炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：雪涛宏观笔记 AI已成为了全球贸易不可忽视的重要组成部分，中国作为全球最大的AI商品出口国，美国作为全球AI 投资的领头羊，美国AI投资能否维持高位直接影响到中国出口的景气度。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人孙永乐 AI投资已成为全球经济不可忽视的部分。2025年前三季度，广义AI投资拉动美国实际GDP同比增速0.8 个百分点，成为美国经济增长的重要引擎。BIS数据显示，从2022年开始AI投资在美国GDP中占比逐年 提高，截至2025年中期，IT制造和数据中心投资占美国GDP的1%，加上软件和其他设备后的比重达到 5%，已超过2000年"互联网泡沫"时期的巅峰水平。Gartner估计2025年全球AI支出为1.8万亿美元，2026 年扩张至2.5万亿美元。在AI投资热潮的带动下，IMF估计2026年全球经济增速上行至3.3%。 AI贸易也正在高速增长。WTO数据显示，2025年二季度全球AI相关商品贸易同比增长21.7%，远高于非 AI相关商品贸易4.2%的增速，AI相关商品占全球贸易规模的15%，对全球商品贸易增速的贡献率超过 4 ...

Core Viewpoint - AI has become an indispensable part of global trade, with China being the largest exporter of AI products and the U.S. leading in AI investment, which directly impacts the export dynamics of China [1][2][23]. Group 1: AI Investment and Economic Impact - AI investment has significantly contributed to the U.S. economy, boosting the actual GDP growth rate by 0.8 percentage points in the first three quarters of 2025, making it a crucial growth engine [4]. - By mid-2025, AI investment in the U.S. is projected to account for 5% of GDP, surpassing the peak levels seen during the "dot-com bubble" in 2000 [4]. - Global AI spending is estimated to reach $1.8 trillion in 2025 and expand to $2.5 trillion by 2026, with the IMF forecasting a global economic growth rate of 3.3% in 2026 due to the AI investment boom [4]. Group 2: AI Trade Growth - AI-related trade is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected year-on-year increase of 21.7% in the second quarter of 2025, significantly outpacing the 4.2% growth of non-AI related trade [6]. - AI-related products are expected to constitute 15% of global trade by 2025, contributing over 40% to the overall growth of global merchandise trade [6]. - The WTO estimates that by 2040, global trade volume will increase by 34%-37% compared to 2025, with global GDP rising by 12%-13% due to the diffusion of AI technology and related trade [6]. Group 3: AI Product Categories and Trade Dynamics - The AI industry chain consists of five layers: hardware, cloud computing, data, models, and applications, with trade primarily focused on the hardware layer [9]. - The narrow definition of AI-related trade encompasses 104 categories, while a broader definition includes 138 categories, covering raw materials, intermediate goods, and equipment [9]. - In 2024, the narrow AI product trade is projected to reach $3.3 trillion, accounting for 13.6% of global trade, with a year-on-year growth of 10.2% [10]. Group 4: Regional Trade Insights - Major exporters of AI-related products include mainland China, the EU, ASEAN, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and the U.S., collectively accounting for 91% of global AI trade [14]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, mainland China's AI-related product exports totaled $840.7 billion, representing 22% of its total exports, with a year-on-year growth of 10.9% [18]. - The export growth of AI-related products in regions like Taiwan and Hong Kong has significantly outpaced other goods, indicating the dominant role of AI trade in regional export performance [14]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Challenges - The U.S. has increased tariffs on AI-related imports from China to 40%, which may lead to a decline in direct trade, pushing some exports through intermediaries like Hong Kong and ASEAN [21]. - The sustainability of U.S. AI investment is critical, as historical trends show that declines in investment can lead to significant drops in GDP growth, affecting both AI and non-AI related trade [26].

帮我 AI 贸易已经成为了全球贸易中不可忽视的重要部分。中国作为全球最大的 AI 商品出口国，美国作为全球 AI 投 资扩张的领头羊，美国 AI 投资能否维持高位决定了今年中国出口高景气度能否延续。同时，BIS 研究显示，在 此前几次投资热潮退坡时（如 90 年代互联网泡沫、2010 年前后的页岩投资），美国 GDP 增速降幅均超过 1 个百 分点，如果美国 AI 泡沫破裂，负面溢出效应或导致美国经济大幅回落进而拖累全球经济和一般贸易。 风险提示 本文对 AI 贸易商品的数据部分基于估算数据，估算方法或存在一定偏差。 AI 投资不确定性较高，AI 投资带来的 AI 贸易不确定性也在提升，关注 AI 投资变化对贸易的影响。 全球 AI 贸易政策正在发生较大变化，美国对等关税等对 AI 贸易的影响也还在延续，关注政策变化对 AI 贸易的影响。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 宏观经济报告 AI 投资已成为全球经济不可忽视的部分。2025 年前三季度，广义 AI 投资拉动美国实际 GDP 同比增速 0.8 个百 分点，成为美国经济增长的重要引擎。BIS 数据显示，从 2022 年开始 AI 投资在美 ...

Export Data and Tariff Impact - In April, China's export growth showed a marginal slowdown, with a significant decline in exports to the US, indicating the actual impact of tariff increases is becoming evident [1][10] - The export growth structure can be categorized into three scenarios: overall export slowdown with simultaneous declines in both US and non-US exports, export decline to the US but an increase in non-US exports, and a decline in US exports with overall export growth improving due to non-US exports [2][12] - Industries facing significant revenue impact due to export declines include home appliances, non-ferrous metals, light industry, machinery, and textiles [2][14] Monthly Market Review - In May, risk assets generally experienced a recovery, with A-shares showing a preference for value styles, while sectors like environmental protection, pharmaceuticals, and military industries led the gains [3][21] - The market saw a mixed performance with fluctuations in risk appetite, influenced by tariff negotiations and concerns over US debt risks [3][21] June Market Outlook and Allocation Recommendations - The market is expected to continue its oscillation with a downward shift in the central tendency, influenced by tariff expectations and policy anticipation [4][5] - The recommendation is to increase allocation in low-volatility dividend stocks, focusing on sectors like electricity, banking, and consumer goods, while also considering trading opportunities in emerging technologies such as AI and robotics [5][6]

Domestic Analysis - In the second week of April, domestic production rates showed a general decline, indicating adjustments due to tariff impacts, with demand indicators remaining weak and price pressures increasing[1] - The Trump administration's tariff policy remains uncertain, with many non-U.S. countries receiving a 90-day tariff exemption, potentially accelerating exports[1] - Recent high-frequency data suggests a cooling in automotive demand while daily consumer goods continue to see increased exports[1] Overseas Analysis - The 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs aligns with Trump's negotiation strategy, indicating a need for more time to reach solutions[2] - On April 10, the U.S. markets experienced a significant downturn, raising concerns about a liquidity crisis; however, past experiences suggest that the Federal Reserve responds quickly to such crises, often leading to a V-shaped recovery in the stock market[2] - Short-term, the yuan faces depreciation pressure due to tariffs, but the central bank's stabilization measures suggest limited downward movement, with the yuan expected to fluctuate between 7.15 and 7.35[2] Asset Performance - Domestic equity markets are currently experiencing a dual bull market in stocks and bonds, with technology and export-related sectors showing relative strength[1] - The bond market is expected to face renewed pressure once economic downturns are alleviated, while the stock market remains supported by domestic policies[1] - Recent data indicates a decline in A-share indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.11% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 5.13% for the week[41]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [13] Core Insights - The U.S. has exempted certain products from "reciprocal tariffs," including automatic data processors, computers, communication devices, displays, and semiconductors, which may positively impact the supply chain [2][3] - The previous impact of tariffs on the fruit chain companies was overestimated, as domestic suppliers are deemed irreplaceable by Apple, suggesting potential recovery opportunities in the sector [3] - Domestic smartphone brands are showing strong performance, with a projected shipment of 314 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, and domestic brands accounting for 85.6% of the market [4] Summary by Sections Tariff Exemption - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection has quietly updated its tariff schedule, exempting certain categories of goods from tariffs, which applies to all countries affected by the previous "reciprocal tariffs" [2] Impact on Supply Chain - The report suggests that the previous concerns regarding tariffs affecting fruit chain companies were exaggerated, and that Apple’s strict requirements for suppliers indicate a strong position for domestic companies [3] Domestic Smartphone Market - According to data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, domestic smartphone shipments are expected to reach 269 million units in 2024, reflecting a 16.3% year-on-year growth [4] Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on: - 3D printing applications (e.g., Huazhu High-Tech, Plittech) - Automated assembly equipment (e.g., Bozhong Precision, Saiteng Co., Quick Intelligent) - Automated testing equipment (e.g., Oatmeal Technology, Jepter, Kory Technology, Tianzhun Technology, Rongqi Technology) - Android-based 3C devices (e.g., Qiangrui Technology, Lihexing, Kory Technology, Quick Intelligent) - Folding screen hinges (e.g., Dongmu Co., Jingyan Technology, Tonglian Precision) - Middle frames and back covers (e.g., Yujing Co., Yuhuan CNC) [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes focusing on the constraints faced by Trump rather than speculating on his goals, suggesting that the U.S. economy and bond rates are key variables for predicting the trade war's trajectory [1][3]. Group 1: Trade War and Economic Outlook - The probability of the U.S.-China trade conflict spreading to the financial sector before the midterm elections is low, with expectations for a gradual policy response from China [1][3]. - As of April 9, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicts a -2.4% actual GDP growth for Q1 2025, with net exports dragging down by 4.73 percentage points [5]. - The proportion of leading U.S. tech and cyclical companies showing accelerating core operating metrics is expected to drop from 55% in Q4 2024 to 33% in Q1 2025 [5]. Group 2: Domestic Policy Responses - The first round of domestic policy responses in April is expected to focus on prevention and experimentation, with a second round of larger-scale policies anticipated mid-year [9]. - Proposed policies may include interest rate cuts, stimulating capital market activity, and enhancing social security measures, reflecting a shift from traditional investment-driven policies [9]. Group 3: A-Share Market Insights - The A-share market has likely reached a "chip bottom," supported by institutional buying from entities like Central Huijin, which has alleviated liquidity risks [11]. - Significant net subscriptions in major ETFs indicate a recovery in market confidence, with a notable increase in net subscriptions for various indices [13]. Group 4: Investor Sentiment and Positioning - Active private equity positions have stabilized at 80.7%, while public funds have seen a slight decrease in redemption rates, indicating a marginal improvement in investor sentiment [15]. - Recent outflows from overseas funds tracking China suggest a cautious approach from foreign investors, with a total net outflow of $15.6 million reported [15]. Group 5: Future Market Dynamics - The article anticipates a trading opportunity in April-May, with a focus on sectors less correlated with earnings per share (EPS), particularly in technology and autonomous sectors [17]. - Long-term investment strategies should consider sectors benefiting from geopolitical uncertainties, such as energy, defense, and technology, as well as the potential for a recovery in the Apple and Nvidia supply chains following recent tariff exemptions [21].

2025.04. 12 本文字数：280，阅读时长大约1分钟 来源 | 参考消息 据台湾"中时新闻网"4月12日报道，美国海关与边境保护局（CBP）11日悄然发布了更新税则，豁免 了包含自动数据处理器、电脑、通信设备、显示器与模组、半导体相关等类别商品的进口税率，不 受"对等关税"影响。 报道称，部分商品若符合美国《协调关税税则》中所列明的分类号码，将可获得"对等关税"豁免。这 些商品包括电脑与周边设备、半导体制造设备、通信设备、存储设备、显示模组、半导体器件与集成 电路等。 报道称，本次关税豁免适用于所有受特朗普"对等关税"影响的国家。 微信编辑 | 格蕾丝 推荐阅读 新修订《婚姻登记条例》自5月10日起施行 FS 下 ...