that 65.38% of private equity firms opted for heavy or full positions during the holiday, while only 5.77% maintained light positions. Notably, there was a net inflow of 1.86 billion yuan on the first trading day after the holiday [8]. Group 4: Global Economic Context - The primary driver of the current market rally is the global liquidity environment, with a 100% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October and an 88% chance of another cut in December, leading to increased capital flows into emerging markets [3][10]. - The rotation among sectors is systematic, with AI computing and innovative pharmaceuticals leading in July and August, followed by new energy and storage chips in September, and now a surge in resource stocks in October [10].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a buy rating for Tencent, highlighting the company's significant cost advantages in AI infrastructure and projecting revenue and earnings growth through 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: AI Infrastructure and Cost Efficiency - Tencent demonstrates significant cost advantages in AI infrastructure by utilizing dynamic model routing to lower inference costs, transitioning from deep inference models to Turbo and refined models [5]. - The majority of queries in Tencent's search business are now processed through the Turbo model, which can also operate on the more cost-effective refined model [5]. - Management expresses confidence in chip supply, stating that internal demand for computing power is sufficient and that the company can utilize domestic chips for inference [6][7]. Group 2: Mixed-Mode Model Development - Tencent's self-developed mixed-mode 3D model ranks highly on the Hugging Face platform, focusing on training from text-based models to multi-modal and physical world applications [9]. - AI technology has improved efficiency in key areas, such as increasing click-through rates in advertising and accelerating content generation in game development [10]. Group 3: Integration of AI into WeChat Ecosystem - The company plans to cautiously integrate AI into the WeChat ecosystem, prioritizing user experience and security, reflecting Tencent's commitment to the stability of its super app ecosystem [11]. Group 4: AI-Driven Content Production in Gaming - AI has significantly enhanced content production efficiency in game development, with automated code generation speeding up prototype development while still requiring manual debugging [12]. - The domestic gaming market has a substantial user base, with potential to convert mini-game users into application game users [12]. - Tencent aims to leverage its strong PC platform fan base and dedicated mobile esports events to extend the lifecycle of games like "Valorant" [12]. Group 5: Advertising Growth through AI Upgrades - Tencent has upgraded its advertising base model to improve conversion rates, focusing on content consumption and commercial behavior analysis [16]. - AI-driven advertising technology upgrades are expected to enhance click-through rates across Tencent's ad inventory, offsetting depreciation impacts related to AI [17]. - The company anticipates that AI will create monetizable intent recommendation and agent prompt features in the long term [18]. Group 6: Cloud Business and Revenue Growth - Tencent is shifting towards value-added software and inference efficiency in its cloud business, with healthy profit margins in the domestic market [19]. - The unique WeChat ecosystem and global gaming assets, combined with multiple monetization levers, position Tencent for compound revenue growth amid macroeconomic cycles [20].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent demonstrates significant cost advantages in AI infrastructure, with AI technology deeply integrated into its ecosystem, driving growth across various business lines, including gaming, advertising, and cloud services [1][3][15] AI Infrastructure and Cost Efficiency - Tencent showcases a notable cost advantage in AI infrastructure through dynamic model routing, which reduces inference costs by directing queries to different cost-tiered models [4] - The majority of search queries are now processed using the Turbo model, which can also operate on a lower-cost refined model, enhancing long-term cost efficiency [4] AI Technology Integration - AI technology is set to be deeply integrated into the WeChat ecosystem, enhancing game development efficiency, improving advertising conversion rates, and driving high-quality growth in cloud services [3][10] - The company plans a cautious integration of AI into WeChat, prioritizing user experience and security [10] Game Development and User Engagement - AI significantly boosts content production efficiency in game development, with potential for faster prototype development and improved user experience through AI-enhanced virtual teammates [11] - The domestic gaming market has a substantial user base, with opportunities to convert mini-game users into application game users [11] Advertising Growth through AI - Recent upgrades to the advertising model have improved conversion rates by analyzing content consumption and commercial behavior [12][13] - AI-driven advertising technology is expected to enhance click-through rates across multiple ad inventories, offsetting depreciation impacts [13] Cloud Business and Revenue Growth - Tencent is shifting towards value-added software and inference efficiency in its cloud business, with healthy profit margins in the domestic market [14] - The company anticipates further acceleration in revenue growth based on computing capacity [14] Long-term Growth Potential - High expectations for revenue and earnings per share growth by 2025, with projected increases of 13% and 18% respectively [3] - Tencent's unique WeChat ecosystem and global gaming assets, combined with multiple monetization levers, position the company for compound revenue growth amid macroeconomic cycles [15]

Group 1 - AI technology continues to drive the development of the electronics and semiconductor industries, with Tencent leveraging AI to enhance its WeChat, gaming, and advertising businesses, resulting in significant user growth and revenue increase [1] - Nvidia is making progress on its next-generation AI chip, Rubin, which is set to launch in 2026, utilizing TSMC's 3nm process and HBM4 memory [1] - In the PCB sector, CoWoP technology is expected to replace traditional packaging solutions with lower costs and higher efficiency, boosting demand for high-end PCBs [1] Group 2 - Apple is intensifying its efforts in AI by developing robotic arms, home security systems, and an upgraded conversational Siri [1] - Meta plans to launch a thousand-yuan smart glasses, Celeste, to build an AR hardware and metaverse ecosystem [1] - BOE has surpassed Samsung Display in the foldable OLED screen market, becoming the industry leader, while TCL Technology's semiconductor display business saw a net profit increase of over 70% year-on-year in the first half of the year [1] Group 3 - The Guotai Science and Technology Chip ETF (589100) tracks the Science and Technology Chip Index (000685), which can experience daily fluctuations of up to 20% [1] - The index covers the entire semiconductor industry chain, including materials, design, manufacturing, and packaging testing, with constituent stocks primarily from the Science and Technology Innovation Board [1] - The Science and Technology Chip Index focuses on technology-intensive sectors, showcasing high growth potential and strong R&D investment, reflecting the overall performance and development potential of China's semiconductor industry [1]