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【窩輪透視】中芯急跌4%觸發買入信號?技術反彈行情的窩輪挑選技巧
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-10 16:38
Group 1 - The semiconductor sector experienced a mixed performance, with SMIC (00981) dropping 4.11% to close at HKD 68.85, with a trading volume of HKD 4.608 billion, indicating significant capital speculation [1] - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) saw a decline of 5.41%, while ASM Pacific (00522) increased by 1.61%, highlighting the divergence in stock performance within the sector [1] - Technical indicators for individual stocks show varied signals, with Hua Hong Semiconductor's RSI at 52 indicating a "buy" signal, but its moving average is neutral, suggesting uncertainty in the short-term trend [1] Group 2 - The historical performance of related warrants indicates that when the underlying stock declines, put warrants and bear certificates can benefit significantly, as seen with the notable gains of various products following SMIC's stock drop [3][6] - The core logic of warrants indicates that when the underlying stock rises, call warrants and bull certificates will also rise, while put warrants and bear certificates perform better during declines, with higher leverage potentially leading to greater returns [7] - Recommendations for investors include selecting warrants with lower premiums and reasonable implied volatility to mitigate cost risks, especially in a market focused on technical rebounds without strong earnings support [8]
11月7日【港股Podcast】恆指、華虹半導體 、中海油 、嗶哩嗶哩、中國移動 、贛鋒鋰業
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-09 20:29
Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) experienced a slight decline, closing at 26,241 points, which is a minor drop of less than 1% after a significant rise the previous day [1][2] - Technical signals indicate a majority "sell" signal, with support around 25,700 points and resistance at approximately 26,700 points, suggesting a potential trading range of about 1,000 points [2] - Investors are advised to choose safer products with recovery prices further from the current levels, such as 25,600 or 25,500 for bullish options, and above 26,700 for bearish options [2] Group 2 - Semiconductor company Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK) showed a slight price drop, closing at 79.45 HKD, with support at around 73 HKD and resistance at 87.5 HKD [6] - Technical signals for Hua Hong indicate a slight majority of "buy" signals, with 8 buy signals compared to 6 sell signals [6][10] - CNOOC (00883.HK) is experiencing an upward trend, closing at 21.18 HKD, with resistance at 21.6 HKD and potential for further gains if it breaks this level [12][16] Group 3 - Bilibili (09626.HK) is showing weak performance, closing at 216 HKD, with potential further declines to 205 HKD if the downward trend continues [18] - China Mobile (00941.HK) is performing well, closing at 87.15 HKD, close to the upper Bollinger Band, with resistance at 88.1 HKD [19][22] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) closed at 52.7 HKD, near the upper Bollinger Band, with resistance at 55.9 HKD and a prevailing "sell" signal in the market [24][27]
11月7日【輪證短評】:泡泡瑪特、中金公司、中國財險、小米集團
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-09 19:43
Core Viewpoint - The analysis focuses on the performance and investment opportunities related to specific stocks, including their price trends, resistance levels, and available financial products. Group 1: Bubble Mart (09992) - Bubble Mart's stock price has been on a downward trend, currently around 200 HKD, down from previous highs of 339 HKD and 270 HKD in mid-October [1] - The stock's RSI indicator is low at approximately 17, indicating a potentially oversold condition [1] - Investors are generally bearish, with some holding bearish warrants, and the resistance level is identified at 235 HKD, with potential upward movement to 268 HKD if breached [3] Group 2: CICC (03908) - CICC's stock price has recently decreased to around 20.26 HKD, down from previous highs above 23 HKD [4] - Investors anticipate further declines, with a support level at 19.6 HKD, and a potential drop to 17.6 HKD if this level is breached [4] - Limited product options are available around the 19 HKD mark, with only one product at an exercise price of 18 HKD [7] Group 3: China Pacific Insurance (02328) - China Pacific Insurance's stock has shown positive momentum, closing at 19.28 HKD, close to the upper band of the Bollinger Bands at approximately 19.43 HKD [8] - If the stock continues to rise, it may reach resistance levels of 19.7 HKD and potentially 20.4 HKD [8] - There are several products available with expiration dates in February and March of the following year, with some being in-the-money and others out-of-the-money [11] Group 4: Xiaomi Group (01810) - Xiaomi's stock price has been disappointing, closing at 42.24 HKD, with some investors predicting further declines to 40 HKD or even 30 HKD [12] - The first support level is at 40.6 HKD, and if breached, the next support level is around 37.6 HKD [12] - Currently, there are no products with an exercise price of 40 HKD, but there are options available at 52 HKD and 37 HKD [15]
11月6日【港股Podcast】恆指、騰訊控股、中芯國際、匯豐控股、紫金礦業 、比亞迪股份
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-07 08:17
Group 1: Hang Seng Index (HSI) - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose to 26,485 points, showing a significant increase, but trading volume did not see a corresponding rise, which is a point of concern for investors [1][2] - Investors are speculating that the index could reach 26,700 points, as there are concerns about the potential recall of bear certificates in that range [2] - Some investors are betting on a market correction due to the recent gains, purchasing bear certificates close to the recall price, which poses a risk of being recalled easily [3][4] Group 2: Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) - Tencent's stock price increased to 644 HKD, aligning with the overall market trend, but investor sentiment is polarized with some waiting for a drop to 620 HKD [11][12] - The technical signals for Tencent are currently neutral, indicating no clear trend direction, with resistance levels at 661 HKD and 683 HKD for potential upward movement [12] - Investors are advised to choose call options with exercise prices closer to the current market price to mitigate risks associated with distant exercise prices [12] Group 3: SMIC (00981.HK) - SMIC's stock price rose to 76.95 HKD, with increased trading volume indicating positive market sentiment [19] - Investors are considering bull certificates with a recall price of 66 HKD, which offers a safety cushion with support levels at 71.4 HKD and 66.9 HKD [19] Group 4: HSBC Holdings (00005.HK) - HSBC's stock price reached 110 HKD, nearing previous highs, with a notable increase in trading volume [25] - Current technical signals indicate a predominance of sell signals, suggesting a potential for short-term correction after breaking the upper Bollinger Band [25] - Resistance levels are identified at 114.1 HKD and 118.2 HKD, while support levels are at 106.2 HKD and 102 HKD [25] Group 5: Zijin Mining (02899.HK) - Zijin Mining's stock price is at 32.06 HKD, approaching the middle line of the Bollinger Band, with resistance at 33.9 HKD [32] Group 6: BYD Company (01211.HK) - BYD's stock price has rebounded to 97.65 HKD after a period of decline, with a strong buy signal in the short term [34] - The resistance level is at 103.3 HKD, and if broken, the price could rise to 108.3 HKD, while support is at 93.1 HKD [35]
11月5日【港股Podcast】恆指、美團、網易、寧德時代、兗礦能源、蜜雪集團
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-06 13:21
Group 1: Hang Seng Index - The Hang Seng Index showed a slight increase but with disappointing performance overall, with a trading volume that continued to decrease [1] - Technical signals for the Hang Seng Index are predominantly "buy," with four buy signals and fewer sell signals, indicating a slight bullish sentiment in the short term [1] - Support levels are estimated around 25326 points, close to the mentioned 25400 points, while resistance is around 26400 points [1] Group 2: Meituan-W (03690.HK) - Meituan's closing price is 101.2 HKD, having returned above 100 HKD, but the stock has been relatively stable with a significant decline from previous highs of around 186 HKD [3] - The potential support level is around 97.1 HKD, and if it falls below 97 HKD, it could drop to 92 HKD or even 88 HKD based on Bollinger Bands calculations [3] Group 3: NetEase-S (09999.HK) - NetEase closed at 217.4 HKD, having reached a high of 248 HKD, and is currently holding above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands [4] - The resistance level is calculated at 227 HKD, and if this is surpassed, it could rise to 237 HKD, indicating a potential upward movement of about 10 HKD [4] Group 4: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. (03750.HK) - The stock price of Contemporary Amperex is currently at 547.5 HKD, fluctuating within a narrow range of 530-580 HKD [5] - Technical signals are neutral, suggesting a lack of clear direction, and investors are advised to wait for clearer trends before making decisions [5] Group 5: Yancoal Energy (01171.HK) - Yancoal Energy's closing price is 11.38 HKD, with a resistance level at 11.8 HKD, and if this is broken, it could rise to 12.2 HKD [7] - There is a possibility of the stock dropping back to around 10 HKD, with a support level at 10.08 HKD [7] Group 6: Mixue Group (02097.HK) - Mixue Group's closing price is 400.6 HKD, with a resistance level at 428 HKD, indicating potential for a rise above 420 HKD [8] - The technical signals are predominantly "buy," with 11 buy signals compared to 4 sell signals, suggesting a favorable outlook [8]
11月3日【港股Podcast】恆指、小米集團、中海油、蔚來、快手、港交所
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-04 19:51
Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,158 points, near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands at 26,163 points, indicating a potential for slight upward movement if trading volume increases [1][2] - Investors are divided, with bullish investors targeting levels between 26,300 and 26,500, while bearish investors see strong resistance at 26,200, predicting a potential drop of 300 points [1][2] - Current resistance is estimated at around 26,600 points, with a possibility of reaching 26,679 points if the index breaks through this level [2] Group 2 - Xiaomi's stock price rose slightly to 44.72 HKD, with a first resistance level at 48.1 HKD, and a potential upward movement towards 53.8 HKD if this level is breached [9][10] - Technical signals for Xiaomi show 11 buy signals and 6 sell signals, indicating a slightly positive short-term outlook [9][10] - The support level for Xiaomi is around 42.6 HKD, and if it falls below this, it could drop to 40 HKD [9][10] Group 3 - CNOOC's stock price closed at 20.46 HKD, close to the upper Bollinger Band, with a support level at 19.7 HKD [14] - If CNOOC's stock price drops below 19.7 HKD, it may further decline to 19.2 HKD [14] Group 4 - NIO's stock price increased to 56.9 HKD, with a resistance level at 59.9 HKD, and a potential rise to 63.2 HKD if this level is surpassed [18] - Investors are advised to choose options with a strike price about 10% out of the money and longer expiration dates for better safety [18] Group 5 - Kuaishou's stock price closed at 73.45 HKD, with a resistance level at 78.2 HKD, and a potential rise to 85.7 HKD if this level is broken [25][26] - Technical signals indicate 10 buy signals and 5 sell signals, suggesting a slightly positive short-term outlook [25][26] Group 6 - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) closed at 428.8 HKD, with a resistance level at 439 HKD, and a potential rise to 449 HKD if this level is breached [32] - Technical signals show 9 buy signals and 5 sell signals, indicating a slight preference for buying [32]
10月23日【港股Podcast】恆指、京東、藥明生物、百度、中國聯通、李寧
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-24 05:09
Group 1: Hang Seng Index (HSI) Analysis - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) experienced a slight increase of 0.72%, closing at 25,967 points, just below the 26,000 mark [1] - Market sentiment is mixed, with both bullish and bearish perspectives present, which is a normal market phenomenon [1] - Technical signals indicate a predominance of "sell" signals, with 8 sell signals compared to 6 buy signals, suggesting a cautious outlook [1] - The support level for HSI is around 25,400 points; if it falls below this, it may drop further to 24,600 points [2] - The resistance level is approximately 26,500 points, and investors are advised to consider bear certificates with a redemption price around 26,400 points [2] Group 2: JD Group (09618) Analysis - JD Group's stock closed at 128.7 yuan, with a support level at 124.3 yuan; a drop below this could lead to further declines to 117.7 yuan [9] - Some investors anticipate a rise to around 130 yuan before considering bearish positions, aligning with the current technical signals that favor buying [10] - The short-term resistance level for JD is approximately 135 yuan, indicating potential upward movement before any bearish actions [10] Group 3: WuXi Biologics (02269) Analysis - WuXi Biologics' stock has shown a slight decline with increased trading volume, indicating a potential buying opportunity [15] - The current support level is around 33.8 yuan; if this level is breached, the stock may drop to 30 yuan [15] - Despite the bearish sentiment, short-term technical signals are predominantly "buy," suggesting a favorable buying atmosphere [15] Group 4: Baidu Group (09888) Analysis - Baidu's stock is in a stable consolidation phase, with a support level at 111.3 yuan; a drop below this could lead to further declines to 98.4 yuan [21] - The short-term technical signals favor buying, with 10 buy signals against 5 sell signals, indicating potential for upward movement [21] - Investors are advised to consider bull certificates with a redemption price around 80 yuan for added safety [21] Group 5: China Unicom (00762) Analysis - China Unicom's stock closed at 9.39 yuan, near the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands, with a resistance level at 9.67 yuan [27] - A breakthrough of the 9.67 yuan resistance could lead to further increases towards 9.85 yuan, but reaching 10 yuan may take time [27] - The short-term technical signals are neutral, indicating no clear direction for price movement [27] Group 6: Li Ning (02331) Analysis - Li Ning's stock has shown strong performance, with a resistance level at 19.6 yuan; breaking this could lead to further increases towards 19.8 yuan [33] - The current technical signals are neutral, suggesting a lack of clear upward or downward momentum [33] - Investors are encouraged to monitor market trends and consider various sources of information for informed decision-making [33]
10月22日【輪證短評】東方航空、石藥集團、紫金礦業、騰訊
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-23 08:08
Group 1: Eastern Airlines (00670) - Eastern Airlines has shown a strong upward trend, with the stock price increasing for six consecutive days and trading near the upper Bollinger Band [2][3] - The trading volume has significantly increased over the past six days, indicating strong investor interest [2] - Currently, there are limited options for call warrants related to Eastern Airlines, with no suitable products available in the market [2][3] - Technical signals suggest a "sell" strategy for short-term operations, despite the recent price increase [3] Group 2: CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093) - CSPC Pharmaceutical has experienced a noticeable decline, with the stock price dropping to around 8.46 HKD, having previously attempted to reach the middle line of the Bollinger Band [5] - The stock may potentially drop to around 8 HKD, with a support level estimated at approximately 8.1 HKD [5] - There are limited put warrant options available, with only two products having a distant exercise price of 6.5 HKD, which is not advisable for investors expecting further declines [6] Group 3: Zijin Mining (02899) - Zijin Mining's stock price has also seen a significant drop, closing at 31.8 HKD, approaching the lower Bollinger Band [8] - Investors are currently adopting a wait-and-see approach, with a target entry point around 30 HKD, close to the support level of 29.3 HKD [8] - There are available call warrants with exercise prices around 28 HKD, 29 HKD, and 30 HKD, but caution is advised regarding products with short expiration dates [9] Group 4: Tencent (0700) - Tencent offers a wide range of derivative products, including call and put warrants, providing ample options for investors [13][14] - Investors holding call warrants with an exercise price of around 800 HKD should be cautious, as this represents a significant out-of-the-money position, approximately 29% to 30% away from the current stock price [14] - It is recommended to select products with an out-of-the-money margin of around 10% or less to mitigate risks associated with time decay and price movement [15][16]
10月22日【港股Podcast】恆指、中鋁、騰訊、中芯、中石油、吉利
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-23 08:08
Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) has shown a downward trend, closing around 25,700 points, which is a common level recently. The index had previously risen to 26,000 points, creating some investor expectations before the decline [2][3] - Investor sentiment is mixed, with some adopting a bearish outlook due to declining trading volumes, while others are speculating on short-term rebounds by purchasing bull certificates [2][3] Technical Signals - Current technical signals indicate a slight "sell" bias, with 8 sell signals and 6 buy signals, suggesting a bearish sentiment overall. The support level is approximately 25,300 points, with potential further declines to this level being noted [3][4] - For bullish investors, the short-term resistance level is around 26,400 points, which is crucial for monitoring potential upward movements [4] Individual Stock Analysis China Aluminum (02600) - China Aluminum's stock price has shown slight recovery, with expectations of upward movement following a period of consolidation. The resistance level is identified at 8.79 HKD, with a potential next target of 9.08 HKD if the first level is breached. However, the overall technical signals remain bearish with 8 sell signals and 5 buy signals [10] Tencent Holdings (00700) - Tencent's stock price has declined to 623.5 HKD, with a critical support level at 607 HKD. If this level is breached, the next support could be around 573 HKD. The technical signals are mixed, with 7 sell signals, 6 buy signals, and 8 neutral signals, indicating uncertainty in the stock's direction [17][18] SMIC (00981) - SMIC's stock price remains stable, with a support level around 68.7 HKD. Investors are considering adding to their positions if the price stabilizes around 74-75 HKD. The technical signals are neutral, suggesting no clear direction at this time [24] China Petroleum (00857) - China Petroleum's stock has been performing well, reaching a recent high of 7.92 HKD, with a closing price of 7.89 HKD. The primary resistance level is at 8 HKD, and the stock is currently showing a predominance of sell signals, with 9 sell signals and 5 buy signals [30] Geely Automobile (00175) - Geely's stock price has shown a slight decline, with a support level at 18.9 HKD. The technical signals are predominantly bearish, with 9 sell signals and 4 buy signals, indicating that investors may need to wait for a more favorable entry point [38]
10月15日【港股Podcast】恆指、騰訊、匯豐、平安、吉利、港交所
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-16 04:03
Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a slight recovery, closing at 25,910 points, just below the 26,000-point mark, leading to investor expectations for a potential breakthrough [1] - Bearish investors believe the index will not reach 26,000 points and are opting for bearish overnight positions, while some investors are taking long positions with a bullish outlook [1][3] Technical Signals - Current short-term signals lean towards "buy," with 9 buy signals and 6 sell signals, indicating a slightly positive sentiment [4] - Key support levels are identified at approximately 25,398 points and 24,600 points, with resistance at 26,500 points [4] Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) - Tencent's stock price closed at 627 HKD, showing a weak rebound, with concerns about insufficient upward momentum [7][9] - Short-term technical signals indicate a "buy" with 9 buy signals and 4 sell signals, but the stock faces resistance at 653 HKD and needs to break this level to target 668 HKD [9] HSBC Holdings (00005.HK) - HSBC's stock price rebounded slightly to 103 HKD, raising questions about whether this is a good entry point around the 100 HKD mark [10][12] - Technical signals show a "buy" with 8 buy signals and 7 sell signals, but caution is advised as support is at 99.6 HKD [12] Ping An Insurance (02318.HK) - Ping An's stock closed at 54.75 HKD, with investors questioning if 55 HKD is a significant resistance level [15][18] - The technical outlook is neutral, with 6 buy signals and 7 sell signals, indicating no clear trend [18] Geely Automobile (00175.HK) - Geely's stock price closed at 17.17 HKD, with a general bearish sentiment among investors who believe the rebound may end soon [21][24] - Technical signals show 8 sell signals and 6 buy signals, suggesting a bearish outlook with support at 18.4 HKD [24] Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388.HK) - The stock closed at 427.8 HKD, with investors speculating on whether it can stabilize above 430 HKD for further upward movement [27][30] - Current technical signals indicate a "buy" with 11 buy signals and 4 sell signals, suggesting potential for further gains if it breaks resistance at 442 HKD [30]