【冠通期货研究报告】 关注经济数据发布 发布日期：2025 年 11 月 18 日 【行情分析】 资料来源：同花顺期货通（日线图表） 【期现行情】 期货方面：沪铜高开低走，日内震荡偏弱。 现货方面：今日华东现货升贴水 55 元/吨，华南现货升贴水 5 元/吨。2025 年 11 月 17 日，LME 官方价 10802.5 美元/吨，现货升贴水-3.5 美元/吨。 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨询部 -500 -300 -100 100 300 500 700 900 华东阴极铜升贴水（元/吨） 2022 2023 2024 2025 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 华南阴极铜升贴水（元/吨） 2022 2023 2024 2025 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 LME铜期货收盘价 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 LME铜现货升贴水 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 【供给端】 截至 11 月 17 日最新数据显示，现货粗炼费（TC）-41.82 美元 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The copper market has stopped falling and rebounded. The supply - demand tight balance provides support, and the improvement in US employment data boosts the macro - expectation preference, while the strengthening US dollar suppresses the upside space of copper prices [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened higher and moved up during the day. The US government shutdown has a negative impact on the market. The US October ADP employment report showed an increase of 42,000 jobs, better than expected. The smelting processing fee is negative and stable, indicating a tight copper ore resource. An accident in the Indonesian copper mine will affect global copper supply until next year. There are still five smelters with maintenance plans in November, and copper production is on a downward trend. Higher copper prices may increase scrap copper supply. The rising copper prices have suppressed downstream demand, and the Shanghai copper inventory has increased slightly [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and moved up during the day. Spot: The spot premium in East China is 25 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 15 yuan/ton. On November 5, 2025, the LME official price was 10,639.5 dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 36.5 dollars/ton [4] Supply Side - As of November 4, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 42.06 dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.13 cents/pound [8] Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory is 43,900 tons, an increase of 6,456 tons from the previous period. As of November 3, the Shanghai Free Trade Zone copper inventory is 100,100 tons, a decrease of 6,500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 134,000 tons, an increase of 300 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 363,400 short tons, an increase of 2,005 short tons from the previous period [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The US government shutdown continues to affect market risk appetite, and the copper market has been weak recently. The downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the support during the peak season has weakened. There is no clear signal for copper prices [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened low and moved high, showing a weak trend during the day. The US Senate failed to pass the government's temporary appropriation bill again, and the government shutdown may break the historical record. The copper ore resources are tight, and the accident at the Indonesian copper mine is expected to affect the global copper supply until next year. Although the copper concentrate inventory has increased this week, it is still significantly lower than the same period last year. The market expects the long - term contract price to be zero or negative. In October, 8 smelters were under maintenance, and 5 are expected to be under maintenance in November, leading to a downward trend in copper production. With the recent rise in copper prices, the downstream demand has been suppressed, and the downstream operating rates have slightly declined. The Shanghai copper inventory has increased slightly [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened low and moved high, showing a weak trend during the day. - Spot: The spot premium in East China is 30 yuan/ton, and in South China it is - 15 yuan/ton. On November 3, 2025, the LME official price was 10624 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 24 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of November 4, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 42.06 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.13 cents/pound [8]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory is 42,600 tons, an increase of 6816 tons from the previous period. As of November 3, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 100,100 tons, a decrease of 6500 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory is 133,900 tons, a decrease of 1025 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory is 360,500 short tons, an increase of 2826 short tons from the previous period [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The rebound space of copper prices is limited. Overseas interest rate cuts in October are a foregone conclusion, and the impact of Sino - US trade conflicts and the US government shutdown has led to a pessimistic market outlook, suppressing the upward space of copper prices. Fundamentally, there is high resistance to high prices in the domestic market, but the domestic copper export window is open, reducing the pressure of inventory accumulation. It is the peak consumption season in October, providing fundamental support. The previous copper futures price has broken through the long - term oscillation range, and the market is mainly strong. However, as the peak season ends, demand support will weaken, and the upward space is insufficient [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower and moved higher, with a strong intraday oscillation [1][4]. - Spot: On October 21, 2025, the spot premium in East China was 55 yuan/ton, and in South China was 65 yuan/ton. The LME official price was 10,610 US dollars/ton, with a spot premium of - 29 US dollars/ton [4]. 3.2 Supply Side - As of October 15, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 40.8 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.08 cents/pound [8]. - Copper concentrate port inventory decreased this week, and is significantly lower than the same period last year. Smelters are still under maintenance, with low output levels. LME copper prices are rising, and smelters plan to ship copper spot to LME, which may further reduce the domestic circulation volume [1]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory was 37,700 tons, an increase of 1,383 tons from the previous period. As of October 20, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 108,700 tons, an increase of 8,700 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 137,200 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 346,600 short tons, an increase of 1,035 short tons from the previous period [11].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The Fed's September FOMC meeting cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, and the median dot plot implies a total of 3 rate cuts this year and 1 next year. The TC/RC fees remain weakly stable, and the factory seasonal maintenance plan will lead to production cuts in September and October. The supply of refined copper remains tight. Although the price has been pushed up recently, the downstream trading atmosphere has improved, but the realization of the peak - season expectation remains to be seen. The SHFE inventory has started to accumulate. Overall, after the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation was realized, the previous gains were partly given back, but the fundamentals are still tight. The domestic copper production is expected to decrease significantly, which will support the copper price. It is recommended to buy on dips moderately [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Strategy Analysis - The previous trading of the Fed's 50bp interest - rate cut expectation led to a price increase, and after the cut of 25bp was realized, part of the gains were given back. The fundamentals are tight. The domestic copper production is expected to be significantly affected by the reduction of scrap copper imports and domestic smelter maintenance, which will support the copper price. With the approaching of the double festivals, downstream stocking will increase, so it is advisable to buy on dips moderately [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower with a gap and fluctuated weakly, closing at 79,620 yuan/ton at the end of the session. Spot: The spot premium in East China and South China is 60 yuan/ton. On September 167, 2025, the LME official price was 9,963 dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 69 dollars/ton [4] Supply Side - As of September 12, the spot TC was - 41.42 dollars/dry ton, and the spot RC was - 4.16 cents/pound. The 8 - month SMM China electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 15.59%. Affected by policies, the supply of scrap copper in September will decrease significantly, and smelters have maintenance plans, so the electrolytic copper production in September is expected to drop sharply [1][7] Inventory - SHFE copper inventory is 32,500 tons, a decrease of 822 tons from the previous period. As of September 15, the Shanghai bonded area copper inventory is 76,400 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 148,900 tons, a decrease of 1,175 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 312,800 short tons, a decrease of 26 short tons from the previous period [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is trading on the expected magnitude of the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index continues to weaken. Fundamentally, domestic copper production is expected to decrease significantly due to reduced scrap copper imports and domestic smelter maintenance, which will support copper prices. However, the recent significant inventory accumulation on the SHFE will limit the upside space of the market [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Analysis - On September 17, 2025, Shanghai copper opened lower and moved lower throughout the day. As of September 12, the domestic spot smelting fee (TC) was -41.42 dollars per dry ton, and the refining fee (RC) was -4.16 cents per pound, with TC/RC fees remaining weakly stable. Factory seasonal maintenance in September and October will lead to reduced production, and small and medium - sized smelters are facing profit pressure, so the supply of refined copper remains tight. In August, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 15.59%. Affected by policies, the supply of scrap copper in September will decrease significantly, and smelters have maintenance plans in September, so the electrolytic copper production in September is expected to drop sharply. Although prices have been pushed up recently, the downstream trading atmosphere has improved. The realization of the peak - season expectations remains to be seen. The SHFE copper inventory has slightly increased, with an increase of 6,633 tons from last week. Increased imports and high prices have suppressed copper demand, and the inventory accumulation trend has gradually begun [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower and moved lower throughout the day, closing at 80,560 yuan per ton at the end of the session. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 60 yuan per ton, and in South China it was 40 yuan per ton. On September 16, 2025, the LME official price was 10,144 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was -72.5 dollars per ton [4]. 3.3 Supply Side - As of September 12, the latest data showed that the spot smelting fee (TC) was -41.42 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was -4.16 cents per pound [7]. 3.4 Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 33,300 tons, a decrease of 401 tons from the previous period. As of September 15, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 76,400 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 149,800 tons, a decrease of 1,675 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 312,900 short tons, an increase of 1,021 short tons from the previous period [11].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The copper market is in a volatile situation, with the market waiting for new drivers. The geopolitical conflict is escalating, increasing market risk aversion and expectations of economic uncertainty. The Fed's FOMC meeting hinted at two potential rate cuts this year. Fundamentally, the supply side has an increase in refined copper concentrate port inventory, and the negative expansion of domestic smelting fees signals a potential reduction in production, supporting the bottom space of copper prices. However, copper production remains at a high level. On the demand side, downstream purchasing willingness is low, the market is cautious in the face of high prices, and the downstream operating rate has slowed down. The terminal wire and cable industry maintains resilience, but the home appliance industry's production schedule has shrunk, and the real estate industry has a negative impact. Overall, the fundamentals have no significant fluctuations, maintaining the logic of tight supply expectations and weakening marginal demand. The copper price is affected by copper tariff policies and the Middle - East situation, fluctuating within a range. Before breaking through the upper resistance level, the market is expected to maintain a narrow - range shock, and the downside space is also limited by tight supply expectations [1]. Group 3: Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper market opened higher and faced pressure during the day. Geopolitical conflicts have led to increased risk aversion and economic uncertainty, making investors cautious. The Fed's FOMC meeting hinted at two potential rate cuts this year. On the supply side, the port inventory of refined copper concentrate has increased, and the negative expansion of domestic smelting fees signals a potential reduction in production, supporting the bottom space of copper prices. However, copper production remains at a high level. On the demand side, downstream purchasing willingness is low, the market is cautious in the face of high prices, and the downstream operating rate has slowed down. The terminal wire and cable industry maintains resilience, but the home appliance industry's production schedule has shrunk, and the real estate industry has a negative impact. The market is waiting for new guidance, and before breaking through the upper resistance level, the market is expected to maintain a narrow - range shock, and the downside space is limited by tight supply expectations [1]. Group 4: Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The Shanghai copper market opened higher and closed slightly lower, at 78,310. The long positions of the top 20 were 123,219 lots, a decrease of 3,503 lots; the short positions were 110,314 lots, a decrease of 5,170 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 140 yuan/ton, and in South China was 135 yuan/ton. On June 18, 2025, the LME official price was $9,684/ton, and the spot premium was $156.5/ton [4]. Group 5: Supply Side - As of June 13, the spot smelting fee (TC) was -$43.91/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was -4.40 cents/pound [6]. Group 6: Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 44,800 tons, a decrease of 2,198 tons from the previous period. As of June 17, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 59,800 tons, an increase of 3,300 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 103,300 tons, a slight decrease of 4,025 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 199,900 short tons, an increase of 1,544 short tons from the previous period [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The copper market is in a narrow - range fluctuation. The Fed's interest - rate cut sentiment is rising but still in a tug - of - war. Under the game between bulls and bears, the market is oscillating, with limited upside and downside space. It may face short - term pressure, but the medium - to - long - term trend is bullish [1]. - The supply side remains tight, with a tight situation in the mining end and high costs for smelters. Although copper production has increased against the trend, the cost pressure on smelters is obvious. The demand side shows resilience, but there may be a marginal weakening in May compared to April [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper market opened lower and moved lower today, under pressure. The US April PPI unexpectedly dropped by 0.5% month - on - month, the largest decline in five years. The supply side is tight, and the smelter cost is high. The downstream is resistant to high prices. The demand in May may be marginally weaker than in April. The market is in a multi - empty game and is likely to be in a narrow - range oscillation [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Opened high, moved low, and closed down. The closing price was 78140. The number of long orders of the top twenty decreased by 3014 to 124860 hands, and the number of short orders decreased by 5012 to 112073 hands. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 425 yuan/ton, and in South China was 400 yuan/ton. On May 14, 2025, the LME official price was 9523 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was 14.5 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of May 9, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 43.6 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.37 cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 63,200 tons, an increase of 2700 tons from the previous period. As of May 12, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 71,300 tons, a decrease of 14,500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 184,700 tons, a slight decrease of 925 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 168,600 short tons, an increase of 1928 short tons from the previous period [9].