Export Data and Tariff Impact - In April, China's export growth showed a marginal slowdown, with a significant decline in exports to the US, indicating the actual impact of tariff increases is becoming evident [1][10] - The export growth structure can be categorized into three scenarios: overall export slowdown with simultaneous declines in both US and non-US exports, export decline to the US but an increase in non-US exports, and a decline in US exports with overall export growth improving due to non-US exports [2][12] - Industries facing significant revenue impact due to export declines include home appliances, non-ferrous metals, light industry, machinery, and textiles [2][14] Monthly Market Review - In May, risk assets generally experienced a recovery, with A-shares showing a preference for value styles, while sectors like environmental protection, pharmaceuticals, and military industries led the gains [3][21] - The market saw a mixed performance with fluctuations in risk appetite, influenced by tariff negotiations and concerns over US debt risks [3][21] June Market Outlook and Allocation Recommendations - The market is expected to continue its oscillation with a downward shift in the central tendency, influenced by tariff expectations and policy anticipation [4][5] - The recommendation is to increase allocation in low-volatility dividend stocks, focusing on sectors like electricity, banking, and consumer goods, while also considering trading opportunities in emerging technologies such as AI and robotics [5][6]

Domestic Analysis - In the second week of April, domestic production rates showed a general decline, indicating adjustments due to tariff impacts, with demand indicators remaining weak and price pressures increasing[1] - The Trump administration's tariff policy remains uncertain, with many non-U.S. countries receiving a 90-day tariff exemption, potentially accelerating exports[1] - Recent high-frequency data suggests a cooling in automotive demand while daily consumer goods continue to see increased exports[1] Overseas Analysis - The 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs aligns with Trump's negotiation strategy, indicating a need for more time to reach solutions[2] - On April 10, the U.S. markets experienced a significant downturn, raising concerns about a liquidity crisis; however, past experiences suggest that the Federal Reserve responds quickly to such crises, often leading to a V-shaped recovery in the stock market[2] - Short-term, the yuan faces depreciation pressure due to tariffs, but the central bank's stabilization measures suggest limited downward movement, with the yuan expected to fluctuate between 7.15 and 7.35[2] Asset Performance - Domestic equity markets are currently experiencing a dual bull market in stocks and bonds, with technology and export-related sectors showing relative strength[1] - The bond market is expected to face renewed pressure once economic downturns are alleviated, while the stock market remains supported by domestic policies[1] - Recent data indicates a decline in A-share indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.11% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 5.13% for the week[41]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [13] Core Insights - The U.S. has exempted certain products from "reciprocal tariffs," including automatic data processors, computers, communication devices, displays, and semiconductors, which may positively impact the supply chain [2][3] - The previous impact of tariffs on the fruit chain companies was overestimated, as domestic suppliers are deemed irreplaceable by Apple, suggesting potential recovery opportunities in the sector [3] - Domestic smartphone brands are showing strong performance, with a projected shipment of 314 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, and domestic brands accounting for 85.6% of the market [4] Summary by Sections Tariff Exemption - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection has quietly updated its tariff schedule, exempting certain categories of goods from tariffs, which applies to all countries affected by the previous "reciprocal tariffs" [2] Impact on Supply Chain - The report suggests that the previous concerns regarding tariffs affecting fruit chain companies were exaggerated, and that Apple’s strict requirements for suppliers indicate a strong position for domestic companies [3] Domestic Smartphone Market - According to data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, domestic smartphone shipments are expected to reach 269 million units in 2024, reflecting a 16.3% year-on-year growth [4] Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on: - 3D printing applications (e.g., Huazhu High-Tech, Plittech) - Automated assembly equipment (e.g., Bozhong Precision, Saiteng Co., Quick Intelligent) - Automated testing equipment (e.g., Oatmeal Technology, Jepter, Kory Technology, Tianzhun Technology, Rongqi Technology) - Android-based 3C devices (e.g., Qiangrui Technology, Lihexing, Kory Technology, Quick Intelligent) - Folding screen hinges (e.g., Dongmu Co., Jingyan Technology, Tonglian Precision) - Middle frames and back covers (e.g., Yujing Co., Yuhuan CNC) [5]

文 ｜ 裘翔 刘春彤 杨家骥 高玉森 连一席 杨帆 遥远 于翔 玛西高娃 中 美 贸 易 战 升 级 的 背 景 下 ， 投 资 者 该 如 何 应 对 ？ 我 们 汇 总 了 近 期 投 资 者 最 关 心 的 1 0 个 问 题，涵盖了贸易战的演化、海外经济、国内政策、国内市场的走向以及行业配置应对等。 整体而言，我们建议聚焦在特朗普所面临的约束而不是揣测其目的，把美国经济和美债利 率作为预判贸易战走向和节奏的关键变量，在各种约束下，我们预计美国中期选举前，中 美经贸领域冲突全面蔓延到金融领域的概率不大；我们预计4月国内的政策应对以预防和 试点为主，而年中将迎来政策规模的扩容，在中央汇金等主体稳定市场的坚定决心下，A 股短期的"筹码底"已经见到，4~5月可能以科技主题型行情的交易型机会为主，而基本面 预期或在三季度稳定下来，届时消费、先进制造和周期当中的核心资产将明显占优，出现 2 0 2 1年以来最重要的一次风格切换。 怎么去应对特朗普频繁变动、 左右摇摆带来的不确定性？ 目前美国宏观和微观的"硬数据"仍强，这可能是特朗普推动贸易战的底气，但是美国衰退的概 率在迅速提升。截至4月9日，亚特兰大联储GDP ...

2025.04. 12 本文字数：280，阅读时长大约1分钟 来源 | 参考消息 据台湾"中时新闻网"4月12日报道，美国海关与边境保护局（CBP）11日悄然发布了更新税则，豁免 了包含自动数据处理器、电脑、通信设备、显示器与模组、半导体相关等类别商品的进口税率，不 受"对等关税"影响。 报道称，部分商品若符合美国《协调关税税则》中所列明的分类号码，将可获得"对等关税"豁免。这 些商品包括电脑与周边设备、半导体制造设备、通信设备、存储设备、显示模组、半导体器件与集成 电路等。 报道称，本次关税豁免适用于所有受特朗普"对等关税"影响的国家。 微信编辑 | 格蕾丝 推荐阅读 新修订《婚姻登记条例》自5月10日起施行 FS 下 ...