讲究 所 行业轮动ETF策略周报 证券分析师:张一 S0670524030001 010-83270999-97050 zhangyi@cnht. com. cn 2025年11月24日 证券分析师:李杜 S0670524040001 021-50800937 l idu@cnht. com. cn 策略说明: · 金融街证券研究所基于策略报告《行业轮动下的策略组合报告:基于行业风格延续和 切换视角下的定量分析》(20241007)和《股票型ETF市场概览与配置方法研究:以基 于行业轮动策略的ETF组合为例》(20241013),构建基于行业和主题ETF的策略组合。 策略更新: | 基金代码 | ETF名称 | ETF市值 | 持有情况 | 重仓申万 行业 | | 周度择时信号 日度择时信号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (亿元) | | 及权重 | 参考 | 参考 | | 159227 | 航空航天ETF | 19.88 | 继续持有 | 航空装备 (59.16%) | -1 | -1 | | 159667 | 工业母机ETF | 5 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.07% and the ChiNext Index down 0.39% [1] - The photovoltaic industry chain and nuclear fusion concepts saw significant declines, while the insurance, pharmaceutical, and banking sectors showed strength [1] Sector Performance - Agricultural Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China both reached new highs, with Agricultural Bank's market value surpassing 3 trillion yuan [1] - The innovative drug sector rebounded across the board, with notable increases in ETFs such as the Jiashi Fund's S&P Biotechnology ETF (up 3.61%), Yinhua Fund's Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (up 3.14%), and Huatai-PB Fund's Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (up 3.1%) [1] - The Hong Kong dividend sector continued its recent upward trend, with Penghua Fund's Hang Seng Central Enterprise ETF rising 2.48% and GF Fund's Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF increasing by 2.35% [1] ETF Performance - The photovoltaic sector's decline narrowed, with the Kexin New Energy ETF, Photovoltaic ETF Index Fund, and Kexin Board New Energy ETF down 4.68%, 4.42%, and 4.32% respectively [1] - The new materials sector also followed the downward trend, with Kexin New Materials ETF and Kexin Materials ETF down 2.48% and 2.43% respectively [1]

Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing significant growth, with major indices and ETFs showing positive performance, indicating a bullish market sentiment [3][6][10] - Domestic semiconductor companies are making strides in various segments, including EDA, packaging, and high-end testing equipment, reflecting a rapid advancement in self-sufficiency [9][10] - Major acquisitions in the AI infrastructure sector, particularly by Nvidia and its partners, highlight the competitive landscape and the increasing demand for AI-related semiconductor components [9][10] Semiconductor Industry Performance - The China Securities Semiconductor Industry Index rose by 1.05%, with notable gains from stocks like Juxin (+9.28%) and Jinhaitong (+8.03%) [3] - The Semiconductor Industry ETF (159582) increased by 0.98%, reaching a price of 2.16 yuan, with a cumulative rise of 0.33% for the month as of October 15, 2025 [3] - The trading volume for the Semiconductor Industry ETF was 28.09 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 6.78% [3] AI and Semiconductor Integration - Nvidia, Microsoft, xAI, and BlackRock's acquisition of Aligned for $40 billion marks a significant move in the AI infrastructure race, emphasizing the need for advanced semiconductor solutions [9][10] - This acquisition is expected to drive investments in upstream chip production, optical modules, power supplies, and cooling systems [9] Mergers and Acquisitions - Chip Origin plans to acquire 100% of Zhudian Semiconductor for 950 million yuan, enhancing its capabilities in AI chip technology [9][10] - This merger aims to strengthen the competitive edge in AI-ISP, GPU, and NPU technologies, expanding the ecosystem for intelligent terminals and cloud computing [9] Market Trends and Predictions - The recent breakthroughs in the semiconductor sector, combined with the acquisition trends in AI infrastructure, are expected to bolster the outlook for semiconductor equipment and materials [10] - The domestic semiconductor industry's self-sufficiency is being accelerated by government support and market demand, indicating a new upward cycle for the sector [10] - Long-term growth potential remains strong in the AI sector, with expectations for accelerated domestic semiconductor supply chain development [10]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a strategy based on sector rotation and thematic ETFs, recommending increased allocations to semiconductor, consumer electronics, and battery sectors for the upcoming week [2][3]. - The strategy has yielded a cumulative net return of approximately 1.52% from September 29 to October 9, 2025, with an excess return of about 0.06% compared to the CSI 300 ETF [3]. Strategy Update - The model recommends adding positions in the Sci-Tech Chip ETF, Consumer Electronics ETF, Sci-Tech New Materials ETF, and Smart Car ETF, while continuing to hold the Satellite ETF [2]. - The report highlights the trading timing signals for various ETFs and indices, indicating daily or weekly risk assessments [2]. Performance Tracking - Since October 14, 2024, the strategy has achieved a cumulative return of approximately 26.66%, outperforming the CSI 300 ETF by about 5.05% [3]. - The report includes a performance comparison chart showing the cumulative return rates of the sector rotation ETF strategy against the CSI 300 ETF [5][6]. Recommended ETFs and Holdings - The report lists specific ETFs and their respective weights, such as the Sci-Tech Chip ETF with a weight of 96.34% and the Consumer Electronics ETF with a weight of 31.89% [13]. - It also details the recent performance of various ETFs, indicating which have been added or removed from the portfolio based on their performance over the past week [14].

Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Chip Index rose by 1.68%, with key stocks such as Chip Origin Co., Ltd. increasing by 20.00% and Shengke Communication by 9.27% [3] - The semiconductor industry ETF (159582) also saw a strong increase of 1.03%, with notable gains from Tianyue Advanced and Huafeng Measurement Control [6] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board New Materials Index experienced a decline of 0.68%, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [8] Group 2: ETF Performance - The Sci-Tech Chip ETF (588990) recorded a nearly 9.45% increase over the past week, indicating strong market activity with a turnover rate of 18.92% and a transaction volume of 136 million yuan [3] - The Semiconductor Industry ETF (159582) had a weekly increase of 8.44%, with a turnover rate of 11.15% and a transaction volume of 23.72 million yuan [6] - The Sci-Tech New Materials ETF (588010) saw a slight decline of 0.87%, but had a notable weekly increase of 11.94% [8] Group 3: Technological Developments - At the recent Optical Expo, leading domestic optical communication companies proposed CPC (Co-Packaged Copper Interconnect) technology, which significantly reduces transmission power consumption and addresses maintenance challenges [9] - A senior Chinese government advisor emphasized the need for China to develop independent chip technology to reduce reliance on NVIDIA accelerators in the AI field [9] - NVIDIA's supply chain has seen multiple advancements, including the global delivery of servers equipped with NVIDIA's Blackwell Ultra solutions [9] Group 4: Investment Insights - The focus remains on AI computing power and domestic substitution, with advanced packaging and connection technologies like CPC expected to penetrate AI infrastructure [10] - The continuous innovation within NVIDIA's ecosystem is driving the evolution of servers and AI hardware [10] - The domestic chip replacement process may receive dual support from policy and capital, highlighting the importance of self-sufficiency in technology [10] Group 5: ETF Composition and Weighting - The Sci-Tech Chip ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Chip Index, which includes companies involved in semiconductor materials, equipment, and applications [11] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Sci-Tech Chip Index account for 62.02% of the index, indicating a concentrated investment in key players [11] - The Semiconductor Industry ETF tracks the China Securities Semiconductor Industry Index, with the top ten weighted stocks comprising 77.73% of the index [12]

Industry Trends - The semiconductor industry is experiencing positive momentum, with the China Semiconductor Industry Index rising by 0.46% as of August 25, 2025, and notable gains in individual stocks such as Haiguang Information (up 11.61%) and Shengmei Shanghai (up 6.36%) [2] - The global semiconductor market reached a size of $180 billion in Q2 2025, reflecting a 7.8% increase from Q1 2025 and a significant 19.6% year-over-year growth [10] - The upcoming Nvidia earnings report is anticipated to influence market sentiment, particularly regarding AI hardware demand [10] ETF Performance - The Semiconductor Industry ETF (159582) has seen a recent increase in trading activity, with a turnover rate of 34.44% and a total transaction volume of 68.94 million yuan [2] - The Sci-Tech Chip ETF (588990) reported a 1.63% increase in the Sci-Tech Chip Index, with a recent net inflow of 24.82 million yuan [6][18] - The Sci-Tech New Materials ETF (588010) has shown a 0.22% increase, with a recent trading volume of 27.57 million yuan [9] Fund Metrics - The Semiconductor Industry ETF has achieved a one-year net value increase of 81.00%, ranking 413 out of 2971 in its category [12] - The Sci-Tech Chip ETF has a one-year net value increase of 119.67%, ranking 43 out of 2971 [18] - The Sci-Tech New Materials ETF has a one-year net value increase of 79.12%, ranking 458 out of 2971 [23] Fund Characteristics - The Semiconductor Industry ETF has a management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10%, which are among the lowest in its category [15] - The Sci-Tech Chip ETF also has a management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [20] - The Sci-Tech New Materials ETF maintains the same fee structure, indicating competitive pricing [26]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the Sci-Tech Innovation Materials ETF (588010) has shown significant growth, driven by strong earnings from key component stocks and favorable market conditions in the new materials sector [2][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of July 24, 2025, the Sci-Tech Innovation Materials Index (000689) rose by 1.18%, with constituent stocks such as Tonglian Precision (688210) increasing by 8.74% and Yunlu Co. (688190) by 6.02% [2]. - The Sci-Tech Innovation Materials ETF has seen a weekly increase of 2.54% as of July 23, 2025, with a trading volume of 3.06 million yuan and a turnover rate of 1.2% [2]. - Over the past year, the ETF's average daily trading volume was 26.73 million yuan, ranking it first among comparable funds [2]. Group 2: Company Earnings - Xiamen Tungsten Co. (厦钨新能) reported a stable growth in its first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 7.534 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.04%, and a net profit of 307 million yuan, up 27.76% [2]. - The company benefited from national subsidy policies and increased demand for lithium cobalt oxide due to advancements in 3C consumer devices, achieving a sales volume of 28,800 tons, a 56.64% increase year-on-year [2]. Group 3: Industry Trends - Dongwu Securities noted that the net profit per ton of lithium cobalt oxide has risen to over 10,000 yuan per ton due to increasing cobalt prices, enhancing profitability [3]. - The establishment of China Fusion Energy Co. on July 22, 2025, with an investment of 11.5 billion yuan from seven state-owned enterprises, indicates a clear long-term trend in the controllable nuclear fusion industry, with expected growth in orders for upstream component manufacturers [3]. Group 4: ETF Metrics - The Sci-Tech Innovation Materials ETF has seen a significant scale increase of 3.1234 million yuan over the past week, ranking it in the top third among comparable funds [3]. - As of July 23, 2025, the ETF's net value has increased by 44.67% over the past year, with a maximum monthly return of 26.66% since inception [3]. - The ETF's Sharpe ratio for the past year is 1.15, indicating a favorable risk-adjusted return [4].