晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 28 日 核心结论 分析师 国内市场主要指数 | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 4,139.90 | 0.18 | | 深证成指 | 14,329.91 | 0.09 | | 沪深 300 | 4,705.69 | -0.03 | | 上证 180 | 10,361.98 | 0.01 | | 中小板指 | 8,725.73 | -0.20 | | 创业板指 | 3,342.60 | 0.71 | 【基础化工】索通发展（603612.SH）2025 年业绩预增公告点评：业绩高 增长符合预期，期待 2026 年更多惊喜 索通发展：业绩高增长符合预期，期待 2026 年更多惊喜，考虑到公司业绩 预增的区间数据，我们微调 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 8.22、11.25、 14.14 亿元，EPS 分别为 1.65、2.26、2.84 元，PE 分别为 18、13、11 倍， 维持"买入"评级。 【北交所】戈碧迦（920438.BJ）2025 年业绩预告点评：利润短期承压， 拐点将至，持续 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - The report focuses on Gobi Jia (920438.BJ), a leading player in high-end optical materials, which is positioned as a pioneer in advanced packaging and AI upstream core material substitution [1][5][7] - Gobi Jia has established itself as a "small giant" in the glass industry, with a stable foundation and continuous breakthroughs in specialty functional glass, achieving import substitution in multiple fields [1][6][7] Group 2: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Gobi Jia are estimated to reach 635 million, 928 million, and 1.339 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to be 63 million, 120 million, and 191 million yuan for the same years [1][7] - The report assigns a "buy" rating based on comparable company valuation averages, indicating a positive outlook for the company's financial performance [1][7] Group 3: Industry Insights - The waterproof industry, represented by Dongfang Yuhong (002271.SZ), is experiencing a market share increase due to industry recovery expectations and improved operational quality [10][11] - Dongfang Yuhong's market share has risen from 15.8% in 2019 to 22.0% in 2024, benefiting from the consolidation of market share among leading companies [10][11] - The company is prioritizing overseas expansion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37.0% in overseas revenue from 2020 to 2024, indicating a strong growth trajectory in international markets [11][12] Group 4: Strategic Developments - Gobi Jia is investing up to 1 billion yuan to build six production lines for specialty electronic glass fibers, targeting applications in AI servers, 5G/6G communications, and aerospace [6][7] - Dongfang Yuhong is transforming its business structure by enhancing retail channels, which accounted for 84% of revenue in the first half of 2025, and expanding product categories to drive growth [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The glass industry in China is undergoing a significant transformation, shifting from a focus on quantity to quality, driven by government policies aimed at optimizing structure and eliminating outdated capacity [1][2][16]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The glass industry is a crucial pillar of the national economy, with an output value of nearly 7 trillion yuan, covering over 150 sectors [1]. - The glass sector is transitioning from a phase of merely controlling production to a comprehensive optimization of capacity, energy, and products [2][3]. - The industry faces structural challenges, including overcapacity in traditional sectors and a shortage of high-end products, necessitating a shift towards high-quality development [2][6][16]. Group 2: Policy and Governance - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a plan focusing on "capacity optimization, energy upgrading, and product upgrading" to address structural overcapacity and high-end shortages [2][4]. - Strict measures are in place to prevent the addition of new flat glass capacity, requiring new projects to include capacity replacement plans [2][4]. - The policy emphasizes the importance of market mechanisms and encourages leading companies to establish green low-carbon transformation funds [2][4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The glass industry is experiencing a bifurcation, with traditional float glass facing declining demand while high-end sectors like photovoltaic and electronic glass are witnessing rapid growth [6][8]. - The demand for float glass has decreased due to a downturn in the real estate market, with production dropping by 4.5% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2025 [8]. - Conversely, the photovoltaic glass sector is struggling with excess low-end capacity despite a projected increase in global installations [8][9]. Group 4: Technological and Structural Challenges - The glass industry is characterized by a lack of high-end production capacity, with only 20% of electronic glass being produced domestically, leading to reliance on imports [9][18]. - The industry faces issues with product homogeneity and insufficient investment in research and development, which hampers innovation and responsiveness to market changes [6][10]. - The transition to high-end products is essential, as traditional low-end products are facing intense price competition and declining profitability [16][18]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Strategies - The industry is expected to see a shift in capacity from traditional float glass to high-end segments, with projections indicating that the share of float glass will decrease from 65% to 55% by 2026 [12][14]. - Companies are exploring various strategies, including technological upgrades, market empowerment, and optimizing layouts to navigate the current challenges [10][11]. - The integration of advanced technologies and a focus on high-end materials are seen as critical for the industry's future competitiveness and sustainability [18][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [1] Core Views - The company's semiconductor layout has shown initial success, while the special glass segment is yet to take off [1] - The company has experienced a decline in overall business, particularly in the sales of nano-microcrystalline glass and special functional glass, which needs improvement [7] - The optical glass segment has seen significant revenue growth, with a 17.19% increase year-on-year, and an improvement in gross margin [7] - The company is expanding into the semiconductor industry, leveraging its optical glass as a foundational material for emerging applications [7] - Research and development efforts are being intensified, with significant progress in semiconductor applications and the establishment of a new subsidiary to enhance R&D capabilities [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are estimated at 631.33 million and 832.19 million respectively, with a forecasted net profit of 74.13 million and 127.19 million [1][8] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.51 in 2025 and 0.88 in 2026, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 87.80 and 51.17 respectively [1][8] - The company has a total market capitalization of 6,508.35 million and a circulating A-share market value of 6,300.57 million [5]

Core Viewpoint - The North Exchange 50 index reached a historical high of 1637.50 points on August 19, 2025, marking the first time it surpassed the 1600-point threshold, with a cumulative increase of approximately 12.21% in August 2025 [1][2]. Company Summaries HaiNeng Technology - HaiNeng Technology reported a total revenue of approximately 1.36 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 34.87%, and a net profit of approximately 547.15 thousand yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 139.03% [3][6]. - The company specializes in the manufacturing of scientific instruments, with a gross margin of 75.45%. The organic element analysis series contributed over 30% of its revenue, amounting to approximately 0.46 billion yuan [3][5]. - HaiNeng Technology is developing an instrument control system based on the domestic "Hongmeng" operating system, with initial tests conducted in June 2025 and plans for broader implementation within the year [6][7]. GeBiJia - GeBiJia, a national-level specialized "little giant" enterprise, focuses on the research, manufacturing, and sales of optical glass and special functional glass, with a total revenue of approximately 5.66 billion yuan in 2024 [10][11]. - The company's optical glass products accounted for about 66% of its revenue, while revenue from special functional glass products saw a significant decline of 67.63% [10][11]. - GeBiJia's products are widely used in various applications, including security monitoring, consumer electronics, and automotive lenses, with a focus on the consumer electronics sector for future development [10][12]. Market Performance - Both HaiNeng Technology and GeBiJia experienced significant stock price increases in August 2025, with HaiNeng Technology's stock reaching a historical high of 46.98 yuan and a trading volume of 11.22 billion yuan [7][9]. - GeBiJia's stock also saw a notable increase, with a cumulative price deviation of 44.54% from August 15 to August 18, 2025 [13].