Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" for the beverage industry [5] Core Insights - The new tea beverage market is transitioning from rapid growth to a more mature phase, with increasing competition leading to a shift from high-priced, heavily marketed products to a focus on frequency and sustainable operations. The performance of listed tea companies will increasingly depend on their strategic alignment with lower-tier markets [1][2] - The industry is experiencing a slowdown in store expansion, with a shift towards enhancing consumer frequency. The market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 17.59% from 2023 to 2028, indicating a transition from scale expansion to high-quality development [2][11] - The focus for value growth in tea companies will be on product innovation, strengthening supply chains, and expanding into overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia [3][53] Summary by Sections Industry Development Trends - The new tea beverage industry has seen rapid growth since 2015, with market size increasing from 1,878 billion yuan in 2018 to 5,175 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 22.47% [11] - The industry is shifting from price upgrades to frequency enhancements as the main growth driver, with a notable increase in market concentration due to intensified competition [1][15] - The average per capita consumption of ready-to-drink beverages in China is only 22 cups, compared to 323 cups in the US, indicating significant room for growth in consumption frequency [22] Secondary Market Performance - The secondary market for new tea companies has shown significant divergence, with early entrants like Nayuki Tea and Cha Baidao facing stock price declines, while companies like Mixue Group have performed strongly post-IPO [2][28] - The IPO performance of new tea companies has been mixed, with some experiencing severe declines post-listing, highlighting the market's cautious sentiment towards high-end brands [28][30] Corporate Value Growth - Companies are focusing on product innovation by enhancing health attributes through functional ingredients, strengthening supply chains for cost efficiency, and exploring international markets for growth [3][53] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with leading companies like Mixue Group and Gu Ming leveraging their supply chain capabilities and market positioning to achieve superior profitability and cost control [49][50]

Core Insights - The price of kale has surged from 0.8 yuan per jin two years ago to 3.5 yuan per jin, indicating a significant increase in demand for kale-based products [1] - New products featuring kale, such as Heytea's "Slimming Bottle," have quickly gained popularity, with 100,000 jin of kale consumed in a month, and Luckin Coffee's kale tea selling 11.2 million cups in just two weeks [1] Group 1: Nutritional Value and Perception - Kale is a nutrient-rich vegetable, high in dietary fiber, vitamin C, and calcium, but it does not have magical weight-loss properties [3][5] - The consumption of kale juice can lead to the loss of dietary fiber and minerals, and many kale-based drinks are often high in calories due to added ingredients [3][4] - The perception of kale as a health food is largely driven by marketing, rather than its actual health benefits [6][8] Group 2: Marketing and Consumer Behavior - The marketing of kale products often emphasizes terms like "slim" and "light," which may mislead consumers regarding their health benefits [6][9] - Young consumers are increasingly drawn to kale products due to their trendy branding and perceived health benefits, despite the lack of substantial evidence supporting these claims [10] - The market for light meals in China has grown significantly, with over 14,000 related businesses established, and a high percentage of consumers regularly consuming light foods [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent "takeout subsidy blitz" initiated by Alibaba and Meituan has significantly boosted the new tea beverage market, leading to a surge in orders and stock prices of tea brands in the Hong Kong market [1][5]. Group 1: Market Impact - The promotional campaigns included substantial discounts such as "25 off 21" and "25 off 20," which ignited a consumption boom in new tea beverages [1]. - On July 8, tea beverage stocks saw notable increases, with Cha Bai Dao rising by 5.82% to HKD 11.28, Nayuki's Tea up by 2.53% to HKD 1.62, and Gu Ming increasing by 0.36% to HKD 27.7 [1]. - As of July 9, despite fluctuations, the enthusiasm for tea beverage stocks remained high, with Gu Ming's stock rising by 2.17% to HKD 28.30 and Mi Xue Group up by 0.74% to HKD 543.00 [1]. Group 2: Order Volume Surge - The subsidy war led to a "surge in orders" for tea brands, with Nayuki reporting a threefold increase in order volume at some locations [4]. - On July 5, Nayuki's nationwide orders exceeded 1 million within 48 hours, marking a 50% increase compared to previous periods, with some stores experiencing a 230% rise in orders [4]. - Other tea brands like Mi Xue Bing Cheng, Gu Ming, and Cha Bai Dao also reported similar "explosive order" scenarios, with some stores' order receipts extending several meters [4]. Group 3: Industry Trends - Analysts predict that the end of the subsidy war will drive industry consolidation, with leading brands likely to capture a larger market share [5]. - The tea beverage industry is characterized by high standardization, which may lead to further concentration among top brands [5]. - Supply chain efficiency is becoming a core competitive factor, with leading brands utilizing digital tools to enhance operational efficiency, while smaller brands may struggle to keep up [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by Nayuki, a prominent player in the new tea beverage industry, highlighting its recent rebranding efforts and the underlying issues of declining performance and market competitiveness [3][5][11]. Brand Rebranding - Nayuki has changed its brand logo and name as part of its "internationalization strategy" for its 10th anniversary, simplifying its name from "Nayuki's Tea" to "Nayuki" and altering its English representation to "Naìsnow" [3][5]. - The rebranding has not been well received by consumers, with negative feedback on social media and a significant drop in stock price, reducing its market value to less than 1% of its peak [5][6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Nayuki reported revenue of 4.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.7%, and an adjusted net loss of 919 million yuan, with average daily sales per store dropping below 10,000 yuan [5][7]. - Since its IPO, Nayuki has struggled with profitability, only briefly returning to profit in 2023 with a net income of 13 million yuan [5][7]. Operational Challenges - Nayuki's direct sales model, which aims to replicate Starbucks' "third space" experience, has faced severe cost control challenges, with employee costs at 29.2% and raw material costs at 36.8% [7][11]. - The average daily order volume per store has decreased from 363 orders in 2018 to 270 orders in 2024, and the average transaction value has dropped from 32.4 yuan to 26.7 yuan [7][11]. Market Positioning - Nayuki primarily targets women aged 20-35 but faces competition from brands like Chayan Yueshu and Hushang Ayi, which have increased their market share by offering products priced below 10 yuan [7][11]. - The market share of products priced above 30 yuan has fallen to 12%, while those priced between 10-20 yuan account for 58% of the new tea beverage market [7][11]. Competitive Landscape - The new tea beverage industry has entered a phase of rapid expansion, with franchise models becoming crucial for efficiency. Nayuki has only 345 franchise stores compared to competitors like Mixue Ice City, which has 23,000 stores [8][11]. - Nayuki's market presence is diminishing, with a total of 1,798 stores as of the end of 2024, including a reduction of 121 direct stores [8][11]. Strategic Adjustments - Nayuki is attempting to adjust its strategy by closing underperforming stores, launching "Nayuki Green" light food outlets, and lowering franchise investment costs from 980,000 yuan to 580,000 yuan [10][11]. - The company is also exploring international markets, having opened several stores in Southeast Asia, but faces challenges due to limited market capacity and cultural differences in Western markets [10][11]. Industry Trends - The article indicates a fundamental shift in the new tea beverage industry, moving away from capital-driven growth to a focus on efficiency and differentiation [11]. - Brands that fail to establish a unique market position risk being pushed out of the market as competition intensifies [11].