北交所策略专题报告 2025 年 08 月 24 日 北证 50 与专精特新指数齐创历史新高，北证 50 新中枢 1450-1650 点或将确立 ——北交所策略专题报告 北交所研究团队 诸海滨（分析师） zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 专题：北证"双指数"均创历史新高，北证 50 的"新中枢"或将确立 本周北证"双指数"均创历史新高，本轮上涨中北证 50 是继 2025 年 5 月 21 日 盘中最高点触及 1500.31 点后，指数首次有效突破 1500 点位置，其中 2025 年 8 月 20 号收盘价到达历史最高点 1615.16 点，2025 年 8 月 22 号收盘价稳定在 1600.27 点；北证专精特新指数在 2025 年 8 月 20 号和 2025 年 8 月 22 号收盘价 分别为 2832.92 点和 2785.76 点。我们认为本周北证 50 在突破 1500 这一关键平 台后，或将进入寻找下一个新中枢的过程，预计北证 50 新中枢有望处于 1450-1650 点左右，其背后的驱动力来自于：1）北交所企业"专精特新"含量高， 聚集的科技中小 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the launch of the "Beijing Stock Exchange Specialized and Innovative Index," marking the beginning of a "dual-index era" for the exchange, with a focus on high innovation and growth potential in specialized and innovative enterprises [3][13] - The new index includes a higher proportion of companies from high-end manufacturing and TMT sectors compared to the existing Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index, with respective increases of 14 percentage points and 4 percentage points [3][15] - As of August 1, 2025, the average market capitalization of the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 and the Specialized and Innovative Index is 6.195 billion and 4.711 billion respectively, with the latter having a higher price-to-earnings ratio of 67.81X compared to 47.92X for the former [3][20] Group 2 - The report indicates that the Specialized and Innovative Index has shown a revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.98% and a net profit CAGR of 3.11% from 2021 to 2024, outperforming the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index, which has a revenue CAGR of 6.19% and a negative net profit CAGR of -8.83% [26][64] - The profitability metrics for the Specialized and Innovative Index are strong, with a gross margin of 26.14%, a net profit margin of 9.90%, and a return on equity (ROE) of 10.12% for 2024, all exceeding the corresponding figures for the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index [29][67] - The report notes that the R&D expense ratio for the Specialized and Innovative Index ranges from 5.39% to 5.80% from 2021 to Q1 2025, averaging 5.69%, which is significantly higher than the 4.18% average for the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index [33][3] Group 3 - The report states that the Specialized and Innovative Index has achieved a return of 44.11% year-to-date as of August 1, 2025, outperforming other specialized and innovative indices [46][47] - The index primarily focuses on industries such as industrial, information technology, and materials, with respective company representation of 39.97% and 15.13%, which is higher than other specialized indices [49][50] - The liquidity of the Specialized and Innovative Index is noted to be higher than that of other indices, with a turnover rate of 5.92% as of August 1, 2025 [52][56] Group 4 - The report discusses the rapid growth of the ETF market in China, with personal holdings of stock ETFs increasing from 7.762 billion shares in 2015 to 742.781 billion shares by 2024, raising the share of personal holdings from 13.34% to 37.67% [5][83] - As of August 1, 2025, the number of products tracking the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index has increased to 59, with a total fund size reaching 11.322 billion [5][86] - The report anticipates that the arrival of index-based investment will enhance liquidity and restructure the ecosystem of the Beijing Stock Exchange, potentially leading to a revaluation of high-growth enterprises [5][90]

Group 1 - The report highlights the launch of the "Beijing Stock Exchange Specialized and Innovative Index," marking the beginning of a "dual-index era" for the exchange, with a focus on high innovation and growth potential in specialized and innovative enterprises [3][12][38] - The Specialized and Innovative Index has a higher proportion of companies in high-end manufacturing and TMT sectors compared to the Beijing 50 Index, with respective increases of 14 percentage points and 4 percentage points [3][14] - The average market capitalization of the Specialized and Innovative Index is lower than that of the Beijing 50 Index, with values of 4.71 billion and 6.20 billion respectively, indicating a focus on smaller companies [3][19] Group 2 - The Specialized and Innovative Index has shown strong performance, achieving a year-to-date return of 44.11%, outperforming other specialized indices [4][38][41] - The index primarily focuses on industries such as industrial, information technology, and materials, with industrial companies making up 39.97% of the index [4][39] - The turnover rate of the Specialized and Innovative Index is higher than that of other indices, indicating better liquidity, with a turnover rate of 5.92% as of August 1, 2025 [4][40] Group 3 - The report notes a significant increase in the popularity of ETF investments, with the number of personal holdings rising from 7.76 billion to 742.78 billion from 2015 to 2024 [5][61] - The Beijing 50 Index fund has reached a scale of 11.32 billion, with an increasing number of tracking products, indicating a growing interest in index-based investments [5][65] - The report anticipates that the rise of index-based investments will enhance liquidity and restructure the ecosystem of the Beijing Stock Exchange, potentially leading to a revaluation of high-growth companies [5][70]

Group 1 - The Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) has maintained a strong performance in 2025, with the core indicator, the North Exchange 50 Index, showing a year-to-date increase of 37.59%, outperforming the Hong Kong stock market during the same period [1] - The robust performance of the BSE has led to significant increases in the net value of related thematic funds, with all 11 actively managed two-year open-end funds and 26 North Exchange 50 index funds achieving positive returns year-to-date as of June 11 [3][4] - Among the standout funds, the CITIC Securities North Exchange Selected Two-Year Open A Fund has achieved a remarkable year-to-date increase of 70.96%, while the Huaxia North Exchange Innovative Small and Medium Enterprises Selected Fund has a three-year cumulative return of 176.10%, ranking first in the market [4][5] Group 2 - The 26 funds tracking the North Exchange 50 Index have also achieved positive returns, but their overall performance is slightly less impressive compared to actively managed funds. Only four funds have managed to outperform their benchmarks as of June 10 [6][7] - The top-performing fund among the index funds is the GF North Exchange 50 Component A Fund, with a year-to-date net value growth rate of 37.54%, while the Qianhai Kaiyuan North Exchange 50 Component Index A Fund has achieved a 9.74% excess return, making it the strongest performer in its category [6][7] - Investors looking for liquidity and average market returns may prefer the North Exchange 50 index funds, which offer a more flexible investment tool compared to the closed-end funds [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and investment opportunities in the North Exchange, particularly focusing on the North 50 Index and related investment products, highlighting the challenges and potential strategies for investors in the current market environment [1][2][4]. Group 1: North 50 Index Performance - The North 50 Index has shown strong performance, with a recent increase of 5.01% over the last seven trading days after a brief correction [1]. - The North 50 Index is noted as having the best upward elasticity among large-cap indices, making it difficult for individual investors to outperform it [2]. Group 2: Investment Products Analysis - There are currently 27 North 50 index funds available, with older funds (launched before September 24, 2022) showing an average growth rate of 122%, while newer funds have underperformed relative to the index [2][3]. - The maximum drawdown for these funds is generally around 30%, which is slightly better than the North 50's drawdown of 38.63% [3]. Group 3: Active Management Funds - Among actively managed funds, the "Hua Xia North Exchange Innovation Small and Medium Enterprises Selected Two-Year Open Mixed Fund" has shown significant excess returns with a drawdown controlled under 20% [4]. - The "CITIC Construction Investment North Exchange Selected Two-Year Open Mixed A" fund also demonstrated excellent excess returns and drawdown ratios [4]. Group 4: Market Conditions and Recommendations - Current market conditions suggest that both public active products and index products are not ideal for investing in the North Exchange, but index products may serve as a reasonable option if investors have confidence in the index itself [5]. - For investors lacking judgment capabilities regarding the North Exchange, seeking private equity products may offer more flexible terms compared to public offerings [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that multiple North Exchange 50 index funds have recently announced restrictions on large purchases to protect the interests of fund shareholders and ensure stable fund operations [1][5][6] - The North Exchange 50 index has shown impressive performance this year, leading to significant gains in related theme funds, with an average net value growth rate exceeding 42% for 11 North Exchange theme funds as of May 28 [7][9] - Several fund companies, including Tianhong, Zhongou, and Industrial Bank of China, have implemented purchase limits, with specific daily purchase caps ranging from 3,000 yuan to 50,000 yuan [2][5][8] Group 2 - As of the end of the first quarter, the Tianhong North Exchange 50 index fund had a scale of 355 million yuan, with a year-to-date net value growth rate of nearly 30% [3] - The North Exchange's overall market capitalization is relatively small, and a large influx of funds could lead to liquidity pressure, prompting the current purchase restrictions [6] - The introduction of new regulatory measures and a focus on small-cap stocks have contributed to the increased activity and performance of related funds, with some funds achieving net value growth rates as high as 66.90% [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - Several high-performing North Exchange theme funds have implemented purchase limits to maintain strategy effectiveness and protect investor interests [1][2] Group 1: Fund Performance and Market Dynamics - As of May 19, nearly 80% of North Exchange theme funds have seen net value increases exceeding 30% this year, with many products ranking high in their categories [2] - The rapid increase in net value indicates potential short-term volatility risks, prompting multiple North Exchange theme funds to impose purchase limits [2] - Fund managers believe that the recent revisions to major asset restructuring rules and the introduction of a "small and fast" review mechanism have invigorated the overall vitality of the sector [2][4] Group 2: Fund Company Competition and Strategy - Fund companies such as Baoying, Qianhai Kaiyuan, Yongying, and Huatai Bairui have launched new North Exchange 50 index funds this year, indicating increased competition [4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has emphasized the importance of performance comparison benchmarks, leading to a restructuring of benchmarks among North Exchange theme funds [4] - Recent adjustments in performance benchmarks reflect fund companies' proactive management capabilities and aim to enhance product transparency [4]

Core Viewpoint - The North Exchange (北交所) has shown exceptional performance, particularly the North Exchange 50 index, which has outperformed major indices significantly in 2023, with a year-to-date increase of over 37% [1][2]. Group 1: Index Performance - The North Exchange 50 index has a return of 37.06%, far exceeding other indices such as the 中证2000 at 8.8% and the 万得全A at 1.74% [2]. - The North Exchange 50 index reached a peak of 1429.45 points, with the potential to challenge the March high of 1447.97 points [1]. Group 2: Investment Attraction - The North Exchange is increasingly attractive to investors, particularly due to the emergence of specialized "little giant" companies under policy guidance, which are expected to excel in future technology cycles [2]. - Companies with forward-looking layouts in the North Exchange are anticipated to achieve excess returns as market demand continues to expand [2]. Group 3: Fund Management and Restrictions - Several fund companies have implemented large purchase restrictions for North Exchange 50 index funds, with limits set at 200,000 yuan and 50,000 yuan for different funds [3][4]. - As of the end of Q1 2023, the total shares of a specific fund were 2.27 billion, with a cap set at 5 billion shares [3]. Group 4: Institutional Investment - In Q1 2025, the market value of publicly offered funds heavily invested in North Exchange stocks reached 6.743 billion yuan, indicating growing mainstream interest [5]. - Active funds focused on the North Exchange have shown significant net value growth, with some exceeding 65% [5]. Group 5: Fund Performance Comparison - Various North Exchange 50 index funds have reported annualized returns exceeding 30%, with standout performances from 广发北证50成份A at 36.01% and 易方达北证50成份A at 34.31% [5][8]. - The performance of these funds has generally outpaced the 沪深300 index, demonstrating their ability to capture market opportunities effectively [8]. Group 6: Market Outlook - Analysts express a cautiously optimistic view on the North Exchange and its constituent companies, suggesting a potential for long-term investment value [9].

Group 1 - In Q1 2025, public fund institutions' heavy positions in the Beijing Stock Exchange reached a record high of 6.743 billion yuan, an increase of 24.45% compared to the end of 2024, accounting for 0.11% of public funds in A-share market [1][9][10] - The number of public fund institutions investing in the Beijing Stock Exchange also hit a record high, with 34 institutions participating, a growth of 17.24% from the end of 2024 [1][10] - The total scale of the North Certificate 50 index fund reached 9.539 billion yuan as of April 30, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.63% [1][14] Group 2 - The average return of 11 thematic funds in the Beijing Stock Exchange reached 33.48% in 2025, with all funds reporting positive returns [1][15][20] - Among the top 20 companies by institutional holdings, six companies saw an increase of over 1 million shares, including Binhang Technology and Audiwei, while three companies experienced a reduction of over 1 million shares [1][20][21] Group 3 - The overall PE ratio of the North Certificate A-shares increased from 45.22X to 46.46X, indicating a rising valuation trend [2][24] - As of April 30, 2025, 132 companies had a PE ratio exceeding 45X, accounting for 50% of the total, with 54 companies exceeding 105X [2][35] - The average PE ratios for key industries such as Information Technology and Chemical New Materials were 95.68X and 36.67X respectively, indicating high valuations in these sectors [2][37][41] Group 4 - The IPO review process saw three new companies accepted and one company terminated its listing as of April 30, 2025 [3][22] - The market performance of the North Certificate 50 index showed a 2.38% increase, closing at 1331.13 points [2][29][33]