Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a cautious investment strategy, particularly in the high-tech sector, and highlights the risks associated with investing outside one's expertise [4][5][6]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The author holds a portion of technology stocks, achieving significant gains, such as a 130% profit from Jinfatech and 70% from GoerTek, but these holdings only represent 30% of the total portfolio [4]. - The investment philosophy is centered around the idea of having a "retreat" or exit strategy, allowing for more confident decision-making in volatile markets [5]. - The author recounts an experience where a colleague's aggressive trading strategy led to significant losses, illustrating the dangers of not having a risk management plan [6]. Group 2: Technology Sector Insights - The article discusses the disconnect between American AI companies and the Chinese AI chain, suggesting that this could lead to a fragile business model for U.S. AI firms, which rely heavily on inter-company investments [6][7]. - Despite the impressive performance of companies like Nvidia, there is skepticism among investors regarding the sustainability of profits in the AI sector, as many companies are not yet profitable and continue to incur high expenses [7]. - The current enthusiasm for high-tech stocks, particularly in AI, should be approached with caution, adhering to the principle of "better to miss out than to make a mistake" [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of diversified asset allocation in investment strategies, inspired by Ray Dalio's "All Weather Strategy," which suggests that having 10-15 uncorrelated return streams can significantly reduce non-systematic risk while capturing overall market returns [5][6]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The investment strategy involves a total investment of approximately 3 million, with a focus on multi-asset diversification to achieve a cumulative return exceeding 3 million [3]. - The allocation includes 33% in overseas investments, with a mix of active and passive management strategies, such as the Nasdaq 100 Index fund and various actively managed global technology funds [7][11]. - Domestic investments account for 46%, employing various strategies including balanced, growth, small-cap, and micro-cap funds to capture different market opportunities [12][13]. - A 16% allocation is made to dividend indices, focusing on companies with consistent dividend payouts, providing a sense of security in the investment portfolio [14]. - The commodity allocation is 20%, primarily in gold, oil, and soybean meal ETFs, serving as a hedge against market volatility and inflation [15][16]. Risk Management and Investment Philosophy - The investment approach prioritizes stability and risk management, aiming to preserve profits and control drawdowns in a volatile market environment [16]. - The philosophy encourages investors to find a rhythm that suits their risk tolerance, avoiding the temptation to chase quick profits or panic during market downturns [16].

Core Insights - High-yield, low-drawdown broad-based index funds are favored by investors for their stability and consistent returns [6] Group 1: Index Fund Characteristics - The CSI 300 Index serves as a "barometer" for the A-share market, comprising 300 representative securities that reflect the overall trend of the market [1] - The CCTV Finance 50 Index is uniquely compiled to reflect the performance of well-governed, financially sound companies with growth potential and social responsibility, offering higher returns than the CSI 300 [2] - The Dividend Low Volatility Index focuses on high-dividend stocks from mature industries, providing stability and cash flow, although it has historically experienced significant drawdowns [3] - The Nasdaq 100 Index represents leading global tech companies, achieving a 110% return over five years and over 200% in seven years, but lacks industry diversification [4] - The S&P 500 Index includes 500 large U.S. companies, offering lower volatility and higher stability compared to the Nasdaq 100, with returns exceeding 90% over five years and 230% over ten years [5] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to select suitable funds based on their investment goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon, utilizing a mix of the highlighted index funds to create a tailored investment portfolio [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a practical approach to personal finance, focusing on earning, saving, investing, and avoiding pitfalls to achieve financial freedom. Group 1: Earning Money - Focus on high-paying industries such as the internet, live streaming, and artificial intelligence, even if it requires long hours [1] - Consider job changes for better salary opportunities, as switching jobs can lead to significant salary increases [2] - Engage in side hustles like food delivery or content creation to supplement income [2] Group 2: Saving Money - Immediately transfer 20% of salary to a savings account upon receipt to enforce discipline [3] - Adopt a frugal lifestyle by minimizing unnecessary expenses, such as using old phones and avoiding luxury items [4] - Emphasize the importance of saving over spending, countering the notion that "money is earned, not saved" [4] Group 3: Investing Money - Beginners should start with low-risk investment tools like money market funds and government bonds to protect principal [5] - Regularly invest in index funds like the CSI 300 or NASDAQ 100 to benefit from economic growth over time [5] - Avoid speculative trading behaviors such as day trading or cryptocurrency speculation, which are seen as risky [5] Group 4: Avoiding Financial Pitfalls - Avoid high-interest debt, particularly from credit cards, which can lead to significant financial losses [6] - Prioritize purchasing insurance, such as critical illness coverage, to safeguard against unexpected medical expenses [7] - Test entrepreneurial ideas by working in the industry before fully committing to a business venture [8] Group 5: Long-term Financial Strategy - The article suggests a work-hard mentality in the early years (ages 25-35) to build a solid financial foundation for later years [10] - Avoid comparing financial situations with others, as appearances can be misleading [11] - Set clear financial goals, such as saving a specific amount over time, to achieve financial independence [11]

Group 1 - The concept of a Permanent Investment Portfolio was introduced by Harry Browne in the 1980s, aiming for stable returns through diversification across different economic conditions [2] - The portfolio consists of four asset classes: 25% stocks, 25% long-term bonds, 25% cash (short-term treasury bills), and 25% gold [2] - The design of this portfolio is intended to cover various economic scenarios, including prosperity, inflation, recession, and deflation [4][5] Group 2 - During periods of prosperity, stocks perform best due to increased corporate earnings driving up stock prices [5] - In inflationary periods, gold appreciates due to its value preservation properties as prices rise and currency devalues [5] - In recessionary periods, long-term bond prices increase as interest rates typically decline [5] - In deflationary periods, cash provides safety and flexibility amidst economic contraction and market volatility [5] Group 3 - Steps to implement a Permanent Investment Portfolio include allocating 25% of investment capital to each asset class and selecting appropriate initial investment tools [6][7] - Regular rebalancing of the portfolio is necessary to maintain the 25% allocation for each asset class, which involves selling outperforming assets and buying underperforming ones [8] Group 4 - Historical performance since 1964 shows an annualized return of approximately 8.5% for the Permanent Investment Portfolio, with lower volatility compared to a 60/40 portfolio [9] - Backtesting results for a Nasdaq 100 version of the portfolio indicate a cumulative return of about 135% over ten years, with an annualized return of 8.89% and a maximum drawdown of 8.57% [9][10] - The backtest for a CSI 300 version shows a cumulative return of 78% over ten years, with an annualized return of 5.98% and a maximum drawdown of 9.95% [12] Group 5 - The Permanent Investment Portfolio is designed to be a "permanent" strategy, requiring infrequent adjustments, making it suitable for investors who prefer low trading frequency [14] - It is considered a safe and stable strategy, particularly for low-risk investors focused on wealth preservation [14] - Potential limitations include the performance of long-term bonds in rising interest rate environments and the overall performance lag during prolonged economic booms [14][15]

作者：戴皇冠的小恐龙 来源：雪球 这个回顾分析文章 ， 本应该是在清明节期间发布的 ， 因为本大类资产配置组合创建于2024年4月3号 ， 到清明节正好1年 ， 但是在节日期间看到特朗普发起的关税贸易战 ， 就决定延期发布 ， 看看本策略在全 球激烈的贸易冲突中的表现如何 ， 用真金实银验证一下它的成色 ； 过去2周了 ， 情况大家也看到了 ， 现 在可以更好地看看该策略在突发黑天鹅事件的时候的表现了 ， 这也是该策略的目标之一 ： 对抗黑天鹅事件 ； 下文中 ， 整个时间区间为2024年4月3号至2025年4月18号 ， 不再另外说明 。 长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 01 整个组合前后一共运行了13个月 ， 只有2个月的收益为负 ， 分别是24年的7月和25年的2月 ， 分别 是-0.3%和-0.09% ， 其他均为正收益 ， 胜率非常高 ， 持有体验非常好 。 截止到4月18号 ， 当天组合各资产权重如下 ： 1 ， A股 ： 9.00% ， 以红利低波资产为主 收益表现 。 先看收益 （ 组合收益计算为基金净值法 ） ： | | 创 ...