老铁们，A股还在休市，港股已经杀疯了！ 10月2日，恒生指数一举突破27000点大关，恒生科技指数狂拉3.54%，中芯国际单日暴涨12.7%，黄金、锂电板 块集体飙涨——这波"假期嗨翻天"的行情，是不是让你心里直打鼓：会不会又是外资挖坑，等A股开盘就套人？ 但猎人可以肯定地说，这次剧本真的换了！ 这轮行情的核心驱动力是"全球水牛"。 美联储降息导致美元流动性溢出，新兴市场成为蓄水池。 南向资金已连续增持腾讯，持股占比达11.03%；高盛、富 达国际等机构明确"超配中国科技股"，摩根士丹利将MSCI新兴市场指数目标上调，其中中国资产贡献超60%的上涨空间。 板块轮动并非杂乱无章：7-8月AI算力、创新药先涨，9月新能源、存储芯片跟进，10月有色资源爆发。 这是典型牛市中的"主线轮动"，而非热点散乱。 计 算机、美容护理、环保等行业节后涨幅中位数居前，消费、高β和成长板块在港股假期上涨概率达80%。 港股的盘面就是节后A股的预演。 半导体板块中，中芯国际单日暴涨12%，华虹半导体涨7.12%，背后是全球AI服务器拉动的存储芯片需求爆发。 美光科技 宣布存储产品涨价20?0%，三星计划第四季度DRAM价格上调15? ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a buy rating for Tencent, highlighting the company's significant cost advantages in AI infrastructure and projecting revenue and earnings growth through 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: AI Infrastructure and Cost Efficiency - Tencent demonstrates significant cost advantages in AI infrastructure by utilizing dynamic model routing to lower inference costs, transitioning from deep inference models to Turbo and refined models [5]. - The majority of queries in Tencent's search business are now processed through the Turbo model, which can also operate on the more cost-effective refined model [5]. - Management expresses confidence in chip supply, stating that internal demand for computing power is sufficient and that the company can utilize domestic chips for inference [6][7]. Group 2: Mixed-Mode Model Development - Tencent's self-developed mixed-mode 3D model ranks highly on the Hugging Face platform, focusing on training from text-based models to multi-modal and physical world applications [9]. - AI technology has improved efficiency in key areas, such as increasing click-through rates in advertising and accelerating content generation in game development [10]. Group 3: Integration of AI into WeChat Ecosystem - The company plans to cautiously integrate AI into the WeChat ecosystem, prioritizing user experience and security, reflecting Tencent's commitment to the stability of its super app ecosystem [11]. Group 4: AI-Driven Content Production in Gaming - AI has significantly enhanced content production efficiency in game development, with automated code generation speeding up prototype development while still requiring manual debugging [12]. - The domestic gaming market has a substantial user base, with potential to convert mini-game users into application game users [12]. - Tencent aims to leverage its strong PC platform fan base and dedicated mobile esports events to extend the lifecycle of games like "Valorant" [12]. Group 5: Advertising Growth through AI Upgrades - Tencent has upgraded its advertising base model to improve conversion rates, focusing on content consumption and commercial behavior analysis [16]. - AI-driven advertising technology upgrades are expected to enhance click-through rates across Tencent's ad inventory, offsetting depreciation impacts related to AI [17]. - The company anticipates that AI will create monetizable intent recommendation and agent prompt features in the long term [18]. Group 6: Cloud Business and Revenue Growth - Tencent is shifting towards value-added software and inference efficiency in its cloud business, with healthy profit margins in the domestic market [19]. - The unique WeChat ecosystem and global gaming assets, combined with multiple monetization levers, position Tencent for compound revenue growth amid macroeconomic cycles [20].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent demonstrates significant cost advantages in AI infrastructure, with AI technology deeply integrated into its ecosystem, driving growth across various business lines, including gaming, advertising, and cloud services [1][3][15] AI Infrastructure and Cost Efficiency - Tencent showcases a notable cost advantage in AI infrastructure through dynamic model routing, which reduces inference costs by directing queries to different cost-tiered models [4] - The majority of search queries are now processed using the Turbo model, which can also operate on a lower-cost refined model, enhancing long-term cost efficiency [4] AI Technology Integration - AI technology is set to be deeply integrated into the WeChat ecosystem, enhancing game development efficiency, improving advertising conversion rates, and driving high-quality growth in cloud services [3][10] - The company plans a cautious integration of AI into WeChat, prioritizing user experience and security [10] Game Development and User Engagement - AI significantly boosts content production efficiency in game development, with potential for faster prototype development and improved user experience through AI-enhanced virtual teammates [11] - The domestic gaming market has a substantial user base, with opportunities to convert mini-game users into application game users [11] Advertising Growth through AI - Recent upgrades to the advertising model have improved conversion rates by analyzing content consumption and commercial behavior [12][13] - AI-driven advertising technology is expected to enhance click-through rates across multiple ad inventories, offsetting depreciation impacts [13] Cloud Business and Revenue Growth - Tencent is shifting towards value-added software and inference efficiency in its cloud business, with healthy profit margins in the domestic market [14] - The company anticipates further acceleration in revenue growth based on computing capacity [14] Long-term Growth Potential - High expectations for revenue and earnings per share growth by 2025, with projected increases of 13% and 18% respectively [3] - Tencent's unique WeChat ecosystem and global gaming assets, combined with multiple monetization levers, position the company for compound revenue growth amid macroeconomic cycles [15]

Group 1 - AI technology continues to drive the development of the electronics and semiconductor industries, with Tencent leveraging AI to enhance its WeChat, gaming, and advertising businesses, resulting in significant user growth and revenue increase [1] - Nvidia is making progress on its next-generation AI chip, Rubin, which is set to launch in 2026, utilizing TSMC's 3nm process and HBM4 memory [1] - In the PCB sector, CoWoP technology is expected to replace traditional packaging solutions with lower costs and higher efficiency, boosting demand for high-end PCBs [1] Group 2 - Apple is intensifying its efforts in AI by developing robotic arms, home security systems, and an upgraded conversational Siri [1] - Meta plans to launch a thousand-yuan smart glasses, Celeste, to build an AR hardware and metaverse ecosystem [1] - BOE has surpassed Samsung Display in the foldable OLED screen market, becoming the industry leader, while TCL Technology's semiconductor display business saw a net profit increase of over 70% year-on-year in the first half of the year [1] Group 3 - The Guotai Science and Technology Chip ETF (589100) tracks the Science and Technology Chip Index (000685), which can experience daily fluctuations of up to 20% [1] - The index covers the entire semiconductor industry chain, including materials, design, manufacturing, and packaging testing, with constituent stocks primarily from the Science and Technology Innovation Board [1] - The Science and Technology Chip Index focuses on technology-intensive sectors, showcasing high growth potential and strong R&D investment, reflecting the overall performance and development potential of China's semiconductor industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings demonstrated robust growth in Q2 2025, with double-digit year-on-year increases in revenue and profit across key metrics, driven by strong performance in gaming, marketing services, fintech, and enterprise services [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue reached 184.5 billion yuan, a 15% year-on-year increase, with gross margin improving from 53% to 57% due to higher contributions from high-margin businesses and cost efficiency [1]. - Non-IFRS operating profit rose to 69.25 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year, with core profit growth reaching 20% after excluding joint venture impacts [1]. - Non-IFRS net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 10% to 63.05 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations [1]. Group 2: Business Segments - The value-added services segment generated 91.37 billion yuan, a 16% year-on-year increase, accounting for 50% of total revenue, with domestic game revenue at 40.4 billion yuan, up 17% [1]. - International game revenue grew by 35% year-on-year, driven by strong performance from titles like "Clash Royale" and "PUBG MOBILE" [1]. - Marketing services revenue reached 35.76 billion yuan, a 20% year-on-year increase, benefiting from AI-driven advertising efficiency improvements [2]. Group 3: User Engagement and AI Integration - Monthly active users for WeChat and WeChat combined reached 1.411 billion, a 3% year-on-year increase, while QQ mobile MAUs were 532 million, showing high user engagement [3]. - The company invested 19.107 billion yuan in capital expenditures, primarily focused on AI-related business development [3]. - AI technology is deeply integrated across various business lines, enhancing user experience and driving growth in gaming, advertising, and enterprise services [3]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - The strong performance in Q2 2025 reflects the deep empowerment of AI technology across business lines, with expectations for continued growth driven by new game launches and consumption recovery [3]. - The company is projected to have a target price of 699.1 HKD, with estimated PE ratios of 23.6x and 20.7x for 2025 and 2026, respectively, indicating a potential upside of 19.3% from recent closing prices [3].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings reported strong Q2 2025 results, with revenue of 184.5 billion yuan, a 15% year-on-year increase, driven by robust performance in gaming and advertising sectors [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q2 2025 operating profit reached 69.25 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year, while adjusted net profit was 63.05 billion yuan, a 10% increase [1] - Adjusted net profit, excluding contributions from joint ventures, grew 20% year-on-year to 56.8 billion yuan, indicating sustained profitability [1] - Gross margin improved to 57%, up 3.7 percentage points year-on-year and 1.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2: Gaming Business - Tencent's gaming revenue in Q2 2025 increased by 16% year-on-year to 91.4 billion yuan, with domestic game revenue rising 17% to 40.4 billion yuan, largely due to the success of the new game "Delta Action" [1] - International gaming revenue surged 35% year-on-year to 18.8 billion yuan, driven by growth from Supercell games and "PUBG MOBILE" [1] Group 3: Advertising Business - Advertising revenue grew 20% year-on-year to 35.8 billion yuan, benefiting from upgraded advertising models and increased AI applications in ad creation and targeting [2] - The gross margin for advertising improved from 56% to 58% year-on-year, reflecting enhanced profitability in this segment [2] Group 4: Enterprise Services - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue rose 10% year-on-year to 55.5 billion yuan, with accelerated growth in AI-related services such as GPU leasing and API token usage [2][3] - High capital expenditures (CAPEX) of 19.11 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a 119% increase year-on-year, indicate ongoing investment in technology and infrastructure [3] Group 5: Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 749.5 billion yuan, 835.4 billion yuan, and 922.8 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with adjusted net profits projected at 258.9 billion yuan, 288.1 billion yuan, and 317.7 billion yuan respectively [4] - The integration of AI into the WeChat ecosystem is anticipated to enhance its capabilities, positioning it as a potential "AI operating system" [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings with a target price of 699.1 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 19.3% from the recent closing price of 586.0 HKD [5]. Core Insights - Tencent's Q2 2025 performance demonstrates robust growth across multiple business lines, driven by AI technology, with total revenue reaching 1845.0 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15% [1][2]. - The company's Non-IFRS operating profit rose to 692.5 billion RMB, marking an 18% year-on-year growth, while the core profit growth rate reached 20% after excluding the impact of joint ventures [1]. - The gaming sector showed strong performance, with domestic game revenue increasing by 17% to 404 billion RMB, supported by popular titles like "Honor of Kings" and "PUBG MOBILE" [2][3]. - Marketing services revenue grew by 20% to 357.6 billion RMB, benefiting from enhanced advertising efficiency through AI-driven models [2]. - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue recorded a 10% increase to 555.4 billion RMB, driven by improved consumer trends and AI-related services [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Total revenue for Q2 2025 was 1845.0 billion RMB, with a gross margin improvement from 53% to 57% [1]. - Non-IFRS net profit reached 630.5 billion RMB, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth [1]. Gaming Business - Value-added services revenue was 913.7 billion RMB, accounting for 50% of total revenue, with domestic games contributing significantly [2]. - International game revenue increased by 35% to 188 billion RMB, showcasing strong performance from titles under Supercell [2]. Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue reached 357.6 billion RMB, with a 20% year-on-year growth, driven by AI enhancements in advertising [2]. Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Revenue from financial technology and enterprise services was 555.4 billion RMB, up 10% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in consumer spending and demand for AI services [3]. User Engagement - Monthly active users for WeChat and QQ reached 1.411 billion and 532 million respectively, indicating stable user engagement [3]. Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure for Q2 was 191.07 billion RMB, primarily focused on AI-related business development [3].

腾讯最新财报出炉 腾讯这家走过二十余载的互联网企业，依旧锐气不减。 今天，腾讯向资本市场递上了2025第二季度财报。 财报显示，2025年第二季度，腾讯实现营收1845.04亿元，同比增长15%，环比增长2%；经营利润 （Non-IFRS）为692.5亿元，同比增长18%。 | | 不过个伙 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 截至下列日期止三個月 | | | | | | | 二零二五年 | 二零二四年 | | 二零二五年 | | | | 六月三十日 六月三十日 同比變動 三月三十一日 | | | | 環比變動 | | | (人民幣白萬元,另有指明者除外) | | | | | | 收入 | 184.504 | 161.117 | 15% | 180,022 | 2% | | 毛利 | 105.013 | 85.895 | 22% | 100,493 | 46 | | 經營盘利 | 60.104 | 50.732 | 18% - | 57.566 | 4% | | 期内盈利 | 56,044 | 48.366 | 16% | 49.725 | ...

在AI方面，通过持续迭代与全面开源，腾讯混元形成了"创新—扩散—再突破"的良性循环。混元多模态 理解模型在LMArena Vision位列国内榜首；混元3D模型，以领先行业的几何精度、纹理真实度、指令 与3D对齐能力，在Hugging Face平台排名第一。越来越多的游戏开发者、3D打印企业及专业设计师采 用混元3D模型来生成数字资产。 二季度，腾讯元宝保持高频迭代，并深度融入微信、QQ等核心场景，打造出独特的"DeepSeek+"能力体 系，在图片理解、文生图、文生视频、垂类信源、语音交互以及腾讯生态适配方面展现出超越基础模型 的独特优势。 （文章来源：证券时报） 对此，腾讯董事会主席兼首席执行官马化腾表示："2025年第二季度，我们在AI领域持续投入并从中获 益，收入及非国际财务报告准则经营盈利均取得同比双位数增长。《王者荣耀》及《和平精英》等长青 游戏向平台化进化并加大了AI的应用，新游戏如《三角洲行动》亦取得了突破，使得我们的游戏业务 在用户及收入侧均表现出色。我们致力于通过赋能微信内更多应用场景，推动AI原生应用元宝的使用 量，升级我们混元基础模型的能力，为用户及企业带来更进一步的AI增益。" 值得 ...

Financial Performance - Tencent Holdings reported Q2 2025 revenue of RMB 184.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2% [1] - Gross profit for the same period was RMB 105.01 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 4% [1] - Profit attributable to equity holders reached RMB 55.63 billion, up 17% year-on-year and 16% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Non-IFRS profit attributable to equity holders was RMB 63.05 billion, a 10% year-on-year increase and a 3% quarter-on-quarter increase [1] - Basic earnings per share were RMB 6.115 [1] Business Segments - Value-added services revenue for Q2 2025 grew 16% year-on-year to RMB 91.4 billion, driven by new game releases and growth in established titles [1] - Domestic game revenue was RMB 40.4 billion, up 17% year-on-year, supported by the success of titles like "Delta Operation" and "Honor of Kings" [1] - International game revenue reached RMB 18.8 billion, a 35% year-on-year increase, benefiting from Supercell games and "PUBG MOBILE" [1] - Social network revenue increased 6% year-on-year to RMB 32.2 billion, attributed to sales of virtual items and live streaming services [1] Marketing and Financial Services - Marketing services revenue for Q2 2025 rose 20% year-on-year to RMB 35.8 billion, driven by AI-enhanced advertising platforms and improved WeChat ecosystem [2] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue grew 10% year-on-year to RMB 55.5 billion, with growth in consumer loans and business payments [2] - The demand for AI-related services, including GPU leasing and API token usage, contributed to the acceleration in enterprise service revenue growth [2] User Engagement and AI Development - As of June 30, 2025, WeChat and WeChat's combined monthly active accounts reached 1.411 billion, a 3% year-on-year increase [3] - QQ's mobile monthly active accounts were 532 million, with paid value-added service subscribers at 264 million, a 0.4% year-on-year increase [3] - Tencent Video maintained its leading position in China's long video market with 114 million paid subscribers [3] - Tencent Music led the music streaming market with 124 million paid subscribers [3] - The company continues to invest in AI, with advancements in its mixed Yuan model capabilities attracting various developers and industries [3]