内容来源：刘润公众号（runliu-pub） 2）电动汽车。 此前，麦肯锡发布了一份报告:《 下一个重大竞争：改变商业格局的行业领域 》。 报告详细分析了未来最有可能改变全球商业格局的18个赛道，并预测2040年，这18个赛道将实现29万—48万亿美元的收入，贡献18-34%的 全球GDP增长。 1）电商。 麦肯锡预测，到2040年，电商在全球零售收入的占比，可能会到27%-38%，目前大约有20%。 电商行业的增长点，在于发展中国家的市场扩展，或者是发达国家中新品类的增长 。 比如，医疗保健，或者是珠宝和手工艺品等，更有"情绪价值"的产品。因为它们，更容易通过叙事的方式，在社交电商销售。 全球范围来看，无论是电商平台的获客，还是最后一公里的配送，还会大概率迎来大量投资。 半导体，是数字世界的基石。 很多领域的需求，都会推动半导体行业的快速增长。比如，计算和数据存储、汽车、通信和工业电子。 麦肯锡预测，半导体行业，未来十几年会持续6%-8%的年复合增长。 5）AI软件服务。 AI发展太快，麦肯锡特地把它单独列成了一个领域。越来越多的人，正在使用AI助手。 AI企业，也正在进行军备竞赛，打造最先进的基础模型和应 ...

Core Insights - McKinsey's report identifies 18 industry sectors likely to reshape the global business landscape, predicting revenues of $29 trillion to $48 trillion by 2040, contributing 18-34% to global GDP growth [2] E-commerce - By 2040, e-commerce's share of global retail revenue is expected to rise to 27%-38%, up from approximately 20% currently [3] - Growth drivers include market expansion in developing countries and new product categories in developed nations, such as healthcare and emotionally valuable products [4] - Significant investments are anticipated in customer acquisition and last-mile delivery across e-commerce platforms [5] Electric Vehicles - Electric vehicles (EVs) are projected to exceed 50% of global passenger car sales by 2040 [6] - Breakthroughs in battery technology and smart algorithms will significantly influence this sector, prompting increased R&D investments from both EV manufacturers and traditional automakers [7] Cloud Services - The demand for higher storage and computing capabilities is driven by a more interconnected world and the need for AI products requiring substantial computational power [9] - The cloud services industry experienced a 17% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2005 to 2020, with similar growth expected in the coming decades [10] Semiconductors - The semiconductor industry is essential for the digital world, with demand from computing, data storage, automotive, communication, and industrial electronics driving growth [11] - A sustained CAGR of 6%-8% is forecasted for the semiconductor sector over the next decade [11] AI Software Services - The rapid development of AI has led to its classification as a distinct sector, with increasing usage of AI assistants [12] - Companies in the AI space are engaged in a competitive race to develop advanced foundational models and applications [13] Digital Advertising - Digital advertising, through search, social media, and media services, is expanding in value as internet usage among the middle class increases [14] - Continuous algorithm improvements enhance platforms' abilities to target customers and track advertising costs, although competition for user attention necessitates increased investment in engaging content [15] Streaming Video - Investment in customer acquisition and content production is rising, prompting streaming platforms to seek new revenue models [17] - Developing countries may provide incremental growth in subscription and advertising revenue for streaming services, with projections indicating over 1 billion households subscribing to long-form video services by 2040 [18] Shared Autonomous Vehicles - The advent of autonomous driving technology may reduce the necessity for personal vehicle ownership [19] - By 2040, shared autonomous vehicles could account for 25%-51% of shared mobility revenue [20] Space Economy - The world is on the brink of entering a space economy era, with advancements in reusable rocket technology transforming the aerospace industry [21][22] Cybersecurity - Cybercrime caused approximately $950 billion in direct economic losses in 2020, with indirect losses potentially reaching $4-6 trillion [24] - Increasing awareness of cybersecurity has led companies to enhance their investments in this area [25] Batteries - Significant advancements in battery technology have tripled energy density over the past few decades [26] - The global energy transition is driving demand for batteries, particularly in electric vehicles, energy storage, and consumer electronics, with EVs expected to represent over 80% of the battery market by 2040 [28] Video Games - By 2030, an estimated 40% of the global population may become video game players [30] - New gaming models, such as mobile and cloud gaming, are accelerating market growth, with free-to-play games generating substantial revenue [32] Robotics - The integration of AI with robotics is creating significant expectations for humanoid robots, which are seen as potential "ultimate intelligent agents" [33] Industrial and Consumer Biotechnology - Breakthroughs in gene editing and other technologies are accelerating the application of biotechnology in agriculture, alternative proteins, consumer products, and bio-materials [37] Modular Construction - Modular construction methods, which involve prefabricating building components for on-site assembly, can significantly enhance construction efficiency [38] Nuclear Fission Power - The development of safer, smaller modular reactors presents opportunities to supplement renewable energy sources [39] Air Traffic - Electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles and delivery drones are expected to drive significant technological changes in air traffic [41] Obesity Treatment Drugs - The prevalence of obesity is projected to rise from 15% in 2020 to 24% by 2035, indicating a potential market for effective weight loss products [43]

Core Insights - McKinsey's report identifies 18 industry sectors likely to reshape the global business landscape, predicting revenues of $29 trillion to $48 trillion by 2040, contributing 18-34% to global GDP growth [2]. E-commerce - By 2040, e-commerce's share of global retail revenue is expected to rise to 27%-38%, up from approximately 20% currently [3]. - Growth drivers include market expansion in developing countries and new product categories in developed nations, such as healthcare and emotionally valuable products [4]. - Significant investments are anticipated in customer acquisition and last-mile delivery across e-commerce platforms [5]. Electric Vehicles - Electric vehicles (EVs) are projected to exceed 50% of global passenger car sales by 2040 [6]. - Breakthroughs in battery technology and smart algorithms will significantly influence this sector, prompting increased R&D investments from both EV manufacturers and traditional automakers [7]. Cloud Services - The demand for higher storage and computing capabilities is driven by a more interconnected world and the need for AI products requiring substantial computing power [9]. - The cloud services industry experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17% from 2005 to 2020, with similar growth expected in the coming decades [10]. Semiconductors - The semiconductor industry is essential for the digital world, with demand from computing, data storage, automotive, communication, and industrial electronics driving growth [11]. - A sustained CAGR of 6%-8% is forecasted for the semiconductor sector over the next decade [11]. AI Software Services - The rapid development of AI has led to its classification as a distinct sector, with increasing usage of AI assistants [12]. - Companies in the AI space are engaged in a competitive race to develop advanced foundational models and applications [13]. Digital Advertising - Digital advertising, through search, social media, and media services, is expanding in value as internet usage among the middle class increases [14]. - Continuous algorithm improvements enhance platforms' abilities to target customers and track advertising costs, although competition for user attention necessitates increased investment in engaging content [15]. Streaming Video - Investment in customer acquisition and content production is rising, prompting streaming platforms to seek new revenue models [17]. - Developing countries may provide incremental growth in subscription and advertising revenue for streaming services, with projections indicating over 1 billion households subscribing to long-form video services by 2040 [18]. Shared Autonomous Vehicles - The advent of autonomous driving technology may reduce the necessity for personal vehicle ownership [19]. - By 2040, shared autonomous vehicles could account for 25%-51% of shared mobility revenue [20]. Space Economy - The world is on the brink of entering a space economy era, with advancements in reusable rocket technology transforming the aerospace industry [21][22]. Cybersecurity - Cybercrime caused direct economic losses of approximately $950 billion in 2020, with indirect losses potentially reaching $4-6 trillion [24]. - Increasing awareness of cybersecurity has led companies to enhance their investments in this area [25]. Batteries - Significant advancements in battery technology have tripled energy density over the past few decades [26]. - The global energy transition is driving demand for batteries, particularly in electric vehicles, energy storage, and consumer electronics, with EVs expected to represent over 80% of the battery market by 2040 [28]. Video Games - By 2030, an estimated 40% of the global population may become video game players [30]. - New gaming models, such as mobile and cloud gaming, are accelerating market growth, with free-to-play games generating substantial revenue [32]. Robotics - The integration of AI with robotics is creating significant expectations for humanoid robots, which are anticipated to become "ultimate intelligent agents" [33]. Industrial and Consumer Biotechnology - Breakthroughs in gene editing and other technologies are expected to accelerate the application of biotechnology in agriculture, alternative proteins, consumer products, and bio-materials [37]. Modular Construction - Modular construction methods, which involve prefabricating building components for on-site assembly, can significantly enhance construction efficiency [38]. Nuclear Fission Power - The development of safer, smaller modular reactors may complement renewable energy sources, with commitments from over 20 countries to double nuclear energy production by 2050 [40]. Air Traffic - Electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles and delivery drones represent significant technological changes in air traffic [41]. Obesity Treatment Drugs - The prevalence of obesity is projected to rise from 15% in 2020 to 24% by 2035, indicating a potential market for effective weight loss products [43].

Core Insights - The upcoming Q4 2025 financial report of Embraer (EMBJ) is anticipated to reveal whether the company has met its performance targets, with a total of 244 aircraft deliveries for the year, representing an 18.4% year-over-year increase [1] Group 1 - Embraer's subsidiary, Eve, has successfully completed the first flight of its full-scale electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) prototype in December 2025 [1] - Eve plans to conduct hundreds of tests in 2026 to support its certification goal for 2027, with nearly 3,000 aircraft orders already in the pipeline [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai is launching a three-year action plan (2026-2028) to support the transformation and upgrading of advanced manufacturing, aiming to add 100 manufacturing enterprises with an annual output value exceeding 1 billion yuan by 2028, totaling over 600 [2] Group 1: Investment and Growth Targets - By 2025, industrial investment in Shanghai is expected to grow by 20.0%, surpassing the national growth rate of 17.4%, with manufacturing investment increasing by 22.8%, higher than the national rate of 22.2% [2] - The action plan aims to drive the establishment of 500 new large-scale industrial enterprises along the industrial chain [2] Group 2: Strategic Paths for Industry Optimization - The action plan outlines three strategic paths: 1. "Optimize and Upgrade" traditional advantageous industries such as petrochemicals and steel [3] 2. "Strategic Leadership" for leading industries like integrated circuits and biomedicine [3] 3. "Promote Growth" for key and emerging industries, including new electronic information and intelligent connected vehicles [3][4] Group 3: Innovation and Technology Development - The plan emphasizes enhancing corporate innovation capabilities, encouraging increased investment in basic research, and providing financial support based on investment levels [4][5] - Focus on breakthrough technologies in laser manufacturing and new energy, as well as core technologies in integrated circuits and high-end equipment [4] Group 4: Digital Transformation and Smart Manufacturing - Shanghai aims to deepen digital transformation through initiatives like "AI + Manufacturing," promoting the application of AI technologies in production processes [4] - By 2028, the goal is to achieve full coverage of smart factories among large enterprises, with a robot density of 600 units per 10,000 people and a digitalization level of over 70% for smart manufacturing equipment [4] Group 5: Elemental Support and Financial Services - The action plan includes strengthening support for talent, space, and funding, with a focus on optimizing financial services for the manufacturing sector [5] - Financial institutions are encouraged to offer lower interest rates and longer-term loans for manufacturing enterprises [5] Group 6: Long-term Development Strategy - The action plan is seen as a long-term strategy for cultivating new productive forces and building new advantages for high-quality development in Shanghai [6] - It aims to create a robust industrial growth engine, enhance the innovation system led by enterprises, and improve the support system for manufacturing development [6][7]

Group 1 - The automotive industry has become a significant pillar of the national economy in China, with local governments prioritizing the cultivation of new productive forces and accelerating industrial transformation and upgrading [2][15] - Various provinces and cities are focusing on the development of new energy vehicles (NEVs), with Beijing reporting over 1.3 million NEVs in use and plans to eliminate old vehicles while increasing the production of NEVs [3][5] - The "co-creation of a car" initiative in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region aims to enhance data collaboration and innovation within the automotive industry, addressing core challenges in data governance [4][5] Group 2 - The automotive industry is transitioning towards electrification, intelligence, and connectivity, with Tianjin and Hebei emphasizing the need for influential "chain master" enterprises to enhance the industry chain [5][6] - Zhejiang Province reported a 49.8% year-on-year increase in NEV production, with plans to create strategic emerging industry clusters by 2030 [5] - Local governments are focusing on integrating advanced manufacturing and new energy sectors, with specific projects aimed at enhancing the competitiveness of the automotive industry [6][8] Group 3 - The concept of "new quality productivity" is gaining traction, with discussions on the integration of AI, embodied intelligence, and robotics into the automotive sector to drive innovation and efficiency [9][10] - Infrastructure development is critical for supporting the automotive industry's transformation, with Beijing planning to build a modern transportation system and increase charging facilities for electric vehicles [10][11] - The establishment of a unified data circulation and utilization infrastructure is being proposed to enhance the digital economy and support the automotive industry's growth [11][12] Group 4 - Local governments are committed to fostering innovation in the automotive sector, with initiatives aimed at enhancing education, technology, and talent development to support industry upgrades [13][14] - Policies are being introduced to support R&D and financial services for key industry clusters, aiming to reduce tax risks and promote high-quality technological development [14][15] - The overall strategy emphasizes a comprehensive approach to automotive industry development, from vehicle manufacturing to battery production, to stimulate regional economic growth [15]

Core Insights - The "World Optical Valley" Global Industry Partner Conference was held in Wuhan, promoting development opportunities and open policies in the region, with over 20 billion yuan in contracts signed [1][2] - A significant project, the world-class integrated storage and computing industrial park, will be established in Optical Valley with an initial investment of 8 billion yuan, expected to be operational by 2028 [1][2] - The East Lake High-tech Zone aims to cultivate a world-class enterprise group and establish one trillion-level and two 500 billion-level industrial clusters within the next five years [1][4] Investment and Projects - The conference saw the signing of over 200 billion yuan in projects, including the headquarters of Boya New Materials and the production base for Tai Jing Technology's all-silicon MEMS clock devices [2] - The world-class integrated storage and computing industrial park will focus on upstream and downstream partnerships, emphasizing cutting-edge research and efficient collaboration [1][2] - The region has seen significant growth in the semiconductor sector, with over 300 chip-related companies and a projected industry scale exceeding 100 billion yuan by 2025 [2][3] Economic Goals and Achievements - By 2025, the East Lake High-tech Zone aims for a GDP of 336 billion yuan, with industrial output surpassing 400 billion yuan, ranking first in Wuhan [3][4] - The region plans to increase the number of high-tech enterprises to 5,821 and public companies to 71 during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3] - The "World Optical Valley" initiative will implement a partner model to attract global enterprises and investment institutions, fostering collaborative innovation [4]

粤港澳大湾区发展办公室1月27日在深圳举办"粤港澳大湾区低空经济的跨境应用：机遇与挑战"研讨 会，探讨跨境航线的技术进展和挑战、低空管理系统的建设、电动垂直起降飞行器在大湾区跨境高端出 行市场的商业化路径，及低空经济产业的未来发展方向。研讨会吸引逾200位来自香港及内地多个城市 的参加者出席。（大湾区之声） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of the aerospace economy as a new growth engine for high-quality economic development, driven by advancements in commercial space and low-altitude economies, which are reshaping industrial patterns and releasing substantial economic and strategic value [1][4][15]. Group 1: Aerospace Economy Development - The aerospace economy is no longer solely associated with space exploration and national security but has emerged as a key driver of new productive forces, expanding industrial boundaries and creating new economic spaces [4][5]. - The global commercial space market is rapidly expanding, with low Earth orbit-related industries becoming central to this growth, as evidenced by over 10,000 low-orbit satellites deployed by leading companies [5][6]. - The aerospace economy is characterized by high technology, high added value, and high driving force, capable of continuously generating new demand, employment, and output [6][12]. Group 2: Synergy Between Low-altitude Economy and Commercial Space - The low-altitude economy and commercial space are interdependent, forming a synergistic industrial ecosystem that enhances overall productivity [8][9]. - The low-altitude economy has developed a robust foundation of technology and industry, providing valuable applications and operational experiences that support the commercialization of high-altitude and space sectors [9][10]. - The deployment of large-scale satellite constellations will provide essential communication and navigation support for low-altitude operations, facilitating the transition from pilot applications to widespread adoption [10][11]. Group 3: Innovation and Institutional Support - Continuous innovation and ecological optimization are crucial for the sustainable development of the aerospace economy, requiring a focus on core technology breakthroughs and collaborative innovation systems [12][13]. - Institutional innovation and policy support are vital for the healthy development of the aerospace economy, necessitating optimized approval processes and regulatory frameworks to enhance efficiency and reduce operational costs [13][14]. - An open and collaborative industrial ecosystem is essential for unleashing the potential of the aerospace economy, encouraging regional specialization and international cooperation to enhance competitiveness [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The aerospace economy is becoming a focal point for societal attention, driven by breakthroughs in commercial space and large-scale satellite constellation deployments, indicating its potential as a new growth engine for high-quality economic development [2][3][4]. Industry Development - The aerospace economy is breaking traditional geographical limitations of industries, opening new spaces for economic growth, particularly in low-altitude, high-altitude, and near-Earth orbit resource development, which are still in their infancy [3][4]. - The global commercial space market is rapidly expanding, with near-Earth orbit industries expected to become a core component [3][4]. Economic Dynamics - The aerospace economy is characterized by high technology, high added value, and high driving force, capable of continuously creating new demand, employment, and output [5]. - China's low-altitude economy has seen growth rates exceeding 30% in recent years, making it one of the fastest-growing sectors in the new economy [5]. Synergy Between Low-altitude Economy and Commercial Space - The low-altitude economy and commercial space are mutually reinforcing, creating an ecosystem effect where their combined impact exceeds the sum of their parts [6][7]. - The development of the low-altitude economy provides a solid industrial foundation and application scenarios for commercial space, while breakthroughs in aerospace technology address core bottlenecks for low-altitude economic growth [6][7]. Supply Chain Integration - The integration of the low-altitude economy with commercial space is deepening, with precision manufacturing and electronic components supporting the aerospace sector, while the latter drives demand for related components [8]. - By 2025, the annual order volume for electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft in China is expected to exceed 30 billion yuan, indicating a growing supply chain that supports commercial space [8]. Innovation and Policy Support - Continuous innovation and ecological optimization are essential for the sustainable development of the aerospace economy, requiring focus on core technology breakthroughs and institutional improvements [9][10]. - The establishment of the Commercial Space Administration and related action plans is facilitating the institutionalization and systematization of the industry, with ongoing policy benefits being released [10]. Collaborative Ecosystem - Building an open and collaborative industrial ecosystem is crucial for unleashing the potential of the aerospace economy, encouraging regional specialization and international cooperation [11]. - As of 2024, commercial rocket launches in China are expected to account for over 60% of total launches, demonstrating the effectiveness of collaborative efforts among diverse stakeholders [11].