证券研究报告 基金双周报：ETF市场跟踪报告 2 ETF市场回顾： • 收益表现与资金流向：截至1月30日，近两周ETF产品涨跌不一。国内主要宽基ETF中，中证500涨幅最大，行业与主题产品中，周期主题ETF涨幅最大。近两 周，国内主要宽基ETF中，中证2000ETF资金净流入，沪深300ETF资金大幅净流出。2）近两周，周期、医药、消费ETF资金加速流入，军工、金融地产、科 技ETF资金流入速度放缓，大制造其他、新能源ETF资金转为净流入，红利ETF资金流出速度放缓。债券ETF方面，可转债ETF资金加速净流入，短融ETF资 金转为净流入，政金债、信用债、国债、地方债ETF资金净流出速度放缓。 • 产品结构分布：截至1月30日，近两周市场新成立ETF共19只，发行份额合计109.63亿份，均为股票ETF。相较25年末，商品ETF、行业+红利ETF、QDII-ETF 规模分别上升38.50%、23.19%、6.01%，债券ETF、宽基ETF规模分别下降12.49%、34.99%。 证券分析师 | 陈 | 瑶 | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524120003 | | --- | --- | --- | | 郭子 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the structural opportunities in the Chinese equity market for 2026, driven by the global competitiveness of high-quality Chinese enterprises and the ongoing long-term valuation reassessment of Chinese assets [1] - Morgan Asset Management's China Equity Investment Team suggests that the market will present structural opportunities in 2026, as international investors reassess the allocation value of Chinese assets [1] - The investment strategy should focus on stable growth in industrial demand and sustainable cash flow, moving beyond traditional frameworks of "new and old industries" [1] Group 2 - The balanced growth team leader at Morgan Asset Management believes that the technology growth style will continue to show relative advantages in 2026, driven by the ongoing transformation of the economy and substantial capital expenditure from both domestic and international tech leaders [2] - The focus is on identifying quality companies with sustainable growth potential and reasonable valuations using a "value growth" strategy, particularly in the context of expected economic recovery and corporate profit rebound [2] - The balanced and value team leader highlights two key opportunities: cyclical industries benefiting from supply constraints and cash flow optimization, and high-end manufacturing companies expanding into overseas markets [2] Group 3 - The growth team manager at Morgan Asset Management is optimistic about the lithium battery and energy storage industry, noting that energy storage is becoming a core demand driver, with significant improvements in supply-demand dynamics [3] - There is a strong focus on AI-related hardware and software investment opportunities, with an emphasis on tracking the progress of application implementation and business closure [3] - The trend of ETF development is also highlighted, with a focus on "barbell" allocation strategies, and the establishment of technology-themed and dividend-themed ETFs in the A-share and Hong Kong Stock Connect markets [3]

Core Viewpoint - The continuous inflow of funds has led to record high shares for several dividend-themed ETFs, including the Hong Kong Central Enterprise Dividend ETF (513910), with the total scale of dividend-themed ETFs (A-shares and Hong Kong) reaching 188 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 70 billion yuan compared to the end of last year [1] Group 1 - The low interest rate environment has made traditional deposits and bonds less attractive, prompting funds to flow into other income-generating assets [1] - In contrast, during the interest rate hike cycle, dividend assets may face challenges, as evidenced by U.S. dividend stocks underperforming the broader market from 2022 to 2024 [1] - Increased market volatility has led investors to seek "safe havens," with dividend assets showing strength while technology sectors like the Sci-Tech Innovation Index and Sci-Tech 50 have experienced declines since October [1] Group 2 - The recent shift in risk appetite among investors has highlighted new income options, contributing to the record high shares of various ETFs, including the Hong Kong Central Enterprise Dividend ETF (513910) [1] - As of December 1, the trading volume of the Hong Kong Central Enterprise Dividend ETF exceeded 400 million yuan, with a one-year dividend yield of approximately 5.7%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield of around 3.8% [1]

Group 1 - The investment interest in the dividend sector is rising, with a significant increase in the issuance of dividend-themed funds and a notable inflow into existing ETFs [1][2] - In November, nine dividend-themed funds were established, with a total issuance scale of 6.615 billion, marking a monthly record for the year [1] - Major fund companies have completed a matrix layout for dividend funds, including index funds and actively managed equity funds, covering A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and various dividend asset strategies [1] Group 2 - Existing dividend-themed ETFs have seen substantial net subscriptions, totaling 12.198 billion in November [2] - Specific ETFs such as E Fund's High Dividend Low Volatility ETF and Morgan Stanley's Low Volatility Dividend ETF have recorded significant net inflows, contributing to the overall growth of the sector [2] - The total scale of dividend-themed ETFs reached 188 billion, an increase of nearly 70 billion compared to the end of last year [2] Group 3 - Insurance capital has become more active in acquiring listed companies, particularly in high-dividend Hong Kong stocks, indicating a positive long-term outlook for the dividend sector [3] - Dividend assets are seen as having bond-like characteristics, making them attractive in the current low-interest-rate environment [3] - Regulatory efforts are being made to encourage companies to increase dividends, which may enhance shareholder returns and support the dividend sector [3]

Group 1: Fund News Overview - 16 hard technology-themed funds were approved on November 21, including 7 AI ETFs, 3 chip ETFs, 4 chip design ETFs, and 2 actively managed technology equity funds from various fund managers such as E Fund, GF Fund, and Morgan Asset Management [1] - Several dividend ETFs have reached record sizes, with one product exceeding 26.6 billion yuan. As of November 21, the net inflow for dividend-themed ETFs in November reached 6.318 billion yuan, totaling 35.623 billion yuan year-to-date, representing a 49.31% increase since the beginning of the year [2] - More than half of Hong Kong stock funds have a return rate exceeding 30%. As of November 18, out of 337 funds with "Hong Kong" in their names, 336 had positive returns this year, with 174 funds achieving returns over 30%, accounting for approximately 52% [3] Group 2: Fund Manager Updates - Fund subscriptions for multiple funds managed by Lan Xiaokang will be limited starting November 24, with a maximum subscription amount of 500,000 yuan per day per account. The two funds, managed by Lan Xiaokang, have scales of 9.668 billion yuan and 7.170 billion yuan respectively [4] Group 3: ETF Market Commentary - The market showed a slight recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.37%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.31%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.73 trillion yuan, a decrease of 237.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Sectors such as aerospace, internet services, and communication equipment saw significant gains, while energy metals and insurance sectors experienced declines [5] - The commercial aerospace sector is highlighted as a key opportunity, with satellite applications and 6G technology showing strong integration potential. The next important phase for satellite networks will be the deployment of powerful on-orbit computing capabilities, which can be explored through aerospace ETFs and general aviation ETFs [9]

Core Insights - Continuous inflow of funds into dividend-themed ETFs, with several ETFs reaching historical highs in share volume [1] - High dividend companies exhibit multiple quality characteristics, including stable profitability, solid fundamentals, ample cash flow, and lower volatility [1] - The relative advantage of high dividends is expected to become more pronounced as long-term interest rates continue to trend downward, leading to increased allocation of institutional funds into the dividend sector [1] Fund Inflows - As of November 17, the net subscription amount for dividend-themed ETFs reached 8.228 billion [1] - Notable ETFs such as Morgan Stanley Hong Kong Dividend Index ETF, Huatai-PB Low Volatility Dividend ETF, and China Asset Management Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend ETF each had net subscriptions exceeding 900 million [1] - The share volumes of these ETFs have reached new highs since their inception due to the sustained inflow of funds [1] Characteristics of High Dividend Companies - High dividend companies are characterized by stable earnings, strong fundamentals, and robust cash flow [1] - These companies typically have mature business models, stable industry structures, and strong competitive advantages [1] - There is a focus on shareholder returns, which enhances their attractiveness to investors [1]

ETF Market Overview - As of November 7, the performance of ETF products varied, with the CSI 2000 showing the highest increase among major broad-based ETFs, while the new energy theme ETF had the largest increase among industry and thematic products [2][9] - In the past two weeks, major broad-based ETFs such as CSI A500, CSI 2000, and Sci-Tech 50 ETF saw net inflows, while the ChiNext ETF experienced the largest net outflow [2][9] - The recent trend indicates a shift from net inflows to net outflows in cyclical and military industry ETFs, while pharmaceutical ETFs saw accelerated inflows [2][16] ETF Fund Flow Analysis - The cumulative fund flow for broad-based ETFs has shown a trend of outflows turning into inflows and then back to outflows since the beginning of 2025, with A-series ETFs consistently experiencing outflows [10] - Recent net outflows for broad-based ETFs have slowed down, with CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 transitioning from net outflows to net inflows [10][16] - As of November 7, the total number of newly established ETFs in the past two weeks was 16, with a total issuance of 6.53 billion units, of which 13 were stock ETFs and 3 were QDII ETFs [24] Thematic ETF Tracking - In the technology theme ETFs, products tracking the Hang Seng Technology index saw the highest net inflows, while those tracking consumer electronics experienced net outflows [30] - For dividend theme ETFs, products tracking the S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend Index had the highest net inflows, while those tracking the dividend index saw net outflows [32] Popular Thematic ETFs - AI-themed ETFs, which have a high proportion of AI stocks, experienced an average return of -2.99% with a net inflow of 1.56 billion [2] - New energy-themed ETFs had an average return of 7.67% but saw a net outflow of 5.72 billion [2] - The total holdings of ETFs by Central Huijin, Guoxin, and Chengtong reached 391.34 billion units, with a net outflow of 2.11 billion in the past two weeks [2]

ETF Market Overview - As of October 24, the performance of ETF products varied, with the Shanghai 50 index showing the highest increase among major broad-based ETFs, while the dividend-themed ETFs had the largest gains among industry and thematic products [2][9] - In the past two weeks, major broad-based ETFs such as the CSI A50, CSI 2000, and Shanghai 50 saw net inflows, while the CSI A500 ETF experienced the largest net outflow [2][9] - The recent trend indicates a shift in fund flows, with the New Energy ETF moving from net inflow to net outflow, while the Pharmaceutical ETF transitioned from net outflow to net inflow [16] ETF Fund Flow Analysis - The cumulative fund flow for major broad-based ETFs has shown a trend of outflows turning into inflows and then back to outflows since the beginning of 2025, with significant inflows into the CSI 300 ETF in April, followed by continued outflows in subsequent months [10][12] - Recent data indicates that, apart from the Shanghai 50 ETF, which shifted from net outflow to net inflow, other major broad-based ETFs have transitioned from net inflows to net outflows in the past two weeks [10][12] Thematic ETF Tracking - For technology-themed ETFs, those tracking the Hang Seng Technology index saw significant net inflows, while products tracking the CS Artificial Intelligence index experienced net outflows [32] - Dividend-themed ETFs tracking the low-volatility dividend index had the highest net inflows, whereas those tracking the dividend index saw net outflows [35] New ETF Products and Market Growth - In the past two weeks, a total of 8 new ETFs were launched, with a combined issuance of 2.997 billion shares, all of which were stock ETFs [26] - Compared to the end of 2024, the scale of various ETFs has increased significantly, with bond ETFs, commodity ETFs, industry + dividend ETFs, QDII ETFs, and broad-based ETFs growing by 293.33%, 197.82%, 112.34%, 52.18%, and 13.97% respectively [26] Fund Management Scale Distribution - As of October 24, Huaxia Fund has the largest ETF scale at 912.812 billion, with E Fund's ETF management scale expanding by over 250 billion compared to the previous year [27][28]

Market Overview - On October 21, the A-share market experienced a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.36% and surpassing 3900 points, while the ChiNext Index increased by over 3% [4] - More than 90% of ETFs in the market saw gains, with 1246 ETFs in the green, driven by the release of third-quarter earnings forecasts and ongoing news related to AI hardware and software [4] Leading ETFs - The 5G communication and artificial intelligence themed ETFs led the market, with several ETFs rising over 5% [4] - Notable performers included: - Communication ETF (515880.SH) up 6.76% - 5GETF (159994.SZ) up 6.40% - 5G Communication ETF (515050.SH) up 6.20% - Various ChiNext AI ETFs also saw increases ranging from 5.13% to 5.59% [5] Sector Performance - The communication, electronics, and real estate sectors showed significant gains, contributing to the overall market rebound [4] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159262) also performed well, rising by 2.47% with a trading volume exceeding 400 million yuan, and its total size surpassing 5.5 billion yuan since its launch [5][6] Fund Manager Insights - Fund managers from GF Fund highlighted that short-term geopolitical factors may impact technology, but long-term influences are tied to China's economic recovery expectations, potential Fed rate cuts, and the ongoing development of the technology sector [6] - The insurance sector is showing strong performance, with major companies reporting net profit increases exceeding 40%, driven by favorable equity investments [9] Trading Activity - The short-term bond ETF (511360) recorded the highest trading volume at 38.419 billion yuan, leading the market in ETF trading activity [10][11] - The low-fee ChiNext ETF (159952) also saw significant trading, with a volume of over 5 billion yuan and a total size of 14.4 billion yuan [10] Capital Flows - On October 20, significant net inflows were observed in broad-based ETFs, including the SSE 50 ETF (510050) and CSI 300 ETF (510300) [12] - Despite some declines in gold-related ETFs, there was still active capital inflow into several gold ETFs [12]

Core Viewpoint - In the context of increasing market volatility, dividend sectors such as banking and coal are showing robust performance, with significant inflows into dividend-themed ETFs indicating a preference for high-dividend blue-chip stocks [1][2][3] Summary by Category Dividend Asset Performance - On October 20, the CSI Dividend Index rose by 0.74%, with a trading volume of 61.843 billion yuan, indicating active trading [1] - Several coal and energy stocks led the gains, with Pingmei Shenma Coal rising over 9% and Lu'an Environmental Energy increasing over 7% [1] - The coal sector is expected to see a potential price increase due to a high probability of a "cold winter," similar to previous periods of unexpected coal price rises [1] Fund Flows and Market Trends - Recent market trends show a significant shift of funds towards high-dividend sectors, with a net inflow of 4.258 billion yuan into dividend-themed ETFs last week [2] - The Huatai-PB CSI Dividend Low Volatility ETF attracted the most attention, with a net inflow of 2.773 billion yuan, bringing its total size to over 20 billion yuan [2] - Bank ETFs also saw substantial inflows, with multiple bank ETFs rising over 5% and a total net inflow exceeding 8 billion yuan [2] Investment Strategies and Recommendations - The investment strategy for the fourth quarter emphasizes high-dividend blue-chip stocks and high-growth sectors like renewable energy and AI, catering to both conservative and risk-tolerant investors [3] - The banking sector is expected to benefit from increased mid-term dividends and stable performance in the third quarter, with a focus on absolute returns in the upcoming quarters [2][3] - The entry of asset management companies into the banking sector is anticipated to enhance long-term funding, further supporting the appeal of dividend stocks [3]