截至午间收盘，中证云计算与大数据主题指数下跌1.6%，中证芯片产业指数上涨0.3%，中证半导体材料设备主题指数下跌0.6%，半导体设备ETF易方达 （159558）半日净申购达2900万份。 国金证券认为，半导体设备是半导体产业链的基石，存储扩产与自主可控共振，国产化空间广阔。存储芯片架构从2D向3D深层次变革，随着3D DRAM技术 引入以及NAND堆叠层数向5xx层及以上演进，制造工艺中对高深宽比刻蚀及先进薄膜沉积的要求呈指数级提升，相关设备厂商将深度受益于工艺复杂度提 升带来的红利。 0.3% 半导体设备ETF易方达 跟踪中证半导体材料设备主题指数 该指数由40只业务涉及半 导体材料和半导体设备的公 司股票组成,聚焦未来计算 的硬件基础环节。 截至午间收盘 该指数涨跌 -0.6% 同标的指数中规模居第一 联际十九心 广州指数 该指数由50只业务涉及芯 片设计、制造、封装与测 试以及半导体材料、半导 体生产设备等公司股票组 成,聚焦未来计算的核心 硬件环节。 截至午间收盘 该指数涨跌 每日经济新闻 低费率(0.15%+0. 05%费 ...

半导体设备ETF（159516）跟踪的是半导体材料设备指数（931743），该指数聚焦于半导体产业链中的 材料与设备环节，成分股主要覆盖半导体制造过程中所需的各类材料供应商及设备制造商，以反映半导 体产业上游领域相关上市公司证券的整体表现。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 消息面，当地时间1月25日，据媒体报道，三星电子在今年第一季度将NAND闪存的供应价格上调了 100%以上，这一涨幅远超市场此前预期，凸显了当前半导体市场严重的供需失衡现状。报道称，三星 电子目前已着手与客户就第二季度的NAND价格进行新一轮谈判，市场普遍预计价格上涨的势头将在第 二季度延续。 相关机构表示，半导体设备板块依然具备"存储扩产+先进制程扩产"的明确成长叙事，当前仍具备较强 配置价值。这一轮半导体设备的叙事不同于以往的周期复苏或国产替代，而是实打实的受益于全球AI 驱动的高景气。无论是AI算力所需的先进制程扩产，还是AI存力推动的存储扩产，半导体设备都是突 破产能瓶颈的核心环节。 资金面看，半导体设备ETF（159516）近20日资金净流入近100亿元，资金积极布局，"存储扩产+先进 制程扩产"持续催化。 ...

【下跌因素分析】 【市场表现】 今日半导体设备板块大跌，盘中跌超4%。 | 半导体设备 ETF | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159516 ₽ L1 | | | | | | | | 1.929 市值 188.48亿 1.862 | | | | | 量 1003.1万 | | | 115 1.851 | | | 溢价 | 0.02% | 换 | 9.91% | | -0.084 -4.32% 开 1.925 振幅 | | | | 4.01% | 额 | 18.82 7 | | 广发中证半导体材料设备 ETF 发起式联接C 近1年 85.53% | | | | | | | | 跟踪指数:半导体材料设备 6246.14 -4.07% | | | | | | | | 目K | 分时 日K | 国K | | 五日 | | 日 名 ▲ 0) | | 60分 15分 | 120分 | 30分 | | 5分 | | 1分 | | 均价:1.876 最新:1.862 -0.084 -4.317% | | | | | | | | 实时参考净 ...

Group 1: GPU Market and Demand - The GPU market is expected to be a core driver for semiconductor chip demand in the domestic market, with North American companies investing billions annually in NVIDIA's GPU chips [1] - China's cloud computing market accounts for about one-fifth of the global share, suggesting that domestic computing power demand should represent 20%-30% of the global market [1] - The increasing demand for GPUs will accelerate the need for advanced process technologies, with companies like Apple already adopting advanced processes for their chips [1][2] Group 2: Advanced Process and Equipment Demand - Current GPU manufacturers in mainland China primarily use 7 to 14 nanometer processes, while leading overseas companies like NVIDIA utilize around 4 nanometers, indicating a pressing need for advanced process expansion [2] - The demand for advanced process equipment is expected to rise significantly as GPU production increases, providing opportunities for domestic equipment manufacturers [2] - The storage industry, particularly DRAM and NAND products, dominates the market, but the majority of market share is still held by Japanese and American manufacturers [2] Group 3: Storage Market Dynamics - The rise in storage prices is largely attributed to the AI industry's demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which is essential for efficient data handling during AI training and inference [3][4] - The global GPU shipment volume is projected to reach nearly or exceed 10 million units by 2025, leading to a rapid increase in storage demand that is not being met by supply [3] - The supply-demand imbalance in the storage market has resulted in significant price increases, with DRAM contract prices expected to rise by 50% to 60% in Q1 of this year [4] Group 4: Semiconductor Equipment and Market Trends - The semiconductor equipment market is expected to benefit from the ongoing expansion in the storage sector, particularly as domestic manufacturers increase their production capabilities [6][9] - The trend towards 3D NAND technology is driving demand for etching and deposition equipment, as the complexity of manufacturing increases with more layers being added to storage chips [6][7] - The semiconductor equipment sector is transitioning from a focus on domestic market penetration to a model that reflects global AI developments, with increased capital expenditures from overseas storage companies impacting domestic stock prices [8][9]

前言 ①全球先进制程扩产意愿强烈，叠加存储扩产周期高景气度，CMP抛光液需求有望显著提升，这两家为国 内CMP业务核心龙头；②半导体用靶材是用于物理气相沉积（PVD）工艺的一种关键材料，一定程度上决 定了半导体先进制程的良率，这两家公司是国产半导体靶材重要生产厂商；③存储的大量扩产是行业内一 个明确且持续的预期和发展趋势，国内这两类半导体设备企业受益产能扩张带来的设备采购需求。 《金牌纪要库》是财联社VIP倾力打造的一款高端会议纪要类产品，结合财联社的媒体资源和行业圈层 优势，为投资者提供全面、深入的市场及行业洞察，以及专业分析和解读。 栏目专注于捕捉投资市场 的最新题材机会，通过一线记者的即时报道、资深编辑的专业整理，以及行业资深专家的深度访谈，为 投资者提供前瞻性、独家性、热门性及专业性的市场分析。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor equipment ETF (159516) has shown strong performance, achieving a three-day consecutive rise and reaching a new high, driven by recent developments in export controls and increased demand for storage solutions [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The semiconductor equipment ETF closed at 1.820 on January 7, with a significant increase of 7.50% from the previous close of 1.693 [2]. - The ETF's trading volume was 13.325 million, with a turnover rate of 21.54% and a total transaction value of 2.379 billion [2]. - The highest price during the trading session was 1.828, while the lowest was 1.741 [2]. Group 2: Industry Developments - The Ministry of Commerce announced new export controls on dual-use items to Japan, which may strengthen the logic of domestic substitution amid increasing Sino-Japanese tensions [1]. - At the CES conference, NVIDIA announced the addition of an independent high-speed "memory layer" to its network system, indicating a significant increase in storage demand [1]. - The storage sector is expected to continue experiencing catalysts, with price increases and capacity expansions likely to persist [4]. Group 3: Valuation and Investment Insights - The semiconductor equipment ETF is characterized by clear catalysts and relatively low valuations, with a PE TTM of 94.81x, placing it in the 78.06% percentile since its inception [4]. - Despite recent price increases, the ETF's valuation remains lower than other mainstream semiconductor indices, suggesting potential for further investment opportunities [4]. - Investors are advised to consider opportunities for gradual entry into the market, especially for those who have not yet participated [4].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.05% to 4085.77 points, marking a 14-day consecutive increase [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.06%, the ChiNext Index rose by 0.31%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Index saw a gain of 1.53% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.85 trillion yuan, an increase of 47.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The semiconductor equipment sector led the market, with the semiconductor equipment ETF (159516) closing up by 7.50% [1] - The coal sector saw significant gains, with the coal ETF (515220) rising by 3.80% [2] - The innovative drug sector performed well, with the Sci-Tech Innovative Drug ETF (589720) increasing by 4.06% and the Guotai Innovative Drug ETF (517110) rising by 2.80% [2] Investment Insights - The semiconductor equipment sector is supported by dual catalysts of storage expansion and advanced process expansion, making it attractive for investors to consider opportunistic buying [1] - The innovative drug sector is showing improved cost-effectiveness following a correction, with significant commercial potential for small nucleic acid drugs [2] - The coal sector is benefiting from seasonal inventory replenishment, with positive sentiment driven by news of capacity reductions [2] Bond Market - The bond market remains weak, with the ten-year government bond ETF (511260) slightly down by 0.13% [3] - There is no clear improvement in the bond market, and the current focus is on earning certain coupon income [3] - The central bank has not shown an urgent attitude towards interest rate cuts, and market expectations for increased buying scale have not materialized [3]

Market Overview - Semiconductor equipment continues to show strength, closing up 7.5% [1] Factors Driving Upward Movement - On January 6, the Ministry of Commerce announced strengthened export controls on dual-use items to Japan, impacting Japan's semiconductor equipment and materials market, where companies like Tokyo Electron and Advantest are significant players. This move is expected to allow Chinese companies to gradually capture market share from Japanese semiconductor firms [3] - NVIDIA's announcement at CES regarding its storage pooling technology is expected to increase NAND demand, with each GPU corresponding to 16TB capacity. This has led to a strong performance in the storage sector, indicating a favorable outlook for semiconductor equipment [4] Future Outlook Catalyst 1: Storage Sector - DRAM and NAND Flash spot prices have increased by over 300% since September 2025, with Q4 contract prices up 75% year-on-year. The storage price increase is expected to continue into Q1 2026 due to ongoing capacity constraints and accelerating AI demand [5] - AI GPU demand is projected to maintain a steep growth trajectory, with storage capacity constraints becoming a key investment theme through 2026. The trend towards 3D stacking in storage is expected to benefit semiconductor equipment manufacturers [5] Catalyst 2: Lithography Machine Imports - Recent data shows that lithography machine imports reached 4.6 billion yuan in November, with significant volumes imported in the preceding months. This indicates strong expansion demand in the semiconductor sector [6] Investment Thesis - The current narrative around storage and semiconductor equipment is driven by genuine benefits from global AI demand, distinguishing it from previous cycles. The semiconductor equipment ETF is seen as having clear catalysts and relatively low valuations, with a P/E ratio of 94.81x as of January 6, which is below other mainstream semiconductor indices [7]

Group 1 - The China Securities Cloud Computing and Big Data Theme Index decreased by 0.1%, while the China Securities Chip Industry Index increased by 2.5%, and the China Securities Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme Index rose by 4.5% [1] - The semiconductor equipment ETF managed by E Fund (159558) saw a net subscription of nearly 20 million units in half a day, with a total net inflow exceeding 200 million yuan over the past five trading days [1] - Guotai Junan Securities believes that semiconductor equipment is the cornerstone of the semiconductor industry chain, with significant potential for domestic production as storage chip architecture transitions from 2D to 3D [1] Group 2 - The introduction of 3D DRAM technology and the evolution of NAND stacking layers to 500 layers and above will exponentially increase the requirements for high aspect ratio etching and advanced thin film deposition in manufacturing processes [1] - Related equipment manufacturers are expected to benefit significantly from the increased complexity of manufacturing processes [1]

Group 1 - The semiconductor equipment ETF (159516) has surged over 5% due to multiple positive catalysts in the chip industry, with a net inflow of over 2.6 billion yuan in the past 20 days, bringing its total size to nearly 10 billion yuan, ranking first among similar products [1][7] - The semiconductor equipment investment is expected to be strong due to the dual catalysts of storage expansion and technological upgrades, with CXKJ planning to raise 29.5 billion yuan for projects related to storage wafer manufacturing and DRAM technology upgrades [2][3] - The prices of DRAM and NAND Flash have increased significantly, with spot prices rising over 300% since September, and contract prices expected to rise by 55%-60% for DRAM and 33%-38% for NAND in Q1 2026 [2][3] Group 2 - The semiconductor equipment sector is poised for a strong expansion cycle starting in 2026, with industry-wide order growth potentially exceeding 30% and possibly reaching over 50% [3] - The current market dynamics are driven by AI demand, which is creating a high level of activity in the semiconductor equipment sector, distinguishing this cycle from previous recoveries [4][5] - The semiconductor equipment ETF (159516) is considered to have a high cost-performance ratio and is recommended for continued observation due to the favorable market conditions and upcoming order guidance from semiconductor equipment companies [5]