Core Insights - The article discusses how mobile game developers are increasingly directing players to external payment options to avoid Apple's 30% commission, referred to as the "Apple tax" [1][3][12] - A study by Liquid & Grit analyzed over 30 cases of leading mobile game companies like Supercell and Niantic, focusing on their strategies to sell in-app purchases (IAP) directly to players outside of the App Store [1][3] Group 1: Strategies for Redirecting Players - Liquid & Grit categorized the new store designs into four main types: offering web store discounts in the native IAP store, pop-ups, buttons on the main game interface, and using in-game news and email systems for guidance [1][3] - "Social Casino" games are the most proactive in redirecting players to web stores, utilizing all four methods, while other game categories show varied adoption [3][5] - Specific games like "Dragon City" and "PUBG Mobile" employ different strategies, such as banners and pop-ups, to encourage players to use web stores for purchases [5][7] Group 2: Incentives and Challenges - To enhance conversion rates, developers must reduce payment friction and increase player motivation to choose external payment options over Apple’s [11][12] - Companies like Epic Games offer incentives, such as a 20% cash back, to encourage players to opt for web payments [11] - The report suggests that the most effective design so far is the "purchase pop-up," which allows players to complete transactions without leaving the game, thus maintaining a seamless experience [11][12] Group 3: Alternative Payment Solutions - Companies with in-house resources are encouraged to build their own web stores and utilize payment processors like Stripe or Adyen to handle transactions [12] - For developers who prefer not to create their own stores, managed web store service providers like Xsolla and Stash are available, offering a quicker setup at a cost lower than Apple's commission [12]

Group 1: MOMO US - The operating profit exceeded expectations, with overseas new products maintaining strong growth momentum [1] - Revenue for Q2 2025 was 2.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3%, while adjusted operating profit was 450 million yuan, surpassing the expected 390 million yuan due to better-than-expected cost control and marketing channel optimization [1] - Overseas revenue continued to expand, increasing by 73% year-on-year, accounting for 17% of total revenue [1] Group 2: Future Outlook for MOMO US - Revenue for Q3 2025 is expected to decline by 2% year-on-year, with the impact of stricter compliance on streamer taxes leading to potential increases in revenue-sharing incentives [2] - Overseas revenue is projected to grow by 62% year-on-year, with products like Amar and Yaahlan expected to maintain strong growth [2] - Adjustments to net profit expectations for 2025/26 have been made due to potential new product marketing investments and changes in dividend withholding tax rates [2] Group 3: SF Express (9699 HK) - The company is experiencing continuous profit release under diversified layouts, with a buy rating maintained [3] - Revenue growth for 2025-27 has been revised upward by 14%/12%/12% to 22 billion - 30.4 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 40%/20%/15% [3] - Profit forecasts for 2025-27 have been increased by 26%/23%/27% to 340 million - 760 million yuan, with Non-IFRS net profit margins of 1.5%/2%/2.6% [3] Group 4: Future Outlook for SF Express - SF Express is expected to benefit from a rational return of subsidies in the takeaway market, with significant business space remaining [4] - The target price has been adjusted to 15.4 HKD based on a rolling valuation to 2026, corresponding to 0.5 times the sales ratio [4] Group 5: Consumer Industry Overview - The consumer market in mainland China showed moderate recovery in the first half of 2025, with structural differentiation in performance across segments [8] - Key trends include the leading performance of experiential consumption, revenue growth from global expansion strategies, and operational efficiency becoming a critical factor for profit differentiation [8][9] - Recommendations include focusing on players capturing consumer trends with high growth potential, such as Pop Mart (9992 HK), and industry leaders with stable fundamentals like Midea (000333 CH), Anta (2020 HK), and Yili (600887 CH) [8] Group 6: Automotive Industry Overview - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 55.2% in August, with retail sales of passenger cars hitting a historical high of 1.995 million units [12] - The export of passenger cars, including new energy vehicles, maintained good growth momentum, with 204,000 new energy vehicles exported in August, accounting for 40.9% of total exports [13] - The upcoming launch of multiple new models in Q3-Q4 2025 is expected to enrich market supply and boost sales during the traditional peak season [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a buy rating for Tencent, highlighting the company's significant cost advantages in AI infrastructure and projecting revenue and earnings growth through 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: AI Infrastructure and Cost Efficiency - Tencent demonstrates significant cost advantages in AI infrastructure by utilizing dynamic model routing to lower inference costs, transitioning from deep inference models to Turbo and refined models [5]. - The majority of queries in Tencent's search business are now processed through the Turbo model, which can also operate on the more cost-effective refined model [5]. - Management expresses confidence in chip supply, stating that internal demand for computing power is sufficient and that the company can utilize domestic chips for inference [6][7]. Group 2: Mixed-Mode Model Development - Tencent's self-developed mixed-mode 3D model ranks highly on the Hugging Face platform, focusing on training from text-based models to multi-modal and physical world applications [9]. - AI technology has improved efficiency in key areas, such as increasing click-through rates in advertising and accelerating content generation in game development [10]. Group 3: Integration of AI into WeChat Ecosystem - The company plans to cautiously integrate AI into the WeChat ecosystem, prioritizing user experience and security, reflecting Tencent's commitment to the stability of its super app ecosystem [11]. Group 4: AI-Driven Content Production in Gaming - AI has significantly enhanced content production efficiency in game development, with automated code generation speeding up prototype development while still requiring manual debugging [12]. - The domestic gaming market has a substantial user base, with potential to convert mini-game users into application game users [12]. - Tencent aims to leverage its strong PC platform fan base and dedicated mobile esports events to extend the lifecycle of games like "Valorant" [12]. Group 5: Advertising Growth through AI Upgrades - Tencent has upgraded its advertising base model to improve conversion rates, focusing on content consumption and commercial behavior analysis [16]. - AI-driven advertising technology upgrades are expected to enhance click-through rates across Tencent's ad inventory, offsetting depreciation impacts related to AI [17]. - The company anticipates that AI will create monetizable intent recommendation and agent prompt features in the long term [18]. Group 6: Cloud Business and Revenue Growth - Tencent is shifting towards value-added software and inference efficiency in its cloud business, with healthy profit margins in the domestic market [19]. - The unique WeChat ecosystem and global gaming assets, combined with multiple monetization levers, position Tencent for compound revenue growth amid macroeconomic cycles [20].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Outperform the Market" [4][34]. Core Insights - Tencent's revenue grew by 15% year-on-year, with adjusted profit increasing by 10%. In Q2 2025, Tencent achieved revenue of 184.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, primarily driven by advertising and gaming businesses. The adjusted operating profit for Q2 2025 was 69.2 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year [1][10]. - The company is optimistic about the integration of AI applications within its ecosystem, enhancing user experience and driving growth in social e-commerce [2][19]. - The gaming segment saw a 22% year-on-year increase in revenue, with domestic game revenue rising by 17% to 40.4 billion yuan, supported by strong contributions from self-developed games [3][22][26]. - Advertising revenue reached 35.8 billion yuan, reflecting a 20% year-on-year growth, attributed to higher click-through rates from AI deployment and improved transaction activities [4][31]. - Financial technology and enterprise services returned to double-digit growth, with revenue increasing by 10% to 55.5 billion yuan, driven by commercial payment services and consumer credit services [4][32]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Tencent's total revenue was 184.5 billion yuan, a 14.5% increase year-on-year, with adjusted operating profit at 69.2 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year. The non-IFRS net profit was 63 billion yuan, reflecting a 10% increase [1][10][11]. - The overall gross margin improved to 57%, up 4 percentage points year-on-year, with specific segments like value-added services and financial technology showing significant margin improvements [11][34]. Gaming Business - The gaming revenue for Q2 2025 was 59.2 billion yuan, a 22% increase year-on-year. Domestic market revenue rose by 17% to 40.4 billion yuan, driven by popular titles like "Delta Action" and "Honor of Kings" [3][22][26]. - International gaming revenue grew by 35% to 18.8 billion yuan, with strong performances from titles like "VALORANT" and "PUBG MOBILE" [3][22][27]. Advertising and Marketing Services - The advertising revenue for Q2 2025 was 35.8 billion yuan, a 20% increase year-on-year, primarily due to enhanced click rates from AI and improved transaction activities through WeChat [4][31]. - The company noted that the current loading rate for video accounts is relatively low, indicating potential for future growth in advertising monetization [31]. Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue grew by 10% to 55.5 billion yuan, with a notable recovery in growth rates. The cloud service revenue is estimated to have increased by 17% in Q2 2025 [4][32][34].

Group 1 - The 22nd China International Digital Interactive Entertainment Expo (ChinaJoy) officially opened on August 1 in Shanghai, with Tencent Games showcasing 17 products, occupying nearly half of the N4 hall [1] - Tencent Games' theme for this year's event is "COOL Goose Summer Camp," which aims to enhance product experience and booth services, featuring over ten gameplay categories and popular new releases such as "Runeterra: League of Legends Card Battle" and "Dance Dance Revolution: Party" [1] - The event includes immersive trial experiences and interactive activities like esports competitions and challenge games, providing a comprehensive exhibition service for attendees [1] Group 2 - The "COOL Goose Summer Camp" consists of a central square, a comprehensive exhibition area, and three independent exhibition zones, highlighted by a 40-meter "Goose MAX" screen that connects various experiences [2] - Attendees can engage in "cyber interaction" by projecting hand-drawn images and real-time comments onto the "Goose MAX" screen, with live leaderboards for competitive events displayed [2] - The central square features a green camp design with multiple interactive areas, allowing players to participate in fun activities and earn rewards, such as reciting a poem to use a loudspeaker or generating AI-customized memorabilia [2] Group 3 - The central square is flanked by a comprehensive exhibition area and three independent booths, showcasing 17 game products with diverse interactive experiences [3] - The comprehensive exhibition area features 11 products, including popular titles like "Honor of Kings" and games from Supercell, covering various genres such as strategy and simulation [3] - Independent booths include major titles from the Dungeon Fighter IP and new releases like "Valorant" and "Runeterra," offering extensive trial activities and a unique exhibition experience for players [3]

Core Insights - Supercell's game "Clash Royale" has seen a significant resurgence in revenue, reaching $27.7 million in May 2023, a 46% year-over-year increase, and hitting a new monthly high of $37 million in June 2023 [3][5] - The game's daily active users (DAU) have surged, placing it among the top three globally, surpassing other Supercell titles like "Clash of Clans" and "Brawl Stars" [5][6] - Supercell's recent success is attributed to a shift in operational strategy, focusing on player experience and innovative gameplay, rather than solely relying on new game releases [6][19] Revenue Growth - "Clash Royale" achieved a monthly revenue of $27.7 million in May 2023, marking a 46% increase compared to the previous year [3] - In June 2023, the game's revenue further increased to $37 million, indicating a strong upward trend [3] - The game set a new daily revenue record of $3.8 million on July 8, 2023, following the introduction of a new game mode [5] Operational Strategy - Supercell has implemented significant changes in "Clash Royale," including removing barriers to player rewards and enhancing gameplay experiences [9][10] - The company has expanded its operational teams to focus on long-term game development and user retention, moving away from its traditional small team model [18][19] - Supercell's collaboration with popular streamers has also contributed to the game's renewed popularity, with notable streamers driving engagement and player interest [14][15] Market Position - Supercell's revenue has faced challenges, with a reported decline of over 4% year-over-year in 2023, prompting the need for strategic changes [18] - The company has restructured its management approach, dividing teams into those focused on new game development and those dedicated to enhancing existing titles [18][19] - The shift in strategy has resulted in a notable increase in user engagement and revenue for older titles, indicating a successful adaptation to market demands [19][23]

Group 1 - Tencent has made a significant organizational adjustment by dissolving the original Ubisoft cooperation department and establishing a new K9 cooperation department, indicating a shift from a traditional agency model to a more integrated partnership approach [1][4] - The establishment of the K9 cooperation department is part of Tencent's strategy to deeply embed itself in the lifecycle management of Ubisoft's core IPs, moving away from merely acting as a distributor [3][4] - Tencent's investment of €1.16 billion in Ubisoft's newly formed core IP subsidiary signals a strategic intent to incorporate Ubisoft into its "evergreen" operational framework, focusing on sustaining and expanding the lifecycle of IPs [3][13] Group 2 - Ubisoft has struggled with innovation, leading to stagnation in its major franchises, which has resulted in a perception of its games as repetitive and lacking fresh engagement [5][7] - The gaming industry is witnessing a shift in understanding content lifecycles, with companies needing to combat inertia and creative fatigue, a challenge that Ubisoft faces as it attempts to adapt to modern content demands [7][10] - Tencent's approach to game lifecycle management, characterized by continuous content supply and operational agility, contrasts with Ubisoft's traditional model, which may require a cultural shift within Ubisoft to fully embrace Tencent's methodologies [16][17] Group 3 - Tencent's long-term strategy involves not only enhancing its domestic IPs but also expanding its global footprint, as evidenced by its need to develop more globally relevant evergreen IPs [10][11] - The collaboration between Tencent and Ubisoft is seen as a potential remedy for Ubisoft's current challenges, with Tencent aiming to leverage its operational expertise to revitalize Ubisoft's IPs [13][19] - The ongoing partnership is an experiment to determine whether Tencent's "evergreen logic" can effectively rejuvenate Ubisoft's IPs, with both companies seeking to adapt to the evolving gaming landscape [19]

Core Insights - Supercell, a leading mobile game developer, has returned to the market with two new titles, "Squad Busters" and "mo.co," after a six-year hiatus, but both games have underperformed commercially [1][3][4] - The release strategies for both games were experimental, bypassing traditional soft launch processes, which may have contributed to their lack of success [3][6] - Despite the disappointing performance, the new titles reflect Supercell's willingness to innovate and take risks in game design and distribution strategies [3][6] Group 1: Commercial Performance - "Squad Busters" generated approximately $70 million in its first year, significantly lower than "Brawl Stars," which earned $340 million in its first year [4] - In May 2025, "Squad Busters" only earned $1.2 million, marking a low point for Supercell compared to its previous titles [4][6] - "mo.co," still in a soft launch phase, earned $2.5 million in its first three months, which is also below Supercell's historical performance [6] Group 2: Game Release Strategies - "Squad Busters" was launched globally without a soft launch, while "mo.co" utilized an invitation-only system for its soft launch, which deviated from typical practices [8][11] - The invitation system for "mo.co" created a sense of exclusivity and urgency among players, leading to approximately 2.5 million downloads in its first month [13][11] - Both games experienced a rapid decline in downloads post-launch, indicating that even Supercell's brand power may not be enough to sustain interest without effective gameplay [16] Group 3: Gameplay and Target Audience - "Squad Busters" aimed to create a highly casual experience but had to pivot towards a more mid-core gameplay style due to initial player feedback [17][18] - The game underwent significant changes in its 2.0 version, introducing a hero system and a revamped progression system to enhance player control and strategic depth [19][23] - "mo.co" was designed for mid-core players from the outset, featuring a cooperative action RPG format with various game modes, but it lacks some casual elements that could broaden its appeal [32][33] Group 4: Monetization Strategies - "Squad Busters" initially focused on a pay-to-win model, which was later adjusted to include more cosmetic items as the game evolved [44][51] - "mo.co" relies heavily on cosmetic monetization, similar to PC and console games, but this approach may limit long-term revenue potential if not balanced with functional upgrades [44][48] - The contrasting monetization strategies of the two games highlight Supercell's experimentation with different revenue models in the mid-core gaming space [54][56] Group 5: Operational Activities - Supercell has historically excelled in operational activities, but "Squad Busters" has not yet reached the level of engagement seen in titles like "Brawl Stars" [56][60] - The game has hosted numerous events, focusing on collection and cooperation, but lacks the depth and variety of activities that keep players engaged long-term [60][62] - "mo.co" has a more streamlined approach to events, focusing on fewer but more impactful activities, which may help maintain player interest without overwhelming them [73][85] Group 6: Future Outlook - Both "Squad Busters" and "mo.co" represent Supercell's bold experiments in game design, with the former transitioning towards a more structured mid-core experience and the latter aiming to refine its core gameplay [87][88] - The potential for "mo.co" to evolve its monetization strategy and operational activities remains, as Supercell is known for its ability to adapt and innovate [89][90] - The limited social features in both games indicate an area for improvement, as enhancing community engagement could significantly impact player retention and satisfaction [86][91]

Global Macro - Strong non-farm payroll data supports the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance, with June non-farm employment increasing by 147,000, exceeding market expectations of 110,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1% [1][2] - Average hourly wage growth year-on-year decreased to 3.7%, with a month-on-month increase slowing to 0.2%. This strong employment data reduces the urgency for interest rate cuts in the short term [1][2] Automotive Industry - XPeng Motors launched the G7 model at a starting price of 195,800 yuan, which is 40,000 yuan lower than the pre-sale price, exceeding expectations [3] - The G7 focuses on family comfort and smart technology, showcasing competitive advantages in the mid-to-high-end pure electric SUV market compared to competitors like Model Y and Xiaomi YU7 [3][6] - XPeng's sales in the first half of 2025 exceeded 197,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 279%, achieving 56% of its annual target. The G7's launch is expected to sustain sales growth in the second half of the year [6] Internet Industry - Tencent's mobile game revenue is expected to grow by 17% in Q2, while NetEase's mobile game revenue shows positive year-on-year growth, with domestic revenue increasing by 4% [9][10] - The performance of Tencent's games was impacted by a high base from previous releases, while new games like "Delta Action" and established titles contributed to mitigating losses [10] Economic Data - Upcoming economic data releases include U.S. consumer credit and unemployment claims, as well as China's consumer price index and trade surplus figures [11]

Core Insights - The year 2023 marks the rise of mini-games, with 2024 expected to see continued product and market expansion, leading to a mature ecosystem by 2025 [1] Group 1: User Growth and Engagement - Mini-game users online increased by 10% year-on-year, with over 80% of users accessing games through "pull-down, social, and search" methods [2] - The platform has over 5 billion monthly active users, with only 10% overlap with mobile game users, indicating a unique user base [4] - Players engage with an average of 6 mini-games monthly, with daily online time increasing by 10% compared to the previous year [4] Group 2: Developer Ecosystem - There are over 400,000 mini-game developers, with 80% being small teams of fewer than 30 people [2][8] - The platform has seen the emergence of multiple stable mini-games with over 10 million monthly active users, supported by a strong developer ecosystem [5] - The introduction of tools like LTVMax and expansion of game size limits aims to support developers and enhance game quality [9] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Competition - 70% of listed gaming companies have begun investing in mini-games, indicating a shift in market focus [10] - The entry of established companies like Supercell into the mini-game market is expected to elevate the overall quality and diversity of offerings [10] - The mini-game platform has a library of over 200 quality IPs, enhancing collaboration opportunities and user engagement [10] Group 4: Social Interaction and User Experience - The integration of social features allows for seamless interaction between players, creating a dual-loop ecosystem within the WeChat environment [11] - The rise of PC mini-games has seen a 55% increase in activity, with a 40% expansion in commercial scale [11] - The WeCare initiative supports educational and cultural projects, showcasing the platform's commitment to social impact [15]