Core Viewpoint - The recent "takeout subsidy blitz" initiated by Alibaba and Meituan has significantly boosted the new tea beverage market, leading to a surge in orders and stock prices of tea brands in the Hong Kong market [1][5]. Group 1: Market Impact - The promotional campaigns included substantial discounts such as "25 off 21" and "25 off 20," which ignited a consumption boom in new tea beverages [1]. - On July 8, tea beverage stocks saw notable increases, with Cha Bai Dao rising by 5.82% to HKD 11.28, Nayuki's Tea up by 2.53% to HKD 1.62, and Gu Ming increasing by 0.36% to HKD 27.7 [1]. - As of July 9, despite fluctuations, the enthusiasm for tea beverage stocks remained high, with Gu Ming's stock rising by 2.17% to HKD 28.30 and Mi Xue Group up by 0.74% to HKD 543.00 [1]. Group 2: Order Volume Surge - The subsidy war led to a "surge in orders" for tea brands, with Nayuki reporting a threefold increase in order volume at some locations [4]. - On July 5, Nayuki's nationwide orders exceeded 1 million within 48 hours, marking a 50% increase compared to previous periods, with some stores experiencing a 230% rise in orders [4]. - Other tea brands like Mi Xue Bing Cheng, Gu Ming, and Cha Bai Dao also reported similar "explosive order" scenarios, with some stores' order receipts extending several meters [4]. Group 3: Industry Trends - Analysts predict that the end of the subsidy war will drive industry consolidation, with leading brands likely to capture a larger market share [5]. - The tea beverage industry is characterized by high standardization, which may lead to further concentration among top brands [5]. - Supply chain efficiency is becoming a core competitive factor, with leading brands utilizing digital tools to enhance operational efficiency, while smaller brands may struggle to keep up [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by Nayuki, a prominent player in the new tea beverage industry, highlighting its recent rebranding efforts and the underlying issues of declining performance and market competitiveness [3][5][11]. Brand Rebranding - Nayuki has changed its brand logo and name as part of its "internationalization strategy" for its 10th anniversary, simplifying its name from "Nayuki's Tea" to "Nayuki" and altering its English representation to "Naìsnow" [3][5]. - The rebranding has not been well received by consumers, with negative feedback on social media and a significant drop in stock price, reducing its market value to less than 1% of its peak [5][6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Nayuki reported revenue of 4.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.7%, and an adjusted net loss of 919 million yuan, with average daily sales per store dropping below 10,000 yuan [5][7]. - Since its IPO, Nayuki has struggled with profitability, only briefly returning to profit in 2023 with a net income of 13 million yuan [5][7]. Operational Challenges - Nayuki's direct sales model, which aims to replicate Starbucks' "third space" experience, has faced severe cost control challenges, with employee costs at 29.2% and raw material costs at 36.8% [7][11]. - The average daily order volume per store has decreased from 363 orders in 2018 to 270 orders in 2024, and the average transaction value has dropped from 32.4 yuan to 26.7 yuan [7][11]. Market Positioning - Nayuki primarily targets women aged 20-35 but faces competition from brands like Chayan Yueshu and Hushang Ayi, which have increased their market share by offering products priced below 10 yuan [7][11]. - The market share of products priced above 30 yuan has fallen to 12%, while those priced between 10-20 yuan account for 58% of the new tea beverage market [7][11]. Competitive Landscape - The new tea beverage industry has entered a phase of rapid expansion, with franchise models becoming crucial for efficiency. Nayuki has only 345 franchise stores compared to competitors like Mixue Ice City, which has 23,000 stores [8][11]. - Nayuki's market presence is diminishing, with a total of 1,798 stores as of the end of 2024, including a reduction of 121 direct stores [8][11]. Strategic Adjustments - Nayuki is attempting to adjust its strategy by closing underperforming stores, launching "Nayuki Green" light food outlets, and lowering franchise investment costs from 980,000 yuan to 580,000 yuan [10][11]. - The company is also exploring international markets, having opened several stores in Southeast Asia, but faces challenges due to limited market capacity and cultural differences in Western markets [10][11]. Industry Trends - The article indicates a fundamental shift in the new tea beverage industry, moving away from capital-driven growth to a focus on efficiency and differentiation [11]. - Brands that fail to establish a unique market position risk being pushed out of the market as competition intensifies [11].