证券研究报告|社会服务 [Table_Title] 现制饮品行业系列报告二：从"规模之战" 到"价值之锚" [Table_ReportType] ——社会服务行业深度报告[Table_ReportDate] 投资要点： 行业发展趋势：门店扩张步伐放缓，展望消费频次提升。新茶饮行业从 规模化扩张转向高质量发展，门店增速放缓但人均消费杯量较海外仍有 巨大提升空间，驱动因素从价格升级切换至消费频次提升。同质化竞争 加剧背景下，市场集中度持续提高，马太效应显现，拥有强大供应链管 控能力、深耕下沉市场并具备清晰品牌定位的头部企业更具竞争优势。 二级市场表现：股价走势分化，下沉市场占优。二级市场表现显著分化， 凸显"高端承压、下沉占优"的行业趋势。早期上市企业如奈雪的茶、 茶百道普遍遭遇破发，2025 年蜜雪集团上市后强势表现重振信心。业 绩对比表明，深耕下沉市场的蜜雪集团、古茗等展现出更优的费用控制 和盈利水平。当前二级市场情绪已从初期的狂热转向理性，更关注企业 真实的经营能力与盈利模式的可持续性。 企业价值增长：产品创新、供应链强化与海外拓展。行业迈入精细化运 营阶段，企业价值增长依靠三大核心驱动力。产品创新上，竞争 ...

Core Insights - The price of kale has surged from 0.8 yuan per jin two years ago to 3.5 yuan per jin, indicating a significant increase in demand for kale-based products [1] - New products featuring kale, such as Heytea's "Slimming Bottle," have quickly gained popularity, with 100,000 jin of kale consumed in a month, and Luckin Coffee's kale tea selling 11.2 million cups in just two weeks [1] Group 1: Nutritional Value and Perception - Kale is a nutrient-rich vegetable, high in dietary fiber, vitamin C, and calcium, but it does not have magical weight-loss properties [3][5] - The consumption of kale juice can lead to the loss of dietary fiber and minerals, and many kale-based drinks are often high in calories due to added ingredients [3][4] - The perception of kale as a health food is largely driven by marketing, rather than its actual health benefits [6][8] Group 2: Marketing and Consumer Behavior - The marketing of kale products often emphasizes terms like "slim" and "light," which may mislead consumers regarding their health benefits [6][9] - Young consumers are increasingly drawn to kale products due to their trendy branding and perceived health benefits, despite the lack of substantial evidence supporting these claims [10] - The market for light meals in China has grown significantly, with over 14,000 related businesses established, and a high percentage of consumers regularly consuming light foods [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent "takeout subsidy blitz" initiated by Alibaba and Meituan has significantly boosted the new tea beverage market, leading to a surge in orders and stock prices of tea brands in the Hong Kong market [1][5]. Group 1: Market Impact - The promotional campaigns included substantial discounts such as "25 off 21" and "25 off 20," which ignited a consumption boom in new tea beverages [1]. - On July 8, tea beverage stocks saw notable increases, with Cha Bai Dao rising by 5.82% to HKD 11.28, Nayuki's Tea up by 2.53% to HKD 1.62, and Gu Ming increasing by 0.36% to HKD 27.7 [1]. - As of July 9, despite fluctuations, the enthusiasm for tea beverage stocks remained high, with Gu Ming's stock rising by 2.17% to HKD 28.30 and Mi Xue Group up by 0.74% to HKD 543.00 [1]. Group 2: Order Volume Surge - The subsidy war led to a "surge in orders" for tea brands, with Nayuki reporting a threefold increase in order volume at some locations [4]. - On July 5, Nayuki's nationwide orders exceeded 1 million within 48 hours, marking a 50% increase compared to previous periods, with some stores experiencing a 230% rise in orders [4]. - Other tea brands like Mi Xue Bing Cheng, Gu Ming, and Cha Bai Dao also reported similar "explosive order" scenarios, with some stores' order receipts extending several meters [4]. Group 3: Industry Trends - Analysts predict that the end of the subsidy war will drive industry consolidation, with leading brands likely to capture a larger market share [5]. - The tea beverage industry is characterized by high standardization, which may lead to further concentration among top brands [5]. - Supply chain efficiency is becoming a core competitive factor, with leading brands utilizing digital tools to enhance operational efficiency, while smaller brands may struggle to keep up [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by Nayuki, a prominent player in the new tea beverage industry, highlighting its recent rebranding efforts and the underlying issues of declining performance and market competitiveness [3][5][11]. Brand Rebranding - Nayuki has changed its brand logo and name as part of its "internationalization strategy" for its 10th anniversary, simplifying its name from "Nayuki's Tea" to "Nayuki" and altering its English representation to "Naìsnow" [3][5]. - The rebranding has not been well received by consumers, with negative feedback on social media and a significant drop in stock price, reducing its market value to less than 1% of its peak [5][6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Nayuki reported revenue of 4.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.7%, and an adjusted net loss of 919 million yuan, with average daily sales per store dropping below 10,000 yuan [5][7]. - Since its IPO, Nayuki has struggled with profitability, only briefly returning to profit in 2023 with a net income of 13 million yuan [5][7]. Operational Challenges - Nayuki's direct sales model, which aims to replicate Starbucks' "third space" experience, has faced severe cost control challenges, with employee costs at 29.2% and raw material costs at 36.8% [7][11]. - The average daily order volume per store has decreased from 363 orders in 2018 to 270 orders in 2024, and the average transaction value has dropped from 32.4 yuan to 26.7 yuan [7][11]. Market Positioning - Nayuki primarily targets women aged 20-35 but faces competition from brands like Chayan Yueshu and Hushang Ayi, which have increased their market share by offering products priced below 10 yuan [7][11]. - The market share of products priced above 30 yuan has fallen to 12%, while those priced between 10-20 yuan account for 58% of the new tea beverage market [7][11]. Competitive Landscape - The new tea beverage industry has entered a phase of rapid expansion, with franchise models becoming crucial for efficiency. Nayuki has only 345 franchise stores compared to competitors like Mixue Ice City, which has 23,000 stores [8][11]. - Nayuki's market presence is diminishing, with a total of 1,798 stores as of the end of 2024, including a reduction of 121 direct stores [8][11]. Strategic Adjustments - Nayuki is attempting to adjust its strategy by closing underperforming stores, launching "Nayuki Green" light food outlets, and lowering franchise investment costs from 980,000 yuan to 580,000 yuan [10][11]. - The company is also exploring international markets, having opened several stores in Southeast Asia, but faces challenges due to limited market capacity and cultural differences in Western markets [10][11]. Industry Trends - The article indicates a fundamental shift in the new tea beverage industry, moving away from capital-driven growth to a focus on efficiency and differentiation [11]. - Brands that fail to establish a unique market position risk being pushed out of the market as competition intensifies [11].