Core Viewpoint - The new energy vehicle market is experiencing varied delivery performances among different manufacturers in November, with some companies showing growth while others face declines. The overall market sentiment is cautious due to tightening policies and consumer hesitation. Group 1: Delivery Performance - Leap Motor led the delivery numbers with 70,327 units in November, marking a 75.08% year-on-year increase and a slight 0.05% month-on-month growth, achieving its annual sales target of 500,000 units 45 days ahead of schedule [2][3] - Xiaopeng Motors delivered 36,728 units, reflecting an 18.88% year-on-year increase but a 12.58% month-on-month decline, marking its first monthly drop in six months [3][4] - NIO delivered 36,275 units, a 76.31% year-on-year increase, with its sub-brands showing significant growth, particularly the LeDao brand with a 132.07% increase [2][3] - Li Auto's deliveries were at 33,181 units, showing a 31.92% year-on-year decline, continuing a six-month trend of year-on-year decreases [4][5] Group 2: Future Projections and Strategies - Leap Motor aims to reach a sales target of 1 million units by 2026, supported by the launch of new models like the A10 and Lafa5, which cater to different market segments [3][4] - Xiaopeng Motors is expanding its overseas market presence, with a 95% year-on-year increase in overseas deliveries, and is optimistic about new models contributing to future growth [3][4] - NIO has set a quarterly delivery guidance of 120,000 to 125,000 units, needing to deliver over 43,000 units in December to meet this target [4] - Li Auto is focusing on enhancing its long-term competitiveness through organizational, product, and technological improvements, with a cautious delivery guidance of 100,000 to 110,000 units for the fourth quarter [5]

Market Overview - The large three-row SUV market has become increasingly crowded since late July, with new entrants like Li Auto's i8, AITO's M8, and Tesla's extended Model Y [2] - NIO launched its second model under the sub-brand Ladao, the L90, and the new ES8 within 22 days, targeting both mass and premium markets [2] - As of August 22, pre-orders for the new ES8 have surpassed those for the Ladao L90 [2] Sales and Stock Performance - NIO's physical store traffic has surged, leading to increased sales and test drives, with sufficient inventory available [4] - Following the Ladao L90's tech release on July 10, NIO's stock price rose by 93.29%, reaching HKD 53.35 and restoring a market cap of over 100 billion [4] Industry Trends - The entry of players like NIO, Li Auto, AITO, and Tesla has initiated a golden era for the pure electric large three-row SUV market [6] - Historically, the market was dominated by fuel and range-extended vehicles, but the rise of pure electric models is now evident [7] Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - Consumer education regarding electric vehicles has improved, alleviating range anxiety and increasing acceptance of pure electric models [13] - The development of charging infrastructure has also contributed to consumer confidence, with over 13.7 million charging stations in China as of March, a 47.6% increase year-on-year [15] Technological Advancements - Battery costs have significantly decreased, with lithium carbonate prices dropping from approximately CNY 600,000 per ton to around CNY 60,000 [14] - Innovations in battery technology and vehicle lightweighting are enabling the production of more efficient large three-row SUVs [16][17] NIO's Strategic Positioning - NIO's Ladao L90 and new ES8 models are designed to balance energy consumption, space, and aesthetics, addressing common consumer pain points [18][21] - The company has invested over CNY 60 billion in R&D over the past decade, with a focus on developing core technologies [23] - NIO's dual model strategy with L90 and ES8 is expected to strengthen its market position and drive profitability in Q4 [25]

单车收入同比下滑 作者 丨雨山 三个多月前，李想在一场直播中告诉外界：最能让他兴奋的事情不再是提升汽车销量，而是在有生 之年制造出硅基家人。 但在实现这个人工智能产品的"终极形态"之前，李想不可能退居二线。他的首要任务，还是守住汽 车业务的江山。 3月14日，理想交出了一份喜忧参半的财报：2024年第四季度营收443亿元，季度交付量158,696辆， 皆创下历史新高；全年营收1445亿元，同比增长16.6%，连续两年年营收突破千亿元，并成为首个达 成全年交付量突破50万辆的中国豪华汽车品牌。 但"增收不增利"给这份成绩单涂抹了些许暗淡：理想第四季度净利润同比减少38.6%至35亿元，全年 净利润同比下滑31.9%至80亿元。在市场最关注的汽车毛利率指标上，本季度汽车业务毛利率为 19.7%，环比下滑了1.2个百分点，逊于市场预期。 销量和营收双双增长，净利润和毛利率双双下滑。车，多卖了12.4万辆；钱，少赚了约30亿元。 | | 2023年Q3 | 2023年Q4 | 2024年Q1 | 2024年Q2 | 2024年Q3 | 2024年Q4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6][7]. Core Views - In February 2025, the company achieved sales of 26,263 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 29.7% but a month-on-month decline of 12.2%. The cumulative sales for January and February reached 56,000 units, up 9.3% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company's product advantages and brand design are well recognized, and the "dual-energy strategy" is expected to further enhance its competitive edge. The upcoming new models are anticipated to expand the sales potential significantly [6][7]. - The company has a clear product planning strategy with a matrix covering over 200,000 market segments, and the ongoing expansion of direct sales channels is expected to support future sales growth [6][7]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - February 2025 sales reached 26,263 units, a year-on-year increase of 29.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 12.2%. Cumulative sales for the first two months of 2025 were 56,000 units, reflecting a 9.3% year-on-year growth [2][4]. Product and Strategy - The company has announced its first pure electric SUV, the i8, which is positioned as a six-seat electric vehicle. The design of the i8 is a blend between the L series and MEGA models, marking the beginning of a new product cycle [6][7]. - The "dual-energy strategy" has led to the establishment of over 10,000 charging stations nationwide, enhancing user experience through improved smart technology. The company continues to lead in intelligent driving technology, with ongoing updates to its systems [6][7]. Financial Projections - The projected net profit for the company from 2024 to 2026 is expected to be 76.4 billion, 142.1 billion, and 195.6 billion respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 30.1X, 16.2X, and 11.8X. Non-GAAP net profits are projected to be 106.4 billion, 147.1 billion, and 195.6 billion, with PE ratios of 21.6X, 15.6X, and 11.8X respectively [6].