高盛表示，腾讯在欧洲路演中称，公司在AI基础设施方面具备显著成本优势，通过动态模型路由降低推理成本，混元3D模型在Hugging Face排名领先。AI技术深度融入微信生态， 驱动游戏研发效率提升、广告转化率改善和云服务增长。高盛维持腾讯买入评级，目标价701港元。 | 硬·AI | | --- | 作者 | 硬 AI 编辑 | 硬 AI 在高盛主办的腾讯欧洲路演中，腾讯首席战略官James Mitchell向投资者展示了AI技术如何成为公司各业务线增长的核心引擎，包括AI驱动游戏研发效率提升、 升级广告技术平台等。 02 混元模型引领多模态发展 8月25日，高盛在最新研报中称，在8月18日至22日的腾讯欧洲路演中，腾讯首席战略官James Mitchell表示，腾讯在AI基础设施方面展现出显著的成本优势，通 过动态模型路由实现更低的AI推理成本，混元3D模型在Hugging Face排名领先。 高盛指出，腾讯首席战略官在欧洲路演中释放的关键信号还包括：AI技术将深度融入微信生态系统，同时驱动游戏研发效率提升、广告转化率改善以及云服务高 质量增长。高盛预测腾讯2025年收入和每股收益将分别增长13%和18%。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Outperform the Market" [4][34]. Core Insights - Tencent's revenue grew by 15% year-on-year, with adjusted profit increasing by 10%. In Q2 2025, Tencent achieved revenue of 184.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, primarily driven by advertising and gaming businesses. The adjusted operating profit for Q2 2025 was 69.2 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year [1][10]. - The company is optimistic about the integration of AI applications within its ecosystem, enhancing user experience and driving growth in social e-commerce [2][19]. - The gaming segment saw a 22% year-on-year increase in revenue, with domestic game revenue rising by 17% to 40.4 billion yuan, supported by strong contributions from self-developed games [3][22][26]. - Advertising revenue reached 35.8 billion yuan, reflecting a 20% year-on-year growth, attributed to higher click-through rates from AI deployment and improved transaction activities [4][31]. - Financial technology and enterprise services returned to double-digit growth, with revenue increasing by 10% to 55.5 billion yuan, driven by commercial payment services and consumer credit services [4][32]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Tencent's total revenue was 184.5 billion yuan, a 14.5% increase year-on-year, with adjusted operating profit at 69.2 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year. The non-IFRS net profit was 63 billion yuan, reflecting a 10% increase [1][10][11]. - The overall gross margin improved to 57%, up 4 percentage points year-on-year, with specific segments like value-added services and financial technology showing significant margin improvements [11][34]. Gaming Business - The gaming revenue for Q2 2025 was 59.2 billion yuan, a 22% increase year-on-year. Domestic market revenue rose by 17% to 40.4 billion yuan, driven by popular titles like "Delta Action" and "Honor of Kings" [3][22][26]. - International gaming revenue grew by 35% to 18.8 billion yuan, with strong performances from titles like "VALORANT" and "PUBG MOBILE" [3][22][27]. Advertising and Marketing Services - The advertising revenue for Q2 2025 was 35.8 billion yuan, a 20% increase year-on-year, primarily due to enhanced click rates from AI and improved transaction activities through WeChat [4][31]. - The company noted that the current loading rate for video accounts is relatively low, indicating potential for future growth in advertising monetization [31]. Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue grew by 10% to 55.5 billion yuan, with a notable recovery in growth rates. The cloud service revenue is estimated to have increased by 17% in Q2 2025 [4][32][34].

Core Insights - Supercell's game "Clash Royale" has seen a significant resurgence in revenue, reaching $27.7 million in May 2023, a 46% year-over-year increase, and hitting a new monthly high of $37 million in June 2023 [3][5] - The game's daily active users (DAU) have surged, placing it among the top three globally, surpassing other Supercell titles like "Clash of Clans" and "Brawl Stars" [5][6] - Supercell's recent success is attributed to a shift in operational strategy, focusing on player experience and innovative gameplay, rather than solely relying on new game releases [6][19] Revenue Growth - "Clash Royale" achieved a monthly revenue of $27.7 million in May 2023, marking a 46% increase compared to the previous year [3] - In June 2023, the game's revenue further increased to $37 million, indicating a strong upward trend [3] - The game set a new daily revenue record of $3.8 million on July 8, 2023, following the introduction of a new game mode [5] Operational Strategy - Supercell has implemented significant changes in "Clash Royale," including removing barriers to player rewards and enhancing gameplay experiences [9][10] - The company has expanded its operational teams to focus on long-term game development and user retention, moving away from its traditional small team model [18][19] - Supercell's collaboration with popular streamers has also contributed to the game's renewed popularity, with notable streamers driving engagement and player interest [14][15] Market Position - Supercell's revenue has faced challenges, with a reported decline of over 4% year-over-year in 2023, prompting the need for strategic changes [18] - The company has restructured its management approach, dividing teams into those focused on new game development and those dedicated to enhancing existing titles [18][19] - The shift in strategy has resulted in a notable increase in user engagement and revenue for older titles, indicating a successful adaptation to market demands [19][23]

Group 1 - Tencent has made a significant organizational adjustment by dissolving the original Ubisoft cooperation department and establishing a new K9 cooperation department, indicating a shift from a traditional agency model to a more integrated partnership approach [1][4] - The establishment of the K9 cooperation department is part of Tencent's strategy to deeply embed itself in the lifecycle management of Ubisoft's core IPs, moving away from merely acting as a distributor [3][4] - Tencent's investment of €1.16 billion in Ubisoft's newly formed core IP subsidiary signals a strategic intent to incorporate Ubisoft into its "evergreen" operational framework, focusing on sustaining and expanding the lifecycle of IPs [3][13] Group 2 - Ubisoft has struggled with innovation, leading to stagnation in its major franchises, which has resulted in a perception of its games as repetitive and lacking fresh engagement [5][7] - The gaming industry is witnessing a shift in understanding content lifecycles, with companies needing to combat inertia and creative fatigue, a challenge that Ubisoft faces as it attempts to adapt to modern content demands [7][10] - Tencent's approach to game lifecycle management, characterized by continuous content supply and operational agility, contrasts with Ubisoft's traditional model, which may require a cultural shift within Ubisoft to fully embrace Tencent's methodologies [16][17] Group 3 - Tencent's long-term strategy involves not only enhancing its domestic IPs but also expanding its global footprint, as evidenced by its need to develop more globally relevant evergreen IPs [10][11] - The collaboration between Tencent and Ubisoft is seen as a potential remedy for Ubisoft's current challenges, with Tencent aiming to leverage its operational expertise to revitalize Ubisoft's IPs [13][19] - The ongoing partnership is an experiment to determine whether Tencent's "evergreen logic" can effectively rejuvenate Ubisoft's IPs, with both companies seeking to adapt to the evolving gaming landscape [19]

Core Insights - Supercell, a leading mobile game developer, has returned to the market with two new titles, "Squad Busters" and "mo.co," after a six-year hiatus, but both games have underperformed commercially [1][3][4] - The release strategies for both games were experimental, bypassing traditional soft launch processes, which may have contributed to their lack of success [3][6] - Despite the disappointing performance, the new titles reflect Supercell's willingness to innovate and take risks in game design and distribution strategies [3][6] Group 1: Commercial Performance - "Squad Busters" generated approximately $70 million in its first year, significantly lower than "Brawl Stars," which earned $340 million in its first year [4] - In May 2025, "Squad Busters" only earned $1.2 million, marking a low point for Supercell compared to its previous titles [4][6] - "mo.co," still in a soft launch phase, earned $2.5 million in its first three months, which is also below Supercell's historical performance [6] Group 2: Game Release Strategies - "Squad Busters" was launched globally without a soft launch, while "mo.co" utilized an invitation-only system for its soft launch, which deviated from typical practices [8][11] - The invitation system for "mo.co" created a sense of exclusivity and urgency among players, leading to approximately 2.5 million downloads in its first month [13][11] - Both games experienced a rapid decline in downloads post-launch, indicating that even Supercell's brand power may not be enough to sustain interest without effective gameplay [16] Group 3: Gameplay and Target Audience - "Squad Busters" aimed to create a highly casual experience but had to pivot towards a more mid-core gameplay style due to initial player feedback [17][18] - The game underwent significant changes in its 2.0 version, introducing a hero system and a revamped progression system to enhance player control and strategic depth [19][23] - "mo.co" was designed for mid-core players from the outset, featuring a cooperative action RPG format with various game modes, but it lacks some casual elements that could broaden its appeal [32][33] Group 4: Monetization Strategies - "Squad Busters" initially focused on a pay-to-win model, which was later adjusted to include more cosmetic items as the game evolved [44][51] - "mo.co" relies heavily on cosmetic monetization, similar to PC and console games, but this approach may limit long-term revenue potential if not balanced with functional upgrades [44][48] - The contrasting monetization strategies of the two games highlight Supercell's experimentation with different revenue models in the mid-core gaming space [54][56] Group 5: Operational Activities - Supercell has historically excelled in operational activities, but "Squad Busters" has not yet reached the level of engagement seen in titles like "Brawl Stars" [56][60] - The game has hosted numerous events, focusing on collection and cooperation, but lacks the depth and variety of activities that keep players engaged long-term [60][62] - "mo.co" has a more streamlined approach to events, focusing on fewer but more impactful activities, which may help maintain player interest without overwhelming them [73][85] Group 6: Future Outlook - Both "Squad Busters" and "mo.co" represent Supercell's bold experiments in game design, with the former transitioning towards a more structured mid-core experience and the latter aiming to refine its core gameplay [87][88] - The potential for "mo.co" to evolve its monetization strategy and operational activities remains, as Supercell is known for its ability to adapt and innovate [89][90] - The limited social features in both games indicate an area for improvement, as enhancing community engagement could significantly impact player retention and satisfaction [86][91]

Global Macro - Strong non-farm payroll data supports the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance, with June non-farm employment increasing by 147,000, exceeding market expectations of 110,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1% [1][2] - Average hourly wage growth year-on-year decreased to 3.7%, with a month-on-month increase slowing to 0.2%. This strong employment data reduces the urgency for interest rate cuts in the short term [1][2] Automotive Industry - XPeng Motors launched the G7 model at a starting price of 195,800 yuan, which is 40,000 yuan lower than the pre-sale price, exceeding expectations [3] - The G7 focuses on family comfort and smart technology, showcasing competitive advantages in the mid-to-high-end pure electric SUV market compared to competitors like Model Y and Xiaomi YU7 [3][6] - XPeng's sales in the first half of 2025 exceeded 197,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 279%, achieving 56% of its annual target. The G7's launch is expected to sustain sales growth in the second half of the year [6] Internet Industry - Tencent's mobile game revenue is expected to grow by 17% in Q2, while NetEase's mobile game revenue shows positive year-on-year growth, with domestic revenue increasing by 4% [9][10] - The performance of Tencent's games was impacted by a high base from previous releases, while new games like "Delta Action" and established titles contributed to mitigating losses [10] Economic Data - Upcoming economic data releases include U.S. consumer credit and unemployment claims, as well as China's consumer price index and trade surplus figures [11]

Core Insights - The year 2023 marks the rise of mini-games, with 2024 expected to see continued product and market expansion, leading to a mature ecosystem by 2025 [1] Group 1: User Growth and Engagement - Mini-game users online increased by 10% year-on-year, with over 80% of users accessing games through "pull-down, social, and search" methods [2] - The platform has over 5 billion monthly active users, with only 10% overlap with mobile game users, indicating a unique user base [4] - Players engage with an average of 6 mini-games monthly, with daily online time increasing by 10% compared to the previous year [4] Group 2: Developer Ecosystem - There are over 400,000 mini-game developers, with 80% being small teams of fewer than 30 people [2][8] - The platform has seen the emergence of multiple stable mini-games with over 10 million monthly active users, supported by a strong developer ecosystem [5] - The introduction of tools like LTVMax and expansion of game size limits aims to support developers and enhance game quality [9] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Competition - 70% of listed gaming companies have begun investing in mini-games, indicating a shift in market focus [10] - The entry of established companies like Supercell into the mini-game market is expected to elevate the overall quality and diversity of offerings [10] - The mini-game platform has a library of over 200 quality IPs, enhancing collaboration opportunities and user engagement [10] Group 4: Social Interaction and User Experience - The integration of social features allows for seamless interaction between players, creating a dual-loop ecosystem within the WeChat environment [11] - The rise of PC mini-games has seen a 55% increase in activity, with a 40% expansion in commercial scale [11] - The WeCare initiative supports educational and cultural projects, showcasing the platform's commitment to social impact [15]

Core Insights - The WeChat Mini Games ecosystem is thriving, with a 10% year-on-year increase in user online duration and over 80% of users starting games through "pull-down, social, and search" methods [1] - More than 400,000 mini game developers are involved, with over 80% being small teams of fewer than 30 people [1] - Approximately 70% of listed gaming companies are investing in the mini game ecosystem, leading to a rich variety of engaging games for users [1] User Engagement - The monthly active users of WeChat Mini Games have reached 500 million, with users playing an average of 6 games per month and daily online duration also increasing by 10% compared to last year [1] - Nearly 70 games have achieved over 1 million daily active users (DAU), and over 300 games have generated more than 10 million yuan in quarterly revenue [1] Market Expansion - International gaming giant Supercell has entered the Chinese WeChat Mini Games market, launching its competitive mobile game "Brawl Stars" exclusively on the platform, with a mini game version of "Clash Royale" expected to launch in September [1] - The mini game IP cooperation platform has over 200 quality IPs, with new city tourism IPs being added, marking a significant expansion in the IP collaboration space [2] Technological Advancements - The PC mini games have seen a 55% increase in activity and a 40% expansion in commercial scale, with user acquisition spending increasing fourfold [2] - The WeChat Mini Games platform has introduced the LTVMax optimization tool and upgraded its technical capabilities, allowing for larger game sizes and improved efficiency in advertising [2] Social Responsibility - The WeChat Mini Games team has upgraded the WeCare public welfare program, opening donation capabilities and exclusive feedback mechanisms to all developers by July 1, 2025, with over 1 million yuan donated during the testing phase [2]

Industry Overview - The National Press and Publication Administration announced the approval of 147 domestic game licenses and 11 imported game licenses in June, marking a recent high in license issuance [1] - The gaming industry is experiencing a recovery, with the market size reaching 28.05 billion yuan in May, a year-on-year increase of approximately 9.9% [1] - The overseas sales revenue of domestically developed games was 1.58 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.9% [1] Policy Support - The Zhejiang Provincial Department of Commerce and 17 other departments issued measures to support the internationalization of the gaming industry, proposing 20 specific initiatives to enhance global competitiveness [2] - Beijing's support measures for the gaming and esports industry emphasize the promotion of high-quality game creation and the integration of technology innovation, particularly in AI and AIGC [2] Company Developments - Tencent launched the "Hunyuan Game Visual Generation Platform," significantly optimizing game asset generation and production processes, enhancing design efficiency by several times [3] - Tencent's Q1 gaming revenue reached 59.5 billion yuan, with international market revenue of 16.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23% [4] - NetEase reported Q1 revenue of approximately 28.8 billion yuan, with a net profit of about 10.3 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of over 30% [4] Market Outlook - Analysts are optimistic about the gaming sector, anticipating a performance turning point due to stable game license issuance and supportive policies for AI integration [3] - The gaming sector is expected to benefit from the release of new products and the ongoing integration of AI technology, which is accelerating commercialization [3]

Group 1 - Supercell's popular mobile game "Brawl Stars" has initiated a confidential testing recruitment on Tencent's cloud gaming platform, with the testing expected to open to Android users in late June [1] - If the testing yields positive results, it may accelerate the global promotion of the cloud gaming version of "Brawl Stars" and enhance the cloud adaptation of other Supercell products like "Clash of Clans" and "Clash Royale," further solidifying Tencent's leading position in the cloud gaming sector [1] Group 2 - Square Enix's "Final Fantasy XVI" for Xbox Series X has faced widespread criticism due to significant reductions in graphics quality, lagging behind the PS5 version by 28% in quality mode and 55% in performance mode [2] - The technical shortcomings in cross-platform adaptation may weaken Square Enix's competitiveness in the global AAA gaming market, potentially leading to a long-term valuation downgrade [2] - Square Enix needs to quickly address the issues with patches for the Xbox and PC versions and reassess the efficiency of cross-team collaboration [2] Group 3 - Shiyue Network's classic idle card game "Shining Light" has launched a "50% recharge" test to lower the entry barrier for players, allowing them to try different card combinations at half the cost [3] - Since its launch in 2019, "Shining Light" has faced declining user activity due to competition from similar games, and this test aims to stimulate spending by offering significant discounts [3] - While the 50% recharge may reduce the average revenue per user (ARPU) during the test period, it could attract returning players and improve retention in the long term [3]