中国经济网编者按：证券时报今日发布的报道指出，顶着"新茶饮第一股"光环上市的奈雪的茶 （02150），在登陆港股四年多后，正深陷经营困局。公司股价自上市后一路走低，累计跌幅超过 90%，多次跌破1港元沦为"仙股"，市值已不足20亿港元。这与港股新茶饮板块整体活跃的表现形成了 较大反差。 新民周刊12月8日发布的报道指出，奈雪明星代言营销模式遭质疑。消费者对奈雪代言营销动作的 冷淡乃至质疑，折射出当下新茶饮竞争逻辑的深刻变化，即市场已从营销声量的比拼，更多转向对产品 真实价值与消费体验的精细化角逐。 证券时报：奈雪的茶市值缩水90% 据证券时报今日发布的报道《昔日"资本宠儿"市值缩水90% 奈雪的茶高端之路为何难行？》，顶 着"新茶饮第一股"光环上市的奈雪的茶（02150），在登陆港股四年多后，正深陷经营困局。公司股价 自上市后一路走低，累计跌幅超过90%，多次跌破1港元沦为"仙股"，市值已不足20亿港元。这与港股 新茶饮板块整体活跃的表现形成了较大反差。 的核心客群是大众消费者，定价难以支撑高端定位。在千亿规模的现制饮品市场中，奈雪的茶能否摆脱 高端定位的枷锁，适应行业"性价比为王"的新逻辑，仍有待时间检验。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new tea beverage industry is transitioning from explosive growth to a phase of stock competition, where product quality and genuine consumer value are becoming more critical than mere marketing efforts [2][19]. Group 1: Company Overview - Naixue's Tea, a pioneer in the high-end market, announced actress Gao Yuanyuan as its brand ambassador on December 2, coinciding with its 10th anniversary [2]. - The company is facing significant operational challenges, with a reported revenue of 2.178 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a substantial decline of approximately 40% year-on-year [2][8]. - Naixue's stock price has plummeted to around 1 HKD, a 95% drop from its initial listing price of about 19 HKD, resulting in a market value loss exceeding 30 billion yuan [2][34]. Group 2: Marketing Strategy - Naixue's recent marketing strategy includes a systematic approach to celebrity collaborations, aiming to enhance brand visibility [2]. - However, the effectiveness of this celebrity endorsement strategy has been questioned, with consumers expressing indifference towards the brand ambassadors [21][24]. - The shift in consumer sentiment indicates a market trend favoring product quality and consumer experience over celebrity endorsements [5][24]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Naixue's management expenses reached 1.37 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, surpassing its sales costs of 744 million yuan, highlighting a significant profit erosion factor [27]. - The company has accumulated losses exceeding 6 billion yuan, with a net loss of 117 million yuan reported for the first half of 2025 [30][34]. - Despite an increase in order volume by 11.43%, the average transaction value has decreased from over 40 yuan in 2021 to 25.7 yuan, indicating a dilution of the brand's premium positioning [28][30]. Group 4: Market Position and Strategy Challenges - Naixue's store network is predominantly concentrated in first- and second-tier cities, limiting its market expansion compared to competitors like Mixue Ice City, which have successfully penetrated lower-tier markets [34]. - The brand has undergone three significant name changes in the past decade, leading to perceptions of a lack of clear identity and strategic direction [34]. - High employee turnover and management instability have further complicated the execution of its strategic initiatives [34][35]. Group 5: Consumer Sentiment and Brand Image - Consumer feedback on Naixue's products has been mixed, with over 2,000 complaints reported, including issues related to product quality [5][24]. - The brand's focus on creating a "third space" experience has come under scrutiny as over 89% of orders are now from takeout and self-pickup, raising questions about the return on investment for physical store spaces [27][28].

作为茶饮行业首个采用"完美代糖"D -阿洛酮糖的创新产品，它成功拿下低GI认证(GI值仅37)，既守住清 爽口感，又实现低卡轻负担，长期稳居品牌销量与复购率双 TOP1。奈雪相关负责人表示，"十年来茶 饮市场已从'口感优先'转向'健康为王'，瘦瘦小绿瓶的成绩正是消费者对我们健康战略的深度认可"。 记者了解到，GI值即血糖生成指数，是评估食物 "升糖快慢" 的核心标准。GI 值≤55的食物为低 GI 食 物，这类食物进入胃肠道后消化吸收慢，血糖上升速度平缓，能长期维持饱腹感。奈雪此次使用的D- 阿洛酮糖(D-allulose)是一种天然存在于果、蔬、粮等食物中的稀有糖，热量仅有蔗糖的10%，每克阿洛 酮糖仅含有0.4千卡的热量。除了结构稳定，D-阿洛酮糖口感也更接近蔗糖。因其具有低热量、高溶解 性、口感接近蔗糖、性质稳定等诸多优点，被专家认为是"世界上最完美的代糖"之一。 除了极低热量这一基础优势，D-阿洛酮糖还被相关研究证明具有平稳餐后血糖、控制体重等潜在健康 益处。近年来，奈雪将彩虹饮食法与膳食宝塔理论融入产品研发，遵循"营养食材+新鲜现制+低卡控 糖"的轻养健康公式，让茶饮成为传递健康生活方式的鲜活载体。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" for the beverage industry [5] Core Insights - The new tea beverage market is transitioning from rapid growth to a more mature phase, with increasing competition leading to a shift from high-priced, heavily marketed products to a focus on frequency and sustainable operations. The performance of listed tea companies will increasingly depend on their strategic alignment with lower-tier markets [1][2] - The industry is experiencing a slowdown in store expansion, with a shift towards enhancing consumer frequency. The market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 17.59% from 2023 to 2028, indicating a transition from scale expansion to high-quality development [2][11] - The focus for value growth in tea companies will be on product innovation, strengthening supply chains, and expanding into overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia [3][53] Summary by Sections Industry Development Trends - The new tea beverage industry has seen rapid growth since 2015, with market size increasing from 1,878 billion yuan in 2018 to 5,175 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 22.47% [11] - The industry is shifting from price upgrades to frequency enhancements as the main growth driver, with a notable increase in market concentration due to intensified competition [1][15] - The average per capita consumption of ready-to-drink beverages in China is only 22 cups, compared to 323 cups in the US, indicating significant room for growth in consumption frequency [22] Secondary Market Performance - The secondary market for new tea companies has shown significant divergence, with early entrants like Nayuki Tea and Cha Baidao facing stock price declines, while companies like Mixue Group have performed strongly post-IPO [2][28] - The IPO performance of new tea companies has been mixed, with some experiencing severe declines post-listing, highlighting the market's cautious sentiment towards high-end brands [28][30] Corporate Value Growth - Companies are focusing on product innovation by enhancing health attributes through functional ingredients, strengthening supply chains for cost efficiency, and exploring international markets for growth [3][53] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with leading companies like Mixue Group and Gu Ming leveraging their supply chain capabilities and market positioning to achieve superior profitability and cost control [49][50]

Core Insights - The price of kale has surged from 0.8 yuan per jin two years ago to 3.5 yuan per jin, indicating a significant increase in demand for kale-based products [1] - New products featuring kale, such as Heytea's "Slimming Bottle," have quickly gained popularity, with 100,000 jin of kale consumed in a month, and Luckin Coffee's kale tea selling 11.2 million cups in just two weeks [1] Group 1: Nutritional Value and Perception - Kale is a nutrient-rich vegetable, high in dietary fiber, vitamin C, and calcium, but it does not have magical weight-loss properties [3][5] - The consumption of kale juice can lead to the loss of dietary fiber and minerals, and many kale-based drinks are often high in calories due to added ingredients [3][4] - The perception of kale as a health food is largely driven by marketing, rather than its actual health benefits [6][8] Group 2: Marketing and Consumer Behavior - The marketing of kale products often emphasizes terms like "slim" and "light," which may mislead consumers regarding their health benefits [6][9] - Young consumers are increasingly drawn to kale products due to their trendy branding and perceived health benefits, despite the lack of substantial evidence supporting these claims [10] - The market for light meals in China has grown significantly, with over 14,000 related businesses established, and a high percentage of consumers regularly consuming light foods [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent "takeout subsidy blitz" initiated by Alibaba and Meituan has significantly boosted the new tea beverage market, leading to a surge in orders and stock prices of tea brands in the Hong Kong market [1][5]. Group 1: Market Impact - The promotional campaigns included substantial discounts such as "25 off 21" and "25 off 20," which ignited a consumption boom in new tea beverages [1]. - On July 8, tea beverage stocks saw notable increases, with Cha Bai Dao rising by 5.82% to HKD 11.28, Nayuki's Tea up by 2.53% to HKD 1.62, and Gu Ming increasing by 0.36% to HKD 27.7 [1]. - As of July 9, despite fluctuations, the enthusiasm for tea beverage stocks remained high, with Gu Ming's stock rising by 2.17% to HKD 28.30 and Mi Xue Group up by 0.74% to HKD 543.00 [1]. Group 2: Order Volume Surge - The subsidy war led to a "surge in orders" for tea brands, with Nayuki reporting a threefold increase in order volume at some locations [4]. - On July 5, Nayuki's nationwide orders exceeded 1 million within 48 hours, marking a 50% increase compared to previous periods, with some stores experiencing a 230% rise in orders [4]. - Other tea brands like Mi Xue Bing Cheng, Gu Ming, and Cha Bai Dao also reported similar "explosive order" scenarios, with some stores' order receipts extending several meters [4]. Group 3: Industry Trends - Analysts predict that the end of the subsidy war will drive industry consolidation, with leading brands likely to capture a larger market share [5]. - The tea beverage industry is characterized by high standardization, which may lead to further concentration among top brands [5]. - Supply chain efficiency is becoming a core competitive factor, with leading brands utilizing digital tools to enhance operational efficiency, while smaller brands may struggle to keep up [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by Nayuki, a prominent player in the new tea beverage industry, highlighting its recent rebranding efforts and the underlying issues of declining performance and market competitiveness [3][5][11]. Brand Rebranding - Nayuki has changed its brand logo and name as part of its "internationalization strategy" for its 10th anniversary, simplifying its name from "Nayuki's Tea" to "Nayuki" and altering its English representation to "Naìsnow" [3][5]. - The rebranding has not been well received by consumers, with negative feedback on social media and a significant drop in stock price, reducing its market value to less than 1% of its peak [5][6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Nayuki reported revenue of 4.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.7%, and an adjusted net loss of 919 million yuan, with average daily sales per store dropping below 10,000 yuan [5][7]. - Since its IPO, Nayuki has struggled with profitability, only briefly returning to profit in 2023 with a net income of 13 million yuan [5][7]. Operational Challenges - Nayuki's direct sales model, which aims to replicate Starbucks' "third space" experience, has faced severe cost control challenges, with employee costs at 29.2% and raw material costs at 36.8% [7][11]. - The average daily order volume per store has decreased from 363 orders in 2018 to 270 orders in 2024, and the average transaction value has dropped from 32.4 yuan to 26.7 yuan [7][11]. Market Positioning - Nayuki primarily targets women aged 20-35 but faces competition from brands like Chayan Yueshu and Hushang Ayi, which have increased their market share by offering products priced below 10 yuan [7][11]. - The market share of products priced above 30 yuan has fallen to 12%, while those priced between 10-20 yuan account for 58% of the new tea beverage market [7][11]. Competitive Landscape - The new tea beverage industry has entered a phase of rapid expansion, with franchise models becoming crucial for efficiency. Nayuki has only 345 franchise stores compared to competitors like Mixue Ice City, which has 23,000 stores [8][11]. - Nayuki's market presence is diminishing, with a total of 1,798 stores as of the end of 2024, including a reduction of 121 direct stores [8][11]. Strategic Adjustments - Nayuki is attempting to adjust its strategy by closing underperforming stores, launching "Nayuki Green" light food outlets, and lowering franchise investment costs from 980,000 yuan to 580,000 yuan [10][11]. - The company is also exploring international markets, having opened several stores in Southeast Asia, but faces challenges due to limited market capacity and cultural differences in Western markets [10][11]. Industry Trends - The article indicates a fundamental shift in the new tea beverage industry, moving away from capital-driven growth to a focus on efficiency and differentiation [11]. - Brands that fail to establish a unique market position risk being pushed out of the market as competition intensifies [11].