Group 1 - The company expects a net profit of 90 million to 115 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 43.91% to 83.89% compared to 62.54 million yuan in the same period last year [1][2] - The profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is estimated to be between 85 million and 110 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 61.93% to 109.55% from 52.49 million yuan [1][2] - The basic earnings per share are projected to be between 0.45 yuan and 0.58 yuan, compared to 0.31 yuan in the previous year [1] Group 2 - The increase in sales of the company's products, including detonators, explosives, and initiation devices, is attributed to significant growth, along with an increase in blasting services for national key engineering projects [2]

关于主要客户交易额变化原因，盛景微称，2023年全国工业雷管实际产量为7.24亿发，2024年工业雷管 实际产量为6.72亿发，同比下降7.18%。2023年全国电子雷管的产量为6.70亿发，2024年全国电子雷管 的产量为6.37亿发，同比下降5.02%。从公司的主要客户来看，大部分主要客户2024年工业雷管的产量 均有不同程度的下降。 受近年半导体行业不景气影响，部分芯片设计企业纷纷涌入本细分领域，导致电子控制模块国内竞争者 增加至40多家，市场价格加剧下跌，公司主要客户电子控制模块的销售单价2024年均出现不同程度的下 跌。同时，随着市场参与者的增加，主要客户引入其他供应商，挤占了公司部分市场份额。 下游客户为了降低成本，细分应用场景适配不同价格的电子雷管，导致电子控制模块的销量结构发生变 化，单价相对较高的抗振型产品2024年销量大幅下降62.52%，而普通型这类低价产品在2022年下半年 推向市场后，2023年和2024年销量占比由4.84%大幅提升至44.92%。例如雅化集团（002497）和前进集 团2024年向公司主要采购的品种由抗振型转为普通型，从而加剧了公司2024年电子控制模块销售单价的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of 51% equity in Nanbu Yongsheng by Xuefeng Technology marks a strategic move to enhance its position in the civil explosives industry and expand its market presence in Southwest China [1][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Xuefeng Technology achieved a revenue of 6.101 billion yuan and a net profit of 668 million yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 647 million yuan after deducting non-recurring items [1]. - The company produced 119,500 tons of industrial explosives, including 48,000 tons of packaged explosives and 71,500 tons of mixed explosives, along with 11.48 million electronic detonators [1]. - Xuefeng Technology has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, distributing a total of 643 million yuan in dividends over the past three years [3]. Group 2: Industry Context - The civil explosives industry is characterized by high regulatory barriers and significant operational challenges due to its hazardous nature, with strict oversight from national and provincial authorities [2]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan for the Safety Development of Civil Explosives Industry" encourages the restructuring and integration of enterprises, aiming to create 3-5 large integrated companies with strong industry influence and international competitiveness [2]. - The civil explosives market in Sichuan is robust, ranking fourth in annual explosive production in China, with a market structure dominated by leading enterprises [3]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The acquisition is seen as a critical step for Xuefeng Technology to deepen its dual business strategy of "civil explosives + energy chemicals" and to establish a strategic foothold in the Southwest market [4]. - The partnership with Nanbu Yongsheng, which has a production capacity of 26,000 tons of explosives, is expected to leverage both companies' strengths in brand recognition, profitability, and operational management [3][4]. - Xuefeng Technology aims to create a synergistic effect from the merger, enhancing its capabilities in the civil explosives sector and contributing to the high-quality development of the industry [4].

证券分析师 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观专题 2025 年 07 月 02 日 宏观专题 相关研究 德邦证券 7 月研判及金股 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 宏观研判：攻守兼备、以逸待劳 德邦证券 2025 年 7 月金股组合 化工 卓越新能（688196.SH）：中国生物柴油工业化生产先驱；生物柴油紧平衡格局 延续，关注原料替代与贸易突围；反倾销危局催动全球布局，渠道自主重构破贸易壁 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 副标题：楷体四号，非必填 当前影响整个市场的宏观变量主要是三个方面——内需修复进程、政策落地效果 和外部环境变化，眼下宏观领域的一系列分歧本质上是对这三方面宏观变量存在 不同的假设和推演，我们认为资产配置要攻守兼备、以逸待劳，在不确定性中寻找 确定性，把握趋势并做好应对。 一、外部环境方面，中美关税谈判的缓和有助于缓释基本面及市场风险偏好的压 力，中长期中美关系依旧处于一个竞争高于合作的阶段，特朗普政府依旧将"去风 险化"作为重要战略方向，这意味着 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题 2025年07月02日 德邦证券7月研判及金股 宏观专题 投资要点: 资格编号: S0120524070001 预期. 后者则是立足绝对收益思维,建议关注铜、铝、稀土、锡等;债券:预计利 率债低位震荡概率较高。信用利差已处于历史级"低位",建议关注类债资产与转 债机会。 · 德邦证券 2025年7月金股组合 化工 卓越新能(688196.SH):中国生物柴油工业化生产先驱;生物柴油紧平衡格局 延续,关注原料替代与贸易突围;反倾销危局催动全球布局,渠道自主重构破贸易壁 请务必阔读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 证券分析师 张浩 邮箱:zhanghao3@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 · 宏观研判:攻守兼备、以逸待劳 ● 当前影响整个市场的宏观变量主要是三个方面 -- 内需修复进程、政策落地效果 和外部环境变化,眼下宏观领域的一系列分歧本质上是对这三方面宏观变量存在 不同的假设和推演,我们认为资产配置要攻守兼备、以逸待劳,在不确定性中寻找 确定性,把握趋势并做好应对。 ● 一、外部环境方面,中美关税谈判的缓和有助于缓释基本面及市场风险偏好的压 力,中长期中美关系依旧处于一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The civil explosives industry is experiencing a significant increase in market concentration, driven by mergers and acquisitions among leading companies, with a projected market size growth from 273 billion yuan in 2015 to 416.95 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting an average annual growth rate of approximately 5% [1][19]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The civil explosives industry, essential for mining, infrastructure, and construction, is categorized into civil explosive products and blasting services [4]. - The market is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory, with key demand growth in regions like Xinjiang and Tibet, which are projected to see production value increases of 24.6% and 35.96% respectively in 2024 [7][19]. Group 2: Production and Performance - The production of industrial explosives is stable, with a projected output of 449.37 million tons in 2024, a slight decrease of 1.9% year-on-year [11]. - The transition from traditional detonators to electronic detonators is underway, with electronic detonators expected to account for 95% of total production by 2024 [11]. - Civil explosive companies listed on the A-share market are expected to report combined revenues of 649.22 billion yuan and net profits of 41.08 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 19.52% and 12.98% respectively [12][19]. Group 3: Profitability and Policy Support - The profitability of civil explosive companies remains robust, with average gross and net profit margins of over 25% and around 7% respectively [12]. - The government has implemented policies to ensure the healthy development of the industry, including the "14th Five-Year" plan, which focuses on capacity layout, product structure, and international cooperation [13][15]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The demand for civil explosives is closely tied to fixed asset investments in key downstream industries such as coal, metals, and non-metallic mining, which account for over 70% of total explosive consumption [21]. - The growth of coal production in Xinjiang has positioned it as the largest market for civil explosives in China, with a projected sales value of 42.13 billion yuan in 2024, up 21.8% year-on-year [23]. Group 5: Key Companies - Yipuli, a leading company in the civil explosives sector, has a production capacity of 56.55 million tons of industrial explosives and is expanding its international presence [49][50]. - Jiangnan Chemical, with the highest explosive production capacity in the industry, is also diversifying into renewable energy, positioning itself for stable growth [52][53].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company is driven by dual engines of civil explosives and lithium salt, with strong growth potential in both sectors. The civil explosives business provides stable income, while the lithium salt business is expected to recover as lithium prices have bottomed out [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Dual Business Model - The company has established a dual business model combining civil explosives and lithium salt, which supports long-term growth. It has undergone significant expansion through acquisitions since its establishment in 1952 [10][11]. 2. Lithium Salt Business - The lithium salt business has seen a significant increase in resource availability, positioning it as a key growth driver. The current lithium price of 54,000 CNY/ton is near the cash cost support level, indicating a potential bottoming out of prices [2][32]. - The company has multiple channels for resource expansion, with a self-sufficiency rate expected to exceed 25% by 2025. It has secured priority supply rights for the Li family mine and aims to increase processing capacity significantly [2][39]. - The company has established long-term supply agreements with major clients such as Tesla and CATL, ensuring stable demand for its products [2][3]. 3. Civil Explosives Business - The civil explosives segment has shown stable growth, benefiting from domestic infrastructure projects and international acquisitions. The company has expanded its footprint in the civil explosives market through strategic acquisitions [3][11]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from ongoing infrastructure projects in China, particularly in regions like Sichuan and Xinjiang [3][11]. 4. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to see significant profit growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 580 million, 970 million, and 1.25 billion CNY, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are forecasted to be 22, 13, and 10 times [3][4]. - The report suggests that the upcoming production ramp-up from the company's own lithium mines in Africa will enhance profitability, with both volume and price expected to rise in the lithium segment [3][4].

雅化集团（002497.SZ）深度报告 民爆为盾，锂盐为矛 2025 年 06 月 11 日 ➢ 民爆和锂盐双轮驱动。公司成立于 1952 年，历经国企改制、并购扩张。下 属多家子公司布局民爆和锂盐业务，2025Q1 归母净利润 0.88 亿元，同比增长 446.7%，锂盐业务底部支撑强烈，民爆业务贡献稳定收益，两大业务远期成长性 可期。 ➢ 锂盐业务：资源量实现飞跃式，构建起公司业务的"矛"。1）行业：随着澳 矿陆续减停产，行业供给下修明显。当前 5.4 万元/吨的锂价（不含税）位于现金 成本的 92%分位线，位于完全成本的 29%分位线，我们认为当前锂价已触底， 行业成本支撑较强。2）资源端：资源端多渠道扩张，资源自给率 2025 年超过 25%。享有李家沟优先供应权，Kamativi 项目一二期共同实现年处理锂矿石 230 万吨，年产出锂精矿 35 万吨。未来有望扩产至年处理锂矿石 330 万吨。此外， 公司通过参股或长协方式获得锂矿包销权，如 Kamativi、Pilgangoora、DMCC、 Atlas 等。3）冶炼端：公司现有锂盐综合产能 9.9 万吨，包括氢氧化锂产能 6.3 万吨，碳酸锂产能 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][11]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from the high demand in the Xinjiang civil explosives market, being the only producer of ammonium nitrate in the region, which provides both supply and licensing advantages [3][9]. - Following the acquisition by Guangdong Hongda, the company is expected to receive additional civil explosive capacity and optimized regional layout, leading to significant revenue and profit elasticity [3][9]. - Projected net profits for the company are estimated to reach 750 million, 890 million, and 940 million yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [3][9]. Company Overview - The company operates in the civil explosives and chemical sectors, covering the entire civil explosives industry chain, including upstream natural gas transportation, LNG, and ammonium nitrate production, as well as downstream blasting engineering and mining services [6][20]. - The company was established in 1958 and has undergone several transformations, becoming a joint-stock company in 2011 [20][21]. Civil Explosives Sector - The civil explosives market in Xinjiang is experiencing rapid growth due to the release of coal production capacity, with the company benefiting from its comprehensive industry chain [7][54]. - The company has a production capacity of 119,500 tons of industrial explosives and is the only producer of ammonium nitrate in Xinjiang, with a capacity of 660,000 tons per year [7][22]. - The market share of leading companies in the civil explosives industry is increasing, with the CR10 rising from 44% in 2017 to 62% in 2024 [7][59]. Chemical Sector - The company has expanded its chemical production capabilities through the acquisition of Xinjiang Yuxiang HuYang Chemical Co., which includes products like compound fertilizers, melamine, and ammonium nitrate [8][24]. - By the end of 2024, the company’s production capacities for melamine, urea, nitro compound fertilizer, and ammonium nitrate are projected to reach 210,000, 600,000, 900,000, and 660,000 tons per year, respectively [8][25]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue and net profit have shown fluctuations, with a significant increase in revenue from 2.61 billion yuan in 2021 to 6.90 billion yuan in 2022, followed by a decline in 2024 due to low prices of bulk chemicals [31][37]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.10 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 670 million yuan, down 21.7% year-on-year [31][41]. Market Dynamics - The demand for civil explosives is primarily driven by mining activities, with coal mining accounting for a significant portion of the demand [59][65]. - Xinjiang's coal production is expected to continue growing, supported by national policies and the region's rich coal resources, which will further drive the demand for civil explosives [69][73].

5月份以来，A股上市公司调研热度升温，其中军工概念股备受关注。 根据中研普华研究院撰写的《2024-2029年中国军工新材料行业市场全景调研与发展前景预测报告》， 全球军工新材料市场呈现出稳步增长的趋势，市场规模不断扩大。随着国际形势的变化和各国军事实力 的竞争，军工新材料市场需求将持续增长。 中国企业资本联盟副理事长柏文喜表示，现代军事装备的发展对性能提出了更高要求，如航空航天领 域，飞机、导弹等需要更轻质、高强度、耐高温的材料来提升飞行性能和作战能力，这促使军工新材料 在相关领域的应用不断扩大。 目前国泰集团在军工新材料的业务主要由其多个控股子公司开展，公司依托下属子公司拓泓新材、三石 有色开展钽铌业务，当前拓泓新材主要生产冶金级钽铌氧化物处于稳定量产阶段，三石有色业务覆盖钽 铌高纯氧化物及超高纯氧化物等高附加值产品，其中高纯度产品处于试制阶段。 5月26日，江西国泰集团（603977）股份有限公司（以下简称"国泰集团"）接受机构调研时表示："公司 将持续做强做优做大民爆一体化产业，军工新材料产业作为公司战略新兴产业，紧跟国家重大战略安排 和关键能力备份，有望成为公司业绩增长'新引擎'，轨交自动化及信息化 ...