【市场表现】 今日市场回暖，半导体设备ETF(159516)上午开盘下杀后一路上扬，午后再度加速，盘中涨超5%。 | < W | | 半导体设备ETF(159516.SZ) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 交易中 02-25 13:30:48 | | | | | 1.943 | 昨收 | 1.843 | 流通盘 | | 118.73亿 | | +0.100 | 开盘 +5.43% | 1.844 | 流通值 | | 231亿 | | 最高 | 1.944 | 成交量 853.1万 | 换手率 | | 7.19% | | 域低 | 1.823 | 成交额 16.10亿 | 均价 | | 1.887 | | IOPV | 1.9413 | 溢折率 0.09% | 贴水率 | | 5.40% | | | | 净值走势 国泰中证半导体材料设备主题ETF(159516.OF) 1.8434 +0.74% | | | | | 分时 | H 日K | 周K | 目K | | 明多 (0) | | ~加 | | | 均价:1.887 | 盘口 | 成交 ...

证券研究报告：电子 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2026-02-24 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 84.15 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）1.70 | / 1.70 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）143 | / 143 | | 周内最高/最低价 52 | 106.78 / 19.30 | | 资产负债率(%) | 7.2% | | 市盈率 | 350.63 | | 第一大股东 | 更多亮照明有限公司 | 研究所 分析师:吴文吉 SAC 登记编号:S1340523050004 Email:wuwenji@cnpsec.com 分析师:翟一梦 SAC 登记编号:S1340525040003 Email:zhaiyimeng@cnpsec.com 神工股份(688233) 硅材料到硅零部件一体化生产，充分受益存储扩产 l 投资要点 25Q4 收入大幅增长，具备较强业绩弹性。根据公司 2025 年业绩 预告，营收方面，预告范围为4.3-4.5亿元，同比增长42.04%-48.65%， 公司前三季度单季度平均收入约为 1 亿元（ ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor equipment ETF (159516) experienced a slight decline of 0.17% after fluctuating throughout the day, while the communication ETF (515880) saw a more significant drop of 2.47% due to complex internal and external environments and weak market sentiment [1][3]. Market Environment - The decline in the market is attributed to a combination of complex internal and external factors, with a notable drop in the U.S. software sector impacting overall market sentiment, leading to a 1.77% decrease in the Nasdaq and a 0.51% decrease in the S&P 500 [3]. - In the A-share market, continuous volume contraction has triggered profit-taking at high levels, exacerbated by rumors surrounding CPO, which has put pressure on technology stocks [3]. Fundamental Developments - Despite the market challenges, there are positive developments in the fundamental landscape, particularly in overseas computing power. Recent earnings reports indicate a strong outlook, with Meta projecting capital expenditures for 2026 between $115 billion and $135 billion, a 73% increase from $72.2 billion in 2025. Google also raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to $180 billion, significantly above the previous analyst estimate of $119.5 billion [3]. - Major companies like TSMC have provided optimistic guidance, reinforcing confidence in the ongoing AI industry wave [3]. CPO and Storage Market Insights - The CPO market is expected to penetrate faster than anticipated, with the Scale Out market primarily led by pluggable optical modules, while the Scale Up market will see growth driven by copper connections and PCBs. The relationship between CPO and optical modules remains non-significant at this stage [4]. - Storage giants like Sandisk and SK Hynix are experiencing exponential growth, with ASML indicating strong demand for storage expansion. The global wafer manufacturing equipment market size has been revised upward to $135 billion for 2026, reflecting improved market conditions [4]. Investment Opportunities - Overall, the technology sector shows a positive trend based on Q4 2025 A-share earnings forecasts and U.S. earnings reports. However, the market faces multiple pressures, suggesting potential opportunities for low-position investments. Key areas to watch include the high demand for optical modules in the overseas computing power sector and the semiconductor equipment sector benefiting from storage expansion [5].

Group 1 - The semiconductor material and equipment theme index fell by 0.2%, the chip industry index dropped by 1.2%, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board chip index decreased by 1.4%, and the chip design theme index on the same board also declined by 1.4% [1] - CITIC Construction Investment Securities believes that AI-driven logic and storage expansion demand continue to rise, with a significant gap in advanced logic from the domestic fab expansion perspective [1] - The storage cycle is on an upward trend, with strong certainty for substantial expansion in both storage types, and the domestic advanced packaging is expected to see increased volume in the future [1] Group 2 - The index consists of 50 leading stocks from the Science and Technology Innovation Board, covering semiconductor materials and equipment, chip design, manufacturing, packaging, and testing, with the semiconductor industry accounting for over 95% [5] - The Science and Technology Innovation Board chip design ETF managed by E Fund tracks the chip design theme index, which includes 50 leading stocks in digital and analog chip design, also accounting for over 95% of the index [5] - The semiconductor equipment ETF managed by E Fund tracks the China Securities Semiconductor Material and Equipment Theme Index [5]

截至午间收盘，中证云计算与大数据主题指数下跌4.3%，中证芯片产业指数下跌2.8%，中证半导体材料设备主题指数下跌1.0%。Wind数据显示，截至昨 日，半导体设备ETF易方达（159558）近一月净流入达29亿元。 国金证券认为，半导体设备是半导体产业链的基石，存储扩产与自主可控共振，国产化空间广阔。存储芯片架构从2D向3D深层次变革，随着3D DRAM技术 引入以及NAND堆叠层数向5xx层及以上演进，制造工艺中对高深宽比刻蚀及先进薄膜沉积的要求呈指数级提升，相关设备厂商将深度受益于工艺复杂度提 升带来的红利。 | 载至午间收盘 | 该指数自20 该指数 | | --- | --- | | 该指数涨跌 | 滚动市销率 发布以来估值 | | -4.3% | 5.2倍 99.40 | | 截至午间收盘 | 该指数 | 该指数自20 | | --- | --- | --- | | 该指数涨跌 | 市净率 | 以来估值分 | | -1.0% | 7.9倍 | 79.29 | | 截至午间收盘 | 该指数 | 该指数自20 | | --- | --- | --- | | 该指数涨跌 | 市净率 | 以来估值分 | ...

Market Performance - The market experienced fluctuations throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.69%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.46%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.58 trillion yuan. The semiconductor sector saw significant declines, with various ETFs dropping over 5% [1][3]. Downward Factors Analysis - The decline in the semiconductor sector was influenced by the U.S. Federal Reserve's decisions and market reactions. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50-3.75%, and the nomination of Warsh as the new Fed Chair raised market concerns due to his hawkish stance. This led to a pullback in the U.S. semiconductor sector, impacting A-shares [3]. - The overall market performance was weak, with a significant reduction in trading volume. The semiconductor sector had previously accumulated gains in early January, making it vulnerable to pressure in a declining market [3]. Future Outlook - There is strong demand for storage expansion, and the semiconductor equipment sector remains robust. ASML reported a record new order amount of 13.2 billion euros for Q4 2025, with 7.4 billion euros for EUV lithography machines. The backlog of orders at ASML extends to 2027, indicating strong growth potential in the storage sector [4]. - After recent corrections, the semiconductor equipment ETFs present an attractive investment opportunity. The high demand in the storage sector is expected to positively influence semiconductor equipment. The narrative of "storage expansion + advanced process domestic substitution" provides strong growth momentum [5]. - Concerns regarding the impact of H200 on domestic GPUs have largely subsided, and domestic GPU manufacturers are expected to gradually increase their shipment volumes, entering a phase of high growth. The Sci-Tech Innovation Chip ETF is also worth monitoring [5].

截至午间收盘，中证云计算与大数据主题指数下跌0.7%，中证半导体材料设备主题指数下跌3.6%，中证芯片产业指数下跌3.7%，半导体设备ETF易方达 （159558）半日净申购达700万份。拉长时间来看，该ETF1月份获近30亿元资金净流入，市场关注度较高。 国金证券认为，半导体设备是半导体产业链的基石，存储扩产与自主可控共振，国产化空间广阔。存储芯片架构从2D向3D深层次变革，随着3D DRAM技术 引入以及NAND堆叠层数向5xx层及以上演进，制造工艺中对高深宽比刻蚀及先进薄膜沉积的要求呈指数级提升，相关设备厂商将深度受益于工艺复杂度提 升带来的红利。 政际十址心 广州 业指数 该指数由50只业务涉及芯 片设计、制造、封装与测 试以及半导体材料、半导 体生产设备等公司股票组 成,聚焦未来计算的核心 硬件环节。 截至午间收盘 该指数涨跌 半导体设备ETF易方达 跟踪中证半导体材料设备主题指数 该指数由40只业务涉及半 导体材料和半导体设备的公 司股票组成,聚焦未来计算 的硬件基础环节。 同标的指数中规模居第一 低费率(0.15%+0.05%募 -3.7% 截至午间收盘 该指数涨跌 -3.6% 每日经济新闻 ...

截至午间收盘，中证云计算与大数据主题指数下跌1.6%，中证芯片产业指数上涨0.3%，中证半导体材料设备主题指数下跌0.6%，半导体设备ETF易方达 （159558）半日净申购达2900万份。 国金证券认为，半导体设备是半导体产业链的基石，存储扩产与自主可控共振，国产化空间广阔。存储芯片架构从2D向3D深层次变革，随着3D DRAM技术 引入以及NAND堆叠层数向5xx层及以上演进，制造工艺中对高深宽比刻蚀及先进薄膜沉积的要求呈指数级提升，相关设备厂商将深度受益于工艺复杂度提 升带来的红利。 0.3% 半导体设备ETF易方达 跟踪中证半导体材料设备主题指数 该指数由40只业务涉及半 导体材料和半导体设备的公 司股票组成,聚焦未来计算 的硬件基础环节。 截至午间收盘 该指数涨跌 -0.6% 同标的指数中规模居第一 联际十九心 广州指数 该指数由50只业务涉及芯 片设计、制造、封装与测 试以及半导体材料、半导 体生产设备等公司股票组 成,聚焦未来计算的核心 硬件环节。 截至午间收盘 该指数涨跌 每日经济新闻 低费率(0.15%+0. 05%费 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in the supply price of NAND flash memory by Samsung Electronics, which is expected to rise by over 100% in the first quarter of this year, indicating a severe supply-demand imbalance in the semiconductor market [1] - The semiconductor equipment ETF (159516) has seen a net inflow of nearly 10 billion yuan in the past 20 days, reflecting active capital allocation driven by "storage expansion + advanced process expansion" [1] - Relevant institutions indicate that the semiconductor equipment sector continues to have a clear growth narrative driven by global AI demand, distinguishing it from previous cycles of recovery or domestic substitution [1] Group 2 - The semiconductor equipment ETF (159516) tracks the semiconductor materials and equipment index (931743), focusing on the materials and equipment segments of the semiconductor industry chain [1] - The index primarily covers various material suppliers and equipment manufacturers required in the semiconductor manufacturing process, reflecting the overall performance of publicly listed companies in the upstream semiconductor sector [1] - The current narrative surrounding semiconductor equipment is fundamentally linked to the need for advanced process expansion and storage expansion driven by AI computing power, positioning it as a critical element in overcoming capacity bottlenecks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor equipment sector experienced a significant decline, dropping over 4% during trading, despite the absence of clear negative fundamentals or news [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The semiconductor equipment ETF saw a market capitalization of 18.848 billion, with a trading volume of 10.031 million [2]. - The ETF's price opened at 1.925, with a current price of 1.862, reflecting a decrease of 4.32% [2]. - The ETF's one-year performance was reported at 85.53% [2]. Group 2: Factors Behind the Decline - The recent drop in the semiconductor equipment sector may be attributed to a combination of short-term profit-taking and ongoing outflows from broad-based funds [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Continued price increases in storage are expected, with Samsung Electronics raising NAND flash supply prices by over 100% in Q1, indicating a severe supply-demand imbalance in the semiconductor market [4]. - Expansion expectations remain strong, with projections for an increase of 120,000 to 140,000 wafers this year, despite some delays in the listing schedule of a major storage manufacturer [4]. - The semiconductor equipment sector is positioned for growth driven by both storage expansion and advanced process expansion, benefiting from the global AI-driven high demand [4]. Group 4: Valuation Insights - As of January 23, the P/E ratio for the semiconductor equipment ETF was 107.65x, placing it in the 85.64th percentile since its inception, suggesting potential opportunities for investors to consider buying on dips [5].