在美国非农数据公布后，黄金爆发。 黄金直线拉升。截至发稿，现货黄金报4322美元/盎司，报涨0.41%。 美国国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特表示，总统特朗普认为，利率可以下降，许多人认同那样的看法。他表示，美联储利率似乎与其他央行脱 节，"如果我担任美联储主席，我会与联储官员们'谈判'；鉴于供给侧冲击，美联储存在大量降息空间，大幅削减赤字是经济和下调利率的关键。" 最新数据显示，美国就业数据喜忧参半：美国11月非农就业人口增长6.4万人，预期5万人；美国11月失业率4.6%，预期4.5%。与此同时，10月就业人 数大幅减少10.5万人，降幅明显超过此前市场预期的减少2.5万人。 12月标普全球制造业PMI初值51.8，创7月份以来新低，预期52.1，前值52.2；新订单分项指数初值降低至49.6，结束之前的扩张趋势。 美股方面，三大指数在短线拉升后跳水，截至收盘，道琼斯指数跌0.62%，报48,114.26点；标普500指数跌0.24%，报6,800.26点；纳斯达克指数涨 0.23%，报23,111.46点。 数据公布后，美国联邦基金利率期货市场对美联储1月降息的预期概率小幅升至31%，数据公布前仅为22% ...

周一亚洲股市小幅上涨，投资者为"超级央行周"做准备，美股指数期货小幅上扬，美元指数微跌，日本10年期国债收益率创 2007年7月来最高水平。 市场谨慎情绪持续，全球股指继续徘徊在10月创下的历史高点附近，投资者对今年人工智能驱动的涨势可否持续保持疑虑。 日本5年期国债收益率上行至1.44%，创2008年6月以来新高。日本10年期国债收益率升至1.955%，为2007年7月以来最高水 平。日本30年期国债收益率上行2.5个基点，至3.380%。日本11月经济观察家前景指数50.3，远不及预期53.1。早间，日本发布 的三季度GDP超预期萎缩。 美联储决议成本周焦点，但2026年路径不明 Pepperstone Group研究主管Chris Weston在报告中表示，联邦公开市场委员会会议将是本周的头号风险事件。降息25个基点已 被完全定价且被视为板上钉钉，但真正的争论焦点在于"鹰派降息"会是什么样子，以及声明和美联储主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会 是否符合这一被广泛预期的结果。 LME铜价涨幅扩大，突破每吨11742美元，创纪录新高。 巴克莱策略师Andrea Kiguel等人在给客户的报告中指出，虽然美联储本周可能降 ...

Group 1 - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve are driving risk-averse sentiment, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts ahead of the upcoming monetary policy meeting [1] - The U.S. stock index futures are declining, with the Dow futures down 0.1%, S&P 500 futures down 0.06%, and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.14% [2] - European stocks opened lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.04%, DAX down 0.2%, and FTSE 100 down 0.25%, while the CAC 40 index increased by 0.3% [2] Group 2 - Gold and silver prices have surged to record highs, with spot gold surpassing $3,500 and silver reaching a 14-year high, driven by risk aversion and expectations of rate cuts [2] - The Japanese 10-year government bond auction showed strong demand, with the bid-to-cover ratio reaching the highest level since October 2023, leading to a decrease in yields [2] - Crude oil prices have increased, with Brent crude rising by 0.57% to $68.52 per barrel and WTI crude up 1.59% to $64.99 per barrel [2]

Market Overview - US stock index futures and European stocks rose due to progress in multiple trade negotiations, while Asian markets remained flat [1] - The Japanese stock market increased by 0.8% as Japan's chief negotiator extended their stay in the US to seek an agreement [4] - Canadian withdrawal of the digital services tax for tech companies aims to restart negotiations with the US, strengthening the Canadian dollar and boosting US tech stock futures [1] Asset Performance - Major US stock index futures rose, with Nasdaq 100 and Dow futures up approximately 0.5%, and S&P 500 futures also increasing by about 0.5% [2] - European stocks saw slight gains, with the pan-European index, UK stocks, and French stocks rising over 0.1%, while German stocks increased by over 0.2% [3] - The Nikkei 225 index closed up 0.8% following the extension of negotiations in the US [4] Currency and Commodity Movements - The US dollar index fell by approximately 0.2%, while the Japanese yen rose over 0.5% [5] - The South Korean won rose over 1% to its highest level since October last year, currently up about 0.7% [6] - Spot gold and silver increased by about 0.6% [9] - Crude oil prices declined, with US oil down about 0.4% and Brent oil down about 0.2% [10] Geopolitical and Trade Developments - Easing geopolitical risks and expectations of imminent trade agreements have added momentum to risk assets [12] - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Trump agreed to restart negotiations aiming for an agreement by July 21 [13] - French Finance Minister Eric Lombard indicated that the EU is likely to reach some form of trade agreement with the US before the July 9 deadline to avoid significant tariffs on EU products [13] - India's trade team has also extended their stay in Washington to resolve differences before the July 9 deadline [13]