小米集团-W（1810.HK）2025 年中期业绩点评 Q2 业绩再创新高，IOT+汽车业务高速发展 2025 年 08 月 21 日 ➢ 事件：8 月 19 日，小米集团发布 2025 年中期业绩，公司 25H1 实现营收 2272.49 亿 元，YOY+38.23%；经调整净利润 215.06 亿元，YOY+69.8%；毛利率为 22.7%，YOY+1.3pcts； 经调整净利率为 9.5%，YOY+1.8pcts。 ➢ 品牌战略稳中有进，单季度营收历史新高。25Q2，公司实现营收 1159.56 亿元，创历史 新高，YOY+30.5%，QOQ+4.2%。分业务来看，手机×AIOT 分部实现营收 947 亿元， YOY+14.8%；智能电动汽车及 AI 等创新业务分部实现营收 213 亿元，两部分业务均创历史新 高。本季度，公司经调整净利润为 108.31 亿元，同样创历史新高，YOY+75.4%，QOQ+1.5%， 对应经调整净利率为 9.3%。同时，小米品牌在全球影响力持续扩大。2025 年 6 月，公司入选 《2025 凯度 BrandZ 中国全球化品牌》50 强，排名位列第二；2025 年 7 月 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi has made significant strides in self-developed chip technology, showcasing its "玄戒 O1" chip, positioning itself as the fourth global company capable of designing 3nm SoC chips, following Apple, Qualcomm, and MediaTek [1][28]. Group 1: Xiaomi's Development Journey - Xiaomi's journey in chip development has spanned 11 years since the establishment of Pinecone Electronics, contrasting with Huawei's 22-year timeline [1][28]. - The company has leveraged its manufacturing advantages and internet thinking to disrupt high-value markets dominated by Apple and Samsung, creating a "catalyst effect" in the Chinese tech ecosystem [1][12]. - Xiaomi's approach integrates supply chain resources and fosters close partnerships with suppliers, ensuring product quality and stability [12][13]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - Xiaomi's strategy emphasizes high cost-performance, targeting young consumers and ordinary families, while Huawei focuses on the mid-to-high-end market with a premium pricing strategy [20][25]. - The competition between Xiaomi and Huawei is not merely adversarial; both companies contribute to a robust consumer electronics ecosystem that drives innovation and product iteration [25][18]. - Xiaomi's expansion into smart home products and other categories reflects its commitment to building a comprehensive smart ecosystem, with over 1 billion connected IoT devices [19][20]. Group 3: Industry Impact and Future Outlook - The collaboration between Xiaomi and Huawei in supporting suppliers like OFILM Group demonstrates their influence and bargaining power within the supply chain [16][18]. - The evolution of the Chinese consumer electronics industry showcases a shift from OEM and imitation to self-branded products, driven by local market demands [18][30]. - The need for more companies like Xiaomi is emphasized, as they play a crucial role in making technological advancements accessible to the general public [30].

Group 1 - The report highlights the successful hosting of COMPUTEX, focusing on AI, data centers, and robotics as key trends, with major chip manufacturers showcasing innovations [4][35][36] - In April, the semiconductor market showed signs of recovery, with stable chip delivery times and strong AI-related orders, while automotive and industrial demand began to rebound [4][38] - The report anticipates a structural growth driven by AI in Q2, with recommendations to focus on SoC, ASIC, storage, and CIS opportunities [4][39] Group 2 - The report on Lian Micro (立昂微) indicates a record high revenue of 3.092 billion yuan in 2024, a 14.97% increase year-on-year, despite a net loss of 266 million yuan [10][25] - The company is expanding its production capacity and optimizing its product structure to meet the growing demand in AI, electrification, and smart technology sectors [10][27] - The report projects a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with net profits expected to be 89 million yuan and 180 million yuan respectively, while maintaining a "hold" rating due to anticipated growth in downstream markets [10][29] Group 3 - The report on Huazhi Wine (华致酒行) reveals a significant decline in Q1 2025 revenue and net profit, with a 31.01% drop in revenue to 2.852 billion yuan [11][31] - The company is implementing a comprehensive adjustment strategy to address inventory and sales challenges, aiming for a recovery in profits by 2025 [11][33] - Future revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 9.910 billion, 10.670 billion, and 11.192 billion yuan respectively, with a significant expected increase in net profit [11][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) [1] Core Views - The company continues to focus on the "people, vehicles, and home" ecosystem, launching new products such as the YU7 SUV and the Xuanjie chips, which are expected to drive growth [7] - The YU7 SUV is positioned as a high-performance luxury vehicle with impressive specifications, including a maximum horsepower of 690 PS and a range of 835 km, which is the highest for mid-to-large electric SUVs [7] - The self-developed Xuanjie O1 chip marks Xiaomi as the fourth company globally to design a 3nm process mobile SoC, enhancing its product capabilities [7] - The company is expanding its high-end product offerings, with a 15.7% year-on-year increase in total smartphone shipments in 2024, and a 3% increase in the domestic high-end smartphone market share [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from CNY 270.97 billion in 2023 to CNY 691.16 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.62% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase significantly from CNY 17.48 billion in 2023 to CNY 59.31 billion in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 26.93% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from CNY 0.67 in 2023 to CNY 2.29 in 2027 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 73.19 in 2023 to 21.56 in 2027, indicating improving valuation [1] Market Position - Xiaomi's market capitalization is approximately CNY 1,043.39 million, with a closing price of HKD 53.00 [5] - The company has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 6.47 and a debt-to-asset ratio of 53.07% [6] - The company aims to expand its retail presence internationally, planning to open around 10,000 new Xiaomi stores overseas in the next five years [7]

Group 1 - Xiaomi and Qualcomm celebrate 15 years of partnership and announce a multi-year agreement for mobile chip supply [1] - Xiaomi will continue to be among the first manufacturers to adopt the next-generation Snapdragon 8 series chips for its high-end smartphones, targeting both Chinese and global markets [1] - Qualcomm's CEO emphasizes the importance of the partnership and expresses excitement for future collaborations in various sectors, including automotive, smart home, wearables, AR/VR, and tablets [1][2] Group 2 - Xiaomi's flagship smartphones will consistently feature the Snapdragon 8 series mobile platform, with expected annual growth in shipment volumes [1] - The companies plan to advance technology in various edge devices, continuing their collaboration that began with the launch of Xiaomi 1 in 2011 [2] - Qualcomm announces the next Snapdragon Summit will take place from September 23 to September 25 in Hawaii, with expectations to unveil the next-generation Snapdragon 8 Supreme version in 2025 [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating for the electronic industry [3] Core Insights - The electronic industry is experiencing significant differentiation, with consumer electronics showing positive performance while semiconductors and electronic chemicals face pressure [3][15] - The collaboration between Weiming Environmental Protection and China Mobile aims to create a benchmark for green computing infrastructure, leveraging existing green energy resources [8][9] - The report highlights the potential of the "power supply + heating" synergy between waste incineration power generation and data centers, particularly in regions with scarce renewable energy [9][10] Industry Tracking - The electronic industry saw a decline of 0.75% during the week of May 12-16, 2025, ranking 28th out of 31 sectors [3][11] - The top five gainers in the electronic sector included Jingyan Technology (+20.53%), *ST Yushun (+20.46%), and Sique New Materials (+16.32%) [12] - The top five decliners included Dalian Technology (-12.22%), Changguang Huaxin (-11.04%), and Tiancheng Technology (-10.43%) [13] Industry News - The U.S. plans to export hundreds of thousands of AI chips to UAE and Saudi AI companies, indicating a shift in export regulations [21][22] - Xiaomi announced the upcoming release of its self-developed mobile SoC chip, marking a return to in-house chip development [23] - AMD is set to launch the Zen6 architecture EPYC 9006 processors and RX 9060 XT graphics cards, utilizing TSMC's 2nm process technology [25] Company Announcements - Alibaba reported a revenue of 236.45 billion yuan for Q4 of fiscal year 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.6% [50][51] - Li'an Technology announced a cash dividend of 2.00 yuan per 10 shares for its 2024 annual profit distribution [52] - The report includes various announcements from companies regarding profit distributions and shareholder changes [54][55]

Group 1 - ByteDance has begun prohibiting employees from taking meals home, citing management of food waste and safety concerns [1][2] - Tencent reported a 91% year-on-year increase in capital expenditure due to AI investments, amounting to 27.48 billion yuan [3] - Manus, an AI platform, has opened registration for overseas users, allowing them to experience the service without an invitation [4][5] Group 2 - Kimi's interface upgrade has received mixed feedback from users, with some feeling it lacks the previous human touch [7] - NVIDIA is reportedly planning to establish its global headquarters in Taiwan, emphasizing its close relationship with TSMC [10] - The prices of CPUs and GPUs in Huaqiangbei have returned to normal levels after a spike earlier in the year [12] Group 3 - Xiaomi announced its self-developed SoC chip, "Xuanjie O1," set to launch later this month, marking a significant milestone in its chip development journey [13] - Neta Auto has been reported to face bankruptcy proceedings, with significant tax liabilities and legal issues [15] - Microsoft is laying off 6,000 employees globally, with over 40% of the cuts affecting software engineering roles due to AI integration [16] Group 4 - General Motors' Chinese import vehicle platform, Daolang, has undergone significant layoffs, with compensation packages based on tenure [18] - CATL is set to launch its IPO in Hong Kong, expected to be one of the largest in recent years [19] - The AI landscape is evolving with new tools and models being introduced, such as Google's AlphaEvolve and OpenAI's GPT-4.1 [20][23]

Company Developments - China Telecom, China Mobile, and China Unicom have officially launched the construction of a computing power internet experimental network, aiming to interconnect their own computing resources and nationwide distributed social computing resources [6] - Xiaomi Group's president revealed that products equipped with Xiaomi's self-developed "Xuanjie O1" chip will extend beyond smartphones, with ambitions to improve its air conditioning market position from fourth to third place this year and to be among the top two by 2030 [6] - OpenAI plans to build a large new data center in the UAE, which could become one of the largest data centers globally [6] - Xiaomi Automotive addressed concerns regarding minor deformation of the SU7 front bumper, offering free pickup and repair services for affected vehicles [6] - Autonomous driving technology company WeRide announced the launch of eight autonomous driving service demonstration routes in downtown Guangzhou, marking the first all-weather autonomous driving service in the country [6] Industry Insights - As of the end of Q1, the balance of inclusive loans for small and micro enterprises in the banking sector reached 35.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.5% [4] - The bond fund market has seen significant activity, with two funds, Guotai Fund and Minsheng Jianyin Fund, each achieving close to 60 billion yuan in establishment scale, marking them as the third and fourth bond funds to reach this scale since April [4] - The scale of land acquisition plans using special bonds has surged, with 171 cities announcing plans totaling 391.8 billion yuan and involving 6,565 hectares of residential land [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Goldman Sachs maintains an "Overweight" rating on the Chinese stock market [33] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overnight night - market showed mixed trends in various commodities, with precious metals rising, oil prices falling, and other metals and agricultural products having different performances. In the macro - economic aspect, there are changes in trade, inflation, and economic policies. The financial market also has fluctuations in stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange, and different industries have their own development situations [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.74% at $3243.90 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.07% at $32.79 per ounce [2] - International oil prices dropped significantly, with the US oil main contract down 2.31% at $61.69 per barrel and Brent crude oil main contract down 2.22% at $64.62 per barrel [3] - London base metals closed mixed, with LME lead up 0.60% at $2004.50 per ton and LME zinc down 1.29% at $2726.00 per ton [4] - Domestic futures contracts were mostly in the red, with some rising and some falling [4] - CBOT agricultural product futures contracts closed mixed, with soybean futures down 2.27%, corn futures up 62%, and wheat futures up 1.43% [4] Important Information Macroeconomic Information - After the US and China reduced tariffs, container shipping bookings from China to the US soared nearly 300% [6] - China urges the US to stop 232 tariff measures [6] - Li Qiang emphasizes strengthening the domestic cycle [6] - The US April PPI annual rate dropped to 2.4%, and the monthly rate was - 0.5% [7] Energy and Chemical Futures - The supply of the float glass industry shrank, with inventory rising [9] - Iran may reach an agreement with the US to lift sanctions [11] - China's styrene factory output and capacity utilization decreased [11] - Singapore's fuel oil and light distillate inventories decreased, while middle distillate inventories increased [11] - The IEA expects global oil supply to exceed demand in 2025 [11] - A Shandong alumina plant adjusted the purchase price of liquid caustic soda [12] - Iran says it won't ship high - enriched uranium abroad until sanctions are lifted [13] Metal Futures - An Anhui galvanizing plant will start a new production line [15] - China's alumina operating rate decreased [17] - China's recycled aluminum alloy ingot production and capacity utilization declined in April [17] Black - Series Futures - Rebar production, apparent demand increased, and inventories decreased [19] - Tangshan's steel billet inventory decreased [19] Agricultural Product Futures - Textile enterprises' cotton inventory decreased in April [21] - Australia's 2025/2026 rapeseed production is expected to be 620 million tons [21] - Brazil's Mato Grosso state had a record soybean yield [23] - China's palm oil imports are expected to increase, and prices may weaken [23] - The expected biodiesel blending volume is lower than before [24] - Brazil's soybean and soybean meal exports are expected to increase [24] - Brazil's port sugar - waiting ships and sugar volume increased [24] - Malaysia's palm oil exports increased in May [24] - China's industrial feed production increased in April [25] - More US soybean and corn planting areas are affected by drought [27] - US soybean and corn export net sales changed [27] - Brazil's soybean and corn production are expected to increase [27] - Malaysia's palm oil exports are expected to increase [28] - US soybean oil inventory and soybean crushing volume changed in April [28] Financial Market Finance - The CSRC revised the rules for the supervision of raised funds of listed companies [30] - The CSRC will strengthen the crackdown on illegal activities in the stock market [32] - A - shares oscillated weakly, and the Hong Kong stock market declined [32] - Goldman Sachs raised the target points of the MSCI China Index and CSI 300 Index [33] - Insurance funds continued to increase their holdings of bank stocks [33] - Alibaba's Q4 revenue and profit increased [33] - Hengrui Medicine launched an H - share public offering [35] - Dongfang Zhongke provides testing services for Xiaomi's chip - related company [35] - NetEase's Q1 revenue and profit increased [35] Industry - Many bank wealth management products' performance benchmarks were lowered [36] - Many FOF products issued liquidation warnings [36] - China's real estate industry is still in adjustment [36] - The China Real Estate Association will hold a commercial real estate development conference [36] - There is a large talent gap in the domestic Hongmeng ecosystem [38] - The Shanghai Tax Bureau is investigating the tax evasion allegation against Liu Xiaoqing [38] - Spring Airlines will launch a "pet in the cabin" service [39] Overseas - The US and Iran are negotiating on the nuclear issue [40] - There are internal differences in the Trump administration on AI trade [40] - Trump hopes Apple to increase production in the US [40] - US economic activity slowed, and inflation cooled [40] - US initial jobless claims were stable [42] - The EU is revising the trade agreement proposal with the US [42] - The eurozone's Q1 economic growth was revised down [42] - The UK's Q1 economic growth was faster than expected [42] - Hamas is negotiating with the US to end the Gaza conflict [43] - The UAE will invest $1.4 trillion in the US in the next 10 years [44] International Stock Markets - US stocks closed mixed, and European stocks rose slightly [45][46] - Berkshire Hathaway adjusted its holdings [46] - Meta postponed the release of its AI model [47] - Walmart's Q1 sales increased, but it warned of price increases [47] - Deere lowered its annual profit forecast [47] - Merck lowered its annual performance guidance [48] - Siemens' Q2 revenue and profit increased [49] - Allianz's Q1 operating profit reached a record high [50] - Thyssenkrupp's Q2 orders and sales declined [51] Commodities - International precious metal futures rose [52] - International oil prices dropped [52] - London base metals closed mixed [52] - The IEA expects global oil demand growth to slow [53] Bonds - China's bond futures mostly rose, and US and European bond yields declined [55] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated, and the US dollar index declined [56][58] - The ruble reached its highest level against the US dollar since 2023 [57] Upcoming Events - There are multiple central bank officials' speeches, company events, and new stock listings [62]