Q&A 2026 年机械行业的主要投资主线是什么？ 机械团队 26 年年度策略：重点推荐装备出海+AI 设备高 景气机会 20251214 摘要 工程机械行业性价比高，利润增长依赖海外市场，国内市场困境反转。 三一重工和徐工机械估值分别为 16 倍和 10 倍出头，增长潜力可观，建 议超配。 叉车市场前景广阔，欧美降息刺激需求，无人叉车技术成熟。推荐关注 中力、杭叉和合力，受益于无人叉车产业趋势和欧美市场人力成本优势。 出口链受益于美国降息和欧美制造业复苏预期，光伏设备行业关注硅料 公司收储和下游整合，新技术可能引发扩产需求。 纽威股份具有高性价比，订单增速快，平台化布局潜力大，重点发力水 阀门和电力阀门，未来估值有望提升。 看好北方华创、中微公司、微导和迈为，受益于存储扩产预期和国产化 率提高，头部厂商订单有望大幅增长。 光伏设备行业关注迈为出海战略和奥特维的技术创新带来的资本开支机 会，一旦市场修复，奥特维可能率先反应。 PCB 板块钻孔环节存在历史性机遇，下游资本支出增速高，进口替代逻 辑强，技术迭代速度快，看好大族数控。 哪些细分方向和个股在 2026 年最值得关注？ 在工程机械领域，我们最看好头部主 ...

半导体设备是半导体产业链的基石，存储扩产与自主可控共振，国产替代空间广阔。半导体设备位于产 业链上游，是支撑芯片制造与封测的核心产业。根据SEMI的数据，2025年上半年仍以33.2%的份额保持 全球最大单一市场地位，国内设备龙头业绩表现亮眼，2025年前三季度八家龙头公司合计营收同增 37.3%，归母净利润同增23.9%。我们判断，随着AI大模型驱动存储技术向3D化演进，叠加长鑫、长存 等国内存储大厂扩产项目落地，国产半导体设备产业链有望迎来新一轮高速增长机遇。 国金证券近日发布电子行业研究：半导体设备位于产业链上游，是支撑芯片制造与封测的核心产业。根 据SEMI的数据，2025年上半年仍以33.2%的份额保持全球最大单一市场地位，国内设备龙头业绩表现亮 眼，2025年前三季度八家龙头公司合计营收同增37.3%，归母净利润同增23.9%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 行业观点 投资逻辑 全球半导体步入强劲复苏周期，设备市场维持高景气。全球半导体市场已结束去库周期，根据WSTS预 测，2025年上半年全球半导体市场规模同比增长18.9%，全年预计增长15.4%。随着行业供需关系改 善，在AI算力与先进制程扩产的驱动 ...

Core Insights - The global AI wave is driving a significant shortage in storage chips, leading to an expansion trend among manufacturers, particularly in high-end storage products like HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) [1][2] - Domestic storage manufacturers are under increasing pressure to expand production, with semiconductor equipment becoming a focal point for market attention [1][3] - The semiconductor equipment sector has seen strong performance in the stock market, with companies like Tuojing Technology achieving over 120% annual growth [1][3][4] Industry Trends - The current upcycle in storage chips is primarily driven by the explosive demand from AI servers and multimodal applications, resulting in a shortage and price increases [2][3] - Prices for various storage models have surged, with increases ranging from 40% to 100% in October, and major players like SanDisk raising NAND flash contract prices by 50% due to heightened demand and supply constraints [2][3] - The shift of international manufacturers from low-end to high-end markets has exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance, particularly affecting consumer electronics like smartphones and PCs [2][3] Company Performance - The semiconductor equipment sector reported robust growth in Q3, with total revenue reaching 85.207 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.54% [4][5] - Companies like Tuojing Technology and Zhongwei Company have shown significant revenue and profit growth, with Tuojing's revenue increasing by 85.27% and net profit by 105.14% [4][5] - Inventory and contract liabilities are at historical highs, indicating strong order visibility and future performance potential for equipment manufacturers [5] Equipment Demand - The demand for high-end semiconductor equipment, particularly for etching and thin film deposition, is expected to rise significantly due to the expansion of storage chip production [6] - Domestic manufacturers are increasingly focusing on high-end semiconductor equipment, with companies like Beifang Huachuang achieving significant milestones in equipment delivery [6] - The introduction of new products in the etching and deposition categories by companies like Zhongwei is indicative of the growing market for advanced semiconductor manufacturing [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1]. Core Views - The company reported Q3 2025 earnings that were slightly above expectations, with a revenue of 1.612 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 60.04% [2][3]. - The company is benefiting significantly from the recovery in the packaging and testing industry, as well as the continued growth of digital products such as SoC and CIS [3]. - The net profit for Q3 2025 reached 438 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 207%, nearing the upper limit of the earnings forecast [4]. - The demand for SoC testing machines has surged due to AI developments, positioning the company to benefit from domestic AI production and storage expansion [5]. Summary by Sections Earnings Overview - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue was 3.779 billion yuan, up 49.05% year-on-year, with Q3 revenue at 1.612 billion yuan [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 was 438 million yuan, with a significant increase in profit margins despite a slight decline in gross margin due to product mix changes [4]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 5.098 billion, 6.971 billion, and 8.921 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 40.0%, 36.7%, and 28.0% [6]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.108 billion, 1.600 billion, and 2.005 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 141.8%, 44.4%, and 25.3% [6]. Valuation Metrics - As of October 29, 2025, the company's stock price was 92.52 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 53, 36, and 29 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6].