Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of diversified asset allocation in investment strategies, inspired by Ray Dalio's "All Weather Strategy," which suggests that having 10-15 uncorrelated return streams can significantly reduce non-systematic risk while capturing overall market returns [5][6]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The investment strategy involves a total investment of approximately 3 million, with a focus on multi-asset diversification to achieve a cumulative return exceeding 3 million [3]. - The allocation includes 33% in overseas investments, with a mix of active and passive management strategies, such as the Nasdaq 100 Index fund and various actively managed global technology funds [7][11]. - Domestic investments account for 46%, employing various strategies including balanced, growth, small-cap, and micro-cap funds to capture different market opportunities [12][13]. - A 16% allocation is made to dividend indices, focusing on companies with consistent dividend payouts, providing a sense of security in the investment portfolio [14]. - The commodity allocation is 20%, primarily in gold, oil, and soybean meal ETFs, serving as a hedge against market volatility and inflation [15][16]. Risk Management and Investment Philosophy - The investment approach prioritizes stability and risk management, aiming to preserve profits and control drawdowns in a volatile market environment [16]. - The philosophy encourages investors to find a rhythm that suits their risk tolerance, avoiding the temptation to chase quick profits or panic during market downturns [16].

Core Insights - High-yield, low-drawdown broad-based index funds are favored by investors for their stability and consistent returns [6] Group 1: Index Fund Characteristics - The CSI 300 Index serves as a "barometer" for the A-share market, comprising 300 representative securities that reflect the overall trend of the market [1] - The CCTV Finance 50 Index is uniquely compiled to reflect the performance of well-governed, financially sound companies with growth potential and social responsibility, offering higher returns than the CSI 300 [2] - The Dividend Low Volatility Index focuses on high-dividend stocks from mature industries, providing stability and cash flow, although it has historically experienced significant drawdowns [3] - The Nasdaq 100 Index represents leading global tech companies, achieving a 110% return over five years and over 200% in seven years, but lacks industry diversification [4] - The S&P 500 Index includes 500 large U.S. companies, offering lower volatility and higher stability compared to the Nasdaq 100, with returns exceeding 90% over five years and 230% over ten years [5] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to select suitable funds based on their investment goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon, utilizing a mix of the highlighted index funds to create a tailored investment portfolio [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a practical approach to personal finance, focusing on earning, saving, investing, and avoiding pitfalls to achieve financial freedom. Group 1: Earning Money - Focus on high-paying industries such as the internet, live streaming, and artificial intelligence, even if it requires long hours [1] - Consider job changes for better salary opportunities, as switching jobs can lead to significant salary increases [2] - Engage in side hustles like food delivery or content creation to supplement income [2] Group 2: Saving Money - Immediately transfer 20% of salary to a savings account upon receipt to enforce discipline [3] - Adopt a frugal lifestyle by minimizing unnecessary expenses, such as using old phones and avoiding luxury items [4] - Emphasize the importance of saving over spending, countering the notion that "money is earned, not saved" [4] Group 3: Investing Money - Beginners should start with low-risk investment tools like money market funds and government bonds to protect principal [5] - Regularly invest in index funds like the CSI 300 or NASDAQ 100 to benefit from economic growth over time [5] - Avoid speculative trading behaviors such as day trading or cryptocurrency speculation, which are seen as risky [5] Group 4: Avoiding Financial Pitfalls - Avoid high-interest debt, particularly from credit cards, which can lead to significant financial losses [6] - Prioritize purchasing insurance, such as critical illness coverage, to safeguard against unexpected medical expenses [7] - Test entrepreneurial ideas by working in the industry before fully committing to a business venture [8] Group 5: Long-term Financial Strategy - The article suggests a work-hard mentality in the early years (ages 25-35) to build a solid financial foundation for later years [10] - Avoid comparing financial situations with others, as appearances can be misleading [11] - Set clear financial goals, such as saving a specific amount over time, to achieve financial independence [11]

Group 1 - The concept of a Permanent Investment Portfolio was introduced by Harry Browne in the 1980s, aiming for stable returns through diversification across different economic conditions [2] - The portfolio consists of four asset classes: 25% stocks, 25% long-term bonds, 25% cash (short-term treasury bills), and 25% gold [2] - The design of this portfolio is intended to cover various economic scenarios, including prosperity, inflation, recession, and deflation [4][5] Group 2 - During periods of prosperity, stocks perform best due to increased corporate earnings driving up stock prices [5] - In inflationary periods, gold appreciates due to its value preservation properties as prices rise and currency devalues [5] - In recessionary periods, long-term bond prices increase as interest rates typically decline [5] - In deflationary periods, cash provides safety and flexibility amidst economic contraction and market volatility [5] Group 3 - Steps to implement a Permanent Investment Portfolio include allocating 25% of investment capital to each asset class and selecting appropriate initial investment tools [6][7] - Regular rebalancing of the portfolio is necessary to maintain the 25% allocation for each asset class, which involves selling outperforming assets and buying underperforming ones [8] Group 4 - Historical performance since 1964 shows an annualized return of approximately 8.5% for the Permanent Investment Portfolio, with lower volatility compared to a 60/40 portfolio [9] - Backtesting results for a Nasdaq 100 version of the portfolio indicate a cumulative return of about 135% over ten years, with an annualized return of 8.89% and a maximum drawdown of 8.57% [9][10] - The backtest for a CSI 300 version shows a cumulative return of 78% over ten years, with an annualized return of 5.98% and a maximum drawdown of 9.95% [12] Group 5 - The Permanent Investment Portfolio is designed to be a "permanent" strategy, requiring infrequent adjustments, making it suitable for investors who prefer low trading frequency [14] - It is considered a safe and stable strategy, particularly for low-risk investors focused on wealth preservation [14] - Potential limitations include the performance of long-term bonds in rising interest rate environments and the overall performance lag during prolonged economic booms [14][15]

作者：戴皇冠的小恐龙 来源：雪球 这个回顾分析文章 ， 本应该是在清明节期间发布的 ， 因为本大类资产配置组合创建于2024年4月3号 ， 到清明节正好1年 ， 但是在节日期间看到特朗普发起的关税贸易战 ， 就决定延期发布 ， 看看本策略在全 球激烈的贸易冲突中的表现如何 ， 用真金实银验证一下它的成色 ； 过去2周了 ， 情况大家也看到了 ， 现 在可以更好地看看该策略在突发黑天鹅事件的时候的表现了 ， 这也是该策略的目标之一 ： 对抗黑天鹅事件 ； 下文中 ， 整个时间区间为2024年4月3号至2025年4月18号 ， 不再另外说明 。 长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 01 整个组合前后一共运行了13个月 ， 只有2个月的收益为负 ， 分别是24年的7月和25年的2月 ， 分别 是-0.3%和-0.09% ， 其他均为正收益 ， 胜率非常高 ， 持有体验非常好 。 截止到4月18号 ， 当天组合各资产权重如下 ： 1 ， A股 ： 9.00% ， 以红利低波资产为主 收益表现 。 先看收益 （ 组合收益计算为基金净值法 ） ： | | 创 ...