出版子板块的高分红属性突出，稳定性在传媒板块中突出。出版作为牌照行业，龙头公司毛利率整体在 30%-40%之间，净利率为10%左右，ROE 普遍在8%以上。出版板块的行业竞争格局较为清晰，基本每 个省都有1 家或以上的出版集团，兼具出版、发行的功能，除正常的图书出版之外，教材、教辅的出 版、发行业务是出版标的普遍的主营业务之一。 投资建议：考虑到山东出版的龙头地位，以及业务的特色、创新点，我们预判其经营的稳健性与扎实性 突出。我们预计公司2025-2027 年分别实现归母净利润16.74/17.81/18.71 亿元，对应PE 分别为10/9/9 倍。首次覆盖，给予公司"推荐"评级。 风险提示：教材教辅市场的政策性变化、新出生人口持续低于预期、AI 等技术投入增加的成本费用超 预期的风险。 出版主业，打造鲁版图书品牌矩阵；教育出版，巩固服务优势，拓展产品业务渠道，构建教育出版"研 发-出版-发行-服务"全产业链条；充分发挥书店集团发行主渠道作用，打造特色阅读品牌的同时，挖掘 传统文化、红色文化和地域特色，定制化开发符合市场需求的研学产品。 科技赋能驱动数智融合。1）融合出版社和书店集团新媒体营销力量，打造新媒 ...

Core Insights - The demand for domestic travel among residents has been consistently strong, with 3.285 billion trips and total spending reaching 3.15 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, setting a new record [1] Group 1: Tourism Product Supply Characteristics - The supply of high-quality tourism products has become more abundant, with 58 new 5A-level tourist attractions and approximately 2,600 new A-level attractions, bringing the total to 16,500, with a county coverage rate of 97% [2] - The "fusion" products have emerged as a highlight, integrating tourism with agriculture, industry, and sports, thereby extending the industrial chain and creating new growth points [2] - The "technological" aspect of products has significantly enhanced, with the development of smart tourism and the introduction of AI robots and exoskeleton devices in scenic areas to improve visitor experiences [3] - The emergence of "specialized" products caters to diverse and personalized demands, with a notable increase in tourism trains, which saw a 26% year-on-year growth in the first eight months of the year [3] Group 2: Upcoming Travel Trends - With the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day approaching, a surge in travel is expected, particularly in popular cities like Shanghai, Chengdu, and Beijing, with outbound tourism to Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia anticipated to rise significantly [5] - Despite the growth, challenges exist, such as the blind development of tourism projects without considering local resources, leading to inefficiencies and waste [5] - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism plans to work with relevant departments to address these issues and optimize tourism product supply to support high-quality development in the industry [5]

Core Insights - The demand for domestic travel among residents has been consistently strong, with projections indicating 3.285 billion trips and total spending of 3.15 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, setting a new record [2] Group 1: Tourism Development Achievements - The supply of high-quality tourism products has significantly increased, with 58 new 5A-level tourist attractions and approximately 2,600 new A-level attractions, bringing the total to 16,500, with county coverage reaching 97% [3] - The integration of tourism with other sectors has become a highlight, promoting "Tourism+" initiatives that combine tourism with agriculture, industry, and sports, thereby extending the industry chain and creating new growth points [3] - The enhancement of technological features in tourism products is evident, with the development of smart tourism solutions and the introduction of AI robots and exoskeleton devices in scenic areas to improve visitor experiences [4] Group 2: Upcoming Travel Trends - With the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day approaching, a surge in travel is expected, particularly in popular cities such as Shanghai, Chengdu, and Beijing, with outbound tourism to countries like Japan and South Korea anticipated to increase significantly [5] - Despite the growth in the tourism sector, challenges remain, including the mismanagement of resources and ineffective tourism projects, prompting the Ministry of Culture and Tourism to take corrective actions [5]

Group 1 - The core event is the Hangzhou Urban Circle 2025 Cultural Tourism Promotion Conference held in Taiyuan, Shanxi, aimed at enhancing cultural tourism collaboration between the two regions [1][3] - The event featured diverse activities including thematic promotions, artistic performances, and cultural displays, showcasing the rich cultural heritage and tourism resources of the Hangzhou Urban Circle [3][5] - Hangzhou, known as "Heaven on Earth," integrates its 8,000-year-old Cross-Lake Bridge culture, 5,000-year-old Liangzhu civilization, and other historical cultures into its identity, making it an ideal destination for youth educational trips [3][5] Group 2 - The promotion included performances such as the Shao Opera Monkey Play "The Monkey King" and classic Huizhou opera segments, providing an auditory and visual feast for attendees [5] - The Hangzhou Urban Circle introduced various educational tourism products and over ten travel routes, emphasizing the integration of technology and cultural tourism [5] - The urban circle consists of seven cities: Hangzhou, Jiaxing, Huzhou, Shaoxing, Quzhou from Zhejiang Province, and Huangshan, Xuancheng from Anhui Province [5]

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformation of Gansu's cultural tourism through the introduction of new air routes, enhancing connectivity and travel experiences for tourists [1][2][4]. Group 1: Transportation Development - Gansu's new air routes, including Lanzhou-Jinchang-JiaYuGuan and Lanzhou-Zhangye-Dunhuang, are designed to address the long-standing issue of "long travel, short enjoyment" by significantly reducing travel time between key tourist destinations [2][4]. - The introduction of these routes has led to a substantial increase in passenger traffic, with the Lanzhou-Jinchang-JiaYuGuan route recording 91,400 passengers and the Lanzhou-Zhangye-Dunhuang route achieving 38,300 passengers [4]. Group 2: Market Optimization - The Gansu Provincial Airport Group is focusing on optimizing intermodal transport services, enhancing the passenger experience with features like "one ticket, one check-in, and direct baggage handling" [6]. - The occupancy rate of the new routes has improved from 60% to over 75%, indicating a growing preference for air travel among the public [6]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The new air routes are not only facilitating tourism but also stimulating local economies by increasing demand for services such as dining, accommodation, and transportation [7]. - The influx of tourists is driving the sales of local products, such as colored metals from Jinchang and highland vegetables from Zhangye, thereby enhancing regional economic vitality [7][8]. Group 4: Future Plans - The Gansu Provincial Airport Group plans to expand its air network further, with new routes connecting to eastern regions and neighboring provinces, aiming to create a comprehensive aviation network that enhances accessibility to cultural sites [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The current state of the educational travel market is facing significant challenges, with many industry players reporting a decline in business and a shift in consumer behavior towards more cost-effective and meaningful experiences [6][15][35]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The educational travel market is experiencing a downturn, with many operators expressing that 2025 will be the coldest year for the sector [6]. - Reports indicate that ticket sales for popular attractions, such as the China Science and Technology Museum, have drastically decreased, reflecting a broader trend of reduced demand in the educational travel sector [8][10]. - Hotel operators are also feeling the impact, with some reporting no educational travel groups this year compared to a bustling previous year [11][13]. Group 2: Changing Consumer Behavior - Parents are tightening their budgets, leading to a significant shift in spending patterns for educational travel, with many opting for local experiences instead of international trips [18][21]. - The focus has shifted from large family trips to more economical options, such as independent camps where only one child's fee is paid [18]. - There is a growing emphasis on the quality and value of educational content, with parents becoming more discerning about the benefits of such programs [22][25]. Group 3: Safety Concerns - Increased safety awareness among parents and schools has led to a preference for domestic educational travel options, as concerns about international safety incidents have risen [27][29]. - The collective anxiety regarding safety has resulted in a more cautious approach from parents, schools, and educational institutions, further constraining the market [30][31]. Group 4: Future Directions - The educational travel industry must adapt to the new reality by focusing on genuine educational value and aligning offerings with real consumer needs [35][36]. - Innovative and immersive educational experiences, such as nature education and outdoor activities, are likely to gain traction as traditional models become less appealing [38]. - The industry is shifting from a resource-based competition to one that emphasizes content quality and effective communication to attract customers [40][42].

Core Viewpoint - The summer of 2025 has seen a significant downturn in the study tour market, with many industry players reporting a drastic decline in business compared to previous years, indicating a shift in consumer behavior and spending priorities [3][19][22]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The study tour market in Beijing and southern regions is experiencing a severe slump, with reports of empty bookings and a lack of demand for educational trips [11][12][15]. - High-end family study tours abroad are also facing challenges, with a reported 40% drop in business due to financial cutbacks among affluent families [20][21]. - The overall sentiment among industry professionals is one of frustration, with many expressing that this summer is the most challenging they have faced in years [5][6][19]. Group 2: Changing Consumer Behavior - Parents are tightening their budgets, leading to a shift in spending patterns where independent study programs are preferred over family-inclusive trips [23][24]. - There is a noticeable trend of families opting for local travel experiences instead of international study tours, with popular destinations shifting from abroad to domestic locations [26][28]. - The perception of value in study tours has changed, with parents now scrutinizing the educational content and outcomes more critically than before [29][33]. Group 3: Safety Concerns - Increased safety awareness among parents and schools has led to a preference for domestic study tours, as concerns about international travel risks have heightened [36][40]. - The combination of parental anxiety and institutional caution has resulted in a more conservative approach to organizing study tours, with safety becoming a primary consideration [41][42]. Group 4: Industry Evolution - The study tour industry is transitioning from a focus on quantity to quality, with a need for programs that genuinely meet educational needs rather than superficial experiences [45][46]. - Future study tours are expected to emphasize immersive and experiential learning, moving away from traditional "checklist" approaches [48][55]. - Companies must adapt to new marketing strategies, leveraging social media and direct consumer engagement to attract clients, as traditional methods become less effective [51][54].

Core Insights - Shaanxi Province has launched over 1,200 summer cultural and tourism activities, including 2,792 events and 111 premium summer travel routes, with a total value of over 20 million yuan in summer benefit vouchers for tourists [1][2] Group 1: Summer Activities - The province has organized 1,216 cultural and tourism activities, including 268 educational tourism activities, 87 family vacation activities, and 62 rural tourism activities [1] - Five premium travel routes have been created, focusing on summer scenery, folk customs, rural beauty, family vacations, and red memory [1] Group 2: Educational Tourism - A variety of high-quality educational tourism products have been tailored for students, covering themes such as historical culture and red memory [2] - Museums and cultural venues across the province are offering experiential activities to enhance learning through travel [2] Group 3: Summer Experiences - Diverse and immersive summer tourism experiences are being promoted, including 126 unique activities such as Hanfu shows, stargazing, and night boat tours [2] - Local experiences include 75 rural tourism activities and 83 water-related summer activities, allowing visitors to enjoy local cuisine and nature [2] Group 4: Consumer Incentives - The Shaanxi cultural tourism benefit platform will distribute discount vouchers for performances and attractions, with various forms of incentives to stimulate tourism consumption [2]