有色金属行业 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 分析师：许正堃 事件：公司发布 2025 年中报，2025 年上半年，公司实现营业收入 1677.11 亿 元，同比增长 11.50%；实现归母净利润 232.92 亿元，同比增长 54.41%；实现 扣非归母净利润 216.24 亿元，同比增长 40.12%。 评 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523120001 点评： 买入（维持） 主营产品量价齐升，公司业绩再创新高 公 司 点 紫金矿业（601899.SH）2025 年中报点评 | 收盘价（元） | 23.08 | | --- | --- | | 总市值（亿元） | 6,134 | | 总股本（亿股） | 265.78 | | 流通 A 股（亿股） | 205.88 | | ROE(TTM) | 16.11% | | 12 月最高价（元） | 23.08 | | 12 月最低价（元） | 13.94 | 2025 年 9 月 1 日 投资要点： 股价走势 告 数据来源：iFind，东莞证券 ...

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 紫金矿业盘中涨超5%，截至发稿，股价上涨4.54%，现报25.80港元，成交额12.27亿港元。 紫金矿业发布截至2025年6月30日止6个月中期业绩，该集团取得营业收入人民币1677.11亿元（单位下 同），同比增加11.5%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润232.92亿元，同比增加54.41%；基本每股收益 0.877元，拟每10股派发现金红利2.2元（含税）。期内，主营矿产品产量稳步提升，公司实现矿产铜57 万吨，同比增长9%；矿产金41吨，同比增长16%，矿产银224吨，同比增长6%；矿产锌（铅）20万吨， 当量碳酸锂7，315吨。得益于量价齐升及成本优化，公司整体矿产品毛利率同比增加3个百分点至 60.23%。 汇丰环球研报指出，引述紫金矿业管理层，预期全年铜及金的成本按年升幅将控制在5%至8%之间，又 相信未来加纳Akyem金矿及新疆紫金黄金项目的黄 ...

在今年一季度归母净利润101.67亿元基础上，紫金矿业二季度业绩再创新高，单季度归母净利润达到了131.25亿元，环比增长约30%。 这一业绩主要得益于金属价格上涨和产量稳步提升。具体来看，公司矿产铜产量达到57万吨，同比增长9%；矿产金产量41吨，同比增长16%；矿产银224 吨，同比增长6%；矿产锌（铅）20万吨，当量碳酸锂7315吨；铁精矿139万吨，同比上升58.0%；矿山产钼5879吨、钨2137吨、钴30吨。 紫金矿业8月26日晚披露2025年半年报显示，2025年上半年实现营业收入1677.11亿元，同比增长11.5%；归母净利润232.92亿元，同比增长54.41%；经营 活动现金流量净额288亿元，同比增长41%。公司拟每10股派发现金红利2.2元（含税），拟分红总额58.5亿元。 在金价走势上，紫金矿业称，全球贸易不确定性延续、地缘政治紧张局势及美元疲软态势将强化市场对黄金配置需求。央行购金需求维持高位，叠加下半 年美联储降息预期升温，黄金资产吸引力进一步提升。 单季归母净利润均超百亿元 受益于金属价格大幅上涨和成本优化，公司整体矿产品毛利率达到60.23%，同比提升3个百分点。其中，铜业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve significant profit growth in the first half of 2025, driven by increased production and favorable commodity prices, alongside strategic moves such as the planned spin-off of a subsidiary for listing in Hong Kong [1][3][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 232 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of about 54% compared to 151 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - For Q2 2025, the expected net profit is around 130 billion yuan, up 27% from 102 billion yuan in Q1 2025 [1]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring items is projected to be about 215 billion yuan, reflecting a 40% year-on-year increase from 154 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Production and Commodity Prices - The company reported production figures for H1 2025: copper at 570,000 tons (+10% YoY), gold at 41 tons (+17% YoY), silver at 223 tons (+6% YoY), and zinc (lead) at 200,000 tons (-9% YoY) [2]. - The average price of gold in Q2 was 770.46 yuan/g, a 15% increase from the previous quarter and a 39% increase year-on-year, while the average copper price was 78,102 yuan/ton, up 0.86% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to spin off its subsidiary, Zijin Gold International, for a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which includes eight world-class gold mines with a total gold reserve of 697 tons and a resource amount of 1,800 tons [3]. - The acquisition of the RG gold mine project for 1.2 billion USD is expected to enhance the asset scale and profitability of Zijin Gold International, further solidifying its position in the global market [4]. Group 4: Profit Forecast - The company anticipates net profits of 452 billion yuan, 505 billion yuan, and 568 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 41%, 12%, and 12% [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [9][14]. Core Views - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of approximately 232 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 54% from 151 billion yuan in the same period last year [3][4]. - The increase in copper and gold prices, along with higher production volumes, is expected to support significant growth in the company's performance [4][9]. - The planned spin-off of the subsidiary, Zijin Gold International, for a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is anticipated to enhance the company's valuation [5][9]. - The acquisition of the RG Gold Mine project for 1.2 billion USD is expected to further strengthen the company's global presence and asset scale [6][9]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 19.14 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 508.7 billion yuan [2]. - The company has a total share capital of 26.578 billion shares, with 20.588 billion shares in circulation [2]. - The company’s debt-to-asset ratio stands at 55.2%, and its price-to-earnings ratio is 15.82 [2]. Financial Projections - For the years 2025 to 2027, the company is expected to see net profits of 452 billion yuan, 505 billion yuan, and 568 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 41%, 12%, and 12% [9][11]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.70 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 11.24 [11][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a record high net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 232 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 54% [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 is projected to yield a net profit of around 130 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of approximately 27% from 102 billion yuan in the first quarter [1]. - The company plans to spin off its overseas gold assets for a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which includes eight world-class gold mines located in South America, Central Asia, Africa, and Oceania [2]. - The company is also set to acquire the RG gold mine in Kazakhstan for a consideration of 1.2 billion USD, which is expected to enhance its gold production capacity significantly [3]. Performance Summary - The average spot price of London gold in the first half of 2025 is expected to be 3,090 USD/ounce, a year-on-year increase of 39.5%, while the average LME copper price is projected at 9,445.5 USD/ton, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [2]. - The company’s copper production for the first half of 2025 is estimated at 570,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10%, and gold production is expected to reach 41 tons, a year-on-year increase of 17% [2]. - The lithium carbonate equivalent production is forecasted to increase by 2,961% year-on-year to 7,315 tons [2]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to 470.6 billion yuan, 546.5 billion yuan, and 622.1 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 47%, 16%, and 14% [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11, 9, and 8 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]. - The report anticipates a continued upward trend in gold and copper prices due to factors such as central bank purchases and supply-demand dynamics in the copper industry [3].

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately RMB 23.2 billion for the first half of 2025, representing an increase of about RMB 8.1 billion or 54% compared to the same period last year [1] Performance Forecast - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately RMB 23.2 billion for the first half of 2025, up from RMB 15.1 billion in the same period last year, an increase of about RMB 8.1 billion or 54% [1] - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is approximately RMB 21.5 billion, an increase of about RMB 6.1 billion or 40% year-on-year [1] Production and Sales Performance - The production volume of key mineral products for the first half of 2025 is as follows: - Copper: 570,000 tons, up 10% from 520,000 tons in the same period last year - Gold: 41 tons, up 17% from 35 tons - Zinc (Lead): 200,000 tons, down 9% from 220,000 tons - Silver: 223 tons, up 6% from 210 tons - Lithium Carbonate Equivalent: 7,315 tons, up 2,961% from 239 tons [1] - The sales prices of gold, copper, zinc, and silver have increased year-on-year during the reporting period [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zijin Mining [6] Core Views - In 2024, Zijin Mining achieved a revenue of 303.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.49%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 32.05 billion yuan, up 51.76% year-on-year, benefiting from high copper and gold prices [1][2] - The company expects stable growth in production capacity, with guidance for 2025 indicating copper production of 1.15 million tons and gold production of 85 tons, supported by ongoing expansion projects [3] - The company is positioned to benefit from macroeconomic trends and rising commodity prices, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 of 40.16 billion, 44.03 billion, and 47.23 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 11.9, 10.9, and 10.2 [3][5] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 73.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, while net profit was approximately 7.69 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 55.28% [1][2] - The average copper price in Q4 2024 was 75,000 yuan per ton, while gold averaged 2,662 USD per ounce, showing a 7.6% increase quarter-on-quarter [2] - The company’s total revenue for 2023 was 293.40 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 328.64 billion yuan for 2025, indicating a growth rate of 8.9% [5][10] Production and Capacity - The company’s copper production reached 1.07 million tons in 2024, with significant contributions from new mining projects [2][3] - The production guidance for 2025 includes 1.15 million tons of copper and 85 tons of gold, indicating a focus on expanding core product lines [3] Market Position and Strategy - Zijin Mining is expanding its portfolio through strategic acquisitions, including a controlling stake in Zangge Mining, which enhances its lithium and potassium resource capabilities [3] - The company is leveraging its strong market position to capitalize on rising commodity prices and increasing demand, positioning itself for sustained growth [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market index by more than 15% over the next six months [4][7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 303.64 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.49%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 32.05 billion yuan, up 51.76% year-on-year [4]. - The company's main metal production saw significant increases, with copper production at 1.07 million tons and gold production at 73 tons, reflecting growth rates of 6% and 8% respectively [4]. - The company has made substantial progress in resource exploration, with significant discoveries in various regions, enhancing its resource reserves and production capacity [4]. - The report anticipates continued growth in copper and gold prices, driven by supply disruptions and increasing demand from the renewable energy sector, which supports the company's revenue growth outlook [4]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 20.37%, an increase of 4.56 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 12.97%, up 3.92 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The forecast for 2025 and 2026 projects earnings per share of 1.44 yuan and 1.75 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 12.57 and 10.34 [5].